CG Power and Industrial Solutions Limited

FY2024 Q4

2024-05-06 Transcript PDF
Moderator

First question is from the line of Mohit Kumar from ICICI Securities.

ICICI Securities

My first question is on the order inflow for the particular quarter, especially for Industrial is up by 33% Q -O-Q and 45% Y -O-Y. Can you please throw some more details on this Industrial uptick and is it primarily of Railways or is ex-Railways business which has shown the uptick.

Natarajan Srinivasan

So, the Industrial consists of both Motors and Railways, there’s a large part of the order inflow has come from Railways, s o that ’s speaks of the higher order inflow for this quarter.

ICICI Securities

The last few calls you said that the Industrial Motor business is slightly on the in the sense, there is a lower activity. Are you seeing any uptick now? Do you think this will come post the election?

Natarajan Srinivasan

Exactly. So, we feel that the situation will be clearly known after the elections right now, because of the elections the activi ties and some of the projects going slow , etc., are quite visible. So, I think we will have to wait for one more quarter for the activity to pick up.

ICICI Securities

Sir, my second question is on the semiconductor opportunity. Is it possible to comment on the timelines when do you think you will be giving us more details or some or when do you think the revenues will start flowing for this particular segment. I t can help us to understand what is the right to win in this segment?

Natarajan Srinivasan

So, I think, one thing it is a long gestation project, it will take about four years to implement the project. So, right to win is, I think there is a huge amount of demand, the fact that government wants these projects to come up with substantial help from them speaks of a huge demand. I think the whole semiconductor industry is growing globally. It’s growing in India also, complete dependence on imports, expected to be a good amount of demand. So, we are also partnering some of the world leaders with some amount of buyback of the finished product. With all this we expect , once the project is well implemented I think there is a right to win always ; that should not be a problem.

ICICI Securities

When do you think that the revenues from this particular segment will start contributing to the top line?

Natarajan Srinivasan

It will take four years at least.

Moderator

The next question is from the line of Rahul Gajare from Haitong Securities Limited. Please go ahead.

Haitong Securities Limited

Sir, can you talk about the volume growth in the Industrial segment, because I believe that given the competition, we have seen pricing pressure? Can you talk about the volume growth that you have seen in the 4th Quarter and full year? And also, whether the competitive intensity have already eased to some extent, that’s the first question.

Ramesh Kumar

See from Quarter 3 onwards, it has shown positive , Quarter 3 standalone is about 15%, so for January and February the growth results have come. It is almost about 12%. The market volume growth I am talking about, and CG is also at the same level.

Haitong Securities Limited

The intensity has begun to ease?

Ramesh Kumar

No, because if you see the copper prices also have suddenly gone up in last 1-1.5 month by $1000. So, as long as the commodities are stable, it is very difficult to predict the price realization in the market.

Haitong Securities Limited

So, my second question is with res pect to the revenue on the Industrial segment, I think in the 3rd Quarter, you did indicate that there was some revenue deferral of almost some Rs. 35 crore rupees, first whether that revenue deferred has already been booked in the 4th Quarter and are there any more deferrals that also , you are seeing in the Industrial segment?

Susheel Todi

No, we never said in the Industrial System, it was actually in the Power System.

ICICI Securities

Okay, so that Rs. 35 crore was in the Power segment.

Susheel Todi

Yes.

ICICI Securities

So, my last question is on, given that you all are adding significant capacity both in Transformer and Motor, and I think Transformer was supposed to get commissioned in the 4th Quarter. Are there any thoughts on adding manufacturing capacity on the Drives side given that there is a strong Industrial demand and limited players , and obviously better profitability? What is your though t on adding capacity in India, because right now your Sweden capacity is full?

Natarajan Srinivasan

So, we are working on various options to grow this Drives business. We have a unit in Sweden. So, along with them , how do we increase that currently is under discussion. Certainly, our focus is to grow this business multifold. We have not firmed up our actions yet. It may be including increasing capacity, maybe one of the options.

ICICI Securities

Are you looking at doing some manufacturing in India or if you are looking at adding capacity in Sweden?

Natarajan Srinivasan

Currently it’s not yet finalized ; we are just looking at various options.

Moderator

The next question is from the line of Subhadip Mitra from Nuvama Wealth. Please go ahead. Subhadip Mitra: Firstly, Sir, with regards to Power segment, it is quite strong in the current quarter. Margins are also seeing an up tick. Would we say that margins are maintainable in these high teen ranges, or is it that there is some one off in this quarter?

Natarajan Srinivasan

So, there is no one off actually. As just my colleague in previous questions has said copper prices have gone up. By and large if the material prices stay where they are, I think we may be able to maintain margins in this segment as projected. Subhadip Mitra: Understood. Also, with regard to the Railways segment, because as you mentioned earlier that the Railways and the Power segments seem to be the larger or the high growth segments right now, whereas probably the Industrial segment is on a slightly lower pace of growth. So, how would you see the overall margins behaving? Would we see that the higher growth and the higher margin in Power and Railways segments more than offset the slight weakness on the Industrial margin?

Natarajan Srinivasan

We have discussed this margin question a number of times. We can’t assume that the margins in Industrial will be lower , post - elections as we said, things improve dramatically it can come back. We are a very high -volume player. We have the advan tage of economies of scale in Motors. Therefore, we can ’t say that Motors what have been whatever is there in the last two couple of quarters based on that I am not willing to conclude margins would be lower in Motors number one. See Railways and Power both are tender business. I don ’t get my price separately. I have to bid to win the order. Therefore, in Railways for example again there’s stiff competition. If I quote well and then competitively I will get volumes and then orders will flow but at the same time margins you have to work on, it is not granted. Compared to price what we get, suppose you get a lower price you have to work how to manage the cost and how to make up the volume, etc., is not going to be easy. So, overall, I think we are doing our best. So, it is very difficult to comment on margins. Subhadip Mitra: Understood. And sir would you be able to give us some details on the Railways business, what was the top line or what is the existing order book?

Natarajan Srinivasan

So, I would say that we will have a strong growth this year , at least we can grow 40% in the top-line in Railways. Subhadip Mitra: And what was the sales in the current year in Railways?

Susheel Todi

For a full year, it remains the same range around Rs. 1300+ crore. Subhadip Mitra: And any details on the order book, how much order book would you have right now in Railways specifically?

Natarajan Srinivasan

So, I have told you that we will be able to grow about 40% this year. We don’t generally separately discuss Railways. Subhadip Mitra: I understand. So, last is, naturally we have been quite enthused by how you have been tying up on the various offerings on the Railways side and clearly targeting being a propulsion part ner in the forthcoming bid. Is there any p rogress on that in terms of tie -ups with regard to Railways, qualifying or sanctioning your prototypes?

Natarajan Srinivasan

So, we are not in the stage where we can disclose something, but though the efforts are continuing and are in advanced stage.

Moderator

The next question is from the line of Harshit Patel from Equirus securities. Please go ahead.

Equirus Securities

Sir. EV Motors you had earlier indicated that the supplies might start post-FY24 maybe in ‘25 or ‘26. So, could you share an update on the development program and the potential customers?

Ramesh Kumar

We don ’t want to disclose right now, but we have developed one application, protos are under testing , and another two different applications we are in advanced stage of design . Once the testing and everything is done, then we w ill be giving to one or two OEMs for testing and getting the approvals , so that we can be in the market.

Equirus Securities

So, sir, not only the Motor, but even controller will be in-house?

Ramesh Kumar

Yes, when I say Motor it is Motor and controller. We don ’t develop anything separately. It is all developed together.

Equirus Securities

Understood. So, secondly, on the Railways front, we were working with the Korean Company for the propulsion system of train sets so how has been the progress over there and do we have to pay a royalty to that company on a continuous basis or we will just pay a onetime fee?

Natarajan Srinivasan

We can’t disclose all this information. The work is going on. It will get completed maybe by June or so, but we can ’t disclose all commercial information.

Equirus Securities

No problem. So, just a small bookkeeping question, you previously mentioned that we want to take the share of exports to around 20% within Motors in the next three to four years. So, what was that share of exports in Financial Year ‘24?

Ramesh Kumar

So, we are somewhere around 3% to 4% as of now, but we are now working on building the organization across, so we are on track.

Natarajan Srinivasan

So, this has to be coterminous with the capacity expansi on. We can’t take any steps now. S uppose if we get orders, we wil l not be able to supply. So, the target is to do it in the next couple of financial years and beyond.

Moderator

The next question is from the line of Renu Baid from IIFL Securities. Please go ahead.

IIFL Securities

Sir. My first question is, given the global demand supply mismatches in the power equipment market, especially T &D, how do we plan to leverage this and also increase our exports. Do we have any thoughts on this?

Natarajan Srinivasan

Thoughts are there but there is no capacity.

IIFL Securities

So, practically from on ground capacity, where are we in terms o f setting up an export facilities beyond the domestic demand requirements in the next couple of years or our hands are full with domestic and export is at the back burner for now?

Natarajan Srinivasan

Currently, our Power Transformer, we are doubling from 17,000 MVA to 35,000 MVA. Similarly, Distribution Transformer, we are also increasing the capacity by 50%. E ven if I double it from here , domestic demand will eat away all this demand . Collectively, what we are doing is only selective orders with high margins and where payment security is there, we are considering for exports. So, we are struggling to see how we can expand the capacity. There are no inorganic opportunities much, organically if we start doing it will take more time . Just the current expansion will have to be completed before we take up something else. So, today, the question is really different.

IIFL Securities

Got it. Sure. Secondly, within the Industrial System, we also have the consumer product portfolio, can you share some inputs in terms of how was the performance of this segment for the 4th Quarter and overall, for Fiscal ‘24?

Natarajan Srinivasan

Overall, this year, I think the industry itself did not do well, so we have also not done that well. In fact, this business for the last two years has been small, and we are a marginal player here. But plans are of course to make this big, we are working hard. You will see some action here from now onwards to increase this business. Ramesh you want to add?

Ramesh Kumar

No. What you said is right. As rightly NS said, we have initiated the action and definitely you will see something happening there.

IIFL Securities

So, was this business flattish , grew by mid-teen, did not grow, any color qualitative or quantitative?

Natarajan Srinivasan

Industry has degrown. We have marginally grown actually.

IIFL Securities

And secondly, on the Industrial Systems, do we have any views on the likelihood of implementation of the shift from IE2 to IE3 range of Motors as the technology base or it’s still some time away for now?

Ramesh Kumar

See complete shift can happen only if the government regulation comes. But today, if you see almost IE3 and IE4 together is crossed 50%. So, obviously now customers are looking at more and more high-efficient products , so once the regulation comes then entire shift will happen to IE3.

IIFL Securities

And any view on , the likelihood of this regulation coming in Fiscal ‘25?

Ramesh Kumar

It would have come long back, but we don’t know.

IIFL Securities

Sir, we did mention about our targets to expand the portfolio of the HT Motors in larger applications lik e nuclear power in terms of pre - qualifications and other criteria, s o where are we and do you think with many large NPCIL projects lined up in pipeline, we will be able to participate in the opportunities?

Ramesh Kumar

We are already participating, and we are getting good orders also, but execution will take time because these orders execution take almost about two years , today if we get the order, the execution starts after two years. So, we are well in NPCIL and we are there in almost all the tenders and we are getting good orders also.

Moderator

The next question is from the line of Akash from Dalal & Broacha. Please go ahead.

Akash

One question from my side was pertaining to Railways. So, in Railways we cater to which kind of trains, a re we catering to Vande Bharat and then new Vande Metro and are our motors being supplied to those kind of trains or?

Natarajan Srinivasan

Motors are not supplied. Chidambaram you want to answer this question?

C. Balakrishnan

Currently we are serving the traditional locomotive market and end of this year we will begin serving the Vande Sadharan, Vande Metro and Vande Bharat, all the three.

Akash

Okay. And what ex actly are we supplying Drives, Transformers, Motors, Switchgears?

C. Balakrishnan

For the Vande Bharat, we will be supplying the entire Propulsion System and the Motors.

Moderator

The next question is from the line of Aditya from Kotak Securities. Please go ahead.

Aditya

My first question was more to the timeline for the n ew capacity for the Motors business, when are they expected to start contributing to our top-line?

Natarajan Srinivasan

So, it will happen in stages, I think probably next financial year.

Aditya

Understood. So, basically exports should start kind of becoming better from Fiscal Year ‘25 is what you are suggesting right?

Natarajan Srinivasan

Yes.

Aditya

Could you also give us overall guidance on revenues for next year that would be useful?

Natarajan Srinivasan

We don’t give any guidance.

Aditya

Just on the quarter gone by, since you suggested that Railways had meaningfully contributed, could you give us a sense of from an order input perspective where the growth happening at this point of time?

Natarajan Srinivasan

No. So, in the press release we have already given what are the order inflow and things like that , complete details of what is the unexecuted order book and the order in flow, both the details have been given. Power Sector and also the Railways, all the three of them have got good orders.

Aditya

Just a final question from my side, just because you said that there was a deferral of revenues in the Power segment , should we be seeing margins at the average level of 3rd Quarter and 4th Quarter or do you think that the margin in the 4th Quarter is also sustainable?

Natarajan Srinivasan

I think we answered this question earlier. It depends on the way the commodity prices are moving. If the prices go up, my colleague also mentioned that copper prices have gone up by 10% in the last one month or so. So, it depends on the commodity prices, if they stay where they are then probably w e can hope to sustain these margins.

Aditya

Sure. Just a last question from my side. On the automation side of things, you talked about drives as being an imponderable in the near term, kind of extending into the adjacent business of automation, when would that start becoming an important focus area for us? Would it be FY’25, FY‘26, just trying to get a sense.

Natarajan Srinivasan

We can’t commit on any timelines. We want to grow this drives business. We never said automation. We want to grow the drives business. I can’t put any timeline.

Moderator

The next question is from the line of Garvit Goyal from Nvest Analysis Advisors. Please go ahead.

Nvest Analysis Advisors

My first question is on the Power System. So, we saw a significant growth in the Power System in FY24, so at industry level, what is the outlook for FY25, how the things are shaping up, are you witnessing any kind of slow down due to elections going ahead?

Natarajan Srinivasan

So, Power systems we have both Transformer and Switchgear, so the order book details we have shown a good amount of order book, good amount of enquiries. We don’t expect any slowdown here.

Nvest Analysis Advisors

Okay. And on the Semiconductor side, just to understand a bit from you, we are entering into OSAT. So, when we say we are entering into OSAT, so does it mean it will come from outside India on ly and we are there for assembly and packaging part. So, if that is the case can you explain like, who will be our potential customers here?

Natarajan Srinivasan

So, this is too early to answer this question. This is a completely new line of business it will take some more time. I think this is a project itself will take about three to four years to complete . Maybe as we go, things will shape up then we can share the information as we go on, it is too early now.

Nvest Analysis Advisors

And lastly, Sir, Mr. Ramesh has been recently appointed as Additional Director for a Company manufacturing into Power Semiconductor. So, is it any way related to your entry into OSAT?

Natarajan Srinivasan

Definitely, w hatever requirements can be met, but our requirement will be a miniscule of what is going to be manufactured.

Moderator

The next question is from the line of our Avish from Chanakya Capital. Please go ahead.

Avish

I just had one question, the question was, can you give me a break up of the Motor and Railways division in the Industrial and also transformers and Switchgears break up in the Power Systems?

Susheel Todi

Between the Transformers and Switchgear is 45-55.

Avish

And in Motor and Railways Industrial.

Susheel Todi

Railway is almost 30% of the Industrial business.

Moderator

The next question is from the line of Bhavik Shah from MK Ventures. Please go ahead.

MK Ventures

Sir, you just mentioned on the call that we are seeing very strong demand in the Transformers side and like even if you add more capacity, the demand will get eaten up. So, what is stopping us from adding capacity, like is there any constraint which you are facing?

Natarajan Srinivasan

We are already expanding from 17,000 MVA, we are doubling the capacity to 35,000 M VA in the Power Transformer. Similarly, in the Distribution Transformer, we are adding 50% capacity. So, these are what we can do within the existing premises in our current setup . So, this has to be completed a nd then only we can think where we can do ext ra, whether organic, inorganic , etc. Just like that we cannot keep on adding capacities.

MK Ventures

You see the demand sustaining for the next 2-4 years in this sector? How do you see the outlook here?

Natarajan Srinivasan

I think demand can be sustaine d for next at least five years, o r beyond that, I am just saying, because it is all linked to derived demand. So, what is happening in substations, what is happening in the renewable capacity, new capacities are being created in the renewables segment so like this, there are lot of other activities are happening to increase the power capacity itself. Therefore , demand for Transformer and Switchgear is going up on account of that.

MK Ventures

This you are talking about only for the domestic part. You can also cater to the export part, which is we are not looking there right now, right?

Natarajan Srinivasan

We are doing a little bit o f exports, both the Transformer and Switchgear we are exporting.

MK Ventures

Is there a difference in margin? Do we see better margins in exports or domestic margins and export margins are the same?

Natarajan Srinivasan

It will be case -by-case depending on the delivery period, depending upon what is the range , currency, so many issues are there, but if the margins are lower we will not export.

Moderator

The next question is from the line of Abhineet Anand from 3P Investor Managers. Please go ahead.

3P Investor Managers

This PT capacity increase, so what could be the revenue potential for that, Sir?

Natarajan Srinivasan

Ajay, you want to answer this question?

Ajay Jain

So, we will be doubling our manufacturing capacity and so the revenues will also double over the next two to three years.

3P Investor Managers

Just trying to understand at the current pricing, what could that let’s say the 17,000 M VA that you talked about incremental, what could that mean in terms of revenue on current pricing or commodity?

Ajay Jain

Should be around Rs 1800 crores.

3P Investor Managers

Can you also help us with the DT capacity that we have presently and which we are increasing by 50%?

Ajay Jain

The DT capacity as of now is around 5500 MVA and that will go around the 8500 MVA to 9000 MVA. And in revenue terms, we will grow from Rs. 450 crores to somewhere around Rs. 700 crores.

3P Investor Managers

When both of these coming on stream, Sir?

Natarajan Srinivasan

So, it will take another one year, another 12 months at least.

3P Investor Managers

It’s not in a phased manner, the first revenue apart from the 17k will come, let’s mean FY26, from 17k to 34k that you are talking about will come in FY26 only, or it will come in a phased manner?

Ajay Jain

No, it will come after completion only.

Moderator

The next question is from the line of Rajesh Vora from Jainmay Venture. Please go ahead.

Jainmay Venture

Mr. Chidambaram explained that by FY25 end there will be Vande Bharat supply will begin of motor, propulsion system and all that. And this year we are expe cting 40% growth as mentioned b y Mr. Srinivasan. So, could you explain a little bit in detail what is driving this significant growth and are we directly going to supply Vande Bharat, or it will be via other players? C. Balakrishnan Vande Bharat, we will be supplying directly to Indian Railways and other companies we are discussing with who got the complete train set orders, and this is how we want to enter Vande Bharat . Vande Sadharan and Vande Metros, they will be made by Rail Coach Factory in Kapurthala, or Modern Coach Factory in Raebareli, o r Integral Coach factory in Chennai. So, we might be supplying the composite converters and Motors directly to Indian Railways only to these production units. And what is driving the growth ? Railways used to traditionally manufacture around 1200 locomotives, they have gone up to 1500 locomotives this year . And t here is a limitation of approved supplier, approvals and propulsion system generally takes around three years’ time. So, we are one of the approved suppliers that gives us the privilege and we got the increased orders.

Jainmay Venture

Other than your Company who are the other propulsion supplier approved for Indian Railways. Is it Minda?

Natarajan Srinivasan

We cannot comment on that. We have no idea who are the other companies.

Moderator

The next question is from t he line of Amit Anwani from PL Capital. Please go ahead.

PL Capital

My question is with respect to , you mentioned in your opening remark about the intense competition in LT Motors. So, just wanted to understand from you how much is the LT Motors contribution and within the overall Motors market since LT Motor segment you mentioned is dec lining any parts or end users industry where the Motor demand is seeing ramp up and how is our strategy to deal with the LT Motor facing competition ? Is there any product mix change which you are looking for? Anything you would like to highlight on the Motor side.

Natarajan Srinivasan

LT Motors forms the larger part of the overall Motors. The Motor size of the business the LT Motors occupy almost about 60%. So, then for your questions, product mix strategy, etc., I cannot disclose. We cannot disclose this in the call actually and we will see what kind of product mix, what the market wants, what product we should produce, where my contribution is higher. There are so many products are there and for what we will do , etc., These are internal and of course, we are working on this day in and day out. It is difficult to make those kind of details public.

PL Capital

So, how much was LT Motors contribution in FY24?

Natarajan Srinivasan

Do you mean share?

Natarajan Srinivasan

If you take Industrial Systems, take out Railways about 70%

PL Capital

And the remaining 70%, 85% is from Motors, right? Natarajan Srinivasan Correct.

PL Capital

And just one clarification on the Railways side, so the 30% which is coming from Railways is all coming from propulsion system is it right understanding?

Natarajan Srinivasan

No, we have different products.

Moderator

I now hand the conference over to Ms. Renu Baid for closing comments, over to you.

Renu Baid Pugalia

On behalf of IIFL Securities, I would like to thank the Management and the participants for their interactive session. I would now like to hand over the call to Mr. Srinivasan for h is closing remarks. Thank you and over to you, Sir.

Natarajan Srinivasan

Thank you, Renu and other participants for their participation and asking questions. I have nothing more to say. Thank you again.

Moderator

Thank you. On behalf of IIFL Securities Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us and you may now disconnect your lines.