NLC India Limited analyst Q&A

Should we open the floor for questions?

Yes Thank you.

Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press ‘*’ and ‘1’ on their touchtone phone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press ‘*’ and ‘2’ . Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. Again, you may press ‘*’ and ‘1’ to ask a question now. Our first question comes from Mohit Kumar from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.

Sir, good evening and thanks for the opportunity. And congratulations on a very good quarter. My first, Sir, it is heartening to see NLC doing a very good work in thermal, renewables and very new coal mines. My first question is, what are the under recovery on the standalone and consolidated basis in 9 months? And what is the status of NLC that 500 MW which was undergoing a refurbishment?

At the outset, I thank you for the encouraging words. And coming to the under recovery, against the last year's under recovery for the first 9 months of Rs. 725 Crore, this year under recovery is Rs. 517 Crore. And standalone basis, against last year's Rs. 571 Crore, this year is around Rs. 500 Crore.

Understood, sir. And so what is the status of the power plant where we are trying to rectify?

As I told you in the last investor meet, we have taken the short -term measures and the long-term measures for improving the availability and the reliability of our TPS II expansion units. The short -term measures resulted in improvement in the availability and reliability and the long-term modification in one of the units is started in the month of November and that is expected to be completed in the second week of March. So, in the current financial year , the unit will start its operation with improved reliability and availability. And immediately after that, after observing that for a month, we'll be going for the modification in the other unit also. So, once that is also completed, we are hopeful that there will be substantial improvement in the availability, reliability, and performance standard of this TPS II Expansion. And we will be able to substantially reduce our under recoveries going forward.

Understood. Second question sir, what is the status of 1 GW NLC power plant? I think you're looking to start the work. Is it, have you tendered this power plant or can we expect this to be tendered out in the next six months?

This 1 GW, the 2 x 500 MW in Neyveli, we got exemption permission from Central Electricity Authority for going for subcritical lignite. So, we are in fast progress for tendering. We are expecting that by March end, the tender for the power plant will be floated and we are targeting to complete this project at the ea rliest and add to our capacity.

Understood. My last question is on Notes 9 to the account, Notes #9. I think in this quarter you have given an impact of around I think Rs. 400 odd Crore to the profit in this quarter because Notes #9 states that there is a I think CERC issued a tariff order on August 1, 2024 . Is it fair to say that impact is around Rs. 400 Crore on the profit because of this order?

Okay, you are talking about, just wait.

The notes #9 of the result.

The consolidated impact on the revenue is around Rs. 1576 Crore and the positive impact in PBT is Rs. 934 Crore and PAT is Rs. 752 Crore on a consolidated basis for 9 months.

My question on the particular quarter, I think it talks about only one tariff order, right, which was issued for the NTPL subsidiary Company, correct?

Yes.

It has impact for the particular quarter, for this quarter, not for nine months?

It's having positive impact of 647.51 Crore.

Understood, sir. Thank you, sir. Best of luck. Thank you.

Thank you. Next question comes from Aditya Welekar from Axis Securities. Please go ahead. Aditya sir, your line is unmuted. Please proceed with your question.

So, congrats for the great set of numbers. My question is with regards to under recovery. And in the last call, we said that full year under recovery will be in the range of Rs. 450 Crore. And so what is that amount would be now? And the drop in PLF at the TPS II expansion and NTPL as we progress on that boiler issue, do we expect any improvement on the basis of PLF for these two units going forward and what will be the final under recovery you can expect now for full year?

Thanks for your encouraging words and regarding under recovery, there is a substantial improvement in the under recovery of NTPL. You are asking NTPL also. Last financial year it was more than Rs. 154 Crore, but this financial year it is almost Nil, it is only Rs. 7 Crore and this will continue and coming to the under recovery on consolidated basis, again it is last year Rs. 725 Crore, it is now Rs. 517 Crore and we are expecting to land at around Rs. 600 Crore by the end of this financial year . And the actions are already on to reduce it to a great extent in the next financial ye ar. Already , the modification of TPS II Expansion is on.

Coming to Ghatampur, Unit-II and Unit-III, the earlier dates were December and March’25. So, are we sticking to that? And same for Pachwara coal block. Is it on track for March’25? And lastly on this new Patrapara coal mine, if you can share some timeline when it will be developed?

First coming to Pachwara South Coal Block, earlier, we were targeting for March ‘25.

Just give me one moment, let me check, the line for the management seems to have been disconnected. Ladies and gentlemen, please hold on while we reconnect the line for the management back. Ladies and gentlemen, we have the line for the management reconnected. Please go ahead, sir.

Hello. So, can I continue the answer to the question? So, there were thre e questions. One was about Pach wara South Coal Block. The earlier expected production was March 2025. But there was some delay in the forest clearance stage one. That's why now the revised production target is July 2025. We are in the advanced stage of getting the forest clearance of stage two. So, we are hopeful that by July 25, we will be starting production. MDO and all the things are in position and we will be st arting production in July. Coming to Ghatampur, the earlier target for Unit #1 was December, that we completed in December and the unit is performing exceedingly well with more than 98% availability. And Unit-II, we are targeting May 2025 and Unit-III, October 2025. So, before October 2025, all the three units COD will be declared. Coming to new Patrapara South Coal Block, we got it in commercial auction. It is having 12 million metric ton per annum capacity. And the advantage with this block is that this n ew Patrapara block shares its boundary with Machhakata. So, we will be getting advantage of scale. And the government said the target is 55 months, but we are targeting for starting production in 36 months. So, by February 2028, we will be starting production from new Patrapara.

That's very helpful, sir. Just one last question. So, if you can just share the same timelines for our Rajasthan joint venture for 3 x 125 thermal plant and 2000 MW renewable plant and 1000 MW solar plant in Assam. So, for these?

We signed that joint venture agreement with Rajasthan government for both 3 x 125 MW lignite based power station and 2 GW of renewable capacity. This 3 x 125 MW, the activities are on, but the JV formation is in the final stages. Once that is done, then we will go for tendering and we will be completing the project within the next 36 to 40 months. And this 2 GW of renewable capacity , we are already in the process of finalizing the location. So, within next 18 months, once the joint venture is formed, within next 18 months, we'll be adding the entire 2 GW capacity. Similarly, with the state of Assam, we signed a joint venture agreement with them for adding capacity of 1 GW. There also with 12 to 15 months, we will be adding the 1 GW capacity. Already land is identified for substantial capacity addition.

Thank you. Participants, you may press ‘*’ and ‘1’ to ask a question. The next question comes from Rabindra Nath Nayak from Sunidhi Securities. Please go ahead. Mr. Rabindra Nath Nayak, your line is unmuted. Please proceed with your question. As there is no response from the line of the current participant, we'll move on to the next question. The next question comes from the line of Darsh Solanki from Axis Securities. Please go ahead.

Thank you for this opportunity. Mine is more of a bookkeeping question. So, if you look at the financials of this quarter, there is a movement in regulatory deferral income of negative 789, post which our PAT comes to around Rs. 696 Crore. So, for our reference, do we, for our profitability perspective, we look at the PAT after considering that movement, right? So, our normalized PAT would be Rs. 696 Crore. Is th at a correct way to look at it?

Yes.

And sir, so in the same context, so just wanted to understand. So, from a last conference call, our understanding was that for any favorable or unfavorable orders, there are generally two impacts. One impact is in sales and till the level the PTA is upgrade and post that it is adjusted from the regulatory deferral moment for the PAT. So, is that understanding is correct and if not , can you share the view on it that how does that bookkeeping work?

It is correct only , but only some adjustments is required if the regulatory provision is not sufficient to the requirement of the order. So, normally on a conservative basis, we used to create the provision or income whatever is there. So, in case the order amount is different from that, so additional impact will be there. Otherwise, the accounting adjustment, what you are telling, it's correct.

So, in this quarter's context, if there's a negative 789 impact, so approximately a similar amount would be increased in your revenue. Is that the way to look at it?

No, the current quarter you are telling or 9 months?

For the current quarter, so your current quarter regulatory deferral movement is Rs. 789 Crore. So, would that number be then included as a positive impact in the revenue? Is that how it works?

This is adverse impact in the profitability.

No.

So, there's just one impact and it directly adjusted in the profitability?

Yes.

Understood. So, that's it from my side. Thank you.

Thank you. The next question comes from Arihant from Bowhead. Please go ahead.

Hi, sir. My question would be, what was the realization from e-auction and from supply to NTPC, DVC separately? And what was the overall PBT from Talabira coal mine?

So, against last year's e -auction of around 2.5 million metric tons. This year , the coal sale through e-auction is 4.6 million met ric tons. And to NTPC through Mo U route around 4.8 million supplied. And for DVC , they just started taking in the month of January. And the coal that is sent to our NTPL is 2.2 million metric tons. Coming to the sale value in the current financial year is Rs. 1750 Crore against last year's figure of Rs. 1410 Crore. And coming to the PBT figure, the current year 's profit before tax is Rs. 708 Crore against last year's Rs. 601 Crore, but there was one CERC order impact of Rs. 292 Crore, so net PBT for Talabira mines is Rs. 416 Crore against last year's Rs. 601 Crore.

Sir, can you please tell what was the average realization in first 9 months from realization per ton from e-auction and from supply to NTPC?

The average sale price of coal for the first 9 months is Rs. 1,652 per ton against last year figure of Rs. 2,537 per ton.

Okay, so this Rs. 1652 is from e -auction or the overall total e -auction plus supply to NTPC and NTPL?

No, it is through e-auction.

Okay, got it. And what was our realization from supply to NTPC?

The realization from supply to NTPC is Rs. 787 Crore.

I am asking per ton.

Okay, thank you sir. And another question is, are we facing any lignite availability issue or do you think we can face any lignite availability issue next year?

As on date , we are not having any lignite quantity issue. Already all our units are operating at their full capacity. And with the substantial amount of land in our position, we don't foresee any problem in the next financial year also. Some critical land parcel requirement is already being taken up aggressively. So, we don't foresee any immediate loss of generation on account of Lignite shortfall.

Okay, thank you, sir. And one question was regarding we plan on participating in auctions for adding RE capacity. So, I wanted to just understand like, are we focusing only on plain vanilla solar wind projects, or are we targeting to participate in complex RE projects as well?

See, as on date, our capacity is 1.4 GW. And we are targeting to take it to 10 GW, while the entire country is targeting doubling and tripling their capacity. We are targeting to increase our renewable capacity by 7 times. So, we are open to all types of, we are exploring all revenues for adding this capacity. Already 2.5 GW renewable capacity works are already in progress and we are exploring all the possibilities including the J V which we formed with Rajasthan, the J V which we formed with Assam and we are exploring various possibilities to have JV with the Orissa Government also and many other states are also in line. So, we are exploring all the avenues where we can add renewable capacity to reach our target of 10 GW by 2030.

Okay, thank you. Sir, then one last question. I wanted to know regarding 810 MW renewable projects, solar project in Rajasthan. When will that come up? And also regarding Talabira Phase II thermal plant, when are we plannin g to do tender of that project?

This 810 MW won through competitive bidding process from Rajasthan. And the infrastructural developmental works are in the scope of RV UNL and the RVUNL has already floated tender for that. They are in the final stages of award of the infrastructural works and subsequently the PPA will be signed. And we are ready with all the requirement to start the activities there. Once we get the clearance from the Rajasthan government for go ahead, we will start immediately and complete the project within one year period. And coming to the Talabira Stage-II tendering, the Talabira Stage-II, we have applied for the various clearances in fast progress. So, once that is done, we are expecting by June 2025 we will be floating tender for that.

Okay, thank you so much for the reply, sir.

Thank you. A reminder to all the participants, if you wish to register for a question, please press ‘*’ and ‘1’ on your touchtone phone now. Our next question comes from Somnath Saha from B&K Securities India Private Limited. Please go ahead.

Thank you sir for the opportunity. You have just mentioned currently you don't have any challenge for lignite mining. But if I talk about the current quarter, I can see there is around 13% gap in year-on-year loss in lignite production. Can you explain on that reduction on lignite mining?

No, there is no loss on account of lignite quantity in this one, in the current financial year. The last time which we highlighted the loss was January 24. So, after January 24 there is no loss on account of lignite availability.

Okay. So, you are saying the current situation on lignite mine is okay and you don't have challenges in finding a land acquisition?

Exactly.

Okay. Secondly, if I refer Slide # 33, the mention on standalone basis of thermal generation will go up by 3.4 GW till FY2030? Can you help me with the breakup of the same and what you were accounting for? The effects on Talabira, what will come by that time?

The Talabira, the first 800 MW, we will be adding in March 2029. And with a gap of 6 months, we will be adding the other two units also. And the TPS II second expansion, the 1 GW capacity that will be coming in the Financial Year 2 030. So, these are the thermal capacities we are going to add , but we also will be adding 3 x 125 MW by 2030. So, by 2030 , our thermal capacity will increase from the current 4.6 GW to 10 GW.

Okay sir, understood. Sir, another one question from the renewable side. Like earlier we have guided that 300 MW will come this fiscal only. Now seems like that nothing will add in this fiscal. And also, we are targeting to get 10 GW by 2030 long er term vision. But on execution, there is still lags. Can you explain the delay, what causing the delay?

See, as you know, this 300 MW we got under CPSU scheme and the main condition for the CPSU scheme is the modules of domestic nature need to be fitted in this plant of 300 MW. And as you know there is a scarcity of modules in the country. That is the reason why not only NLCIL solar project, many other projects got delayed. We awarded this EPC contract to Tata Power and they started their module manufacturing in the state of Ta mil Nadu. They assigned the production around 80 MWs for this project in the current financial year. All other activities other than modules they are complete. For the entire 300 MW all other activities, inverters, MS structure, everything is ready. Only it is waiting for the modules. So, we are hopeful that in the current financial year, we will be able to add around 80 MW capacity. And in the 1st Quarter of the next financial year, the balance 220 MW will be added.

One last thing sir, during the quarter at consolidated level, there is a one -time impact of Rs. 1,000 Crore in one subsidiary NTPL. So, if I may ask you the rate of that impact, what is your adjusted PAT for the quarter?

The adjusted PAT for the quarter, the impact for NTPL is Rs. 650 Crore positive.

Thank you, sir.

Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Rabindra Nath Nayak from Sunidhi Securities. Please go ahead.

Congratulations for the good set of numbers, Sir. My question regarding this lignite transfer price, what is the transfer price of lignite that you are booking for the power generation in Neyveli right now?

I thank you for your encouraging words for the good numbers. And the Lignite Transfer Price at the Neyveli is Rs. 2,292.

Sir, what is the coal profit booked in this quarter?

The coal profit booked from is mostly from Talabira. It is Rs. 306 Crore booked in the current quarter. And the total is Rs. 416 Crore.

And sir, is there any loss we booked in the Ghatampur plant in the last quarter?

It is a minimal 10 Crore loss we booked there. Otherwise, the unit is performing exceedingly well.

OK Ok So, what is the total under recovery we booked in this quarter?

The under recovery booked this quarter is Rs. 218 Crore on standalone basis.

This is largely due to these two plants that are undergoing refurbishment, right?

Regarding these Assam plants, my worry is that, the solar intensity in that region particularly is low. So, what is your comment you can say that what would be the viability of this project in the State of Assam where the solar intensity is very low compared to other regions. So, you comment on that?

As you rightly said, the solar intensity is, if you compare with the other states like Rajasthan and Gujarat, it is lower and accordingly the CUF also will be lower. So, that is the reason we pursued for the cost -plus tariff with Assam. So, whatever plants we are installing there, the tariff will be determined by CERC on cost plus basis. That is the reason we are going forward and it is viable.

Okay, because I am asking in the context that around significant renewable capacity still is asking from buyers. So, on that context whether the project will be viable because already the capacity is there instead of having the capacity in a low solar intensity place, we can supply the power from other place to Assam. So, that is why I am asking the viability of the project?

But the problem is that , if we transmit solar power from high intensity zone like Rajasthan and Gujarat to Assam, the transmission system infrastructure itself is not sufficient, and it will be very costly. So, considering all those things, the localized solar plants are always good. And because of the cost-plus tariff, financially the project is viable and can generate revenue.

Okay. So, what is the average tariff difference you can expect from Assam? If at all we set up a plant there and also start generating, what is the tariff difference in Rajasthan and Assam?

Exactly we cannot say, but in Rajasthan the CUF can be ranging from almost 30% to 32%. The plant which we are envisaging in Rajasthan, 600 MW, there we are expecting CUF of 32%. Whereas in the state of Assam with the latest modules also, it may cross 22% to 25%. So, exactly it is very difficult to quantify the tariff difference, but there will be some difference in the tariff.

Okay, you mean to say including a transmission price, the tariff will be viable for Assam?

Exactly, because it has to cross almost 1500 kilometers if it has to come from Rajasthan. So, it will be viable in the state of Assam.

No, see from any region of the country if it has to be transmitted to Assam, there will be huge transmission charges. So, the setting up of the solar plant there is a good option and if we are getting the cost-plus tariff there, that is more potential.

Ok sir, regarding this NLC Green, what is the status on the QIP sir? About the IPO, what is the status there?

See, the major hurdle for that activity to move forward is the exemption from Government of India for the bulk transfer of the assets from NLCIL to NIRL and we got that tax exemption within five months period where the same thing happened earlier almost 1.5 years to 2 years. So, we are hopeful, we are taking all the activities in the fast forward mode, and we are hopeful that by the 1st Quarter of FY 2026-27 or the last quarter of the Financial Year 2025-26, we will be able to come up with the IPO.

Okay. Thank you and all the best. Thank you.

Thank you. Before we take the next question, a reminder to all the participants, you may press ‘*’ and ‘1’ to ask a question. Our next follow -up question comes from the line of Arihant from Bowhead. Please go ahead.

Sir, I wanted to know what would be our estimated regulated equity by 2030 and also can you please provide breakup of what was the under recovery from TPS-II Expansion and TPS-II plant in 9 months FY’25?

See, our current regulated equity is Rs. 9,383 Crore, around Rs. 5,900 Crore in Thermal and Rs. 3,450 Crore in Mines, and with the CAPEX plan we are having and the capacity addition program we are having, the regulated equity by 2030 will be more than Rs. 19,000 Crore.

What was the under recovery from TPS -II Expansion and TPS -II plant in 9 months FY’25?

In 9 months FY’25, the TPS-II Expansion the under recovery is Rs. 300 Crore that is mainly because of the last 3 months where the modification activity is going on and from TPS-II, the under recovery is around Rs. 200 Crore.

Okay. And Sir, please can you clarify again regarding IPO timeline, when do you expect it to happen?

Okay, got it sir and just one last question sir. When do you expect the JV Company to be formed for a 2 GW solar project? By when you think the Company will be formed?

That is the Company formation is in the final stages. So, anytime we can expect that, we can expect in next one-month period.

Okay, and after that you said that you will take 18 months to complete the projects once the Company is formed?

15 to 18 months for adding 2 GW capacity of renewables and 36 to 40 months for adding 3 x 125 MW Lignite based power capacity.

Thank you so much, sir.

Thank you. The next follow up question comes from the line of Aditya Welekar from Axis Securities. Please go ahead.

Thanks for the opportunity again, sir. So, if you can just come again on the pipeline for our renewable energy capacity addition for FY25, FY26 and FY27?

Okay. As on date, we are having 1.4 GW capacity, and we are every year producing around 2.2 billion units of green power. And we are having target to take this 1.4 GW to 7 times, 10 GW by 2030. To achieve this capacity addition target, we are having many projects in the pipeline. We are having these 300 MW near our Barsingsar plant, which is on the verge of commissioning because of the domestic modules it is getting delayed. But by 1st Quarter of the next financial year, it will be completed. Then 600MW renewable capacity we are adding in the Khavda solar park in Gujarat. There all the activities are in fast progress. We are expecting by the third quarter of the next financial year, the 600 MW will be commissioned. And also works are in progress in 810 MW in Rajasthan, in Pugal district , and there, the infra structural activities are in progress by RVNL. So, once that is completed, then within next 15 months we will be able to add this capacity. So, this capacity is expected in 2026-27. And in return to that, already we discussed about the 2 GW renewable capacity which we are adding in the state of Rajasthan. So, this also within next 15 months to 18 months this capacity will be added and in Assam that 1 GW capacity that also will be added in the next 2 -year period. So, almost 2.5 GW projects are work-in-progress and 3 GW works are already in pipeline and that will facilitate us to reach to 10 GW capacity by 2030.

That is only for Assam. Otherwise in all other projects, it is a competitive derived tariff. But particularly whenever a renewable project is selected by NLCIL, we consider RoE of around 12% , a nd because that is calculated some conservatively taking all the margins, so almost we get a return of around 14% like what we get from our Mines as well as Thermal. So, it's almost 14% to 15% returns we get from renewables also.

Understood. Thanks a lot.

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Prateek Singh from DAM Capital. Please go ahead.

Hi, Sir. So, just wanted to get a sense about the various diversification projects that we have been talking about. I think the first one to come was OB to Sand - Phase I, II, and III. Have we started any pilot projects there, or any kind of research studies, or are they still a few years away for us? And the same goes for critical minerals, so far 1 million tons that I think was our vision. How do we stand there?

This OB to Sand, there is a huge potential of M -sand in the Neyveli area. So, already one project worth 0.4 million metric tons is already ready for operation and all the activities are completed and we are on the verge of starting the commercial operation. One OB to Sand of 1 million metric ton capacity is already awarded and works are in fast progress. I think in next 6 months period we will be able to start the production from this 1 million metric ton also. And coming to the critical minerals, as you know, to use our experience of almost 60 years in opencast mining, we are interested to entering into critical mineral block auction and we participated in two rounds of critical mineral auction, but because of lesser number of participants in the bidding process, the bidding was annulled. So, we are participating in the current critical mineral block auction, and we are hopeful that we will be getting some critical mineral blocks in the current auction.

Thank you, sir. Anything on green hydrogen or battery energy or they are still quite far away?

No, as you know, NLCI L is the first Company in the country to establish battery storage system in the state of Andaman , and that is successfully running. And earlier Andaman was relying on diesel -based power generation. Now the solar power generation, green power generation is facilitating the improvement in environment in Andaman. And coming to this green hydrogen, we are i n the process of setting up a pilot project in Neyveli. Already the green power requirement is met through the solar plant already commissioned, 4 MW. So, we are in the process of procurement of electrolyzer, and we are hopeful that the earliest we will be able to establish the pilot project for green hydrogen.

Thank you, sir. And the last one, just wanted to get a sense as to when we say overburden sand, what kind of sand is it? Like sand can be used for, I understand, glass, automobile glass or even solar glasses. So, is there any specific sand?

It is M-Sand. So, for construction purpose the normal sand is used from the river beds and there is scarcity of that type of sand that is affecting the construction industry in the country. This M -sand is converting the overburden by following the washing process. So, this overburden consists of the sand of around 50% to 60%. So, that is separated and that can be used for the construction purpose and this is having huge demand. So, this will also reduce the environmental impact because this will replace the river sand, and this is having huge demand in the market.

Understood. So, we will be targeting construction sector basically.

Exactly.

Understood. Thanks a lot for answering my questions.

Thank you. Participants, you may press ‘*’ and ‘1’ to ask a question. Our next follow- up question comes from Somnath Saha from B&K Securities. Please go ahead.

Thanks for the opportunity, Sir. Can you please help me with the breakup of regulated equity currently on standalone versus your NTPL and NUPPL?

Regulated equity?

Yes, sir. How much is it currently on standalone basis?

In our total regulated equity in Thermal is Rs. 5,931 Crore, and this is minus NUPPL. Standalone Neyveli total lignite thermal regulated equity is Rs. 3,983 Crore.

Okay and the remaining for NTPL?

Yes. Thank you very much, sir.

Thank you. As there are no further questions from the participants, I now hand the conference over to the management for closing comments.

I thank all the investors for their outstanding support to the Company. And I thank all the participants in today's investors call for giving encouragement to the team NLCIL and at the same time, giving valuable suggestions. I assure that whatever commitments we have given and the timelines we have given, we will be putting all the efforts to ensure that these commitments are met and increase the returns to the investors. Thank you. Thank you all.

Thank you. On behalf of DAM Capital, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.