Adani Energy Solutions Limited analyst Q&A

Thank you. The first question comes from the line of Mohit with ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.

Hi, and good afternoon, sir. And thanks for the opportunity. My first question is on the transmission pipeline. I think you mentioned INR 96,000 crores in the press release. Does it include both the HVDC, Khavda-Olpad, and there is one South Kalamb, or is it excluding both these HVDC?

So, it is excluding the Khavda Olpad, but including South Kalamb.

So Olpad reverse auction happened. We were L1 and we are expecting a response from the PFC. So, probably the delay was because of holidays, but now we can expect a response from the PFC in the current week.

Okay, understood. So, my second question is on the smart meter. I think last year, there had been no bidding in the first half, right? And there was one Tamil Nadu bid which was pending. And also in the press release, you're talking about 104 million smart meters, which is still pending. So, have you seen any improvement in the tender bidding, or are there any other bid apart from Tamil Nadu which is up for tendering? And what is the status of Tamil Nadu bid?

So, Tamil Nadu bid submission was concluded. The technical evaluation is going on. The other bids, especially Telangana and Karnataka, because they will have to get their metering program approved under RDSS. Earlier, they never submitted that proposal. I believe that they have now submitted it, and it is under approval. So , the moment that approval comes in, then they will come out with a bidding.

So, is it right to understand that earlier, Karnataka was trying to do something on their own, and now they are trying to get it under RDSS? Is that right?

Correct, correct.

Understood. My last question is on the commissioning pipeline for transmission. I think we're expecting, especially HVDC, to get commissioned by October. Are you facing some kind of constraint or some kind of issues in general in the industry, maybe right of way, etc? Can you just throw some light on that?

So, the right of way and ability of skilled manpower is the problem. But as I explained in the last call as well, we do a little different approach as far as the right of way is concerned. While we use the government machinery and the power available under Sections 68 and 164, but we also directly negotiate with the farmer or landowner, and we run that process parallelly. As far as the manpower is concerned, so now we have developed that kind of relationship with those EPC players. You must have seen that we work with a few chosen EPC players. And this year, we have taken a very unique initiative by starting our own training facility. It is going to be online from 1st of November this year. We will be training about 1200 people for transmission line erection. And with that, all of our requirements should be met. In fact, we will train these people and give it to our EPC partners.

Understood, sir. And any clue on the HVDC project commissioning date, sir, timeline? Is it December '25?

Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Manish Somaiya with Cantor Fitzgerald. Please go ahead.

A couple of questions, KP and Kunj al. Can you elaborate on parallel licensing opportunities beyond Mumbai? What circles are you targeting and what's the competitive landscape? That's question number one.

Yes. So, Manish, we at AESL are open for both the routes of expanding into distribution, which is either privatization or parallel license. We applied for parallel license for Navi Mumbai, Mundra area, as well as Ghaziabad or Jewar district in the UP. The regulatory process for Navi Mumbai and Mundra part is over. We are expecting order from Regulatory Commission very soon because all those proceedings have been done. So, we expect some movement on parallel license from these two geographies. And as far as competition and parallel license is concerned, so parallel license is open for anyone. But in Mundra, nobody else has applied . In Navi Mumbai, the other players have also applied, but their process just got initiated. And practically, I believe that once you have two distribution companies, I think interest by third distribution company will reduce significantly in any particular geography.

Okay, that's helpful. And then just turning to smart metering, I did see that the installation rate was down this quarter sequentially. Maybe if you can just quickly touch on that, and I'm not sure if it was because of the monsoons or the availability of talent in the field. But just on a big picture basis, you outlined a very significant untapped opportunity for smart meter in the country. So, maybe if you can just kind of help us understand the addressable opportunity for AESL over the next three to five years. And from a market share perspective, what would be the constraints?

So, Manish, you are right. The installation rate reduced in the last quarter as compared to the quarter one. But essentially, that was because of rains continuing even till now. And geographies like Maharashtra, Uttarakhand, Assam, and even Bihar this year witnessed a lot of rain that impacted the progress. But now we are catching up again. We have already reached to 20,000 installations as of now. We want to push it up to 30,000 installations per day. All the resources are lined up accordingly, and all the materials and manpower are available for achieving 30,000. As far as the addressable market is concerned, there is about 10 crores smart metering opportunity that we think that will come in a year or so. Essentially from Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, and Punjab. These are the main geographies from where we expect smart metering opportunity to come.

So, Manish, our market share is about 18 -19% in terms of orders, our installation market share is about 23-24% and we will continue to have that kind of better installation rate as compared to all other players. And as we add new geography, probably we'll be able to increase both market share in terms of contract as well as in terms of installation.

Okay, that's super helpful. And just lastly, quickly for Kunjal, leverage is at 4.4 x at the end of second quarter. And I think KP, going back to your earlier comments, you mentioned that the earnings are going to be second half weighted. So, would it be fair to assume that the leverage by the end of the year should be lower, maybe closer to the lower end of your target?

Yes, you're right. So basically, it would be in that range of around 4x what we've always mentioned.

Okay, super. Well, congratulations again on a good quarter.

Sure. Thank you.

Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Puneet Gulati with HSBC. Please go ahead.

Yes, thank you so much. And my first question is on the transmission side of the business. What do you see as a potential bidding pipeline for the second half of this year and how aggressive you are likely to go in this phase?

So, Puneet, probably we will not be able to give you a very precise number for bidding pipeline for second half. But in next 1 year to 1.5 year the projects which have been identified by CTU, and the central government are of the order of INR 90,000 crores. There could be addition from a few states as well, like Maharashtra. So nearly INR 80,000 crores to INR 90,000 crores of bidding opportunity or pipeline will be there in transmission.

Okay. And what share do you assume for yourself?

So currently, we are operating at about 25% and we would like to continue to have that kind of market share.

Understood. And on the cooling side, how is the response so far and where else do you see the opportunity?

So cooling, Puneet, it is not only -- in fact, we spend a lot of time on creating market and awareness for the cooling solution because so far it is not very known concept in the Indian market. We have been interacting with a lot of players including sector federations , industry bodies and other players. We see now a lot of traction on the cooling side as well. In the first half we could also get a LOI from two third party developers for developing a district cooling plant. And we see a humongous potential as far as district cooling is concerned in India. So, we'll continue to work on developing market and making market aware about the advantage of having a district cooling solution.

Understood. And lastly, if you can talk about any updates on the UP side on privatization of Discom, what are the dates likely and how big is the opportunity you see for yourself?

So, there is no specific update from the UP side, but they continue to mention that they will come out with RFP very soon. So, we are eagerly waiting for that. We believe that they had a few conversations with the regulatory commission. They had certain queries and suggestions. So probably they are incorporating it and then they will come out with RFP.

Okay, that's helpful. Thank you so much and all the best.

Thank you.

Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Nikhil Nigania with Bernstein. Please go ahead.

Hi, thank you for taking my question. My first question is on the distribution side. Good to hear an update on the parallel licensee bid. But now that the draft electricity regulatory changes are out, wanted to hear your thoughts on how do you see this sp ace evolve going forward in terms of new opportunity for AESL in distribution?

So, Nikhil, the new draft also says and clearly the intent of government is there that they wanted to increase private sector participation in distribution. They are in fact further proposing to provide enabling provision for second license. In fact, the curr ent legal provision says that you have to create your own network when you become a second license. The draft amendment proposed that the second license, new licensee can use existing distribution network of the existing licensee as well. So, it is clearly a good sign for the distribution sector, and it will create a lot of opportunity for private sector players.

Got it. Understood. So, in a way, is it fair to assume it could open up opportunities for you to enter new cities without having to deploy your own capex?

So, Nikhil, our view is a little different. We might not use existing network of our distribution company because we believe that the major differentiation between you and the incumbent distribution company would be reliability of supply and quality of servic es. Now the moment you ride on the existing network, probably you might not be able to differentiate on those two aspects. So, we might go ahead with our own network as it is provided in the current regulation.

Understood. Very clear. My second set of questions on the transmission side. AESL has been winning quite a fair bit recently, especially in the HVDC projects. What would you say is the reason for that? Is it just that the competitors' hands are full or is there something else, which is the reason? And secondly, on transmission, you highlighted right-of-way as a challenge. But the March regulations were expected to ease that with higher compensation for right -of-way. But has that not been the trend? So, these were two questions I had on transmission?

So, to answer your first question, probably I may not be able to comment as to why Power Grid is not able to take. But I can certainly comment on why we are in a position to take. We have been able to establish that kind of relationship with those major OEMs. And the last particular project, which was Khavda Ol pad. In fact, in this particular area, we are already doing four projects. So, we exactly know the terrain, the ROW challenges in this particular area. That is the reason why we have been able to take this HVDC project through bidding.

Got it. And the second question, if you could answer as well, right -of-way, the things have not improved despite higher compensation norms?

So, right-of-way, all the required legal framework is now in place. So, after last year's policy intervention from Government of India, most of the state has notified that the policy for right - of-way. Essentially, these policies are targeting to give fair compensation to the landholder. To use this policy framework, you have to go through that process of getting order issues from collectors. That also involves public hearing. And sometimes that process takes time. So, as I mentioned earlier in the call, what we do is we use both the routes parallelly. We directly negotiate with the farmers, take a decision on the ground and immediately implement it. And also, wherever we have a problem of ROW, then we use that route which is through collector and collector order compensation. And if the situation worsens, then we use that state machinery and police protection for ROW. But basically, it's a hybrid concept. We don't depend on one route because that could take a lot of time.

Makes sense. The last question I had was, there's this news on Adani Group's tie-up with Google for a data center. Any role you envisage for AESL also in this opportunity?

Yes. So, probably we will have an opportunity for AESL in terms of providing energy solutions and timely connectivity. Because like what we did last time as well for Microsoft, when they were developing a data center, we created connectivity in infra for them. Similarly, we will also have an opportunity of creating infra for connectivity and also provide energy solutions to data center. Because they will certainly be very, very keen to have energy solution which is predominantly coming from a green power.

Correct. Thank you. Those are my questions. Thank you for answering them.

Thank you. Next question comes to the line of Love Sharma with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Hi, management. Thank you for the time. Just wanted to understand two things. I think you mentioned about the AEML's plan for the bond buybacks which you've done and the cash surplus you're running. If you could just give some broad numbers for AEML in terms of what is the debt outstanding currently, including any short -term debt which has b een repaid or may be increased. Secondly, what kind of future buybacks we can think of on that line? And second question would be on the capex addition for second half. What is the target across the different businesses?

Sure. So, on the AEML debt position, so that company continues to delever it. Last quarter, we did $44 million of bond buyback of GMTN bond. Earlier, we did close to $49.5 million bond buyback in Q1 of the 2030. And earlier, if you recall, we had done $120 million of bond buyback. \ So based on that, whatever surplus that that company is generating, we would continue to go down that path of continuing to do the bond buybacks in AEML. Plus, you would see is that whatever short -term working capital also AE ML had and.so we carried about INR 400-odd crores of short -term loan in AEML that also got paid down during the first half year. So that business will continue to delever based on whatever surplus it generates. On the capex front, that company has roughly around INR1600-odd crores of capex planned, of which INR575 crores has been incurred during first half and roughly around INR1000 crores would get incurred during the second half. Generally, you would know that it is always lopsided in the second half, because the first three or four months, that is June, July, August are predominantly monsoon months where the capex rate is not high. So, it's lopsided in the second half. So, INR 1600 crores would be the estimated capex for the full year for distribution AEML.

Yes, that's right. So, this was only for distribution, right? How about for the AESL on consolidated basis, maybe?

So, total capex would be of the order of INR 17,000 crores to INR 18,000 crores. INR 6,000 crores we have done so far. The breakup of INR 6,000 crores is INR 3,350 crores in transmission, INR 700-odd crores in distribution and INR 2,000-odd crores in smart metering. For the full year, we will do about INR11,400 crores in transmission, INR1,600 crores in distribution and INR4,000 crores in smart metering. So, in smart metering, we'll add about INR 2,000 crores. In Distribution, we'll add about INR1,100 crores in the second quarter. And in transmission, we'll add about INR 8,000 crores in the second quarter.

Understood. Thank you, sir. Okay, so this is very useful. And one last question from you was, I think on the dollar bond side, we have this maturity coming up next year for the transmission 2026 bonds. Any thoughts currently of how you're planning to take care of that refinancing?

Yes. So, we are working towards it. And basically, we would like to refinance it. I mean, there are various sources. It could be both a mix of dollar bonds, and rupee bonds. But we would refinance it much ahead of its maturity.

Okay, thanks, Kunjal. In terms of pricing, could you indicate for if we have to go for INR pricing, what kind of pricing you see currently for those assets?

So, as you know, these are AA+ rated in the Indian market. So accordingly, it would get priced.

Yes, basically, currently, if you look at it, A A+ plus or AAA+ bonds are generally priced sub 8%. So, in that region, it would get priced.

Okay, wonderful. Thank you so much.

Thank you. Next question comes on the line of Vishal Biraia with Bandhan AMC. Please go ahead.

Hi, a couple of questions. One is on the status of license at Navi Mumbai, because the public hearing was done and all the formalities were completed by MERC. So, what is holding it back?

Can you be a bit louder? We couldn't hear you.

Sorry, my question was on Navi Mumbai license area. The formalities by MERC, it seems were completed in terms of public hearing and others. So, what is holding back the license? Is there anything else that is pending?

So now they have to issue, the matter was closed for order. So now they have to issue an order against our application.

Okay. And what is the kind of capex that you foresee in this license area over the next few years once you get the license?

The capex for Navi Mumbai?

Yes, sir.

So, we will have a capex of about INR10,000 crores for Navi Mumbai entire area, which will span over about 5 years.

Okay. INR2,000 crores per year will be the capex there, only in Navi Mumbai?

Correct.

But that seems to be substantially higher, right? I mean, Mumbai capex itself is about INR1600 crores, though you will have to put the network fully there, which is not available here.

So, the density-wise it is little lower as compared to Mumbai. And the second is because we will have to fulfill the universal service obligation. What we have proposed is that we will bifurcate the entire area into 25 circles. And once we start investing into that circle, we will fully deploy the network in that entire circle. So, every customer will have access to our network in that particular area. Once we achieve the universal service obligation in that entire circle, we will migrate to the second one. So, therefore the speed will be lower. But it is essential to ensure that universal service obligation is achieved circle-wise.

So, the commercial and industrial consumption there in Navi Mumbai currently is in excess of 50%. The rest is from small LT customers and residential customers.

And on the transmission side, what will be the kind of project that you plan to commission this year? And what will be the addition to gross block that we should see? In addition to the three projects that you've done in the first quarter for the balance 6 months, what should we see? Thank you.

So, in the next half, we will capitalize about INR10,000 crores of capex. So at least we will commission three projects. We are trying to get the fourth project also commissioned in the next quarter, but we'll at least commission three projects which will add revenue of about INR1,700 to INR1,800 crores.

Okay. Thank you very much. I'll come back in the queue. Thank you.

Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Dhruv Muchhal with HDFC AMC. Please go ahead.

Thank you so much. In the opening comments, you mentioned that the capex for this year will be about INR17,000-INR18,000 crores and revenue run rate of that or EBITDA run rate of that will be about INR 2,800 crores. So, this is the capex number probably that gets capitalized over the next two years and then the EBITDA run rate will be realized. What do you capitalize this year? The EBITDA run rate for that would be how much, sir?

So, this year we'll capitalize in transmission projects close to around INR15,000 odd crores, which will translate to additional tariff of INR1,800 or INR1,900 odd crores, which is only in transmission business. Similarly, in case of AEM L or distribution business, whatever capex is incurred is capitalized. So INR1,500, INR1,600 odd of capex will translate into a EBITDA of around INR 250 to INR 275 odd crores. And in smart meter based on its capex will give INR 800 odd crores of additional revenues. So that itself would translate, into INR1,800-1900 crores for transmission, INR250- 230 crores for distribution, INR 800 for smart meters will give INR 2,800 odd crores of EBITDA from the INR17,000 odd crores of capitalization that we will do in each of these years.

And just to clarify, in that INR1,800 crores-1,900 crores transmission number, the tariff from already commissioned projects, which is INR230 odd crores is not included. So, in total, INR ~2,100 odd crores in transmission in terms of tariff or revenue.

This was excluding. Okay, perfect. Got it. So, the second question was on the capex in the transmission business. So, for the full year, you're expecting about INR10,000 odd crores, INR11,000 odd crores capex. First half you have done about INR3,000. So that's about INR7,000 for the remaining 2H

So, first half was about INR 3,300 crores. And in the next half, we will do capex of about INR 7,000-8,000 crores. And in terms of capitalization, we did about INR2300 crores of capitalization in the first quarter. And in the second, we will do capitalization of about INR13,000.

Yes, so the capex is a significant increase. So, for the second half, you will do about INR7,000- 8,000 crores in transmission capex versus last year second half, you had done about INR 4,000 crores. So that's a significant jump in the capex run rate. And if I see 1H versus -- this year versus 1H last year, the jump is not as strong. So just trying to understand what's driving this. This year was weak because of monsoon or right of way issues. And you expect things to resolve in the next second half. So just trying to understand what drives the confidence that this capex can be achieved.

So, this year, you must have noted that we have started another four projects where now, so all the approvals and other things are in place. So , now you will see a lot of capex deployment i n those newly started projects. And we will also continue to do capex in the projects which are already under construction, which are getting commission in the second half or in the first half of the next year. So, because the number of projects has increased and those projects will start to see the infusion of capex and therefore you see that number increasing significantly in second half.

Got it. So basically, the momentum on projects is picking up and hence, which is driving the capex also, the improvement in the capex run rate.

Correct.

Alright. And the other question was on, probably a bit macro, but just trying to understand, so we are seeing a broader electrical demand in India remaining very weak. For example, in October, the demand is at a month -to-date basis, is down by about 5 odd percent. And this includes the Diwali period also. So, because you operate a lot of discoms, on ground level, what are you seeing? Is it just purely weather? I'm just trying to understand what's driving such weakness in demand.

So, in our view, the demand sluggishness this year is only because of the rain, which is not only widespread across the country, but the rain started from May, and it is still continuing. In fact, it was raining in the Western India yesterday and today, and you must have seen that prediction of cyclone on the east coast. So, the demand sluggishness in the country currently is only because of rain.

So even in Bombay, for example, probably it's a bit difficult to digress, but say, for example, commercial customers, I'm assuming they will not be as impacted by the season. The demand trend is reasonably okay versus, say, for example, if you differentiat e between domestic customers and commercial customers.

So, Mumbai, in last couple of years, we see demand growth of the order of 5.5 % to 6%. This year, you must have seen the number, the increase is only 2 percentage. And that was only because of the weather.

Got it. Perfect. This is helpful. And the last question, you mentioned about the data center that the group has signed, and you can play a role in that. Can you quantify what is the monetizable opportunity for us here? Because what we heard is globally large capex numbers. So just wanted to understand what role can we play and what monetizable opportunity can we have?

I mean it's too early to put a number to any opportunity for that Google contract, which is there in data center. I mean, as we earlier mentioned, whatever demand would be there for transmission or substation requirement for that would be fulfilled by AESL. But currently, it's very early for us to put any number to it.

Got it. Sure. Great, sir. Thank you so much and all the best. Thanks.

Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Mahesh Patil with ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.

My first question is on the smart meters. So out of the 73 lakh smart meters installed, how much smart meter quantity has been billed, the meters that have achieved operational goal?

So out of 73 lakh meters, which have been installed, the meter months which have been built are 279 lakh meters which have been built for this first half.

No, but what are the number of meters commissioned?

73 lakhs have been commissioned, and out of that 67 lakhs have been billed.

So, what happens when you install the smart meter, you also have to then offer for a testing to distribution company. That usually happens every month. So, you will see a difference of meter installed and commission of the order of installation equivalent to one month.

Okay. Got it. And so, my second question is on the status of this Bhadla-Fatehpur -HVDC project that had won. If you can share some insights as to what is the progress, there?

Bhadla-Fatehpur, we already got that SPV, LOI, we have finalized all the contracts. In fact, the construction work has already begun at the Bhadla land. We will also start transmission line erection activity in the next month itself.

Okay. And so, my last question, given the kind of capex that we are planning, is there any plan for a fundraise in the near future?

No, there is no such plans of any fundraise except for whatever debt which we have to take for the projects which we are at under construction stage. And of course, refinance.

Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Shrinidhi with ASK Investment Managers . Please go ahead.

Hi. Thank you for the opportunity. A couple of questions on smart meter. So, given high profitability in their business and accounting standards, would it be possible to share cash, post- tax cash profit that we will be making per meter per month? And the second question is across the entire portfolio, what sort of unlevered IRR you are likely to make?

Sure. So, basis the current tariff profile that our smart meter portfolio has , our current revenue per meter per month is in the range of INR105 to INR109 per meter per month. That portfolio gives us close to around 80 % to 85% EBITDA margins. So, based on the meters that we have installed, we have reported an EBITDA of around INR253 crores and EBIT of INR120 crores for this half year. And based on the current EBITDA margins, and based on the capital deployment in those smart meters, our internal returns are upwards of 20%-25% on a levered basis.

Okay. Yes. Those are my questions. Thank you for answering them.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, as there are no further questions, we have reached the end of the question and answer session. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Kunjal Mehta for closing comments.

Sure. No, I would thank each one of you for taking out the time for attending this call. In case of any clarification that you need, we are just a phone call away or an email away. Thank you once again for taking out the time.

Thank you. On behalf of Adani Energy Solutions, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.