Hyundai Motor India Limited analyst Q&A

Thank you very much. We will now begin the questio n-and-answer session. The first question is from the line of Mitul Shah from DAM Capital.

Sir, my first question is on growth outlook for pa ssenger vehicle industry for Q4 and FY'26. As there has been lot of uncertainty recently in terms of huge difference in growth among the players, if you can give more detail on the Q4 particularly and what could be the FY’26 domestic PV industry growth. And at the same time also, we w ould be happy to understand your market share strategy as our shares have declined marginally in first nine months. So, what strategy will you use to regain it?

So, if you see nine months, the TIV has grown by 2 .2%. So, we have been maintaining this that after those high growths of 23% and 9% which we all saw post COVID, obviously some kind of a moderation was expected, and this is absolutely in line with this anticipation. Going forward, there are some positive factors as w ell. If you see two-three positive factors. One, yesterday RBI infused liquidity. Very clearly this is a precursor to lowering of interest rate because now it is two-three years since the interes t rates have been very high. I think lowering of interest rate not only from an automobile point of view but from an overall growth point of view are very-very important. We believe that infla tion also has probably peaked out. The monsoons were all over the country, were normal to excess. And we are seeing a positive offshoot on rural. So, there are these three-four f actors. One very important factor also is that, after two-three years of very high growth, every company probably was taken by surprise when this kind of a bump happened. So, suddenly people w ent into a huge negative spiral. You saw huge price cuts by some OEMs, you saw some huge dis counts. But now I think sanity is prevailing. By 1st of January, Hyundai took the lea d by increasing the price by almost close to 1%. And we can see that many other players have fol lowed. Some of the players have already announced that they were going to do on 1st of February. So, I think in terms of sentiment some kind of a positive thing is happening. That said, although the exact forecast probably SIAM has announced that 18th of February, we will have a looking ahead conclave and there we wil l be announcing industry forecast. But it appears broadly when we talk to other players that probably low single digit in '25, considering all the positive as well as challenging factors, appear to be in order. As far as Hyundai is concerned, some of the levers we are looking at, of course, is electric. As you know that today we have almost 0% market share in electric because Ioniq 5 is in the niche segment. But it has given us a very strong image in the market. And now that Creta EV has come out with a very stro ng force, we believe that even if the industry, say from 2.5% reaches say about 3.5% to 4 % in '25 or early '26, even if we can target a 10% market share, it will give us 0.3% to 0.4% positive market share in the overall scheme of things, which can take care of some of the, like yo u mentioned, other competitors who have launched new models in '24. So, that effect can be negated. So, we believe we will be in line with the industry growth going forward in '25. And then with the Pune plant coming in and our new model cycle married to the Pune plant, like MD mentioned in his opening speech, we are not only looking at launch of ICE models, we are also looking at alternate powertrain opportunity. Of course, we mentioned three more EVs after Creta EV in our prospectus as well. So, I think we can be positive about that going forward. I'll pass it on to Hari to take the answer forward.

Hi, Mitul. Hariharan this side. Just to add furthe r to what our COO, Mr. Tarun mentioned, see on the market share as such, we have our clear strategies which has been very positively working for us. For example, one is the premiumization. HMI is always known for the strong premiumization strategy. So, one is on the SUV fron t, as you can see from the numbers itself, our SUV penetration has been consistently growing. And second thing is the focus on some of the mid to high end trims. Today, if you see, last year when we launched this dual cylinder technology in two of our models, that has strongly pushed our CNG penetration both in case of Nios and Exter, that is one. And even there are other aspects as well, for example Sunroof, if I can give you some numbers, it was 47% in terms of penetration in Q3 financial year '24. It has gone to 53.5% duri ng the current year same quarter. Similarly, ADAS from 3.4% has gone to 12.9%. Even automatics have also increased by a decent number. So, clearly these strategies are helping us in this tough market environment. And in fact, it has helped us to improve our domestic ASP by more than 2.5% during this period. So, as our COO, Mr. Tarun mentioned, going forward, this additional capacity we'll be getting from Pune plant, I think that is something a great opportunity for us. Of course, with the model launches we have planned going forward, that is something we are very positive about. So, with our quality of growth strategy, we will continue to explore various opportunities available in the market. And accordingly, we can secure the growth b oth in terms of volumes as well as the profitability.

Yes sir. Just on this new Talegaon plant, as you m entioned, after it becomes operational, what would be export strategy? As domestic growth would be single digits, to make or to reach certain optimum utilization to make it profitable, our expo rt needs to be much higher. So, what would be our strategy there?

This is Unsoo. In terms of export, HMIL is the lar gest exporter since 1998 cumulative. Also, we have a healthy and balanced mix of domestic and exp ort volume which give us not only good profits but also natural hedge against the market f luctuation and foreign exchanges. As we see the domestic market is increasing and also, we see the export market increase. So, with the expansion of our Pune plant, we will meet both the demand. During the quarter, the geopolitical issues continued to impact the export volumes. The risk was mitigated to some extent by increasing volume to ot her region, like Africa. But we have a very unique product portfolio and model mix in the emerg ing market. We launched a new range of SUV like the Exter and Alcazar facelift last year. And also, HMIL has access to export ecosystem of HMC in more than 80 countries. Also, we are the manufacturing hub for emerging markets. So, going forward, we expect sustainability in the export volume in the near term with demand improvement in the mid to long-term.

We have the next question from the line of Kapil S ingh from Nomura.

I just wanted to ask on the cost items, how are co st items looking for the future in terms of commodity costs, and as well as the fact that we ar e starting a new plant next year. So how should we think about the impact of that on margin? Also, these staff costs for the quarter were up sig nificantly. So, if you could give some color there and you know, whether this is a sustainable level or how to think about that?

Hi, Kapil. So, your first question on the commodit y. See, commodity was more or less stable during this quarter. And second thing on the staff cost which you asked, there was a one-time impact which we have disclosed in the IPO prospectu s time itself. This is basically kind of reward which has been announced for all the employees. So, that is reflected in this Q3 period. And as far as Pune is concerned. We will be starti ng this Pune facility by end of this calendar year. Of course, all the activities are progressing in a fast pace. As far as margins are concerned, as you know this is a significant capacity we'll be getting. 170,000 is the plan we are having and of course, with all the model launches we have plan ned going forward, we are very confident that, whatever is the investment we are making into the Pune plant, with our clear strategy, which we are having on the product side, we can secure the margins going forward.

Okay. Sure, sir. And just to clarify this one-time staff cost is only in 3Q, or it will come in future quarters or years also?

No, this was only in Q3. That's all. This is one-off expenses.

Okay, understood. And sir, just on the export side, if you could give some more color, you mentioned that there has been impact of Red Sea cri sis. But when we look at some of your competitors, exports have not been impacted that much. So, any comparison you can share like what is the reason that our exports are impacted an d if there is any sign of improvement in outlook or any easing of the problems that we are facing?

So, Kapil, like we mentioned, look, it also depends on, of course one, which are the markets you are exporting. As you know that Middle East was aff ected much more. At the same time, like we mentioned earlier, that new model cycle is going to come. For example, Exter left hand drive could be a big opportunity for us going forward. So, I think, we just have to be a little bit patient. And you can see, in fact, the cycle turning already, probably from Q4 of this financial. And then going forward, we believe that the effect which we suffered probably is now being mitigated to a large extent. And going forward, of course new models will throw up more opportunities. We are looking at EVs export as well. And of course, Hari, will take it forward from here. Yes, Hari?

Yes, Kapil. So, again on the export side I think, y ou know that right from the time we started our operations in India, we've been strongly focusi ng on the export front. So of course, the current decline, whatever we are seeing, it is more to do with the geopolitical issues like the Red Sea and the issues which we are seeing in Latin Ame rica. But on the demand side, it is very much stable. We don't see any problem on that front. And on the operational side as well, we are kind of adjusting our planning and operations. So, we see more of stability coming from the export side going forward. And as our COO mentioned as well, we have launched even during last year some of the products in the overseas market like Creta, we have launched Alcazar, we have launched even Exter in South Africa. We have b een getting very, very positive response from the overseas market. So, going forward also we will look for lot of opp ortunities, because today we are the production hub for emerging markets like Latin America, Middle East, Africa. But we will look for opportunities in other emerging markets as well, ev en on the EV side, we are evaluating on the export possibilities, even to start with Creta Electric. So, I think going forward there are a lot of opportunities we see with the Pune plant coming in, that is something real positive thing for us. We will be in a position to leverage the various opportunities lying ahead of us.

Thank you and best wishes.

Thank you. We have the next question from the line of Amyn Pirani from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Yes, hi and thanks for the opportunity. Just continuing on the export aspect. I think in the initial remarks there was one comment that to offset the Middle East and Latin America weakness, we have increased exports into Africa and maybe that has led to some increased discounts and ASP issues. So, broadly can you just help clarify whether Africa is generally a lower ASP and lower margin geography and that has, maybe, impacted our overall profitability?

Yes, Amyn, Hariharan here. See, as we mentioned, the increased level of discount is something which we have to do because Africa is a region wher e we had actually increased our volumes more than the original plan. And of course, when we have to push for some extra volumes, we need to give some additional price support. That is one. And second is that even from the product perspecti ve, for example, when we export some product, we need to make some adjustments also to meet their requirement. So that is something as an additional factor which we need to take care because for example, when we export Exter as a model, we need to make some adjustments to meet their requirements. Obviously, we need to support with some additional price incentives. But that said again, as I mentioned, on the demand side overall for export, it is very much intact. Going forward, we expect stability. We are looking for various opportunities on the export side to increase the volumes. Especially with the Pune capacity, as we mentioned, I think we are very positive about it going forward on the export side as well.

And just on the Creta Electric as an export opportu nity. Again, just want to understand, is the Creta Electric exclusively made in India or is it made in other geographies also?

This is Unsoo. Creta Electric is unique for our Che nnai plant. We are basically targeting for domestic, but we are exporting to neighbouring coun try first. And then, if possible, with some emerging market infrastructure or government policy if favourable to us, we will export Creta Electric too.

Okay. That's good to know. And just lastly if I can squeeze in one more question. On the domestic side in terms of model launches, I know you cannot go into specifics, but we've already seen the Creta Electric in calendar’25. Is there a broad number of launches that is ICE plus EV that we can expect for the remainder of the year? If you can give some broad indication?

I think we need to be patient. We will, at the righ t time maybe, give this information. So, my request is that please be patient. We will be announcing. MD already mentioned along with the Pune plant, you will see a lot of launches. But how many in calendar '25? How many in '26? Please wait for the right time. I think we will be announcing.

Sure. Thank you so much. I'll come back in the queue.

Thank you. We have the next question from the line of Jinesh Gandhi from Ambit Capital. Please go ahead.

What was the impact in staff cost in this quarter and how much were discounts in this quarter?

See, on a year-on-year basis, the staff cost has i ncreased by about 0.6% on the revenue. That is one. And as far as discount is concerned, there was some discount, as we have mentioned, because of the volumes we need to increase to Africa region. So, there was some increased level of discounts on the export side and domestic side a lso there has been some increase in the discounts on a sequential basis. That is most to do in line with the industry scenario. But still our discounting was very much below the industry average as far as domestic is concerned.

Yes. I mean 2Q was 1.9% of sales was discount. 3Q would be 2.5~3%, any indication?

So, as a percentage on ASP for domestic, the discount was 2.6%.

2.6%. Got it. And royalty would be stable Q-o-Q at 2.6%, or that had also gone up?

Royalty was almost similar to the Q2 level. During this Q3, it was 2.7% on the revenue.

Got it. And lastly, any comment on Creta EV, given that it's almost 10 days since we launched, how is the response of any booking numbers which you can talk about?

Yes. So, Creta EV response is good. It's too early to talk about but what we feel is that broadly what we had announced in the Bharat Mobility was th at we believe that 10% of the Creta volumes could come from Creta EV. Going forward, I think we should be in line with that broad number going forward and that will help us as a lever for our market share as well as for volume.

Got it. Great. Thanks, and all the best.

Thank you. The next question is from the line of G unjan from Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Yes, hi, thanks for taking my questions. I just ha d a quick follow up on prior questions. Just, firstly on Exports. Could you give us some sense on what is the geo-mix in this year fiscal 25, particularly I'm interested to know how big is Middle East for us and again Africa, where has it gotten to? And on the exports again like you mentioned for domestic expecting a low single digit growth for industry, market share should be stable. If I were to think of exports, do you think in fiscal '26 the growth can be better than this low s ingle digit that we're seeing in domestic or it's going to be pretty much in the same zone?

Hi, Gunjan. See, as far as the geo mix is concerned during this quarter, yes, Middle East was impacted. So, there was a drop of about nearly 10% for Middle East volumes. On the other hand, because, as we mentioned, Africa we are focused. We have seen a growth of nearly 15% in Africa as far as volumes are concerned.

He's talking about contribution. He's not talking about volume.

Yes. That is on the overall contribution.

Yes. How big is Middle East? Is it 15%, 20% of your overall export volumes?

The Middle East would be around roughly 37% during Q3 of this year and Africa would be close to 28%.

Okay. Got it. And anything on the outlook for exports for next fiscal? I mean I get that it can be a very big growth driver from a mid-term perspectiv e but more trying to get sense on next 12, 18 months?

Look very difficult to give an outlook but I can on ly say that things look positive. And Pune plant with the end of this year coming in, like I m entioned, along with domestic we have those opportunities in export. For example, you mentioned 12 to 18 months. Definitely, before 18 months, Exter left hand drive will be up and runnin g. That should be a big driver. We are expecting stability in other markets as well. So, v ery difficult to give whether it will be 10% or 8%. I can only say probably it appears that the wor st is behind us, and we should be able to get into a growth cycle in exports. So, we will definit ely, I mean definitely we cannot say, but we will have a growth in calendar year '25 over calendar year '24, at least in the business plan. That is what we are aiming at.

Okay, no, that's good to hear and quite helpful. My second question again a little bit of bookkeeping is on the Tamil Nadu Government State incentive that we get. If you can just share what is the magnitude and how does it get accounted, if you can give some color on that?

So, yes, Tamil Nadu incentive for us, normally ever y financial year, more or less it starts from the Q3 onwards. So, roughly we can say, on a monthl y basis it would be roughly around ₹30 crores kind of a range. So even this quarter we had , all the full 3 months impact. It has been reflected in our Q3 P&L as well.

So, this will be part of operating income roughly around ₹90 crores in Q3?

Yes, this is part of the other operating revenue. That is how we are showing in the P&L.

And similar should be magnitude next quarter?

See more or less, it follows a trend basically. Obv iously, there can be some impact because of the product mix and other things. But more or less it follows a similar trend and Q3, as to be precise, the amount was ₹101 crores. That was the impact reflected in the P&L.

Okay, got it. Thank you so much. I'll join back the queue.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen. We will take that as a last question for today. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mitul Shah for closing remarks. Over to you, sir.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question for today. With this we conclude today's conference call. On behalf of Hyundai Motor India Limited, we thank you for joining us and you may now disconnect your lines.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we now conclude this conference. Thank you once again for joining the Hyundai Motor India Limited Conference Call. You may disconnect your lines.

Edited for brevity and inadvertent errors.