Congrats for the great set of numbers. So just wanted to understand on alumina front, if you can throw any guidance on FY '27 production and sales vo lume, both on alumina and aluminium?
So, what is our exposure to Middle East in terms of alumina exp orts? Is there any impact on the sales volume next year?
Thank you for this opportunity. So my question is with respect to our alumina sales volume. So in the last call, we have said that for full year fiscal '26, we will achieve 1,300 KT. And so far in the 9 months, we are already at 1,100 KT. So are we g oing to raise this guidance of sales volume for alumina? In Q3, we have seen a very good jump in alumina sales.
Okay. Understood. Understood. And the second question is with r espect to the chemical, means alumina division profitability, means we have seen a drop in that. One part may be due to because of the fall in the alumina prices. But is there any, apart from the decline in alumina sales realization, is there any inflation from the cost side, especially with respect to caustic soda, which has led to the drop in the EBITDA per to n for the Chemicals division?
Yes. Thank you for the opportunity. So I understand the discussion on the call that you have changed from gigawatt to revenue. And that is well understood. But earlier in the slides, we had guidance of 2 gigawatt from FY '28 onwards, which kind of giving us the kind of sustainability of our business and the kind of maximum capacity which we can reach earlier. But now you have said that 75% growth in FY '27. So post that, what will be our outlook? How shall we look at revenue growth post FY '27? Can we assume that our 2 gigawatt cap acity to execute will be intact or there is some challenges and we can expect that revenue growth will taper down post FY '27? How should we look at?
Fair enough, sir. That is it from my side.
My question is with respect to our financial performance. So in this quarter, we are seeing that revenue from operations on a consolidated basis is staying almost flat on a year-on-year basis despite our Ghatampur plant, 2 units getting operational and cost of fuel consumed is rising. So what is causing this, if you can shed some light on that?
And what about the cost of fuel? I mean there is an increase in that also. Is there anything...
Thank for the opportunity, Sir. My question is on the thermal power tendering and update on the expansion projects. So, first on the Ghatampur Unit II and II, when are we expecting the COD? And related to that, South Pachwara coal block post the CC , grant of CC, when we are expecting the commercial production? And within t hat, what is our status on tendering of Talabira Phas e-I, Phase -II and TPS -II 2 nd expansion?
Okay, sir. Just a follow-up on that, sir, then we also have Rajasthan lignite thermal of 375MW, which is under evaluation. So, is there any progress on that?
So, congrats for the great set of numbers. My question is with regards to under recovery. And in the last call, we said that full year under recovery will be in the range of Rs. 450 Crore. And so what is that amount would be now? And the drop in PLF at the TPS II expansion and NTPL as we progress on that boiler issue, do we expect any improvement on the basis of PLF for these two units going forward and what will be the final under recovery you can expect now for full year?
Coming to Ghatampur, Unit-II and Unit-III, the earlier dates were December and March’25. So, are we sticking to that? And same for Pachwara coal block. Is it on track for March’25? And lastly on this new Patrapara coal mine, if you can share some timeline when it will be developed?
Sir, just one question. What is our capex guidance for FY '27?
And that will be towards which geographical area?
Sir, my question is with respect to the safeguard duty, which was proposed by government. So with the 12% safeguard duty, the downside to the HRC prices is slightly now limited. So does that help us in -- means whatever we see the inventory destocking, restocking. So with the volatility to the downside limited, will it help us going forward because these safeguard duties for the next 3 years? So this is a positive read-through for us? Is that understanding correct?
Understood, sir. And my next question is on the long -term means, you have touched that we may go up to 10 million ton capacity. And in the slides also, we have projected that the structural steel tube market will grow by 10% CAGR by 2030. So means what are the long -term demand drivers? Do we really foresee that this market will go up to that quantum by 2030 means consistent double-digit growth, 10% CAGR from FY '24?
Yes, thanks for the opportunity. Just focusing on FY '27. So, if we just keep aside the factors which are not in our control like geopolit ical scenario and all. So, you have guided previously that we will grow by 15%-20% again in FY'27 over FY'26. So, are we putting any kind of market penetration or SKU addition, new product development which gives us some visibility over that growth in FY'27?
And EBITDA per ton trajectory in that financial year, can we assume it will be north of Rs. 5,000 per ton? See, our ultimate goal is to achieve Rs. 5,500-Rs. 6,000 per ton and on the business model what we have built for 7 million ton capacity and sales volume eventually, this pretty much fits into it. Now the question is that FY '26, we are saying between Rs. 4,600-Rs. 5,000, let's see how second half pans out, right? If volumes grow faster than what we expect because of operating leverage benefits, it could be near about Rs. 5,000 also, but very difficult to say right now because of the uncertainty what we have seen in the first four months of the current financial year. Next year, FY'27 will definitely be better than whatever we close in FY'26.
Thank you for this opportunity. My question is specifically on the guidance on sales volume which we provided in the last quarter for '26 and '27 of 4 and 5 million tons. And if we go with 20% volume growth, this guidance is likely exceeding that. So is it fair to work on these numbers of 4 and 5 million tons of sales volume for '26-'27, or it will be slightly lower than that?
Okay and the jump in the EBITDA per ton for general products from 1970 to 2800 one factor is it because of the drop in the spread between Patra and primary and discounts coming off and will it sustain going forward?
Yes, sir, just one clarification on the residual capex. So, in the last call, if I recall, it was near about 3 billion to 3.5 billion. And now it's 5 billion. So that is for the capacity expansion earlier it was 5 million tons. Now it is 5.5 million tons, right? Is my understanding correct?
That's it from my side. Thank you.
Anubhav, just a few points which I have missed. So, you said 53% capacity utilization on Raipur plant on expanded capacity. So, what is that expanded capacity now ? And residual CAPEX guidance for 25 and for 26?
And on CAPEX guidance for 25 and 26?
So my question is with respect to EBITDA per ton shaping up for FY '26. How do you see that? And this is the context of our value -added product share. So how do you see our VAP share increasing in FY '26 in the context of any market creation? Any visibility on the ground that you see that the VAP share will increase and that will aid our EBITDA per ton going forward?
Will it be fair to assume EBIT DA per ton reaching near INR5,000 per ton in FY '26?
Again, on the battery electric storage front. So I just wanted to understand, we will be just in the EPC part of it, right? We will not be...
Understood. So, see the context is means we have seen the capacity fees for battery electric storage coming down from INR10 lakh per megawatt per month in August '22 to currently, it is almost INR4 lakh per megawatt per month.
My question is on the ferro alloys realization. So it has bucked the trend. So basically, we have seen in this quarter, steel price realizations have fallen, but ferro alloy realizations have improved on a quarter-on-quarter basis. So any outlook on the prices on ferro alloys? And the kind of guidance we have for ferro alloys is slightly less than what we have achieved for FY '25. So we have achieved 1 lakh tons and the guidance is slightly lower at 0.9. So any color on that?
Sure. And sir, the drop in the sponge iron production in this quarter, so have we sold our pellets externally, means directly to the third-party market?
Sir, my question is with regard to this drop in the realization of the pellet. So you alluded to that the pellet capacity coming in the vicinity of Raipur and in Chhattisgarh. So in the medium to long term, structurally, do you see any risk from these pellet plants coming up and putting pressure on the pellet prices structurally going in future? And how easy for someone is to put the pellet plants? Do these pellet plants have the iron ore as a backward integration or people can set up the pellet plant and it can put risk to our pellet price realizations in the future?
Yes, good afternoon. Thanks for the opportunity, sir. Just a clarification from Manav's question previously. So what I understand is that this pellet plant crushing and beneficiation and iron ore mining all will start in tandem from Q1 FY '26, right?
Okay. And is there any ramp-up time for that means how much incremental volumes can we expect from FY '26?
Sir, our guidance on oil and gas is between 95 to 100 Kboepd. And in Q1, we have seen a 17% decline. So, in that context, in the earlier call, we have said that we will see the oil and gas volume will have an upward trajectory from Q2 onwards. So, are we on track for that? And given our efforts on exploration side, so if you can throw some guidance for in the medium term, so how those volumes will ramp up and how we will arrest the decline? So, that is number one.
Yes. Thanks for that detailed explanation. My second question is on power division. So, we have seen a good jump in this quarter. And I if I can see for Meenakshi, the power realizations have stood at a very high level of Rs. 7.2 per kilowatt hour. So, just wanted to understand on Meenakshi and Athena, what is the split between power purchase agreements and spot merchant sales? Because in Q1, we have seen that merchant tariffs have come down in the range of Rs. 3 to Rs. 4 per kilowatt hour. And in that context, Meenakshi’s realization is quite high. So, if you can throw some light on that.
Yes. Thanks for the opportunity. I just want to know currently what is the sourcing mix for bauxite and alumina in terms of captive and third -party? And once the Sijimali Mine comes online, how that mix will change?
Okay. Yes, yes. Thanks for that. Secondly, on the conversion costs in this quarter, we can see on a sequential basis the conversion cost for aluminum has dropped sharply. So in the previous quarter it was $107 per ton, which has come down to $49 this quarter. And just looks structural in nature, so is it sustainable going forward?
Sir, my question is with respect to the capacity expansion, which we are targe ting up to 35 million tons. So can you break it down, means, by FY '28, do we expect any incremental capacity to come on stream? And if you can further break it down in terms of plans, which capacities will come first? A slightly more detailed answer on that.
Okay. And what will be the peak capex? You mentioned -- you've given guidance on '26 capex, but you said that in '27, the capex will peak. So what quantum will be that?