Adani Power Limited

FY2026 Q2

2025-10-30 Transcript PDF
Moderator

Thank you very much. We will now begin with the question- and-answer session. Our first question comes from the line of Manish Somaiya from Cantor Fitzgerald & Company. Please go ahead.

Cantor Fitzgerald & Company

Thank you, gentlemen. Congratulations. A couple of questions. One, if you can just talk about the expectations on the merchant and PPA tariff realizations in the second half given softness in merchant pricing that we have seen so far? If you can just give us a big picture perspective on how we should think about the second half versus the first half?

Dilip Jha

Good afternoon, Manish. As regards to PPA rates are concerned, there will not be any change in the PPA rates because the rates are long -term rates. And if the demand is less, it is only impacting the off -take. So, there is no different expectation as regards to rates of the PPA s are concerned. We have achieved average realization of Rs. 5.70 per unit during this quarter and we expect the same rate will continue to be realized , because under the PPA rates are not getting much changed. As regards to merchant realization, we have achieved Rs. 5.37 per unit as the rate during Q2 FY26. For the balance period, we are expecting an average realization of around l Rs. 6 or so, which used to be the rate over the last few years. Thank you.

Cantor Fitzgerald & Company

On the PPAs portion itself, I think right now it is at 88%. S BK, are there any plans to try to increase that so hence to avoid the volatility in pricing? And how do you think about that?

S. B. Khyalia

As I explained in my speech, we have recently signed a medium term PPA with Maharashtra DISCOM for 5 years at the rate of Rs. 5.55 per unit, and we have now recently received one LOI from the state of Karnataka at Rs. 5.78 per unit. We have already tied up the amount what we said earlier around 1 ,100 MW. So, if I consider the overall portfolio, I think now it must be working out to be around 91%. We are taking the steps to tie up more and more capacity under long term or medium term PPA s, so that we can reduce the volatility impact. Thank you.

Cantor Fitzgerald & Company

That is super helpful. I was trying to get to that 92 %-93% and hopefully with more PPAs, it will be higher. So I appreciate that answer. The other question I have is on the CAPEX. Obviously, you have a significant pipeline, locked in pipeline. How should we think about CAPEX in 26 and beyond 26? And how should we also think about the funding mix between internal and external? Thank you.

Dilip Jha

So far as our CAPEX program is concerned, we are generating a significant portion of cash flow from our operating assets. We will fund a significant portion from our internal accruals. Over the next 2- 3 years, there will be an interim bridge requirement for the CAPEX, which we will take from market in the mix of short term and long term from the domestic capital market or domestic banks . So a significant portion will be funded from our internal accruals only. We will fund the interim gap from the market, and that is, a mix of domestic capital market and domestic banks.

S. B. Khyalia

Thank you, Manish.

Moderator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Abhinav from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.

Abhinav Nalawade

Yes, Good Evening, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. My first question is on the Assam bid. Has the bid for 3.2 GW been floated, what is the status over there?

S. B. Khyalia

The bids have been concluded and we are the L1 party there. The approval of the commission has also been received. So we hope that we should get a positive communication shortly. For the time being, whatever is in the public domain is that the commission has passed the order.

Abhinav

Understood. Thank you. The second question is, can you share the revenue , EBITDA, PAT numbers for the two acquired plants, Coastal and Amarkantak in H1?

Dilip Jha

Our revenue for Quarter 2, for Mahan was Rs. 1,049 crores; Tuticorin was Rs. 677 crores ; a nd Korba , Rs. 339 crores. If you talk about EBITDA, for Tuticorin, this quarter EBITDA was Rs. 54 crores, for Korba, it was Rs. 84 crores and for Mahan, it was Rs. 521 crores. Let me repeat it once more. For Mahan, revenue for the quarter was Rs. 1,049 crores as against EBITDA, Rs. 521 crores. For Tuticorin, revenue Rs. 677 crores and against EBITDA, Rs. 54 crores. Korba, revenue Rs. 339 crores and EBITDA, Rs. 84 crores. Here I am talking about operating revenue from the plant. Thank you.

Abhinav

Got it, sir. Thank you.

Moderator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Shiro m Kap ur with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Shirom Kapur

Thank you. So as I was saying, you mentioned about 17 GW of bids at various stages. Could you maybe break that up into which states are offering these bids and if you could just quantify that state-wise?

S. B. Khyalia

The bids are in the public domain. Rajasthan is 3,200 MW, Uttarakhand, it is 1,320 MW, Maharashtra, 1 ,600 MW, Uttar Pradesh, 4 ,000 MW a nd West Bengal, 2,260 MW. So, it is 12000 MW. Apart from that, there are bids which are at an advanced stage of finalization. Karnataka, 1,600 MW, Gujarat, 4,000 MW and Assam, 3,200 MW. So if we take the latest figures, the total is working out around 22 ,000 MW rather than 17,000 MW, because recently, Gujarat has floated a bid of 4,000 MW, which was not included in the earlier figures I quoted. So the approximate figure working out is 22,000 MW. Thank you.

Shirom Kapur

Thank you. That is very helpful. I just want to clarify. So in your presentation, you mentioned that about 91% of your operational capacity is tied up under PPAs. And if we see in the later pages, about 8.5 GW of the upcoming capacity is also tied up. Is it a correct figure that totally out of your 42 GW target, about 25 GW is tied up under PPAs currently?

S. B. Khyalia

So, the new capacity which we have planned is 23.7 2 GW. And out of that 23.72 GW, 8.52 GW is already tied up under the PPAs.. Over and above this 3.2 GW Assam bid, we are the L1 bidder, and recently, we have also tied up around 1,100 MW from the existing capacit ies t hat is, as I said, 500 MW Maharashtra and 570 MW Karnataka.

Shirom Kapur

Sure, sir. That is helpful. Just to clarify, from the operating capacity, which is 18.15, how much of that in GW is currently tied up under PPA, including the 1.1 that you have recently signed? If you could just give a GW number to that. Because there is 91% written on one of your pages and 88% on the other. I just want to get a clarification on that?

S. B. Khyalia

Broadly, the figure is around 16,300 MW. Because sometimes the agreement is at the busbar, sometimes it is at the state periphery. So there are some minor changes here and there. But broadly, it is 16,300 MW out of 18,150 MW.

Shirom Kapur

Great. Got it. So thank you so much. And just, last question. So, you had a target of, you obviously recently upped your target to 42 GW by FY32 from 30 GW earlier by FY30. So just want to understand in terms of planning, are we still on track for 30 GW by FY30, which will then ramp up to 42 GW by FY32? Just want to get a clarification on that. And of that 30 GW of your original plan that was there by FY30, how much of that portion is PPA tied up and excluding what is going to come after FY30? Just want to get a sense on that?

S. B. Khyalia

When we are saying 30 GW that means it is an addition of 12 GW. We are talking addition of 12 GW and then another addition of 12 GW . So roughly 23.5 GW in total. The first 12 GW is very much on track. We are going to commission around 3 GW in next year. Thereafter, we are going to commission 2.4 GW. In next to that year, 3.2 GW. And FY29-30, 7.2 GW. So we are going to commission more than the capacity of 12 GW, which was planned earlier. In fact, from the second stage of 12 GW also to some extent, the capacity will get commissioned before FY 29-30. So there is no issue as as far as commissioning of first 12 GW is concerned.

Shirom Kapur

Got it, sir.

S. B. Khyalia

These PPAs, which we have already signed, are part of this up to FY29-30.

Shirom Kapur

Understood. And sir, if I could just squeeze in one last question. You have already ordered out your entire 100% equipment for the upcoming 23.7 GW capacities. Just want to understand, would you like to share how much of this has gone to BHEL and how much to L&T? A rough split would be helpful?

S. B. Khyalia

I can give the broader number, not exactly. We have given 8 machines of 800 MW to L&T and balance to BHEL.

Shirom Kapur

Got it, sir. Thank you so much. This is very helpful. All the best.

S. B. Khyalia

Thank you.

Moderator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Aniket Mittal from SBI Mutual Fund. Please go ahead.

SBI Mutual Fund

Yes, thank you for the opportunity. Couple of questions on Godda. So first is, we have I think got the approval to connect Godda Power Plant to the Indian grid. Just wanted to understand by when can we get it connected to the Indian grid? What is the process going forward and also corollary to that, if once we do get connected, would we be allowed to sell power from Godda to the Indian market despite being PPA with Bangladesh?

S. B. Khyalia

We are expecting that it will get connected by December 2025. As regards your second question, it is allowed under certain conditions that are already mentioned under the regulations , about when you can sell the power . The conditions are , either there is persistent no scheduling from Bangladesh because their not having demand, or if there is a payment default under the PPA. So in these two conditions, we will be allowed to sell the power in the Indian grid. These are the precisely two conditions in which we would also like to sell. Otherwise, why should we be interested to selling in the Indian grid? So it is basically going to address the issue, if because of any reason, power is not being scheduled or because we are not getting the payment, both the conditions will get addressed. Thank you.

SBI Mutual Fund

I got that and that is helpful. On Godda again, if you could tell me what was the PLF for the 2nd Quarter and at the end of 2Q, what is the total receivables now for Godda?

S. B. Khyalia

PLF was 72% at the end of Quarter 2, which was 73% last year. So the PLF is more or less same. PLF of Godda is much better than the Indian grid, because in the Indian grid, the PLF of most of the thermal power projects is between 60%-65%. As regards outstanding payment is concerned, it is an outstanding of only around 1-1/2 months. In any case, one month is not due. So out of the overdue, it is only half months overdue. Thank you.

SBI Mutual Fund

Understood. Just on the bids part, two bids that I remember were in fairly advanced stages was the Rajasthan and the Uttarakhand. If you could just provide your estimate or timelines on where the bids are for these two states? When do we expect finalization to happen?

S. B. Khyalia

I don't think we can estimate anything on behalf of states. We can only give what is the present case. In case of Rajasthan, I think the bid submission date is in the next month , and in case of Uttarakhand, the documents are under approval of the regulator. So, that is the present status. Thank you.

S. B. Khyalia

Last year, our average realization for same quarter was Rs. 5.88 and this year, it was Rs. 5.37. So realization has been roughly 50 paisa lower in this quarter. This is approximately 10% of the tariff.

SBI Mutual Fund

Yes, got that. Thank you. Those were the questions I had.

S. B. Khyalia

Thank you.

Moderator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Vipul Aggarwal, an Investor. Please go ahead.

Good afternoon, sir. Again, congratulations for stellar performance in Q2 and H1. I just wanted to ask two questions from my side. What is the total estimated CAPEX for the 23 GW expansion that we are planning now?

S. B. Khyalia

It is approximately Rs. 2 lakhs crore.

Right, sir. And you already answered the gearing question. Second is, out of the additional 23 GW capacity, with regards to fuel linkages, are we providing fuel linkages along with the PPA or we will be applying for the fuel linkages?

S. B. Khyalia

No, we have already stated that we will be tying up capacities through the PPAs. Nowadays each bid is coming with attached fuel linkage given to the state utilities. So for all this capacity, fuel linkage availability will be provided by the utility under the bid.

And third question would be, sir, these are the new PPAs that we would be signing, will be capacity charge for the fuel charge will be passed through. It is not like a single levelized tariff because of which we had issues with Mundra, etc., earlier?

S. B. Khyalia

No, under the new standard bidding documents, you have to quote tariffs for only the first year. You are not allowed to quote any fixed number for 25 years. So therefore, we only quote the first year number and in case of fuel, it is completely passed through based on a formula which includes the station's heat rate, etc., which are the operating parameters. In case of the capacity charge, there are slight variations in different states’ PPAs . So in some of the states, the capacity charge will go up by 30% of WPI and a 2% reduction every year, whereas in a few states, it is up by 30% of WPI and a 1% reduction. So more or less, the capacity charge will remain flat and fuel charge is passed through.

Last question, sir, there was a news report dated 11th September where the management had given a guidance of reaching Rs. 70,000 crores EBITDA in 6 years. So this is accounting for the entire 42 GW capacity or this is just for the 30 GW?

Nishit Dave

Yes. Mr. Aggarwal, actually, this was a media report. The management has not given any such guidance. So it was the media's own analysis on the basis of which it was given, but I think, we hope to actually achieve a better EBITDA than what they had projected.

Moderator

Thank you. Our next follow -up question comes from the line of Manish Somaiya with Cantor Fitzgerald & Company. Please go ahead.

Mahesh Somaiya

Thank you again for getting me back on, SBK. I think you mentioned that you have pre-ordered critical components for the expansion pipeline. Can you give us a sense of pricing on the equipment vis-a-vis what you have paid before I assume it is going to be higher, but just trying to understand if it changes the return dynamics because of the inflationary nature of what is transpired on equipment costs, so maybe if you can just help us with that? Thank you.

S. B. Khyalia

I think it will not be appropriate to discuss the pricing of the equipment on a public platform. I would not be in a position to give exactly pricing of the equipment because that would not be appropriate. This is confidential information and in the competitive market, it is not appropriate to disclose these numbers. Thank you.

Cantor Fitzgerald & Company

So let me ask you a different question. In terms of the delivery of the equipment, I assume that is going to be meeting your timelines based on the conversations you have had with your partners. That is something that we can feel comfortable with, right?

S. B. Khyalia

Yes, the deliveries which we have agreed are ranging from 38 months to 75 months in total. These are staggered deliveries and we are confident that we will get the deliveries as per this time schedule because as we mentioned, four projects are under construction and all the four projects are ahead of the time in terms of delivery as well as execution. We are very confident that we will get the deliveries as per the agreed time schedule and therefore, there is no likelihood of any cost overrun.

Moderator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Nirav Shah from GeeCee Holdings. Please go ahead.

GeeCee Holdings

Yes. Hi. Good evening, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. Most questions are answered. Just last one question. Sir, we have commissioned the Dhirauli mine and there was an incentive of waiver of the cess, but now in this, the cess has been already completely waived. So now in what form will we be incentivized on the mining?

Dilip Jha

The Dhirauli mine is actually very close to the plant at Mahan, w here we already have one operating unit. Two more phases are coming over there. So compensation cess is one aspect. Apart from that, there will be huge logisti cs advantages in terms of Dhirauli mine. For Dhirauli mine, we are expecting that by end of this year only, the box cutting will be done by end of the year , and from next year, we will have coal production from the mine.

GeeCee Holdings

So the incentive of, if we consume the coal within the state, the Rs. 400 incentive that was there, now it will no longer be there? Is that fair to say?

Dilip Jha

There is no incentive so far as compensation cess is concerned. Compensation cess is driven by the GST Act, not by any other state incentive.

S. B. Khyalia

It was a comparative incentive, not in real terms an incentive and as per the new structure, there is no negative impact.

S. B. Khyalia

In most of the domestic market, the impact is positive, but since positive or negative, the change in law is to be passed on to the customer as change in law, so to the company, it is hardly anything.

GeeCee Holdings

Got it. Great. That is from my side and all the best.

S. B. Khyalia

Thank you.

Moderator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Nikhil Nigania with Bernstein. Please go ahead.

Hi. Thank you for taking my question. I just had a couple of questions. Number one, it is interesting to see so many tenders coming for thermal, even from renewable states like Gujarat, who are also doing a lot of battery tenders and battery prices are going low. So wanted management's view on what do you think is driving it? I mean, we understand the need for baseload power. But it is still surprising given states like Gujarat, as you said, have also started reaching out for thermal PPAs. So appreciate your view on that? Given how cheap batteries have become and renewable as well together with batteries. So I was finding it surprising that so many more thermal tenders are coming, even from renewable rich states like Gujarat, which you mentioned, is also looking to do a thermal PPA. So wanted your view on what is driving this strong demand for thermal contracting of late?

S. B. Khyalia

I think you yourself have commented that it is for the baseload. The tenders for battery back up, whatever has come so far, are of, for the token quantum. It is not really going to meet the baseload requirement. Even the Government of India's projection of installing batteries up to 2030 is a f raction of the total demand. It is expected that thermal power will only be supplying the baseload power. Therefore, every state is coming out with a tender for the thermal projects supply. If you will see the resource adequacy report of the Government of India, they have provided all these resources, whether it is solar, whether it is wind, whether it is battery, and thereafter have worked out the requirement of thermal installation. So the tenders whic h the states are coming out with, they have already considered the possibi lity of installation of battery a nd the tenders are coming after considering the battery planned under these studies.

Got it. Understood, sir. A related question on that, most of these tenders, are you seeing a need to set up the thermal plant within the state or are they fine being it somewhere else and you get the coal resource allocated to the state?

S. B. Khyalia

Every state is taking its own call because there are many negatives and positives having the power station in the state or at the mine pithead . If you install a power station at Pithead, you save on the transportation cost, but then you pay the transmission charges and losses. Apart from that, states are also evaluating if you put up the power plant in the state, you get a huge amount of GST, not only on capital expenditure, but also during the operat ions because GST is the consumption-based tax. So in whichever state the ultimate product is consumed, like in case of operations, the coal is consumed in the state if the project is installed in the state , so there is a huge benefit of GST revenue on the CAPEX as well as OPEX. There is a huge possibility of the employment generation as well as the installation of ancillary industries in and around a thermal power project. So these are the benefits. On the negative side, if you put up a power plant in the coal -bearing states, every state is asking for some power at variable cost. In case of Chhattisgarh, it is 5%, in case of Odisha, it is 12%. So if you supply 5% or 12% power at variable cost, that means the capacity charge of that quantum has to be loaded on the rest of the power. So these are pluses and minuses of putting the power plant at the Pithead or within the state. So every state is taking their own calculated decision. Thank you.

Understood. I appreciate the color. The last question I had is related to the point you brought up. So now GST has increased but cess has gone away from coal. So net-net, for most plants, you should see a reduction in fuel cost. Has the discussion started from states to reflect that as change in law in the tariffs or not at present?

S. B. Khyalia

It is a different position from state to state. Some of the states have issued the change in law notice and some may be issuing it in due course because it has happened last month only. In any case, because it has happened from the date of notification, in any case, it has to be passed on. It is only a process part where they have to issue the notice of change in law and then they have to file a petition before the regulatory commissions where they have to get it determined. CERC, as you may be aware, has already initiated a su o motu petition to pass an order in this regard.

Perfect. Thank you so much. Those were my questions. Thanks for answering.

S. B. Khyalia

Thank you.

Moderator

Thank you. As there are no further questions from the participants, I now hand the conference over to the management for the closing remarks.

Dilip Jha

Thank you very much for the time and patience to listen us. And we hope same level of interaction in subsequent quarters. Thank you very much. Have a great night. Thank you.

Moderator

Thank you. On behalf of ICICI Securities Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you all for joining us and you may now disconnect your lines.