Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. The first question is from the line of S Ramesh from Nirmal Bang Securities. Please go ahead.
Quarter ended Jun 2024
Sir, I had three parts of my question. One is in terms of the potential for addition to the second- half revenue, how much would that addition be in rupees, crores based on whatever revenue lost in the first quarter because of order deferral? Second is, what is the addition you can expect from the commissioning of the new capacity? And third is how much is the additional revenue you expect to book from the new LOIs and contracts which you will start delivering in the second - half?
Let me answer this in a broad manner. See, if you look at it today the revenue should have been doing Rs. 80-Rs. 100 crores more than what we have reported today on a standalone basis and that is primarily on account of the deferral of the demand. So, that is the number th at you can expect in the second-half of the year, which will be spread over two quarters. Two, if you look at from a capacity , see, capacity, it is going to come at various stages , so I don't want to talk about too much in terms of their number that how much would that add. It could be marginal for the year, but largely it will be for the next year that you will see a large part of the revenue accruing from the new capacity as well. And third on the LOIs and contracts today, we estimate that around 20%-25% for this year's revenue should be from the LOIs and contracts which are commercialized over the last 1-2 years’ time . So, that is net -net with what we are trying to suggest.
So, if you are looking at a ballpark , Rs. 1,000-Rs. 1,100 crores revenue for the year, you are saying that you will get about Rs. 250 crores from the new LOIs and contracts in the second - half, is my understanding correct?
LOIs and contracts have talked about the whole year. Yes, largely it is back ended, but yes, it is the whole year that I am talking about. You are right.
So, over FY26 and ‘27, again on this base revenue you have existing LOIs contracts and the existing business and then you have the new LOIs and contracts. So, what will be the addition to the FY26 -27 new from , the new contracts and what will be the growth from the existing business?
If I understand what you are asking is that from the total LOIs and contracts, what is the kind of number that we can expect over the next 2 years, is that the question that you are suggesting?
Yes, exactly.
So, what I was saying was that my number, so this year, we are looking around about Rs. 250 odd crores and we should be adding roughly around additional Rs. 200 crores each at least for the next 2 years is what our estimation would be.
And this is something which you are confident about, even with the kind of headwinds you are facing in Agrochemical. So, this is something which you can do right aspect of that?
Yes, because I will tell you two things. One is Agrochemical is also there , but also please appreciate that a lot of my new contracts are of non-agro business as well, though it will come in the lat ter half of the next year or after that it will be coming in. So, you are right. We are feeling confident uncomfortable with these numbers especially with the kind of indication and the conversations that we have had.
Sir, if I just squeeze in one more thought on the balance sheet and your working capital, so incrementally when you ramp up your production, are you going to maintain your debt at current levels assuming that the working capital will go up for the additional revenue? And secondly, when do you see the reduction in the working capital in terms of number of days over the next 2 years?
I think it is two year horizon is the right number to see because that way I will have a better visibility to talk about, a better view to talk about. One, if you really look at it, last part of, if you look at, we today are sitting with the higher working capital and to that extent we believe that working capital will be released over next 2 years timeframe and we don't expect any significant requirement of the external debt to finance this growth in terms of working capital because the additional working capital that will be required for additional sales would be more supported by the release of the working capital that is there today and that is where I would say. Over next 2- 3 years’ time period, as we have been guiding in the past also we would be targeting the working capital cycle to come back with more numbers that we have been in the past around 2021 timeframe, those will be the number of days and that is what our view is for now.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Rohit Nagraj from Centrum Broking. Please go ahead.
So, Rohit, I am also a bit of crystal gazing as you are. So, we take it with that much of a thing. But if you really ask me, crystal gazing is not the right word, I would say, but please understand this is 2 years out, so I am directionally I am giving you these numbers rather than taking it very specific to the numbers. I hope that is fair.
Absolutely, sir.
So, then I would expect that Pharma should be around about 20%-25% of my revenue, Polymer should be of 10%-15% more towards 15% than 10%, but yes that should be there, and Personal Care should be in the range of 10 %-12%. So, if you look at it and the balance should be the Agrochem is the number I would go with. Rohit, after two years, please don't hold me with these numbers and say you are exactly said this but directionally I am saying that the Polymer and Pharma will contribute more, and the Personal Care will remain around 10%-12% that we have seen.
Sir, second question, now given that we are ending with the Rs. 670 crores of CAPEX this year, are we recalibrating next year CAPEX given the kind of environment we are currently in and every single company is talking about there has been new capacity additions happening in China, which is putting pressure in terms of incremental growth o r volume. So, just your thoughts on the same and is there any competition coming particularly in some of our molecules or some of our user segments and that can also lead to maybe the CAPEX being recalibrated?
Rohit, if you remember and that we had undertaken a Rs. 670 crores of CAPEX. Now, we are at the fag end of it and we are confident that we will be completing this CAPEX and we don't see any reason for us to not complete this CAPEX. So, that is one part of the thing. And anyways, for the next year, we had not planned any new CAPEX because we have actually had enough CAPEX for our near to medium growth. So, anyways, new CAPEX was not planned for the next year any significant one there, may be some investments in wind and solar that we have talked about and also maybe a bit of repurposing of th e plants. Other than that there is no significant capacity addition that was planned and hence we don't need to recalibrate because there wasn’t any in the first place. I hope that helps.
And anything on the China competition front?
So, I think for us there is not much of it , maybe to my end customer in few products there may be competition. In specific from my products to my customers we don't see too much of that happening here.
And one just last clarification again, I am not going to hold you for the exact numbers, but on the broader margins front, incrementally, do we still hold to the range of maybe 25% to 27%, 28% EBITDA margins for the next leg of products?
Thank you. The next question is a follow up question from S Ramesh from Nirmal Bang Equities. Please go ahead.
So, if you look at your fluorination chemistry, I know it overlaps one or two segments. So, within the segments here, you have discussed between agro and non-agro, so where would the fluorination share of your overall revenue stand? And how does it move in the next two years? And broadly I think it is possibly split between the life sciences and non-life science in the order book and incrementally if you are looking at your margin guidance, this margin guidance kind of does it capture the share of fluorine chemistry, and different segments are going like Pharma and Polymers with the understanding that there could be plus or minus 100-200 basis point difference in the model. So, you can just put this in perspective, it will be useful?
This quarter fluorination was around by 15 % odd of my revenue . This year we are looking at around 20%-25% of my revenue coming from fluorination chemistry. And the fraction that we are seeing by 2027, we should be looking at about 30 %-35% of our revenue coming from fluorinated products across various applications.
So, now in terms of the supply chain with the Tanfac, there are again two parts to this, on e is, how much of HF have you firmed up with Tanfac in terms of their CAPEX plan to double their capacity and does that give you enough visibility on the requirement for ramping up your business on the new orders over the next 5 years or will Tanfac have to invest further in terms of additional capacity, what is that? And for Tanfac itself, what does it mean because we don't have much?
Let me answer the first thing , today with the CAPEX that we have planned out for Tanfac, the capacity is sufficient and enough for any requirement that we will have over not near the m, but even a little longer term view also if we take, it would be sufficient for us and enough and more to be made available for the customers that they have been supplying today as well. What I am saying here is that first Tanfac expansion will ensure th at we have enough and more available for Anupam to consume as much as it needs for its own growth needs , first. Second, I believe that with the expanded capacity, Tanfac would be able to service their current customers as well as our growth need is what I am saying.
So, in terms of your fluorine-based products based on the HF, overall, how does it change your margin and ROCE profile because if you are saying that the margins are going to be in this range or some products are actually going to be lower margins. So, in terms of ROCE how do we read that in terms of the asset turn , like if you take the Rs. 670 crore CAPEX, what is the asset turn you can expect on this new CAPEX commission and is that going to be the key lever for driving your ROCE improvement? How do you see that?
So, first, I think on a blended basis, again, as I had suggested to Rohit also that it will be in the ranges that we have talked about because there will be a blend here. There will be some products which will have a very high margin, but also there will be some products where there will be average margins and on a more blended basis, we believe that the number th at we are guiding should be achievable number one, especially Polymer would have a higher margin. So, as I was saying that the margins will be on the blended basis fairly the similar range that we have talked about because on Polymers, few segments, there will be a little higher margins, especially with the fluorinated products, Polymer products. And for the Pharma there may be tad lower but on a blended basis, this is the number that we can give you. Now, if you come to the ROCE and the capacity utilization, if you look at the new CAPEX that we are doing, that should give us the revenue of over around Rs. 1,100-Rs. 1,200 crores. And hence if you see the capital asset that we have created, we should be having a blended asset turn of over 1.5x and the kind of margins and the topline that we are talking about, we should be having a very healthy ROCE that we can expect here.
Sir, just one last clarification. So, this is Rs. 1,100-Rs. 1,200 crores and 1.5 asset turn by when would you be able to achieve this?
So, Ramesh, the point is, it should be, that is the number that we will take around 2000 crores to 3,000 crores of total revenue, right, because my current asset block also has the capacity to grow. I would not want to guide the number exactly by guess. I am just saying this is how I would say but for me.
This is Gopal here. I can take some of the questions or maybe repeat on behalf of Vishal.
Yes, he was saying that he cannot put a timeline, but broadly, this is the guidance you are giving in terms of incremental revenue from the new CAPEX and asset turn, s o just to get in terms of whether it will be possible by 27 or 28, because if you look at the run rate of Rs. 200-Rs. 250 crores every year , i t looks like it will take 3-4 years, so would it be realistic to expect this additional revenue from the new LOIs and the new CAPEX by 27 or would it be more like 28 that will give us a sense in terms of when you can achieve that blended asset turn and improvement in ROCE, that was the basic spirit behind my question?
No, I understand that. I think with the exception of the current year, I think as you have seen, as we have been guiding towards the growth of 25%-30%. So, with that in mind, I guess we should be able to kind of see that number in the period you are mentioning, some other around that.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Ayush Chaturvedi from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.
Firstly, if you could provide the breakup of exports and domestic business in this quarter, that will be very helpful? And also I would like to understand other than the deferment in the agri business that we have had, what is the impact or any sort of sense we can ge t from, how much of deferment can we expect in the rest of the year on other business?
I would not want, see, I can give you the numbers on the Q1 in terms of split of domestic to export, but you would also understand that these are not the representative on especially with the deferment of the volume that we have talked about, one. And if you look at the deferment as we had mentioned earlier that we would be around Rs. 80 to 100 crores of deferment, which we expect to come by the year end. So, in this year we would be able to recoup that demand that we have not had in the first quarter and first half.
So, again, like I said, I would like to understand how much of this deferment is coming from the Agri portfolio?
Largely it is agri, very limited because that is where my large part of my contracted demand comes from. If you look at Personal Care has fairly done stable. Polymer and other products have also been stable, so large part of it is agri.
So, could we expect a very strong resurgence in the agri in the latter half of the year like you have been mentioning. So, what sort of, you would have some sense of how much of it would start coming back?
So, let me answer i t in a very simple manner that my revenue that I have for the year will be equal or higher than have delivered in the last year. So, we believe there will be growth this year is what we are expecting. It will be marginal, even marginal, but it will be ther e from the feedback that we have got from the customers and their plans.
Thank you. As there are no further questions, I would now like to hand the conference to the management for closing comments.
So, thank you everyone for your participation and your queries. We hope we have been able to answer most of your queries. In case, we have missed out addressing any of your queries, kindly reach out to our IR partner, Ernst & Young and we will be happy to connect offline to answer those questions. Thank you.
Thank you. On behalf of Anupam Rasayan India Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us and you may now disconnect your lines.