The first question is from the line of Mohit Kumar from ICICI Securities.
Quarter ended Dec 2024
Yes. Congratulations on a very strong quarter and the 9 months. My first question is, can you help us with the reason for not including the HVDC orders for Adani in the current quarter? And does the Adani HVDC orders also include transformers for the project? Or is it only for the terminal?
Thanks, Mohit. As per company's processes, there are certain milestones defined. Once we reach that milestone, that order would be booked and yes, the transformers for the HVDC are included as part of the order.
Understood. My second question, how to think about the impact of the FTA with Europe, does it make our product more competitive for the European region, thereby improving our export chances or does it reduce our cost of raw materials , since you, I think, import a significant part from Europe?
Mohit, we are yet to get the details of the FTA. Once we have the FTA details available with us, then only we will be able to make a n assessment on what is the impact both on export side and also on the cost side. It will be too premature for us to comment on FTA.
But sir, how much exported in the last 9 months to Europe? Is that number available?
I don't think that, that will be available, that how much we have exported to the European market. But I don't think that from India, the custom duty is so high that FTA is going to make a meaningful impact in terms of increasing our export numbers in a big way.
Congratulation for a very good set of numbers once again. Sir, my first question is pertaining to HVDC order bid that we had in last quarter. So assuming that we will have commercial finalization by maybe next couple of months, so what could be delivery timeline for this particular project? And how it will span over a period of, say, multiyear in the next few years?
Umesh, order is already with us. Zero date has already started. And it's only that once we reach certain commercial milestones, we are going to book it into the system and declare it to the market.
Execution timeline for the process?
Execution timeline is very near to what has been defined by the TBCB development requirement, it is very near to that, about 4 years.
In terms of HVDC project, so if I look at our current capacity, on the basis of existing capacity, are we in a position to execute this project immediately? Or will we require to add more capacity and then we are thinking about execution?
As a good governance process, we don't take orders when we don't have the capacity and thinking that we're going to add the future capacity and then execute the process. So whatever capacity is required to execute this order is already available with the company.
Understood, sir. And last question on the HVDC project between Barmer a nd South Kalamb. So, you mentioned during last interaction that probably that order of finalization might happen by the end of fiscal year FY '26. So, any colour on updated status of that project?
So, we expect that order to get finalized in Q2 of '26 - '27 for the developers and then whatever time additional it requires for the OEM to take.
Understood.
This is as per today's visibility, but it might change depending upon the extensions and things like that, which is not in our control.
The next question is from the line of Amit Anwani from Prabhudas Lilladher.
First question, sir, on the base order inflow for 9 months which is about 6,100 versus 7,700 and we understand that there was an export order. So just wanted to understand the status of one export order we were expecting from the parent, is it expected in 4Q? And on the base order side, what are the opportunities that are still there in terms of pipeline or areas and what is our kind of estimate or confidence on the base order growth for 4Q and even for next year? So if you could highlight the pipeline there?
Okay. Thanks, Amit. So, on the export order that was in the pipeline, it is still in the pipeline, as there has been some delay from the customer side in terms of the decision and now we expect the order to move to second half of the next financial year. So, it is expected to be decided from September to March of the next financial year. And I request Sandeep to talk on other orders.
Amit, we are not seeing any major slowdown in the market. We have today a number of TBCB opportunities coming up. I don't think that we are seeing any slowdown in the ordering and now with states also going for TBCB, for example, we have seen Maharashtra and Karnataka going and a few more states thinking of going or moving their pipeline towards TBCB, we are pretty confident on achieving the growth in base orders in this year as well as next year.
Right, sir. Sir, next question on the Chinese news which was circulating. Are you seeing any impact to you, any assessment you guys have done, if at all the government reverses or relaxes that order, which was there 4, 5 years back for Chinese players to bid for HVDC or T&D orders? So any colour on that, any impact or any assessment?
It's a media reporting, so the government has not issued any clarification on that. Without any government clarification, if we comment, it will be purely speculation. But we don't think that government is going to dilute its Make in India criteria and for example, we have built a very strong supply chain in the country since we have put up the manufacturing capacities, the teams have worked together in developing a lot of supply chain in the country. I don't see a major impact coming in terms of even if the existing factories, which are based in India, are approved of the Chinese make, i think to reach that maturity level, it's going to take them a lot of time.
Right. Sir, lastly, on the export opportunity, we saw a few companies getting orders for the U.S. data centres on transformers and stuff like that. I wanted to understand I think GE Global also has been focusing there. So , any strong traction you guys are looking, which will be directly related to the data centre space in global markets and also in India. So just more colour on the data centre opportunity and what we are actually eyeing on that space there?
Yes, definitely, we are working with the global teams and India being a strong manufacturing base. Whenever the capacity is required in GEV Global and it is not available, obviously Indian factories would be available depending obviously on the delivery slots. If you look at the data centre or the IT company's announcement of close to about $80 billion of data centre and AI factory by 4 major U.S. companies to be invested in the next 4 to 5 years , this itself is going to present a huge opportunity in terms of data centre and AI for the Indian market as well. We'll be concentrating on those opportunities as well.
Right. Sir, lastly, on the margins. So , for 9 months, we had 27% margin already. So are we revising that upward for the full year? And after this order win of VSC HVDC, what is the margin expectation at firm level for the upcoming years? Will it dilute to a certain level or some understanding with the execution of HVDC coming in for the subsequent years?
Amit, so earlier we talked about this year's expectation of delivering mid-20s kind of EBITDA, so now with the first 3 quarters of good performance, we expect, we will be delivering EBITDA at the higher end of this range. And it's difficult to talk about individual order. Of course, the endeavour of the management is to continue to perform like this and to deliver good EBITDA in the coming years.
Amit, you would have seen that we have been constantly saying that improvement of commercial terms and conditions, better cash conditions, better margins, these have been the focus of the company in the turnaround, what has been achieved. And this is the area we'll be constantly keep on working. We don't expect a major dilution happening on the margin front in the foreseeable time.
The next question is from the line of Puneet Gulati from HSBC.
Great performance here. If you can talk a bit about, how are you really mitigating the negative impact of commodity inflation in your costs, it'll be very helpful?
Puneet, for many of the products, what we supply in the market, the re are variable price. That means if there's an increase or decrease of the raw material cost, the impact is directly passed on to the customer. Second, for orders which are on firm price s, based on our global assessment, we take depending upon the delivery timelines, etcetera, suitable provisions into the costing to take care of any material price movement. Looking into the order book, order backlog situation, etcetera, we keep on working with our supply chain to improve the cost on one side and to mitigate such risk if they emerge at any point of time in the business.
There is no hedging of commodity that you do here?
It's not required because we don't buy commodities per se because, for example, transformer, etcetera, where the commodity percentage is very high, variable prices are there. Other places the components come into small forms only, so don't require price variation and cannot actually hedge into that form.
Okay. And if you can also give some sense of how much of your order book would be in the variable price and how would be firm price?
We don't share these details.
Okay. On just harping on back to Adani. You talked about once you hit milestone; you'll book the orders. What are these milestones that we are looking at?
Okay. And also if you can talk a bit about the scope of the project, what all will be a part? And will right of way be your responsibility? Or will that be their responsibility?
So Puneet, we are not doing the transmission line. We're just building the HVDC stations at both the ends at Khavda and South Olpad. We are not doing the civil work. The civil work is being done by the customers themselves. So obviously, the right of way for the terminal land, etcetera, everything is in customers' court.
The next question is from the line of Parikshit Kandpal from HDFC Securities.
Congratulations on a great quarter, sir. So , first question is, is this power grid order of 3,500 MVA included in this current order book?
Yes.
Okay. Okay. Just on the export this quarter, we have seen a substantial jump, and if I see the 9 - month numbers, the exports have picked up, third-party exports. So any colour on like what has driven this improvement in exports, export order booking of INR420 crores?
For the quarter export orders is around 14% of the order booking. And see, earlier, we had a higher export order share when we booked a large opportunity. So in current quarter, we have the regular orders. And as the domestic as well as the export market are growing in our industry, that's the reason of significant growth in the order in value terms, though percentage -wise, it looks a little less compared to past because the domestic order booking has been very strong due to large PGCIL and HVDC refurbishment order.
No, no, sir. I'm saying for 9 months, we have INR918 crores. And in this quarter, we have booked INR420 crores. So any particular reason why our exports order inflows are higher this quarter?
There is no specific trigger on this. It's just the regular orders that what we are getting, sometimes it is high, sometimes it is normal.
Okay. I mean, the parent has been highlighting strong order wins in Asia, and I think we have been posting on social media and other places that our HVDC current expansion will supply to whole of Asia. So just wanted to get a sense and colour on how is the certification going around Europe and now I think Europe has also signed an FTA, it may come into effect next year. But how are you progressing with the certification across these geographies? And earlier, there was a mandate, I think, in U.K. that there has to be localization. So how do you think now with the FTA in U.K. and Europe, how the export opportunity unfolds for us?
We'll move to the next question, which is from the line of Garvit Goyal from Serene Alpha.
Actually, my question is already answered.
The next question is from the line of Nitin Arora from Axis Mutual Fund
This is Nitin from Axis Mutual Fund.
Sandeep, just first question on your international opportunities. I know you said that the order has been moved in the second half. So , if you can highlight, is it more of a capacity constraint issue that it moved to second half or not, but just a one -liner on that. But given the opportunity on the international side for the last quarter to this quarter, how you are looking at it? I mean, from the inquiry perspective. Also, I know you stated in the starting of the call that even states are looking on the domestic side, But can you elaborate a little bit how the opportunity pipeline , why I'm asking you this because Street is getting very nervous and lot of narratives have been doing the rounds, like, for example, the first narrative which came that China is coming to India. A lot of Chinese companies will certainly start and India will welcome them. That was the first narrative. The second is because solar addition has been lower for the right reasons. I mean you know much better how government is now working on the battery aspect, which also get eventually lit up by solar only eventually. So just if you can articulate on the domestic side, how is the inquiry pipeline, how you're looking at it? Because I remember times when you used to announce an order size of INR400 crores or INR500 crores or INR600 crores used to announce to exchange. But today, we are winning more than INR1,000 crores a single order, we are not announcing. So it looks like the ordering is strong. But if you can articulate a little bit on the domestic and as well as on the international side. That's my first.
Nitin, on your first question that the large order on which we took the RPT approval, that is not a capacity issue, but that is primarily the delay at the customer end. So that is just a clarification, which Sushil talked about that we expected to get deferred to the second half of next year. That is one thing. Secondly, on the domestic market, at least I'm not seeing a slowdown happening. So, When I'm saying that there is a sustainable pipeline of projects even if you go to like PFC website, REC website, you see the number of TBCB opportunities which are there and even states are coming in. China policy needs to be clarified by the government because until the time there is no government clarification, everything is a speculation. But for us to reach whatever position we've reached under Make in India of like 60%, 70% in different products, it has taken a lot of time where we have spent effort, energy to build local supply chain, qualifying vendors because we are talking about these components being used in 400, 765 kV. It is not that just you develop in 2 months and then you are able to use it. It requires a rigorous process of testing and then when it goes under the implementation first on a smaller scale and then it is scaled up on a bigger scale. So, it's not a very small process. Even when if even the Chinese factories get locally qualified, they would still take a lot of time to reach those maturity levels. We are expecting the market to grow. So today, for example, the TB EA, a large part of the factories are blocked by Indian developers only who would be supplying to solar and all those things. Suppose tomorrow if TB EA gets qualified, and it takes order in power grid , then obviously, the renewable capacity, which he was earlier supplying in XY developer, that will be available for third party. Market is not going anywhere.
Got it. Got it. And how you think about international opportunity?
So international opportunities, we are seeing, I think there's a lot of traction which is happening globally. This quarter, the order numbers were better on export side. We are constantly working towards improving the pipeline and also improving the order intake. But globally, the decision- making processes in many geographies are slower than what we see in the Indian market.
Got it. Sir, just one comment of yours where you said that, look, you don't see issues to profitability or margins in the foreseeable future. So, I can assume that the ordering, which was done in the last 9 months, for you or, let's say, for the industry, still no pricing pressure has come and rather given the commodity has increased, there would be adjustment in pricing or rather sustainability? How one should think about that?
Yes. So Nitin, Sandeep talked about the pricing aspect as well as the costing. So in terms of costing, there are a lot of orders where price escalation is passed to the customer and in the cases where we have a firm price contract, we mentioned that we build in the cost assumptions in our working basis our internal forecast, which is a very robust process. And Sandeep also mentioned earlier that the pricing is stable, it's not deteriorating, it's kind of in the same range as we had 3 quarters ago.
Thank you, Sandeep and the team, and thanks for clarifying on the outlook.
The next question is from the line of Mahesh Patil from ICICI Securities.
Sir, my first question is on the export order book. So , is the export order book around 30% of our overall order book?
It will be in the range of 24% to 27%. See, this mix keeps changing depending on what kind of orders we will need for this quarter. So, the overall theme is that the domestic market is strong. The international market is also strong. We continue to see the overall order booking growing. In a few quarters, it would be the larger orders from the domestic and in the other, it could be the export market.
Okay. And sir, my second question is on the HVDC project, right. So , for Khavda Olpad and the upcoming one, South Kalamb, what is typically the local content requirement for the HVDC project?
So, for Khavda Olpad, there was no local requirements, which was defined.
Okay. Okay. And sir, the last question is on the execution with the sales numbers, right? So for 9 months this year compared to 9 months last year, there is sharp increase in the export revenue around 75%. So is this because the large export orders that we received in Q2 FY '25 and Q3 of '24. Is this exhibition belong into that order? And the related question is, is the margin improvement partly because of these export orders?
Yes, you're right, Mahesh. The export order related revenue in the execution also includes the large order that we booked in the last year, and as we mentioned in the earlier calls, the export volume gives us better margin. Those are the better price deals. So that is also one of the reason of the improvement in profitability. Of course, there are other reasons, as I mentioned earlier, which is the overall increase in volume gives us the operating leverage and also significant operational execution that we are having as a team gives execution improvement.
Okay. And this export orders will continue for throughout the next year?
So the large order that we booked last year had a time line of 5 years of execution.
Okay. Okay. And sir, anything on the capex that we had announced earlier this fiscal, any update?
So, we announced the capex of close to INR1,000 crores, all put together. They have respective time lines of implementation, which will go up to financial year '26 -'27 in some cases and '27 - '28 in the other cases.
The next question is from the line of Mahesh Bendre from LIC Mutual Fund.
Sir, Government of India has released, the draft National Electricity Policy 2026, where they have given a lot of, I mean, targets, for example, like per capita electric consumption to go up to 2,000 kilowatt hour by 2030 and 4,000 by 2047. And for the same plant plan, they have envisaged, I think, investments about INR50 lakh crores by 2032. So just wondering, I mean, from your viewpoint, how do this INR50 lakh crores, what kind of investments you anticipate that will go into a transmission side?
Mahesh, we will have to make an assessment. I don't think that we'll be able to give this number out of hand.
Okay. Okay. And sir, given this new target, I mean, earlier there was opportunity you talked about was a INR9 lakh crores in investments in transmission. But because of this broad number, INR50 lakh crores, does this change the opportunity in a larger manner compared to what we anticipated earlier?
Yes, definitely it will change. But then it will also require lot of investment on the generation side as well, because obviously, when you are generating then only you are transmitting. Generation capex has also to match the transmission capex.
Yes. Yes. I'm not looking for any number as such. I just wanted a qualitative input on this. I mean, given such a large-scale investment government is looking to look at for next 15, 20 years, does that? Our plan for dealing with in terms of increasing capacity and adding new products and so on. So, are there any internal discussions about all this opportunity and how we are going to focus?
We are already investing, as Sushil said, we are already investing into a capex of INR1,000 crores. And this is something which we always keep on our radar and there are always internal discussions, which keep on happening as a part of the strategy. And whenever we require , whenever we think that we are ready for another round of capex, we will go ahead with that.
The next question is from the line of Viren Deshpande from Alphapeak Investments.
Congratulations for the excellent growth, which the company has achieved consistently over the last 1 year. And the order book also INR14,000 crores plus, plus the HVDC order of Adani, which will also be quite substantial, I hope, where the company has the order book fully for maybe next 2 years, if you consider a reasonable growth of about 20%, 25% and so, as you mentioned, that Chinese competition also is just a speculation. And even if it comes, it is likely to face the issues like testing and various other things, and it will take a lot of time. So our growth projections and all those things and the order booking continues to be good. So it is good. I would like to wish only the best for the company. I don't have any questions.
Thank you, Viren, but I'm saying that Chinese competition is not speculation. I said that the media news which has come in, is that till the time we don't get a government clarification, this news and everything is a speculation.
Yes, yes. So the government has not mentioned anything on that. This news has been appearing for the last 15 days or 1 month, because there is some shortage in some transformer parts, etcetera. But as you mentioned, these things even if they are clarified, there is only 1 manufacturing company which has to produce it in India. Normally things government is sanctioning for China is that you should produce here in India. So, if that is the case, if people have to put up a plant and all those things , it will again be a matter, which will be after 2, 3 years only. So is this understanding, correct?
Yes.
The next question is from the line of Parikshit Kandpal from HDFC Securities.
Sorry, I got dropped out. My question is on HVDC. Now we have one HVDC already in our kitty. So, do we have capacity to take more, 1 or 2 more HVDC projects? We'll be active in this market?
So we definitely have capacity for more HVDC projects, but it will not be possible for us to disclose on an open call that we have capacity for 1, 2, 3, 4 HVDCs because these are commercially sensitive information, but yes, we have capacity.
Okay. So you're open and are exploring more opportunities in this segment. Secondly...
That is what was part of my opening statement as well that with the HVDC opportunities, we'll look forward towards growth with HVDC, more HVDC.
Okay. The other question is related to , I was talking about U.S. at that time that I got dropped out and the opportunity in Asia. So are there further discussions on the recent projects which the parent has done, I think, in Iraq and in Middle East, so that we get a share of some component of related party for the next year?
So it's something which we keep on working. And I think whenever there is an opportunity and if it is very large in nature, we will obviously go back to the shareholders for related party approval.
Okay. And sir, just lastly on this current HVDC which we won, which is a VSC project. So what kind of localization we have for this and what will be the import content or the parent share of in-sourcing for the parts or the equipment in this?
So these are very specific information, Parikshit, and these are commercially sensitive information. So we don't share it, these information, but I can only tell you that the whole order has been taken by GE Vernova T&D India Limited, and we will deliver the order.
And sir, on the cash equivalent in the 9 months is INR15.9 billion, so is there any reduction in cash equivalent?
There has been improvement, Parikshit. So last quarter, we had, I think, INR15.2 billion. And this quarter, we have INR15.9 billion. And over the last 9 months, we have generated INR6 billion. Starting March, it used to be around INR8 billion to INR9 billion of cash, which has now grown up to INR16 billion.
Okay. INR6.7 billion for the 9 months period.
Yes.
The next question is from the line of Aniket Mittal from SBI Mutual Fund.
Firstly, Sandeep, just a basic question. While I understand there is no direct impact of Right of Way (ROW) because a very large chunk of the issue is really coming on the transmission line front. But, let's say, because of that, is there any indirect impact that comes through as let's say, the cooling substation or the grid level substation supply gets deferred, if there are ROW issues on the transmission line that concludes or irrespective of that, they will have to take up the supply?
Yes, definitely, there is sometimes there is an impact in terms of lifting the material. But today, the developer or the EPC companies, they make alternate provisions. For example, they might take a land somewhere to store the material. We might for a few cases, see a delay of maybe a month or 2 months in terms of material getting dispatched, but nothing major.
Okay. So fairly large chunk is essentially being picked up and stored right now, irrespective of the ROW line. Is that fair?
No, I am not saying that there's a large number of projects where it gets delayed. For a few projects where it gets delayed, yes it gets stored and then subsequently, whenever it is required or whenever the land is available, then automatically, the EPC and th e developer speed up the process of executing that project. So the gap is not so much.
Okay, fair. And the other one was just to understand on the margin front, right, I mean it's now 3 quarters where we've been delivering almost 27% and above. And while you've partly given reasons, could you maybe elaborate on how much of this is really bec ause of product mix and how much of this is because of some of the legacy order or getting out of the system and subsequently getting price hikes? We want to understand, just for us to think about how sustainable margins can be.
So Aniket, it depends on what is the starting point and the numbers change depending on which period you're comparing to. This margin improvement is or the better EBITDA in the range of 27% is a result of multiple factors, increase in volume by 46% this financial year and 35% in the last financial year. That is one of the primary reasons, better improvement in pricing and execution of the high-margin contracts booked in the last couple of years is another factor. And the third one is the execution improvement because the team has been working very strongly to make a significant execution delivery. Difficult to give the breakup of this improvement. It's the result of overall coordinated effort of the company, and we continue to hope to work in this direction.
Fair. If I can just ask 1 more question. The current order book that you have, how much of that will be products and how much would be projects?
So as of now, the projects will be lower, less than 30%, but as we are going to also book HVDC order, this mix is going to change significantly because HVDC is classified as a turnkey project. And again, I would say that it's difficult for anyone to keep e valuating the company basis the further mitigation. For us, we, as a management team, evaluate our company as at the larger level as 1 company without going into these breakups like export and domestic or one particular business versus other. We have a very disciplined commercial underwriting process, wherever we get the opportunity to fill in the volume and book orders at a better deal, whether it be domestic market or export market or turnkey project or a specific product, basis our commercial underwriting process, we'll book those deals. And as a result, the overall order booking is at a healthy level, and we are delivering with good results at 25% to 27% EBITDA.
The next question is from the line of Subhadip Mitra from Nuvama. Subhadip Mitra: Sorry, I got cut off in between. So some of my questions might be a repeat. So taking off from where Aniket left on the margin point, just trying to get a little bit more colour on this. I think in the previous con calls, you had alluded to the fact that despite the operating leverage plays and all the other benefits that are there, maintaining a margin of 25% plus would be difficult. However, what we are hearing now is you are saying that maintaining a 25%, 27% or somewhere in that range of margins is something that is sustainable. Is that the right understanding?
I'll start and then I'll request Sandeep to answer. So Subhadip, there are 2 parts of this question. First, one of the question was that what is the expected margin for this year? And I answered that we have been talking about mid -20s. And now with the fir st 3 quarters results have been very good. So we expect now to be the higher end of the mid-20s for the full financial year, for this financial year. And the other related question was the expectation for the future. And for that, I and Sandeep, we answered that our endeavour is to maintain this mid -20s kind of margin. And Sandeep answered in the other way around saying that, he doesn't see a deterioration in the foreseeable future, a significant deterioration in the foreseeable issue. Sandeep, you would like to add anything?
No, I think you're right, Sushil. You have captured it well. Subhadip, as we said clearly that, at that point of time as well, we didn't mean it that it will be a significant deterioration we expect, but it was read or it was understood like that. Subhadip Mitra: Perfect. Perfect. I think that makes it amply clear. Secondly, I think if I have to look at the overall ordering in the transmission space, right? Now, I think the current fiscal has been relatively slow. I believe last fiscal ordering was in excess of INR1 lakh crores. We are significantly lower in this year so far. So do you anticipate a large pickup in the forthcoming quarters because there is a lot of tendering activities. Is it possible to kind of articulate what is the size of overall pipeline of, let's say, TBCB projects that are in the tendering pipeline that you are seeing?
I think I don't have the ready numbers with me about the pipeline, but I expect that, yes, next year is going to be a much stronger year than what we had this year.
Ladies and gentlemen, this was the last question for today. I now hand the conference over to Ms. Megha Gupta for closing comments.
Thank you all for joining the call today. We hope the insights provided by our speakers have been informative and valuable to you. We value the trust and support of our investors and analysts and ensure to remain committed to maintain transparent communica tion and fostering strong relationships. If you have any further questions or require additional information, please do not hesitate to reach out to me or our communications leader. Thank you.
Thank you. On behalf of the GE Vernova T&D India Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us. And you may now disconnect your lines.