GHCL Limited

FY2027 Q1

2026-08-03 Transcript PDF
Moderator

Thank you very much. We will now begin the question -and-answer session. The first question is from the line of Rohit Nagraj from 360 ONE Capital.

360 ONE Capital

Congrats on good performance. Sir, first question is on the Vacuum Salt and Bromine project. You alluded that the project will be scaling up during FY27. So, in FY28, can we expect optimal utilization from both the projects?

R.S. Jalan

Yes, Rohit, you can 100% assume that.

360 ONE Capital

Perfect. And at optimal utilization. Any guidance in terms of what could be the revenue potential and consolidated basis EBITDA margins?

R.S. Jalan

Roughly it will be around INR150 crores, INR160 crores of revenue and the margin will be in the range of around 40% to 45% kind of EBITDA margin.

360 ONE Capital

Got that. Got that. And sir, second question, you also mentioned in your commentary that there have been certain shutdowns which have been taken. Which geographies are these? And are these going to last for longer than the normal shutdowns? What is your ta ke on the overall industry perspective?

R.S. Jalan

So Rohit, in terms of the closure, which I spoke about is mainly in China. Of course, as you know, one of the plants in the U.S. also got closed. But I think this short-term closure is primarily on the Chinese side.

360 ONE Capital

Okay. Good. Just one last clarification. In terms of imports during the quarter, the imports were at the same level or we saw some kind of decline given that the freight rates have gone up materially?

R.S. Jalan

China -- sorry, in terms of the import, if you look at as compared to last quarter, it has gone up. But if you look at as compared to the Q1 of the same last year, marginal increase has happened -- sorry, dip has happened.

Moderator

The next question is from the line of Dhruv from Vyoma Capital.

R.S. Jalan

In terms of the pricing, the view has to be taken in terms of whether these are the sustainable prices or the prices are going to be more normalized. Our understanding is this is at this point of a time, as you know, the Chinese -- all the major producers are making cash losses. So, my understanding is this should not be considered as a kind of a price going forward. Of course, let the project be kind of -- we have to take a little longer because you know all these kind of soda ash plant are not made for 1 or 2 years. It is 100 years kind of a project. So therefore, a longer view has to be taken. And if you take a long er view, I would say that you can assume the kind of numbers which we have given in the past.

Dhruv

Okay, sir. That was really helpful. My second question has 2 parts. So first, I want to delve into the specific reason for the delay in the project. And by when do we expect construction to actually commence and the project to become operational in Q2 or Q3 specifically? And another question I have is, apart from this planned project, is there any other capacity likely to coming on stream in India over the next few years?

R.S. Jalan

See, so far as our understanding is concerned, Dhruv, we are -- at this point of the time, of course, not a major capacity has been announced by any of the competition. And in terms of the hurdles, as we have mentioned in the past also, we are primarily on the land acquisitions, primarily on the land acquisition kind of a thing. So -- and we don't know at this point of time, I will not be able to tell you the guidance of how much time it is going to take. And therefore, once we get some kind of a clarity, we will come back to the shareholders for giving a clear guidelines on how -- when this project will start.

Dhruv

Okay, my second part was not answered, like are we having another planned project in terms of another capacity or something?

R.S. Jalan

I thought that you are talking about the competition, but okay, in terms of -- at this point of time, our plan is only the two projects, which I have mentioned earlier, which has got implemented now and the revenue will be coming maybe in the fourth quarter of this year. And in the last -- next year, you can get a full benefit of that. Other than the Greenfield projects, we don't have at this point of time, any other projects in pipeline.

Moderator

The next question is from the line of Rohit Sinha from Sunidhi Securities.

Sunidhi Securities

Congratulations for a decent set of numbers. So, one is just on the dividend payout policy for us. Given the kind of cash generation right now we are having and strong cash in the books, any plan to increase the dividend payout in near term?

R.S. Jalan

See, if you look at Rohit, the last 3 years, we have given around 80% -- 87% of the payment of the payout has been done by way of 2 things. One is the dividend and one is the buyback, okay? And going forward, we will be definitely Board will be looking at the possibility and the payout

was approximately around 25% payout we are seeing the policy, right? Now it depends upon how the situation goes, and we will surely kind of recommend to the Board to take a view of how to kind of reward the shareholders.

Sunidhi Securities

Got it. And sir, in your opening remarks, as you mentioned that there is some realization benefit also and increase in realization benefit also in soda ash. So we wanted to know how much increase was there on the prices on a Y-on-Y basis or quarter-on-quarter basis?

R.S. Jalan

See Rohit, if you look at in terms of the -- which I said in my opening remarks also, this was a combination, the benefit which you are seeing, which is a combination of 3, 4 things. One was the price elevation and the second was the kind of inventory and the efficiency which we are -- and if we see that, that overall, what is in our control is the control on our efficiencies, cost reductions and this we are continuously doing it. In terms of your specific on the realization, this is kind of slightly volatile situation, right? So probably, I would say that let's talk about more on the margin side because the prices maybe at what price was there in the last month may not be sustained, which was not there in the month of June or May was different, June was different. So I think we would like to more focus on the margin part of it.

Sunidhi Securities

Okay. Okay. But I was actually looking at the angle that since the logistic issues are there right now, and we may be anticipating there would be lower imports, although in this quarter, there was slightly higher export as compared to last quarter. But sti ll given the high logistic cost, I was of the view that there would be still some price benefit left for us maybe in the coming quarter as well.

R.S. Jalan

See, like I said, Rohit, if you look at -- I said in my opening remarks that let's don't talk about the quarter-on-quarter basis. Let's talk about a longer-term view in terms of year as a whole. And as I mentioned, you should assume kind of a normalization in the margin.

Sunidhi Securities

Got it. sir, one last question on the power cost. Maybe as we are looking at, again, elevated crude prices. So on a normalized basis, what we should expect would be our power cost in terms of -- as a percentage of our revenue going forward? And any plan to look at to bring it down?

R.S. Jalan

See Rohit, like I said, in terms of the efficiency, in terms of the internal efficiency, cost reduction, that's the kind of a project which is always there in our kind of a pipeline. And in terms of the power cost, like depending upon how the situation looks like, you should be assuming that this power cost will be kind of in the range bound only. And like in this -- maybe in the last quarter could have been slightly lower because of the inventory gains and things like that, which can be slightly higher. I mean if you look at the

longer-term view, probably you'll see that percentage will be almost barring the efficiency which we improve, things will be normal kind of a thing.

Moderator

The next question is from the line of Disha from Trinetra Asset Managers.

Disha

My one question was, could you please provide an update on the Greenfield Soda Ash project? Like could you throw some more light like is there any changes in the project cost or implementation time line or expected commissioning date because this project was also delayed. So, is there any changes in the plan? And given the current global oversupply, has the expected return profile changed?

R.S. Jalan

As per my understanding at this point of time, the challenge which we are facing is more towards the -- major challenge is more towards the land acquisition and which I have mentioned in the past also. And at this point of time, I'm unable to give you a ki nd of a time line when this issue will get resolved. So, once we are clear with this, we will come back with every detail what you have asked for.

Disha

Got it, sir. And one another question. The bromine business, which has been an important growth driver right now. Could you share whether customer approvals or commercialization are progression in line with expectations and whether the revenue contribution we expect over the next 2 to 3 years, how does it stand in your timeline sir.

R.S. Jalan

Yes, both these projects are now commissioned, like I said in my opening remarks. But in terms of the Vacuum Salt, all the trial production has been done. Now hopefully, in this quarter, the production -- commercial production will start. And like I said, in this quarter, maybe in the fourth quarter of this year, I think full utilization of this project should happen. '27, '28 full utilization will be there. In terms of the bromine, again, the project is complete. And as I mentioned in my opening remarks th at in any case, in the second quarter because of the seasonality and the rain, the production is likely to be very less. But this project is also completely ready. And maybe third quarter and fourth quarter, you will see that production happening from this. And both these projects will have the full advantage of full utilization in the next year. And the likely revenue will be roughly around INR160 crores, INR170 crores number. And the margin on that number will be roughly around 40% to 45% margin.

Disha

Got it, sir. Just one more question. What will be the capex plan for FY27?

Moderator

The next question is from the line of Ashish from Leo Capital.

Ashish

Congratulations on a great set of numbers sir. So, I had three questions. I was hoping you could shed some light on. The first was of the 1 million metric tons of soda ash, which is being imported into India today, which countries is it primarily coming from? And what sort of import duties is it subject to?

R.S. Jalan

Yes, in terms of the major imports, which is coming from U.S., Turkey and some portion coming from China. And in terms of the duty, we have a normal duty because there is no kind of antidumping duty or anything of that sort, which is around 7.5% kind of a duty on the import of soda ash.

Ashish

Okay. And if the natural soda ash is being imported into, let's say, from U.S., Turkey, China, what sort of opex and okay, duties, you said it's normal duty, 7.5%, right?

R.S. Jalan

Yes. And whatever the additional duty, but the base duty is around 7.5%.

Ashish

And what sort of opex do they operate at?

R.S. Jalan

See, in terms of natural soda ash, when it comes from the U.S. and if you take a landed cost to India, probably, I would not say that they are making a kind of a big margin on that. And in terms of Turkey also of these prices, they are not making margin. These are more of like a dumping kind of situation for them because of the global demand - supply situation is in favor of the demand because the demand is lower than the supply. But overall, they are not making any money on that. Landed cost will be the same range of around, you can say, $180, $190 kind of a cost of those products to India.

Ashish

Okay. Got it. Got it, sir. And one more question I had was what percentage of the global capacity now that you mentioned is actually loss -making at an EBITDA level at today's price? Or are they mostly operating at breakeven?

R.S. Jalan

See, if you look at in terms of the natural soda ash, like I said, they are not making losses. But my understanding is the Chinese synthetic soda ash producers more particularly in this process, they are -- of course, we don't have a data, Chinese data, you can't have the Chinese data. But as per our understanding, they are making cash losses at this point of time. That's the reason some of the plant has kind of taken a long shutdown to kind of regulate the capacity or the inventory part of it.

R.S. Jalan

Like I said, I don't think we have that number of how much percentage, like I said, but if you look at the overall capacity, we are three kind of capacity globally. One is the Natural soda, which I mentioned to you. The second is the Solvay process, which I mentioned to you that is, and that majors capacities in China only, major, I'm talking about and some -- of course, in Europe also. And the third is the Hou process. So as per our knowledge, all the synthetic soda ash producers Solvay process. And major, as I said, in China, they are making cash losses.

Moderator

The next question is from the line of Renuka Sivsankar from First Water Capital.

First Water Capital

So, I just wanted to understand the margins that we have recorded in this quarter, you mentioned in your opening remarks due to one of the factors is price realization. So maybe on quarter -on- quarter and year-on-year, if you could quantify how much is the pri ce realization increase per unit metric?

R.S. Jalan

So Renuka, if you look at in terms of my opening remarks, I have said that these margins are a combination of price elevation, your cost reductions of efficiency improvements as well as the low-cost inventory of the raw material -- in terms of the going forward, I said, quarter-on-quarter basis, so much of volatility is there. It will be difficult to kind of predict or kind of a track on that. But if you look at the medium term and maybe for the year as a whole, you will find that the normalization of the margin will happen during in this year. So that is what the overall our understanding. And like I said in my opening remarks again, our focus, what is in our control, in our control is the efficiencies, the cost reductions, which we are continuously doing that. And the moment the scenario of change in the supply chain, the things will improve. I just want to highlight one more thing here, Renuka. We definitely see in Indian story, we are seeing a kind of upsurge in the demand scenario because of this new nontraditional, if I use the word of the solar, which is likely to kind of add on in the next -- in the last quarter of this year. New capacities are getting added and that will create a kind of a big demand surge into the soda ash. And all these things will definitely benefit us because we are a low-cost producers, and we are constantly focusing on our efficiencies and the cost-effectiveness.

First Water Capital

Got it. But I just wanted to be able to quantify that the margin increase that we have seen, how much would be from price realization, how much would be from lower cost input. So hence, I'm asking how much of a price hike that we have taken? And if you can tell us which particular raw material where have you seen lower cost?

R.S. Jalan

Yes. But like I said, Renuka, we are more focusing on more on the kind of margin side of it. Like I said, some increase definitely partial increase has come from price realization and some has come from your, what you call, efficiency improvement and the l ow-cost inventory. And going forward, things will become normalized and the things will come on a -- if you look at it on a year-year basis, you will be looking at the normalization of the margin going forward.

First Water Capital

Got it. Got it. And since you mentioned on solar glass demand, currently, how much would it be as a percentage of total domestic soda ash demand? How much would be coming from solar glass? And what is the outlook over there in terms of demand growth?

R.S. Jalan

Yes. If you look at in terms of my understanding at this point of time is roughly 1.5 lakh tonnes of the soda ash gets consumed into the solar glass, which will go to roughly around 3.5 lakh tonnes once all the new capacity which has been planned, which is under implementation. And hopefully, by January, March quarter, these projects will get commissioned. And you will see that the jump in the demand of the solar glass in the last quarter of this year. And hopefully, next year, you will have the full benefit of it.

First Water Capital

Understood. So roughly 8% to 9% of demand is what we are projecting that it would be.

R.S. Jalan

If you look at in terms of -- yes, I would say that, yes, broadly, you are right because overall, the demand, you can take around 45 on that 3.5 lakh tonnes roughly will be 8%.

First Water Capital

And other than that, are there any other end user industries that we are seeing, whether it's lithium-ion or sodium-ion batteries that we could see further demand coming in from?

R.S. Jalan

My understanding in terms of the sodium ion battery, it is far away as per my understand because things are getting still under kind of research and all those things are happening. That will take some time. But yes, once that gets implemented, I think China is taking a lead in that. Once that happens, definitely, there will be kind of a surge in the demand of soda ash in the sodium battery -- and even in the green energy, even in like battery, lithium-ion battery, there also the soda ash demand is there. Because, see, our understanding is in the mobility, the lithium -ion will continue like because sodium-ion batteries are always going to be heavier and that is not likely to be kind of replacing the lithium -ion battery for mobility. For mobility, that lithi um ion will continue. For the stationary energy storage, I think the sodium ion batteries will come in. But that will take at least 1 or 2 years minimum more.

First Water Capital

Understood. Understood. And if I could just ask a last question. Historically, imports have been roughly 20% for demand in India. And you mentioned that imports quarter-on-quarter have gone up again. So if you could quantify in Q4, what was the run rate and currently like in Q1 and Q2, what was the run rate of imports?

R.S. Jalan

Broadly, if you look at in terms of Q1 FY26, okay, as I mentioned to you, approximately, it will be -- it was roughly around 80,000 tonnes kind of a number, which is approximately will be how much percentage? -- around 20% I'm just giving the number, which is roughly around 80,000 to 82,000 tonnes of the number, which went down significantly in -- sorry, Q4 of FY26 to the level of around 45,000 to 46,000 kind of a number. which is again now elevated to 73,000 to 74,000 kind of a number. And these are the monthly average.

First Water Capital

Okay. And as of July as well, it's at an elevated level.

R.S. Jalan

July we don't have right now the number. At this point of time, we don't know the number of July. And these are also estimated numbers based on our assessment of the number.

First Water Capital

Understood. Understood. And since there is no MIC as well, I mean, no trade restrictions and last ADD also, there was some quantity safeguard investigation going on. So is there any update on that front?

R.S. Jalan

Safeguard quantitative restrictions is still under consideration of the government. So we will wait for that outcome of that.

First Water Capital

Okay. So currently, there are no import restrictions, whether in terms of like ADD or quantity - wise.

R.S. Jalan

No. So at this point of time, there is no such restriction. Safeguard quantitative restrictions is under consideration of the government. And once that we get some news or some report on that, we will update for the service.

Moderator

As there are no further questions from the participants, I now hand the conference over to management for closing comments.

R.S. Jalan

Thank you. And as I mentioned in my opening remarks, our major focus is on how do we kind of create a kind of an efficiency -- better efficiency than what we have achieved yesterday. How do we kind of reduce our cost and remain a cost leader so that whenev er this business cycle, which is not in our control, gets improved. we are the most beneficiary of that, number one. Second, in terms of the Indian demand scenario, we are quite positive. Looking at the Indian overall fastest-growing economy, the new uses of the solar glass uses and the regular uses of the glass -- other glasses as well and the detergent. All put together, we are seeing a kind of a good tailwind into the soda ash demand. And obviously, the domestic industry will be benefited out of this. I n terms of our new -- two new projects that are definitely going to add a significant amount of kind of EBITDA into our journey. And that will also give us this kind of a reflection of diversification of the product basket. And we will continue our journey for growing beyond this. And once we have the right opportunity,

we will come back to the shareholders. Thank you very much for all your support, and we will continue to deliver what best we can. Thank you.

Moderator

Thank you, sir. On behalf of Emkay Global Financial Services Limited, that concludes this conference call. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.