Thank you very much. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. The first question comes from the line of Shweta Dixit from Systematics.
Quarter ended Dec 2024
My first question would be, as you talk about the expansion plans particularly one in the MENA region. Could you highlight which segment would that be focused on, whether we're looking at the oil and gas end user market or the water transportation segment? That's my first question and second was….
At this point of time in the MENA region what we have on the drawing b oard which is being examined very carefully is how to address both, the oil and gas as well as water sector.
All right, so can we expect a clearer picture on this next quarter or any more details that you could provide on this?
Hopefully, see if not the next quarter per se because unless we have, at this point of time it is on the drawing board, various proposals are being examined. It requires a lot of groundwork in terms of the new geographical region, the regulatory framework and all that. So, one thing is for sure that over the next 6 months you would definitely see some announcements. So, how much of that we can make in the next quarter, we will have to see. So, what I assure you is if not the last quarter of this year, the first quarter of next year would definitely have some of these projects that are on the drawing board both on the domestic as well as international front would reach a stage where we can give you the broad contours which will address oil and gas and water sector comprehensively. Also, we are working on how to improve the value add within the group. So, there are some CAPEX which is being land, keeping that in mind so that the value add within the group also improves, which adds to the stability of the financial robust status of the company.
Any thoughts on taking up any project on the backward integration side?
As I mentioned to you , the moment you talk about value addition within the organization , by simple logic it means it would be an integration either backward or forward. Allow me the time to get this settled and then I'll come up with all the details. But yes, integration is also something that we are looking at very closely.
Last question. It's just basic clarity. I missed that point when you were talking about FOREX market fluctuations and how your exports contribute around 28%. And could you just explain that to me again because I got dropped out of the call ? You were explaining about the natural hedge that exists.
28% of exports means roughly if you look at 4 ,500 as a top line then around 1 ,200 to 1,500 crores is what we earn in our foreign exchange which is largely dollar denominated or in currencies which are pegged to dollar. So, this is available to us where if the rupee depreciates, we tend to benefit. If we look at , now our raw material spent in the quarter which is the large trade foreign currency outflow is less than this 1,500 what we earn. So, we have a natural hedge available that our earning in foreign exchange is more than per quarter what we spend on buying raw materials. Since we do not have any foreign currency term loan on our books which is by design, we don't have any long-term foreign currency commitments. This helps us manage the FOREX fluctuation in a reasonable manner or in an efficient manner because largely over a period of time, we have seen that the rupee is showing a depreciating trend. Sometimes there are some corrections, some spikes but it balances out wh ere rupee continues to depreciate over a quarter or a 6 month or whatever. Now with the kind of government that has come up in US where ‘US First’, making US strong, making the manufacturing hub and all that, probably this trend of rupee depreciation vis-à-vis dollar or to put it the other way around , we expect the strengthening of dollar unless there is a major disruption which is unlikely. You would have heard some BRICS saying we will have our own currency. Europe was trying to exert the Euro to become a major currency. In between we had heard China-Russia will get together. But those were more of a rhetoric, and we don't expect either BRICS or for that matter Euro or for that matter the China-Russia bloc can dominate the international currency reserve market anytime in the near future because the US government seems to be very focused on that, that they want to remain the international currency market leader. So, that puts us into a reasonable spot where we need to be comfortable and not worry too much about the foreign exchange fluctuation.
Next question comes from the line of Deepak Lalwani with Unifi Capital.
I wanted to clarify on two numbers. So, you mentioned that some amount of the order book has been deferred in January. So, if you can indicate the quantum of that and also the revenues which got slipped into Q4 the shipments which got delayed you can indicate these two amounts.
Again, if I give you any of those numbers I would be speculating because we are talking about the quarters. But we have won a few large export orders and a few large shipments have gone beyond 31st December. I am sure when we meet next quarter, I would be able to give you those details.
The order book mix , so barring the 20% export mix , if you can give us a sense on how the various avenues of order inflows are panning out. Firstly, what is the mix of state and central funded projects, firstly, that? And how the various avenues are playing out for us, the center, the state, exports and the oil and gas?
If you are looking at exports as I told you currently our exports is around 27%. Now within the domestic sector if you look at my revenue pie, the major contributor would be water sector. If you just take the domestic market as a whole about more than 50% would come from the water sector which is served by the DI market and the helical pipes. Less than 40 or around 30 -40 would be oil and gas and the rest would be the industrial sector which is being serviced by the seamless and stainless division.
That what I would request you send a mail. I don't have that figure in front of me of how much center and how much state because again there is an overlap. There are a lot of projects where center and state, they put their funds combined in terms of in some of them center puts more state puts les s. In some it's the other way around. But still if you wish to have that breakup, please send a mail and our team will respond to you with the breakup of center versus state.
The big project that you're planning to announce in the next 6 months, if you can indicate an amount like the CAPEX required for this project and the funding that will be required. What I wanted to get a sense is on the debt levels, will it balloon back to the one-time debt equity ratio which we were earlier working with? So, how should we look at the funding for this project and the quantum of this?
See, one of the reasons that all these projects are being examined very carefully that we remain committed, that we would not let the debt equity ratio become very aggressive. We are also conscious of our rating, and we would definitely do everything to make sure that we continue to enjoy the high rating. What exactly is the debt level would only come once the kind of the contours of the projects are finalized. But for now, you can take comfort that on 10,000 crores, close to 10,000 crores net worth the debt equity will not go which is not sustainable to maintain our rating or not something that we cannot manage. We have put in a lot of effort to get the debt under control and definitely that would be one of the considerations on how much debt we can take and how to kind of time them , put them on a timescale so that we have a corresponding increase in the revenue, EBITDA and contribution. So, that exercise is being done which will balance it. As we have managed in the past, we will continue to manage the capital structure very carefully forward, as we plan for our next phase of growth.
On the order inflow front you mentioned that the state projects are doing fine. The central there is some lull. So, we got an order inflow of about 3.6 lakh tons in this quarter. So, should we assume a similar number going forward as well that 3.5 lakh ton per quarter should be the run rate?
No, we expect this to go up. Wait for the budgetary announcement which is on this Friday. We expect that the infrastructure momentum or push must get a fillip by this government because please recall there is an important factor, this government has 4 years life still left. So, I am sure they would want to announce those infrastructure projects, provide the necessary funding so that before they end this term, they are able to get the benefit of all the infrastructure projects that they want to complete during this period. So, we expect this budget to be in that direction given a lot of impetus to be.
Lastly, we have a bunch of products, but I wanted touch upon the DI segment. So , if you can indicate what is the utilization leve l at the DI plant , also, the order book status ? We used to maintain a full we had a full order book for that plant , how is that shaping up? And given the slowdown have you seen any moderation in pricing of the new tenders? Yes , those are my questions.
On DI, now the Har esamudram plant is contributing well. So , both Samagoga and Haresamudram plant is contributing well. Both are operating at a capacity utilization of more than 80% or so. The order book remains healthy. We have visibility for the next few quarters in DI and that is one part because of the state government lot of initiatives. We are seeing some strong demand in the DI segment.
And any moderation in pricing that you witness for the new tenders?
Pricing moderation, we don't see any large-scale reduction, unless there is a corresponding dip in the raw material prices. Because at this point of time if you see the way the demand supply is being balanced, we are still in the sellers’ market. We do not have a glut; we don't have a capacity which is excess than otherwise we would not have had a few quarters of order book. So, we don't expect the margins to get squeezed unless there is a very sudden spike in the raw material prices which is kind of an aberration.
Next question comes from the line of Priyanshu Chauhan with Investec.
First of all , I want to understand the quantum of our stainless-steel volume and ductile iron volume. And secondly, I want to know about the forward-looking approach on the steel prices and coal prices. So, can you please elaborate?
You are not audible. First you talked about stainless steel.
Yes.
The stainless steel we are currently doing approximately 5,000 but that's a fast-improving graph. So, last quarter we did about 5,000 tons which is a very quickly and fastly improving graph. We should see a year end close to 15 and next year we should go more towards 20-25. That's what the indication is for the stainless segment. The second question was coal. The coal prices are now stable. It is around $200 and it should remain stable there.
Can you please elaborate on ductile iron pipes also, the numbers?
Ductile and pipes, you want to know the quantity or what do you want to know?
Yes, I want to know about the quantity.
The quantity that we did in the last quarter.
Yes.
And in coming quarter?
Coming quarter, I can't make a forward-looking statement but there's nothing to indicate that this trend should not continue or should not improve a little bit.
Next question comes from the line of Ria Mehta with Equitas Investments.
My first question is in regards to the new capacity coming up. So , Jai Balaji is one player and Welspun is also coming up with new capacity. So, with a little slowdown in domestic area where do you think new growth will come so that the industry will be able to suffice the capacity they have?
One you said Welspun in DI and the other one was?
Jai Balaji.
Welspun coming in DI, we welcome them because that at least adds a little bit of a maturity. We have another good player. But the way the demand is going up that would be more than what the capacity would come up. So, the status quo of supply demand balance will not get imbalanced. Balaji coming in DI that's a little distant future. We don't know how much capacity because Balaji is not one of the very serious quality player , the way we see ourselves or we expect Welspun and a few others to come in like Tatas and all.
In seamless you said that you have double d the capacity. What kind of contribution does this plant currently give? If you could help in terms of volumes.
See, currently seamless is doing approximately 60,000 per quarter. Now we expect that once the new capacity comes up, this 60 should definitely go to 80, 80 plus, 90 and then it will rise higher because it would take some time to stabilize. So, the 60 we expect first to rise up to 80- 90 and then go further up.
Apart from seamless is there any other brownfield CAPEX that you are eyeing for?
No, at present there is nothing which is announced , nothing that is getting implemented. As I already said there are few projects which are on the drawing board, which are getting examined which we will definitely have details for you, our call next quarter or if we are not ready by then the quarters are after that.
You also mentioned that export you're seeing large orders coming. So, which region are these orders coming from and is it oil and gas or water?
How is the project at NEOM happening? And we've read in news couple of news that there are some stalled projects in NEOM, are we facing similar things?
NEOM Phase I the large contract we have completed. We are expecting the new order to come in.
There is no slowdown in CAPEX there, right?
There is no slowdown in…
CAPEX in the NEOM ordering.
No, NEOM please understand, in Saudi Arabia NEOM is one of the pet projects. It's a new capital city being built by the Crown Prince and he is absolutely on top of it.
So, the tenders for the new orders have already been placed and we have applied for it, right?
Yes, we are in discussion.
Next question comes from the line of Gargi from Value Investments.
My first question is that in this quarter have we seen any benefit of lower coking coal prices and do you expect the same benefit to continue considering that the coking coal prices are expected to remain range bound of $200 that you have mentioned?
Coking coal is largely used in our blast furnace which goes into the DI pipe making. Now, once our new vertical loading coking coal plant has been commissioned, we definitely expect that there would be a reduction in cost of production. Plus, there would also be a benefit of more power generation because of the waste heat recovery. The combined impact of that is going to be to reduce the cost of production in DI because this captive power plant also supplies power to Samagoga where our major DI capacity is placed. So, it would kind of shield us from the market driven prices of coking coal. It would be at a much lower level, once you add the benefit of the power that we generate from the waste heat energy recovery system that we have put, it would be a further reduction in the cost of production. Another improvement that we have made in the blast furnace is to pu t the PCI, pulverized cold injection which has further reduced our cost of production. So, with all of these we should be very well placed when it comes to the DI production to address the market very effectively and consolidate and maintain our leadership position.
As I understand that there are three benefits that are expected to redu ce the cost of production for the DI part. So, one is the coke oven battery, second is the PCI that you have mentioned, and third is the WHRS. So, including all these three, is it fair to assume that this would reduce the cost of production to Rs. 3 to 5 per kg, after a quarter or so?
Let me just say this way, it would give us a sizable reduction but putting a number to it will not be possible because that is competitor sensitive. I don't want the competitor to know tha t how much extra margin that I have which, not that how much money I would make but giving this kind of a benchmark gives the competition a sense of how to price their product if they want to compete and therefore, please don't ask me to put a number to it.
Second question is on the part of the US subsidiary. So, if you could briefly explain. So, what exactly we are doing in the US subsidiary and what are the key drivers for the growth and margins there and little bit on the export opportunity in Hunting as well?
The US subsidiary of Jindal Saw is largely a coating facility which takes pipe as free supply , coats it and gives it back to the client. Now these pipes are largely used in oil and gas sectors. So, with the improved environment of more drilling , that means more pipeline , more transmission means more pipelines. It should give a fillip to our coating unit that we have in US which is a subsidiary of Jindal Saw.
In US actually most of the local players in the markets that we operate are having the coating facility. So, what is the advantage that we are having over here for having a facility separately in the US?
All the players do not have all the coating facilities. Plus, being located in Baytown which is just 25 miles from Houston we have a huge locational advantage.
A little bit on the export opportunity of Hunting?
That opportunity is there, see wherever premium connection, now we have become a very large supplier of premium connection products in India. And definitely with their name and our name where most of us are individually pre-qualified, we would be addressing the export market very soon. Because when you address the e xport market, at least three things come to our benefit. Individually we are pre-qualified, v ery well-known, very well established. They are pre- qualified, very well-known, very well established. Together in the joint venture we have now established a very good presence in India with a good track record now eight nine months in operation. So, this should help us make an entry into the international market very soon.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, due to time constraints, we have reached the end of question- and-answer session. I would now like to hand the conference over to Vik as Singh for closing comments.
Thank you. I would like to thank Jindal Saw management, on behalf of PhiliPCapital for giving us the opportunity to host them. Now I hand over to Mr. Mantri for his closing remark. Over to you sir.
Mantri has just stepped out. Let me do the closing formalities as well. Thank you to all our stakeholders. Thank you to all our investors and people who are interested in listening to us. You would have seen as I continue to say, we are here to stay and we are here to stay with the long term. So, people who have a medium-to-long-term vision, they are the ones who benefit the most when they align with us. And especially if you like infrastructure, if you like oil and gas and if you like stability , robust business, then we definitely stand in line and pretty much in the frontline, forefront. We will continue to do good business. As I have already mentioned to you, that we are conscious that we are plateauing on our current capacity. We have managed our capital structure very well because as I have been saying, this is necessary to prepare ourselves for next round of growth. And now things are being plann ed where very soon we should have all the necessary elements put together to propel the company into the next round of growth and the next trajectory that we want to move. So, with these I wish you all very happy, I would say January end enjoy your budget session. We expect a lot and some of the people who may be interested in going to the Kumbh, I wish you all the best. The news that I am getting from Kumbh and this is I am addressing primarily to the people who are in western part of India. And now the crowds seem to be easing out, the temperatures now getting more moderate. So, you can plan if you have any indication. So, go and have a happy dip in the Kumbh. With that, thank you very much.
Thank you on behalf of Jindal Sa w Limited, t hat concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.