Jindal Saw Limited

Quarter ended Mar 2025

2025-05-05 Transcript PDF
Moderator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. The first question is from the line of Poojan Shah from Molecule Ventures. Please proceed.

Pujan Shah

Hello. Sir, the first question would be on the JJM side. So we know that there is a slowdown in JJM Mission from last 8-9 months. So, how is the current demand and what is the order book now we have been getting out in terms of traction and all that stuff ? Did the state or the center has been releasing the funds ? And continuing with the same question , we have also listened about the JJM fund has been slashed by 50% by the Government. So then how the economics will work? Do the project which has been liable to complete, so can you just give a broad thought on it?

Neeraj Kumar

Okay, Jal Jeevan Mission, w hat appeared as a budgetary delay of funds has all been restored. This year, the Government has released Rs. 70,000 crores. So , that puts the JJM projects on track. The full impact of that would come in Q2 onwards. And you said 50% slash. I don't think that is the case. The state Governments as well as JJM put together are going full throttle on water infra projects. Now even the states with the help of multilateral agencies, some from their own sources are going ahead . So the demand for the water infrastructure is very good giving rise to a lot of demand for pipe. In fact, now many of the states have come up with a new business model, which they call HAM, which is a hybrid annuity model where the EPC contractors are expected to participate in a big way wherein they become a partner with the Government even in putting equity and then they implement the whole project, do the O&M for a period of time and then hand over. So, that's the term that they use is HAM, which is Hybrid Annuity Model. And it's a mix of PPP build, operate, transport, build, operate transfer and also on as you progress in the project. So, there is a talk about…

Pujan Shah

Sir, just a follow-up question on the...

Neeraj Kumar

Sorry.

Pujan Shah

Yes, just a follow -up question. Your voice was not clear on the , so when you will see the full impact of JJM? In April? May?

Pujan Shah

Right. Got it, sir. And in terms of funds, there is no challenge as of now. But do you feel after 2028 when the Jal Jeevan Mission will get completed, there will be a need of that mission or any other mission which will have that facility for the aggregate supply of water? Or it will restore through like any other mission like that?

Neeraj Kumar

See, if you look at today, the water grid system in every state, there is still a lot of headroom to go because there is a lot of flooding still. If you look at the aggregate amount of rainfall in a country for the full year, aggregate all over geography, and if you add up all your consumption of water again full year aggregate, all they get balanced. But still there are places where there is no water , and there are places where there is flooding. There are places where all the excess good water flows into the sea. So, this water management grid, there is a lot of scope to do this management wherein the sources, the storage, the distribution and the timeline is such that all this mismatches on a timely basis , seasonal basis can be met and therefore there is a lot of scope which still can be seen river diversion. A few announcements that Government has recently made may also give rise to a lot of opportunities. So, there is a lot of options or a lot of opportunities going to come in water in fra projects for at least next five to seven years.

Pujan Shah

Got it. And then my last question would be on the DI side. So, we know that the many companies are expanding their capacity and even we have getting some better option, little products like OPVC. So, do you think that will be a challenging part in terms of DI pricing and realizations coming?

Neeraj Kumar

No. See, the demand, the growth in demand will take care of all the capacity. Number two, even if there is this incremental capacity, we would always at the core because we have a cost advantage, we have a locational advantage , and we have an advantage of being an established player in the market. So, any newcomer will have a higher burden of interest depreciation, their cost of production, manpower, everything for them would be a challenge , and we would be sitting in our leadership position . So, therefore, those additional capacity et cetera does not bother us much.

Pujan Shah

In terms of optionality products like OPVC, do you see the replacement of DI would be, like, there would be any replacement for it or it won't exist because of the quality of product?

Neeraj Kumar

DI has not been replaced anywhere in the world. If you look at Europe , in fact, what we expect as the country develops and the people, the Government and everybody becomes more cautious towards portable water , we expect that DI should be used even in the smaller diameter where HDPE et cetera is being used because from a health perspective, from a quality perspective, from a product life cycle, if you take the full life cycle, a DI pipe can last up to 40-50 years. No HDPE pipe lasts for that long. So, if you see during a full life cycle, the redigging and the relaying, then those options become much more expensive option. In some cases, they have become an impossible option because if you have an urbanization then, you know, keep on digging all over the city becomes that much of a problem. So, as these realizations come into Government and the users, we expect DI to not only stay, but to also replace others even in the smaller diameter.

Pujan Shah

Right. Got it, sir. thanks for the opportunity. I will join back in the queue.

Moderator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, in order to ensure that the management is able to address questions from all participants in the conference, please limit your questions to two per participant. The next question is from the line of Vedant Sarda from Nirmal Bang Securities Private Limited. Please proceed.

Nirmal Bang Securities Private Limited

Hello. S ir, my query is regarding the cash losses we have faced in our subsidiaries . Like in current year, it is around Rs. 357 crore, and last year it was Rs. 157 crore, JITF part.

Neeraj Kumar

Can you come again?

Nirmal Bang Securities Private Limited

Sir, in JITF, Rs. 345 crores of cash losses in the current year and Rs. 157 crore cash loss in previous year.

Neeraj Kumar

Rs. 157 crore of cash loss, 57.

Nirmal Bang Securities Private Limited

In previous year. And 345 in the current year.

Neeraj Kumar

So, 146 is considered as a cash loss. See, I don't have those figures in front of me. So, why don't I suggest that please write to us. RAJEEV Goyal, today he is not joining us on this call. He is not in the office. He would answer that very specific accounting entry because broadly I have given you everything in terms of the adjustments, but if you really want to know that specific thing or have you found one?

Nirmal Bang Securities Private Limited

It isn't reported in the CARO report.

Neeraj Kumar

Just hold. Mantri is trying to answer that. Narendra Mantri is our CFO. So, he just got that.

Narendra Mantri

Current year numbers which you are seeing is inclusive of this Rs. 146 crore, which we have explained earlier. So, if you exclude that number, then both the numbers are at the same range.

Nirmal Bang Securities Private Limited

That Rs. 345 crore is impact of deferred tax.

Nirmal Bang Securities Private Limited

Okay. Thank you, sir.

Moderator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, in order to ensure that the management is able to address questions from all participants in the conference, please limit your questions to two per participant. The next question is from the line of Deepak Lalwani from Unifi Capital . Please proceed.

Unifi Capital

Yes, sir. Thank you for the opportunity. Sir, on the order inflow, your comment that you expect JJM to come back in Q2, have you seen any green shoots in terms of the bidding for the projects or any tenders for the water projects that have already started? Have you seen that in April month?

Neeraj Kumar

Yes.

Unifi Capital

And on the inflow side, should, yes, sir. That was my question.

Neeraj Kumar

Answer is yes. That's why I am telling you our confidence of it picking up in Q2 comes from that yes, things have begun to happen in terms of tenders, in terms of discussions and all of those we have seen in many states.

Unifi Capital

Okay. A relative question to that . Sir, in this environment of weak demand, has there been any correction in terms of the DI pricing?

Neeraj Kumar

No. When there is a weak demand, see, that's why we slowed down our order and what we are executing is order which has already been taken. You must understand DI , once you bid , that price more or less holds true for the next six to seven months. So , these kind of temporary connections do not impact the DI prices or margins in the long run. There are few because today what we would be bidding , we would be running with those prices for the next 6 to 8 months, but it will not impact my Q1 if ther e is a certain drop in the raw material price or there is a slowdown or anything.

Neeraj Kumar

But as far as we are concerned, we are confident of maintaining our EBITDA margin around between 19% and 20% that EBITDA margin would be maintained on a on a full all product basis.

Unifi Capital

Got it. Sir, in the order book that we mentioned that we have 13 lakh tons of order book in terms of pipe. How much would be the DI pipes again?

Neeraj Kumar

Hold, probably you got that wrong. I said we have an order book of $1.3 billion, not lakh ton.

Neeraj Kumar

Yes, that 13 lakh is there. But I did not mention it in my speak. So, you are referring to the PPT, then it's fine. I just wanted to make sure that you are speaking of number from PPT, yes.

Neeraj Kumar

That’s about nine months. Sorry.

Unifi Capital

How much would be DI pipes out of the 13 lakh?

Neeraj Kumar

DI pipe would be around 6.25 lakhs.

Unifi Capital

6.25. Okay, got it. And this number sequentially, how is it moved, sir? That 6.25 lakh.

Neeraj Kumar

This number?

Unifi Capital

How is it sequentially moved between Q3 and Q4, sir?

Neeraj Kumar

As I told you, the order book has come down. So, it has come down from 6.8 to 6.3.

Unifi Capital

Understood. Got it. Sir, last question from my side. The debottlenecking CAPEX that we are taking in DI and the seamless, some minor capacity addition that we are doing in Nashik, how much should these two initiatives add to our volumes in FY '26?

Neeraj Kumar

Nashik capacity would go to 4.5 lakh tons, and we would add about 1 lakh ton in Haresamudram. The total capacity in Nashik, 4.5, and Haresamudram, old capacity plus 1 lakh ton.

Unifi Capital

Got it. Sir, I was trying to gauge the utilization that you can achieve.

Moderator

Mr. Deepak. Hello, sorry to interrupt.

Unifi Capital

Yes. I just wanted to complete this question. Okay.

Moderator

All right.

Moderator

Hello. Sir, I would request you to return to the question queue for follow up questions. Hello. The next question is from the line of Radha from B&K Securities. Please proceed.

Radha

Hello, sir. Thank you for the opportunity. And I wanted to thank you specifically for the detailed opening remarks, especially on JITF. My first question was you mentioned in your opening remarks that current capacity are already running at full utilization. So, from a base of FY '25 on the pipe front, how much volume growth are you expecting in the next two to three years? Basically my question was regarding , I wanted to understand what is the road map to achieve Rs. 5,000 crores of EBITDA from a current base of Rs. 3,400 crores of EBITDA.

Neeraj Kumar

You have put a lot, lot many questions including A speculative question which is the EBITDA going to 5,000 from 3,000. Where did you get this 5,000 number from?

Radha

No, sir, for that only I wanted the road map. So , currently we are doing Rs. 3,400 crores of EBITDA.

Neeraj Kumar

But the road map is…

Radha

So, I wanted to get the visibility to...

Neeraj Kumar

Madam, hold.

Radha

Yes, sir.

Neeraj Kumar

Five is not a number that company has ever put out in the public domain . The way you asked your question, it look like somebody, somewhere from the company side has put the five in public domain. So , that is not so . Simple question, 5 or 4 or 3 or 6 , at this point of time, the company is in the range of 3,300. 3,400. As you said, the road map for next two to three years is Seamless going from the present to 4.5 lakh, DI adding 1 lakh ton. On large Dia, we expect that maybe there is a headroom because as you know in large Dia pipes because of the changeover, the thickness etc., there is a headroom. We can expect 10 % to 15% growth. So, these are the three that we are going to get in terms of volume growth over the next two to three years. We will be getting cost reduction on account of coke oven, on account of PCI, and on account of other. Then we would get an incremental margin on account of things like threading, premium connection, OCTG , value added products, stainless steel and all of those. So, next two to three years, you will see the growth and improvement from three buckets. A, moving towards value add, more coating, more stainless, higher grades, some volume because of these capacity and improvement in EBITDA because of the reduction in the cost because of the initiatives that have already been taken. That's what the impact is going to be over the next three years. And that is for you to make your assessment of where that current 3 ,300 or 3,400 EBITDA reaches.

Radha

Yes, sir. Just wanted to clarify . This 5,000 crores was my estimate and was not stated by the company. And to achieve this number, I basically wanted to understand whether over the next three years achieving 13% to 15% volume growth is possible considering the capacities that we have.

Neeraj Kumar

Yes, as I have given you all the guidelines and now I would leave it to your judgment. And still if you need some more input, I would encourage you please write to the company. We will get back to you and we can have a longer discussion so that it gives you whatever more inputs that you need.

Radha

The second question, sir, is regarding...

Moderator

Sorry to interrupt , Ms. Radha. Hello, sorry to interrupt. I would request you to return to the question queue.

Radha

Yes, ma’am. The response , the second response was actually to clarify that it was not the guidance from the management. It was not a question. So, is it okay if I go on with the second question?

Moderator

I would request you return to the queue.

Radha

Okay. Thank you.

Moderator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Surbhi Saraogi from Nexome Capital. Please proceed.

Nexome Capital

Thank you for the opportunity. Sir, my question is regarding the fall in selling prices of DI pipes. When do you expect the prices to be correct?

Neeraj Kumar

Again, Madam, you have also asked another speculative question. Where have we ever said that our DI prices are falling?

Neeraj Kumar

Our DI prices stay stable , and we don't expect any fall in our DI price , and therefore the correction of whatever that you are talking about is not relevant to as far as Jindal Saw is concerned.

Nexome Capital

No, sir. I was talking about the market prices, not regarding our order book.

Neeraj Kumar

Madam, market price, what constitutes market price? The order book constitutes a market price. Jindal Saw is not reducing any of its DI price. Full stop. We don't expect the price to be reduced in the near future. We are getting orders at the prices. We are maintaining our NSR . We are maintaining our margins.

Vikash Singh

Thank you, operator. I would like to thank Jindal Saw management for giving us the opportunity to host the ConCall. Now, I will hand over to Mr. Neeraj Kumar for his closing remark. Over to you, sir.

Neeraj Kumar

Thank you all the investors . Probably I expect, I thought that there were a few more questions that you may wanted to ask. But as I said, I encourage all of you that please write to us. We would encourage a one-to-one discussion or maybe even a group discussion so that all your questions get answered. Some of the detailed accounting ones where I don't have the detail , we will answer you. And thank you all very much. With that comment, enjoy. See you next quarter. We continue to do well, and we will continue to put in our efforts. Thank you. Bye.

Moderator

On behalf of PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us and you may now disconnect your lines.