Balkrishna Industries Limited analyst Q&A

Thank you very much. We will now begin with the question and answer session. T he first question is from the line of Raghunandhan from Nuvama Research. Please go ahead.

Sir, firstly, on Europe, Europe has seen a decline Y-o-Y at 20%. And Europe farmer sentiments seem to be weak on higher input cost impact of EU regulation. Can you talk a bit about how you are seeing the customer sentiments in the replacement market? And how do you see the recovery in this market going forward?

So the current sentiments in Europe is weak, and this is reflected in the numbers. Overall economic environment was also weak in Europe. So that is the reason for this continued numbers.

So given that now we are 4 months into the year, how do you see the FY '26 outlook, given all the uncertainties? But going ahead, next two quarters we also have a favorable base. Would you expect to be on the positive side for the full year?

So too early to give a number and comment on that.

So for the current quarter, it was INR93.60. And for the remaining year, it is closer to current rate.

Got it, sir. And just a last question before I fall back to the queue. Can you please share the freight cost as a percentage of revenue that you usually used to share? Would it be lower Q-o-Q given that there has been some fall in the global freight prices?

It was marginally lower.

Got it, sir. Thank you so much. I will fall back to the queue.

Thank you so much. The next question is from the line of Mumuksh Mandlesha from Anand Rathi Institutional Equities. Please go ahead.

Sir, I just want to understand if there has been any correction in the inventory this quarter, particularly in Europe where there was almost 20% down. And in Q4, we saw 8% growth. So has there any inventory adjustment this quarter in Europe? And overall, sir, globally, how is the inventory situation now, sir?

So nothing specific on the inventory correction. It is just the overall market sentiment.

Got it, sir. And sir, possible to quantify what was the U.S. tariff impact in this quarter, sir?

Currently, the tariff is 10%. Out of that 60% is customer bearing and 40% we are sharing.

40% is your sharing? And that continues for Q2 also, right, sir, as of now?

Yes.

Got it, sir. And sir, this quarter, other expenses were up 24% Y -o-Y and Q-on-Q. Any reason for the increase in the other expenses, sir? And what should be the run rate ahead, sir?

It is the duty impact and some marketing impact.

Okay. So the U.S. duty impact has come in other expenses, what you're saying?

Yes.

Got it. And the marketing being higher...

Marginally.

Okay. So the run rate should continue at least for Q2 because the duty would continue that, right, sir?

Yes.

So it was very nominal price reduction as compared to last quarter. And the coming quarter, we see the similar type of the prices because rubber is going up and other basket is down.

Flattish for the Q2

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Aditya Jhawar from Investec. Please go ahead.

Sir, you mentioned that 50% of the tariff impact was absorbed by customers. So if you can give some sense that out of the total demand in the U.S. market, what percentage would be domestically procured? And how competitors have behaved in terms of tariff impact, if they are also importing from outside U.S?

On the competitive dynamics.

Just to correct you on net net basis 40%, not 50%.

Sorry, could you repeat, sir?

We are bearing 40%. So we are bearing 40%, not 50%...

You are bearing 40%. 60% is -- okay. Sure, sure, sir. And sir, any sense on how competition has behaved in this environment, sir, in terms of pricing or impact of tariffs? Hello?

So everybody is in the same boat. I mean we are not sure of how they have done the cost sharing. But the tariff has impacted everybody, even if there's a local manufacturer, his raw materials are coming from Asia, so they would have got impacted with the tariffs.

Okay. So the pricing gap between us and the competition, even after the increase in tariff is largely of similar magnitude?

Yes. It should be.

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Siddhartha Bera from Nomura. Please go ahead.

Sir, first question, again, on this U.S. tariffs. I understand the tariffs came sometime during the quarter and not for the entire quarter. So will it be possible to share like of the total U.S. revenues for us in Q1? What percentage has got impacted by the tariffs?

It came on 9th April, if we are not wrong. So that's practically the whole quarter, no? But you're right, it did not come for the whole quarter, but 9 days into the quarter. So it has impacted the whole quarter only practically.

Okay. Because U.S. volumes have seen a good jump in the quarter. So this is despite the entire quarter being under tariff. And despite that, we have seen a good pickup in the U.S. volumes. Is it the right way to look at it?

So -- I mean, if you look at it this way, it was originally pre 9th April. It was 26%, which came down. So that -- as I mentioned in my commentary that there was some normalcy, which has come in. So they have been buying because of this revised tariff. Now we are waiting for the final note what happens once the governments agree on some tariff rate. We will come to know what the long-term normalcy will be. It's too early to comment before that.

But sir, generally, what is the thought process like -- because we understand that it may go up even further. So you plan to sort of pass on the entire cost or you probably want to continue with the current scenario of 60%?

So what we have seen is we were quick to come to a cost -sharing basis, which has impacted in this quarter. So we will take a call once we have final numbers in front of us. We don't want to comment anything until the final numbers are there, what is the tariff basis? Is it this level higher, lower? We don't know anything. So without knowing anything, it's very difficult to comment.

Got it, sir. Sir, lastly, on the capex side, would you have any further color like INR3,500 crores we had highlighted will be the next 3 years. Any possible breakup into what can go into TBR, PCR? And how should we understand the ramp-up to be in the next 2, 3 years, if you have some thoughts there?

No, we are not sharing the breakup of that. We've announced an overall capex, which we will be doing in the next 3 years -- which will come in line in the next 3 years.

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Rishi Vora from Kotak Securities. Please go ahead.

Sir, my first question is on the realized forex losses. So you highlighted that our hedge rate was INR93.6 for the quarter, Euro-INR, but the full quarter average was around INR97. So why is our losses lesser for the quarter? Can you just explain that math on how it works? How do we hedge -- like what is our hedging policy? Do we hedge 100% of our first year exposure? Or is it like 50%, 60%, 70%? Ravi Joshi Rishi, so it will not be prudent to compare the normal average with what hedge rate was mentioned. It also accounts for the timing differences, wherein the PCFC was taken earlier, then there was a realization or repayment against that as well as the sales was booked at a different rate in the books. And then the debtor realization happens at a different rate. So it will not be prudent and probably you will not be end up doing the right math that taking an average of a quarter and then comparing it with what we realized.

The second quarter will be more reflective of this quarter's spot rate?

It all depends on what rate prevails at that point in time, at what rate we have booked the sales in our books.

Understood. And our hedging policy would be like 1 year revenue expectation, everything we would be hedging or it's lesser than that?

Yes, we keep on rolling basis and that too very conservative. We only hedge 80% of net receivable, which end up probably 30%, 35% of gross euro revenue. We don't hedge anything on dollars.

Understood. I'm assuming dollar would be naturally hedged because commodity...

Naturally hedged, yes.

Understood. And my second question is pertaining to full year margin guidance given where we are in terms of commodity tariff pricing. Like any broader guidelines you could share at least in terms of margins or any headwinds, tailwinds you see going into t he financial -- into the subsequent quarters?

So we have already given the margin guidance in the even last quarter. It will be around 24%, 25%.

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Abhishek Kumar Jain from AlfAccurate. Please go ahead.

So my question was on the European Union. So that has imposed many sanctions on the Russia like that trade restriction on the machinery and Russian oil. So just wanted to understand how do you see direct and indirect impact on your business in Europe?

We don't buy any machinery or direct raw material from Russia. Oil may be coming and some derivatives of the oils locally, I don't know what way it is coming. But otherwise, we are not impacted from that.

Okay, sir. And you are also falling into the TBR and the PCR segment. So just wanted to understand when we'll start the commercial production and how much operating cost will increase in the near term because of this?

June, July '26.

June, July '26?

: Yes.

Okay. And how much operating cost will increase because of this in the near term in the next 1 or 2 quarters?

: This, we cannot comment, I think.

It's at normal levels. There's no increase or decrease. It's at the normal level.

So it will be 2 months or 3 months?

Between 2 and 3 months.

Okay, sir. Thanks sir. That’s all from my side.

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Joseph George from IIFL. Please go ahead.

I just have one question. You mentioned that the euro realization in the coming quarters would be closer to the existing market rate, whereas last quarter, it was INR93, INR94. So what I want to check is -- and you also mentioned that you are maintaining your margin guidance of 24%, 25%. Now this euro benefit that you're getting is a significant amount. So do you not expect that to flow down to the bottom line? Or do you think it will be competed away because there will be other players as well who are exporting from India, and they will also have similar advantages?

No. So I think the volume impact will come, as we're saying there is uncertainty. So that may come and have some impact on the running cost, fixed cost, and other costs. and the duties which were unaccounted for will have also come in place. So I mean, a lot of things at this stage are very open to give a comment. And as far as the EBITDA guidance is, we mentioned that we strive to be in this range. There will be a couple of quarters which will be higher and a couple of quarters, which will be lower. The higher quarters are not a benchmark and the lower quarters are one-off kind of scenario, but we will strive to be in that range.

Fair enough. Thank you. That’s all I had.

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Vishal Dudhwala from Trinetra Asset Managers. Please go ahead.

I have a couple of questions. First, with global OTR tire demand set to grow mid-single digit in FY '26, driven by uneven monsoons in India and rising construction activity and export market. How are you calibrating production and segment anything of agri and OTR to capture that growth without compromising margins?

So we produce only against order. We do not produce to stock. So as the orders are coming, we are producing as per that. And already, I mentioned in my opening remarks that the product mix had some difference. That's why the EBITDA margin was slightly impa cted. So that we will take it as per the demand. Very early to comment on what will come and where.

It is in testing phase, and we will give you more commentary on that towards the end of this year.

Okay. And one last follow-up question on your Europe side. Like can you provide an update on the execution of your TBR capacity expansion plan for that region?

So as I mentioned, all the expansion that we have announced is going as per schedule. I will not be giving individual breakup.

The next question is from the line of Chirag Maroo from Keynote Capital.

Sir, first thing, I would like to know what is the mix of Carbon Black in our total sales?

What is the mix of Carbon Black in our?

Total sales?

Approximately 9%.

And sir, will it be possible for you to provide volume numbers too?

No.

Okay. Sir, second thing I would like to know is that -- as we are adding new product lines like PCR and related to commercial vehicle as well as the passenger vehicle, I wanted to understand your philosophy and thought process, what would be our right to w in in this segment, as we were earlier completely focused into majorly Off-Highway tires?

So first, there is no dilution of our focus in Off -Highway tires. I'd like to make that statement very, very clearly. Then the second point is we are looking at the market keenly in finding the white spaces and the areas where to play. So we have a strateg y which cannot be unfolded at this stage. But we are looking at the market keenly and devising our own strategy. And I think we will surprise the market positively.

Fair enough. Sir, secondly, I wanted to know -- as you said that the product mix shift towards India has led to dilution of gross margins, could you just give us a ballpark to understand it better, what is the pricing differential in the international market compared to India?

It's marginally maybe about 0.5% to 1% lower. You're talking about margin, right?

No, sir. I'm talking about realization. Like if we sell it for INR100 in India, what will be the selling price in the international market. So it would be easier for us to understand like if the mix shifts towards India, there can be dilution taking place in GPM level?

Around -- it fluctuates between different product mix, but you can take a range of 8% to 10% lower.

On the margin front, it would be between 0.5% and 1%.

EBITDA level, it would be 0.5% to 1% only?

Yes.

Okay. Fair. And sir, just wanted to understand, are we on track for the rubber track expansion by H2 '26?

Yes, yes.

The next question is from the line of Hemang from Anvil. Please go ahead.

Sir, I wanted to check that since we are doing 20% from India over the next 5 years, so you just said the gross margins would be diluted. So there will be an impact on EBITDA margin because the staff cost is higher in India comparatively -- as in we don't have the labor arbitrage for Indian products?

So as I mentioned in the last meeting that despite all of our new businesses and India market strategy, everything, we expect blended margins post full commercialization to be in the range of 23% to 25% and we will strive to maintain that.

Sir, just thought how will we have an advantage in passenger cars and TBR, which we are planning because we have many other competitors in Indian market whose margins are in the range of 16%.

I made these announcements in my last quarterly when I announced our 5-year plan. So if you've seen that we had mentioned that we will be entering into premium categories and radial categories, and there will be superior product mix, and we'll have some op erational advantages put together, which will help us maintain these numbers.

Sure. All the best, sir. And sir, in terms of near-term challenges, anything on the volume outlook, which we did around 300,015 tons this year?

As I mentioned earlier, it's too early to comment on volume guidance.

The next question is from the line of Raghunandhan from Nuvama Research.

Firstly, on the 30,000 capacity of advanced Carbon Black, has the revenues commenced from this business? How do you see the ramp-up in FY '26?

Not significantly, it is still in the trial stage. And end of the calendar year, we expect to ramp up this business.

Got it. And on the track side, how much would be the share of tracks in our revenue currently? And given that the new capacity will come up in H2, how do you see the ramp-up there?

My question was to Satish, sir. How big would be the current BKT dealer network in India? And would you be using the current network for TBR, PCR? How do you look at the strategy on distribution of new products? Would you be leveraging it? Or would you be building it from the scratch, especially to target PCR segment?

Raghu, the approach and philosophy of distribution will, by and large, be the same. And that's where the leverage in terms of positive points will come, but the distribution per se largely will be newly made. So some part of it might overlap, a very little portion. But largely, it will be a fresh start.

Got it, sir. That would mean that there will be a gestation period for building a network and capturing that 5% market share? And would that be the reason why you're targeting 2030 for that market share target?

Yes. I mean, that amount of time will be required to go from 0% to 5%, whichever way you look at it. And our product, like we said in an earlier question, comes out in the middle part of next year. And this is a time gestation period, which we will be using to build the distribution.

Got it, sir. And just a clarification on how big would be the existing network of Balkrishna in India?

We will be having close to about 70-odd distributors distributors.

The next question is from the line of Chirag Maroo from Keynote Capital.

Sir, will it be possible going forward to give some segmental numbers, as Carbon Black has already reached almost 9 percentage of the sales, so we can get some segmental bifurcation on sales and operating margins.

At this moment, we are not giving the breakup. So we'll see in the future if we decide to share it.

No issues. Sir, secondly, will it be possible for you to give us what kind of market size the rubber track product would have at this moment, just to understand how big is the market?

So market is huge with our current capacity in the future one, which we have announced. Even if we get there, we will be looking at about 3% to 5% of the market share.

Fair enough. Okay. Thank you, sir.

Thank you. As there are no further questions from the participants, I now hand the conference over to Mr. Rajiv Poddar for closing comments.

I would like to thank all of you once again for taking the time out and we'll see you again next quarter. Thank you. Stay safe till then.

On behalf of Balkrishna Industries Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us and you may now disconnect your lines.