The first question is from the line of Abneesh Roy from Nuvama Wealth.
FY2026 Q4
Firstly, congrats on good recovery. First is, in terms of Iran crisis, we saw 2, 3 levels of impact on the sector. One was, of course, gas availability to a lot of the canteens and restaurants was severely restricted for a few days. And then we obviously saw inflation in edible oil, etcetera. And a lot of the local edible oil players would not have been able to manage the working capital sourcing for a few days, the way you would have managed. If you could tell us on an overall basis, did you gain or did you lose? Because in HoReCa, I think the re could have been some adverse impact, if you could clarify on that? And second, of course, convenience food, there was some upstocking for a few days because some consumers got worried that availability itself could get impacted. So overall holistic level, what is the impact in Q4 of Iran crisis?
See, Abneesh, on the Q4 per se, if I say, I think the impact is not that much because the prices - - while prices went up in March, but it also saw a recovery of significant demand in the month of March because trade tried to accumulate a lot of inventory, and therefore, we saw a huge amount of demand coming in, in the month of March. So that, to some extent, offsetted any issues with respect to the pricing and other things, one. Second, yes, the prices of a lot of things has gone up like packing material, chemicals and coal. I think all this will get reflected in the Q1 number because the real cost, which has gone up will actually hit because month of March, most of the players were having the inventory -- sufficient inventories to take care of the cost. So this should -- will be impacting in Q1. Initially, we did saw some demand destruction because of this LPG shortage and other things. But after that, we didn't saw. But yes, when we got into April, we did see some of the sluggishness in the demand because a lot of people who had accumulated inventories in the month of March are now consuming it, and therefore, we see not a very encouraging demand scenario as far as April is concerned, but I'm very sure that in the month of May and June, it will recover, and we will have a fairly good quarter Q1 as well.
Okay. Till now, how much price hike you have taken pre- Iran versus now across your products, if you could tell us, given packaging cost will be, say, 20% of your broad raw material, how much hike you would have taken across different parts of the portfolio, specific each, if you can tell?
See, the packing cost, as I said, will start hitting you actually from the month of April. So there is no question of getting -- taking any price hike because of the packing material.
So April I'm asking now.
Yes. So in general, the edible oil complex went up in the month of March, close to 10%. And I think that 10% of increased prices and every player has passed it on to the consumer somewhere in mid of March or end of March. So that has already happened. As far as the packing material is concerned, I think slowly people will start passing it on. But packing material for us is close to, I would say, 2%, 2.5%, 3% of our overall cost, not more than that. And if it has gone up by 10%, 15%, the overall impact per se would not be more than a quarter basis or 50 basis points. But as we approach to the en d of April, I think we will take the corrections accordingly.
Sure. My second and last question is on alternate channels. If you could tell us total alternate channels as a portion of domestic business, how much it is? And how is the profitability versus the overall business? Is it better? Is it slightly worse? And second question will be part of this. On Kohinoor, we have seen a spectacular recovery. Of course, first few quarters were very challenging, so which means base is quite favorable here. So if you could tell us, ex of the base effect, are you now happy with this performance because the base had seen declines and now it's a growth. Are you happy till now whatever has happened in terms of the acquisition? Is it something you are satisfied or still a lot of things left to do here?
See, on alternate channel, I will answer. And then for Kohinoor, I will request Mr. Mallick revert to your question. So on alternate channel, now in Edible Oil, we sell close to 15% of our volumes comes from the alternate channel. And as I said earlier, it is growing by 40%, 44%. Similarly, for the food, it is close to 25% of volume, which comes from the alternate channel. And this channel is certainly more profitable than any other channel, whether it is a general trade or whether it is export. I think we will continue to grow on this. I request Mr. Mallick to specifically answer your Kohinoor related question.
See, on Kohinoor, we clocked around 50,000- plus tons this year, '25-'26, showing a growth of almost 20% over the last year. Kohinoor as a brand has its own salience and very strong in South and Western India. We have concentrated in these markets more. But because of AWL's distribution strength, we have taken it to entire country. And we see good traction coming from Eastern India where the brand had a good traction earlier. But in between, there was no supplies by the earlier companies, but we have taken it and we are not doing it well. This year also, I expect this momentum to continue and even do more. Our HoReCa brand is Kohinoor Chef's Choice, which has a legacy in hotels and restaurants and many top hotels wants our flagship brand, Kohinoor Trophy Royale . So that way, if you ask me, Kohinoor has come back into full action, and we will see more growth coming in days to come.
The next question is from the line of Manoj Menon from ICICI Securities.
I have only one question, which is, let's say, going into the latter half of FY '27, what's your world view on inflation, specifically agri inflation, right? Are there pockets given the disruptions currently, which can impact sowing, etcetera, j ust your world view on agri inflation in general going into fiscal '27 latter part?
Today, CPI is at close to 3.5 in which food contributes significant 40% of the weightage and food itself, which -- wherein you have all the edible oil and other food stuff is there, it's actually sitting at 3.5, very difficult to estimate anything right now because in today's world, it's too much of dynamism there. I think I don't know how the things are going to pan up tomorrow. But if edible oil complex more or less remains same, I think the inflation rate of this 3.5 CPI of this 3.5 to 3.775 should remain same. And demand -- and whether this will have any impact on the demand, I think our industry is more of an essential product s rather than discretionary products. So the demand discussion generally doesn't happen in our case. What in our case, happens is down trading for which we have requisite brand architecture in place where if consumer wants to buy a lower brand, we have that brand also to offer to him. So the c ustomer remains within our scheme of the things. But yes, if inflation goes up, the more impacted are the discretionary spend FMCG products where customer would try to cut.
The next question is from the line of Dhiraj Mistry from Jefferies.
Congrats on good set of numbers. Sir, my first question is related to Foods. The kind of improvement what -- in terms of margin, what we have witnessed in FY26 because of restructuring, can we assume that now this kind of profitability is a new base going ahead, if not material improvement from here on, it can stay at current level?
See, that's what we have been saying that the food profitability is something which all depends upon what kind of opportunity that we will get in the market to grow the top line. And therefore, our first focus, of course, will remain to grow the volume. And we have been saying this that at least till end of FY '27, the priority will always be our top line and not the bottom line. But whatever level we are today, I think we should be able to continue, but maybe we may become a little aggressive as the opportunity comes during FY '27 to see that we give priority to the volume over the margins.
Got it. Got it. And in terms of new product launches in Food segment that the kind of premiumization what you are trying to do in edible oil with the recent launch, is there any particular actions you would like to highlight in Food segment where you are trying to drive premiumization and improve your gross margin as well as overall profitability?
Yes, absolutely. I mean these all -- this category of premium products will certainly has got a better margin profile on the gross margin as well as EBITDA. But right now, they are at a very small scale. So it doesn't change the metrics at an overall scheme of the things. But premiumization is something it's not only limited to these niche products which we are launching. This niche product is just the beginning. I think over the years, we will develop this into a bigger category. But premiumization, we continue to do in other market -- other products also, which is our normal Fortune brand, where we have both the under-indexed market and over-indexed market. So the markets where we are very strong, we try to work out how can we improve the margins from there. So that process is continuous, should reflect on the per ton or unit metrics, which we have been communicating.
Got it. And sir, my next question is related to the balance sheet. What we have seen is that there is a significant decline in inventory, while there is an increase in trade credit, what we are -- we avail to buy edible oil. How do we read these 2 line items?
No. So basically, the trade credit and the borrowings keep exchanging between the lines. And therefore, what you should be looking at is that overall inventory plus receivable as compared to the borrowings. And if you compare these 2 set of numbers, you w ill find more or less no major movement within these two because sometimes we opt for a buyer's credit rather than a trade credit and sometimes we opt for a trade credit as rather than a buyer's credit. So that number keeps fluctuating between the schedules. But if you look at the current liabilities versus current assets, I think we are quite comfortably placed.
Got it. Got it. And sir, one request. Can you explain the divergence in your quarterly press release, what you highlighted where you said that the food volume growth would be around 1% and top line growth would be in a mid-single digit, while what you reported is 6% volume growth and 18% top line growth.
So I think what you are talking is basically between the stand and consol. So the consolidated, I think we -- what we are saying is that the food volumes were actually 3% growth after normalizing that G2G business. Stand-alone is what we are saying that it has de-growth.
Sir, just continuing on the comment which you made on the previous participant's question that in the Foods business, we will prioritize volumes over margins. Here, if an opportunity comes, especially here, basically wanted to know at what volumes would the margins -- would you be able to maintain the margins?
Yes, to answer your question is very straight. I don't think that we can quantify now because many times opportunity comes in and you are able to grow also and without diluting on the margin. So that's something which is very difficult to say. But what we are actually trying to communicate is that we will have priority on the volume because we would certainly want in FY '27 food volumes to grow in double digit, at least in mid-teens kind of number, which we are looking at. Profitability, profitably, I mean, that should be the first. But however, if we have any constraint on that, we will certainly give a priority to the top line having -- and therefore, it's difficult to say up to what volume you would be profitable up to after what volume you will not be because it all depends upon what kind of opportunity that we will get in the market. As I was saying in my initial commentary that last year, we didn't get any opportunity in wheat flour business because wheat prices didn't go up. And therefore, we had a significant competition coming in from the smaller players. Now this is an opportunity which was not there. If this opportunity comes in this year, I think we will grow volume as well as profitability also.
Okay. So where I was coming from is that, is it fair to assume that, as you mentioned, that your ambition is somewhere to be to grow in mid-teens. Is that -- basically, is that the base case for you in your AOP -- when you make your AOP that okay fine, is something which we grow. And let's say, if the additional opportunity, as you mentioned, in wheat, let's say, from what we are seeing currently, the prices are firming up there. Would that be an add -on to what you are building as a base case of mid-teens growth, volume growth?
Yes, of course, the base case see certainly double- digit growth, which is mid-teens kind of growth for food. But opportunity strikes and the things comes favorably to us, we would certainly try and make it even better than this. That's not an -- that, of course, is there.
In that case, whatever that 3%-odd margins, which we have done would be slightly lower?
Maybe, yes.
And sir, again, FY26 as well is probably characterized by reversing too many opportunistic calls which we had taken in the previous years, right? So when you talk about these opportunities, right, are these short-term tactical opportunities? Or these are some things where these are areas where you can create a structural edge or benefit and then build on it because we would not want to see that reversal going ahead as well.
No, no, of course, these are all structural changes that we want to do. I mean -- and there are only 2 things which happened last year with respect to the food. One is, of course, that onetime government to government business, which was not there. And the other is we are just trying to consolidate the NBR business, which we earlier tried that we will penetrate across India, but then we thought that it is better to go region by region and then b uild this portfolio. And that's the only change which we did in the food business. I think that should continue.
NBR is sir, private label, right?
NBR is non-basmati rice.
Non-basmati rice, okay.
Yes, yes.
But let's say, segment by segment, if we think of wheat, rice and, let's say, others, right, soya, sugar, etcetera, where do you see -- I mean, you mentioned that a few categories are already growing at 30% in your pre-quarter update. But let's say, going into FY '27, which -- where do you see the largest opportunity, sir, let's say, over the next 1, 2 years in terms of growth for us?
The largest opportunity, to be very frank with you, sits in rice, wheat flour, besan, and we also have a sugar, which is also a volume puller for us. So these are the 4 categories where -- and pulses, of course. So these are the 4, 5 categories where we see a huge amount of potential to grow.
Okay. And to the earlier comment which you made on wheat, right, that we did not have the opportunity last year because the prices were quite stable and local competition also went in. So basically, if the prices firm up, would it also mean that apart fro m growth, even the margins of that particular wheat flour business should improve for us in FY27 versus FY26?
No, not necessarily. I think if prices firms up, it will be beneficial to the big organized and big players like us who buy the stock at the time of the harvest because since we are delivering a consistent quality to the customer. And the local players actually doesn't not able to compete with organized players like us. It will help us to build volumes. Not necessarily, it will have impact on the profitability. Yes, it will have if we -- if the prices goes up even beyond the carry cost. So that is completely a margin accretion, which will happen to us because if prices goes up beyond a carry cost, which normally you account for, certainly, it will add to the margins also.
Okay. And sir, on a longer-term horizon, sustainably, what is the kind of margins do you foresee or envisage in the Foods business?
No, in the food business, we are actually -- if you go through our earlier comments, we have always been saying that food will remain an EBITDA neutral till FY '27. And after that, we will try and build INR1,500 per ton to INR2,000 a ton kind of EBITDA in the food from FY '28. So this is what we are working on while we are delivering it today also. But that certainly doesn't mean that it is something which is sustainable at least for the year. But that's what we are looking. And then from there, from the journey will start wherein you should ideally get to a margin level where you start benchmarking yourself with your competitor like for us, in wheat flour, the competition is with ITC and in rice, we have KRBL and LT Foods. So you have to go to that level. We are not there right now because, of course, we are still at investment and growth phase.
Next question is from the line of Akshay Krishnan from ICICI Securities.
My question is on at what point in time does the business shift from the reinvesting gross margin gains to be delivering sustained EBITDA expansion? And what are the key triggers for this transition, sir?
You are -- so your question is specifically for the food?
For the foods, exactly.
Can you repeat the question again?
And what I'm trying to see is at what point of the business does the shift happens in reinvesting the gross margin gains to delivering sustained EBITDA margins? And what are the key triggers for this?
So I think key triggers remains -- I mean, a good market share which you have and only then you have a pricing power to charge prices. Until that time, you are just playing aggressively on pricing and growing. I think food anywhere closer to -- or anywhere more than 1.5 million tons of volumes, I think we should be able to start consolidating the margins. This year, we closed at 1.2 million ton s. I am hopeful that next year, we will go beyond 1.5 million ton s, 1.6 million tons as far as th e food is concerned. From there, I think the consolidation will start on gross margin as well as the EBITDA margin.
Okay. But technically, you also gained market share in this quarter. So is it that are you focusing more on market share gains at the cost of the margins then?
Yes, at least for FY '27 for sure and maybe some part of FY '28 also. We will certainly give priority to the top line rather than margins.
Okay. My second is on the volatility in the oil that's been going on in the recent trends. I just wanted to have you done any sensitivity analysis on every INR 5 or INR10 drop or increase in the cost of oil, what is the impact on the margins? And how do you protect this price through the pricing measures?
So basically, the recent volatility in edible oil, I just wanted to understand the sensitivity analysis. So for every INR5 or $5 or $10 decline or an increase in the edible oil or crude oil prices, what is -- how are you managing the inventory? And how are the margins being protected through pricing in this?
I think as prices goes up, every -- our experience says that at every INR 10, we see demand slowing down by 1% and vice versa. As prices comes off, the demand increases. Basis the international price analysis, we also revise our inventory and supply chain and also depending upon the season and the festivals. So depending upon the prices and the trend, we revise and we manage our inventory supply chain.
Okay. Perfect, sir. The next is on the alternate channel. So we've been scaling up rapidly. And I just wanted to just help me in understanding and pick your brains on how can you quantify the margin difference versus general trade and how this evolves with scale?
No, I think this alternate channel certainly is more profitable than general trade because there are less number of intermediaries involved because you are then dealing directly with the e-com and alternate channel operator. And also, the stocks are moving very fast. So you certainly have a better margin profile as far as general trade are concerned. But again, on the alternate channel also, you have other costs which you have to incur because alternate channel is all about ensuring the visibility of your product on the platform, plus you will have to also spend some amount of time, some money on ensur ing that the fill rate doesn't go down, and therefore, you have to keep supplying to them through your logistical capabilities. So all these costs are there. But in spite of taking all this, it's a better off in terms of margins as compared to general trade. And therefore, we are saying we are quite optimistic about this channel growing. It's a channel of the future. And the way it is growing at a 40%, although the base is low, that's why the 40%, 50% looks very good number. As the base increases, this growth rate will certainly come down. But I'm sure in the years to come, we will have close to 30%, 35% of our volumes coming in from the alternate channel, which is today at 15%.
What would be the margin difference versus general trade, in this?
The margin difference is like our -- it's not more than -- it's very miniscule margin difference, but maybe if in general trade, we are making x percentage, I think we -- the general trade versus this is hardly a 50, 60 bps lower than -- higher than the general trade. Because in our overall scheme of the things, the margin itself is 1.5%, 2% at the end of the day. So any change in 25, 30 bps is quite a significant for us.
So steady-state range, you can build around INR 3,600 a ton or INR3,500 for a safer side, you take it, I think we should be able to deliver within that range.
Okay. Even given the volatility that's been going on with this Iran war.
Yes, yes.
The next question is from the line of Nilesh Doshi from Prospero Tree.
Congratulations for the strong volume and revenue growth in the quarter 4. Sir, my question is related to whether the Wilmar defined itself as a branded product company or a simple commodity company because we are valued far below the other peer group company like the LT Food, which has a brand Daawat; KRBL brand, India Gate; Patanjali, which are trading more than the onetime of the revenue, and we are far below -- because our market cap is around INR26,000 crores and revenue is INR74,000 crores. Can you explain the reason for such anomaly, sir?
First of all, AWL Agri Business is food FMCG that we classify ourselves because 70% of our revenue comes from the brands. And I think this is what has been we are saying, and this is our -- how our numbers tell. Now as far as the valuation is concerned, I will not be able to comment too much on it because it's ultimately a market-driven price discovery. We can only say that the kind of potential that AWL Agri Business has got, the investor is taking their own time to understand that potential, and we are quite hopeful and very positive that sooner or later, investors will understand that potential and will give a valuation that we deserve.
Sir, next question. Why the management is constantly guiding the margin per ton because we are selling the product as a brand and under the small packaging. When we are selling as a brand and under the small packaging, the margin much more higher than the per ton basis. So what is the logic to guide the margin per ton rather than the -- in a percentage term of each segment?
See, the reason for giving a guidance in margin per ton is very simple because the product levels at which we operate gets impacted due to the price movement in the commodities, whether it is the edible oil, whether it's a wheat, whether it's a rice. And therefore, what happens is that since we operate a very significantly strong brand, most of the time, we are able to pass on the price increase or a commodity price increase to the consumer. And therefore, when you pass on the commodity price rise to the consumer, your margin percentage actually goes down, but you're normally able to maintain per kg or per ton of margins. And that is the reason why we say we are not a pure -play discretionary FMCG product where you try and maintain margin as a percentage of our revenue. Our revenue gets impacted because of the inflationary pressures. And therefore, we say it is better for us, better for investing community to track our margins on a per ton basis.
The next question is from the line of Kenil Mehta from Boring AMC.
Sir, I would like to know what portion of your 10% to 15% growth in volumes in Edible Oil was real consumer demand versus distributors stock up and consumer stock up before the price hike? And are you seeing slowdown in volumes in April due to commercial LPG issue across the restaurant and eateries?
No, see, in our scheme of the things, the primary and secondary keeps happening hand in hand. So you have a primary in 1 month and say, followed by the secondary in another month. What we are saying is that between 1 month and 2 months, there are certain pipeline corrections between the trade, which keeps happening. And therefore, you might see some slump is 1 month, which is getting -- which is getting replenished in the next month. So it's only a stop gap which happens between 1 month and another month. I think for us, whatever we are able to sell, I think it's reflective of the secondary itself. And on your second question, does this slowness in the demand in month of April is suggestive of the fact that there is a shortage of LPG. I don't think that is there now in -- on the street. We don't see any shortage of LPG across the country. And coming months, we have quite a few marriage season coming up, and therefore, we are hopeful that demand will pick up from here.
Understood. And also, sir, is as the palm oil price reduces, is it our margin remain stable or we have to pass on the lower prices to the consumers also -- now the price hike?
No. So for us, whether the price goes up or price goes down, since we operate in a brand, we don't change the prices quickly in the case, whenever the prices goes up, we have that ability of passing on the price to the consumer quickly because of the brand. But when the prices goes down, we try and time our -- time it such that we are able to get as far as margins before passing it on to the customer. So that happens both the way.
Understood. And sir, are you also planning to enter into palm oil plantation business like your peers like Patanjali Foods and Godrej Agrovet due to government push?
No. As we speak today, we don't have any plan because our promoter, Wilmar itself, they are into a big plantation in palm in Indonesia and Malaysia. But as far as AWL is concerned, as we speak today, we don't have any plans to get into this.
Okay. And sir, as an industry-wise, do you think the Indonesian government of increasing palm oil usage in diesel instead of importing it will see some sort of a price hike and lower production exports to other countries?
So as you mentioned, Indonesian government has planned to increase the biodiesel consumption to B50. And that is happening across the world that all the producing countries are increasing their biodiesel blending into the diesel. The main reason is today, the biodiesel is cheaper than the fossil diesel because of the war situation. And Indonesia is on the right path to announce and eventually consume more palm into biodiesel. That may not start from tomorrow, but yes, the plan is from the second half of the year. That may impact the price structure, which may help palm prices to go up and the other competing oil to remain at a reasonable price spread, which is probably good for AWL because we are mainly soft oil consumer pack, very strong soft oil consumer pack company. So I think eventually, it will help us.
The next question is from the line of Devesh Advani from IndusInd General Insurance.
Congratulations on good set of numbers. What I wanted to ask is how do you see -- how have been the traction in edible oil and foods in the month of April? And how do you see it panning out in the month of May and June going forward?
You are talking from the consumption point of view?
Yes, from the consumption point of view.
See, normally, April -- first half of April is always slow because the New Year or the wedding season starts from 15th of April. So the first half, we always see a little slow and then the demand picks up. This year, the overall summer has set in quite st rong, and we have seen very high temperatures, which has cut into the consumption overall. Small disruptions in the out -of-home consumption has been seen. Hotel workers or other workers going away either for the election or for the wheat harvest season has also disrupted entire labor force in many of the places. So this type of disruption we have seen. Again, after 15th April onwards, the season picks up, and this will continue till June. This year, the wedding season is good. So the consumption normally will be good one. Harvest has been good. So we expect the rural to do well because wheat, mustard and chana has been good harvest. We only now have to see how the monsoon sets in. Overall, overall, consumption-wise, I think Q1 should be good. April is low, but May and June will pick up.
Okay. So overall, a growth of double digits in terms of edible oil and foods, edible oil?
Not possibly double digit, but surely a single-digit growth.
Yeah. Thank you very much for attending this call and keep tracking us. In case of any further queries, you can write down to our IR team, and we will certainly respond. Thanks again.
Thank you. On behalf of ICICI Securities Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you all for joining us today, and you may now disconnect your lines.