Thank you, sir. We will now begin with the question and answer session. The first question comes from the line of Mohit Kumar from ICICI Securities.
Mar 2025 call
My question is, with the government looking to free up the pricing for existing concession, what do you make of the draft proposal?
So, we have been in agreement with this, and we have been pursuing along with all other associations that this comes to fruition very quickly because this is with the evolution of TAMP, the regulation on prices should have also been removed.
So, this is -- broadly it is as per industry liking the adjustments on the revenues and formula which you have agreed as per the adjustments?
No, it is -- you see finally in the end analysis the -- although the pricing is free, you can only charge up to what the customer or the market can bear. It's not something that it's for the industry to charge exorbitant rates because there are -- most of the port sector, the companies have 2 port solutions. So that I don't think will be a major issue that people will be pricing themselves very exorbitantly.
Understood. Sir, my second question is, can you please explain the nature of investment in Logistics business of INR15 billion, which you have earmarked for FY '26?
Yes. So, there is, I know -- we have acquired Navkar and Navkar also, they have not invested in last 2 years. So, we see lot of low-hanging fruit. So we will be investing -- Board has approved around INR170 crores to be spent in Navkar. Then we are looking to -- as per our plan of INR9,000 crores, we have spelt out. We are increasing -- we are pl acing some orders for the rakes. So, that would be a substantial investment, what we are looking around INR600 crores in that. And then there are GCTs and there are some acquisition possibilities, which we are right now working. So all put together, we are looking at INR1,500 crores to be spent during this year.
Understood. Last question, sir, on the volume, especially Dharamtar and Jaigarh, I think they are flattish for the last couple of years. Is it fair to assume that we'll see some growth in FY '26?
See, as we said earlier also, at our -- these locations, we are depending on the group cargo, and group cargo, we will have a growth -- lumpy growth. So, they are running at a particular capacity so till the new capacities come in, we will remain at the same level. So it was little subdued last year, but it is almost stable. You can say that the cargo will remain there. So our growth is coming from third-party cargo. So '27, '28, we are expecting quantum jump and both these steel plants, still we have capacity from 10 million to 15 million tonnes. And that will give benefit of, say, around 12 million to 15 million tonnes at our Dharamtar and Jaigarh ports. So, if you take all this together, the growth would be quite good on a CAGR basis. But if you see on year-on-year basis, it will remain stable.
The next question comes from the line of Priyankar Biswas from BNP Paribas Exane.
Sir, can you provide some guidance or color if you can, let's say, what sort of cargo volumes we can expect in FY '26 and potentially what sort of logistics revenue you will be targeting to clock in FY '26?
So, broadly, we are looking at a 10% growth in Port volumes and the revenue in the Logistics business, we are looking at around 50% growth.
So 50% growth is at the entire logistics, not just Navkar, so total?
Total.
Okay. And sir, one more thing that a lot of our growth outlook is also -- so a more future growth when it comes, it also is, hinges on berth privatization at major ports. So, are there anything we are seeing in the near-term pipeline? So, let's say, next 1 year?
So, already 2 expression of interest have come out. One at Kolkata Port, one recently at Paradip. So this, we are expecting this process to be speeded up in the coming months.
So, any idea of what can be the sizes of this, like if we have to factor in?
Broadly, we are looking at concessions coming out in the range of -- at least 30 million to 40 million tonnes per annum in the -- on a per annum basis in the next 1 or 2 years.
And just one last question from my side. So, in the fourth quarter, just like in the previous year, was there any take-or-pay type of revenues? And also, can you also give the ESOP charges in FY '25 and possibly what you see in FY '26?
Yes. So, like every -- last quarter, whatever the take -or-pay quantities are assessed and then revenue is earned. So in this quarter also for our LNG berth at Jaigarh Port, so revenue was booked on the take-or-pay basis. On the ESOP charging, again, the cost in this year was much lower compared to last year, as we said earlier. So it was lower by INR20 crores in Q4.
And would there be any charges in FY '26 ESOP?
So FY '26 will be just INR25 crores. For the full year. So now it is -- almost everything is already charged off.
And sir, at Jaigarh, can give that take-or-pay quantum if it's possible. That's the last question.
The next question comes from the line of Alok Deora from Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
So, just had a few questions. First is on the port side. So, this iron ore volumes particularly have been lower even in this quarter, which it was the same thing in the last quarter as well. So where do we see that going for Paradip iron ore volumes because that's coming at around 2 million tonnes.
So, during the last quarter, if you remember, when we had spoken that time, Vedanta mines had not come on stream. So they have n ow come on stream. So -- and there were issues on pellet exports because of low prices. So this will be a slightly volatile market. We'll not be able to kind of exactly predict the nature of this because primarily a large part of this mov ement is for the export market. So, we will be watching the trends. But broadly, right now, there is some demand that we have seen that most of the forecasts are for $100 of pricing, which is a good enough pricing for movement of iron ore.
Sure. And sir, you started your comments with about global uncertainty and challenges in supply chain and -- so, how do we see the movement in volume shaping up ahead? I mean you also mentioned about the 10% growth in cargo volume for FY '26. So is that like a base case scenario or could there be any downside or upside risk to that number? Just wanted your thoughts on that?
So broadly, if you see, we cater to steel, energy and others. This is our broad mix of cargo handling. In steel, if you see, most of the movement is for domestic use, except for some quantity that moves at Paradip. So, our impression is that with the duty safeguards also coming in for steel imports, we foresee that the steel market will be doing well. So, on the cargo front, we have nothing to fear there. On the energy front, we are seeing that there is a huge demand for energy and coal being the primary base for that. So there also, we are not foreseeing any major change. And lastly, on containers, we have a very small exposure to -- at Mangalore, and that is also, if you see the trend of traffic there is primarily to South Africa or the Middle East. So we really don't foresee much of challenge in this uncertainty. And that is what I had pointed out that we are pretty confident on this guidance that we have given.
So, 10% guidance is on a conservative basis only, and it is -- no way it will affect with the current tariff issues which are going on. So it is a very conservative guidance. So I don't foresee any issue in that.
Got it, sir. Just one last question. So in the logistics business, I mean, we are incurring losses at this point primarily due to Navkar consolidation. So how do we see this moving ahead in terms of -- you mentioned about the revenue being 50% higher in '26. How do we see the profitability moving, because we have taken it now and it's been almost 2 quarters? Have we got the synergies getting in place now or our expertise getting into that or it will take some time before we kind of turn also profitable?
See, we have just finished 6 months. So, we see lot of opportunities in the logistics sector and Navkar will certainly do well. In fact, whatever was their accounting practices and our practices, there were certain cleaning up required, certain provisioning were required. This is all one-time, which has all been done with this current year ending. So, their normalized EBITDA, if you look at it, it was anyway INR50 crores, INR55 crores. So, because of this cleaning up, they ended with sort of a INR10 crores EBITDA. And with -- now, since we have aggressive plans for logistics sector, we are looking for 50% plus revenue growth. And EBITDA will also have a quantum jump from the normalized EBITDA, which I talked about. So we see a lot of scope going there and our overall logistics play in which there are a lot more things to happen, so Navkar will also get synergy of that.
We are looking at, at least an EBITDA of INR100 crores at Navkar in the current financial year.
So, with 50% revenue increase and EBITDA levels -- from normalized EBITDA, it may go almost double. So lots of opportunities are there in the logistics sector.
The next question comes from the line of Achal Lohade from Nuvama Institutional Equities.
Sir, just wanted to understand, for achieving this INR8,000 crores revenue in logistics, what kind of capital employed are you looking at? What kind of further capex are we looking at?
So, Logistics, we have set a plan that we'll be spending, say, INR9,000 crores overall in 5 years, INR1,000 crores almost spent. And this year, we are contemplating to spend another INR1,500 crores. So our plan is by FY '30, we'll have INR8,000 crores of revenue with INR2,000 crores of EBITDA. And we see this happening with the -- with current year itself, we are exploring certain opportunities will start giving EBITDA from the current year itself.
Right. And in terms of the time line for the greenfield project , if you could just highlight how are they tracking, what stage of approval are we for each these? Can you set...
The major projects like let us say, Jaigarh and Dharamtar expansion, they are already on track and work -- civil works have already started at both places. Similarly, JNPA liquid terminal, we should be looking at commissioning it by July, August this year. So we are on track there. At Tuticorin, we are looking at doing it -- Tuticorin, we are looking at completion by Q4 of FY '26. Mangalore container terminal expansion, again, we are on track. We should be doing it by Q2 of '27. Goa, as I told you, it's completed. LPG terminal at Jaigarh targeting by June '26. And Keni Port already, we are looking at applying for the regulatory clearances from environment. Jatadhar, the concession agreement should be signed by this quarter. And we should look at completion by March '27. And slurry pipeline also, it's -- as I told you, it's going on around 200-plus kilometers have been welded, 180 has been lowered, and we look at its completion by March '27. So these are the major projects which were supposed to come up before March '27. So we are more or less on track on these projects.
Understood. And can you just clarify a little bit with respect to this 10% volume growth? How much are you building from the third parties and how much would be captive growth or captive could be more -- group cargo could be more flattish?
So here, our growth, we are looking at -- you see the interim operations at these 2 terminals at JNPT and Tuticorin, this will be giving us around 50% of that growth. The rest 50% will come from better utilization of capacities, primarily at Paradip coal terminal and at Goa. So the -- as was told by our CFO also that since the capacity expansion at Dolvi steel plant is from 10 to 15 will be the place where we'll have a lumpy growth.
So the rest all will remain more or less at similar levels. So next year's third -party cargo will obviously further increase from the current level of 50% because most of the growth is coming from third-party in the next year's plan.
Understood. And just 1 last question. With respect to -- there were certain media articles about the green energy projects, which we are looking at. If you could elaborate a little bit on that? So what kind of processes and what kind of capital can we see deploying there?
So, at Jaigarh Port, we are looking at these opportunities and a lot of -- there is a lot of interest from various companies to set up green ammonia type of stuff. So we are very keen. And once we have something here, we can always plan to have it in Keni also. So things are being seen by the various interested parties. And as soon as something materialize, we'll keep media updated.
So is it fair to say that whatever capex we'll do it will be obviously basis the customer's needs? So it's not that we'll set up capacity and wait for the customer. Have I understood...
No, no, we are not setting up. We are just enablers. This gives business to the port.
Better utilization of our waterfront is what we'll be looking at.
Understood. Any material capex is not expected on these counts, is that right?
No. Unless there is a guaranteed traffic that we see. Otherwise, we are not looking at it.
Our next question comes from the line of Ankita Shah from Elara Capital.
Sir, only 1 question on margins. Given th at the mix is going to change, also you're expecting improvement in the logistics segment. So how is margins expected to pan out in FY '26 -'27, given that our port expansion is going to be more back-ended? So how the consolidated margins expected to pan out?
See, now we have to look at the segment reporting. So port margins will remain, say, around 52% or so. And our logistics, we are aiming around 15% margin. So we'll have to see separately. If you look at the combined one, it has to come down because logistics will always be like this. And we are looking at over a longer period of time, even logistics margins going up to 25%. So -- but currently, if you look at immediately, which is 12%, 13%, it will go to 15% by next year.
The next question comes from the line of Koundinya Nimmagadda from Jefferies Group.
Sir, a couple of questions from my end. Firstly, on the third -party volumes, I mean, you did speak about FY '26, but on a sustainable basis, what should be the growth that we could -- we can look at it over here maybe? Because, I mean, till 9 months we saw strong growth with addition of new ports and then this quarter it's only 11%. So on a sustainable basis, what is the number that we can look at it over here? If you can also briefly touch base upon the key industries that drive this growth? That's the first question.
Okay. So here, basically, if you see the growth that we are looking at in '26, 70% of it will be primarily from third-party, 30% will be group. So that is what will be the ratio in the coming...
The incremental growth.
Incremental, that is from 117 to another 10% that we're looking at. And in the long-term basis, we -- between -- till the Dolvi plant expansion comes on stream, you will be having a higher percentage of third-party vis-a-vis the group cargo. And once it comes on stream and the other projects like slurry pipeline, Jatadhar are coming on stream, you will be broadly seeing a movement back towards more of group cargo. So that will be kind of varying in the range of 55% to 45%. In this range, it will be moving up and down as and when the projects get commissioned.
Sir, can you speak a little bit about the catchment area o r the industries that will give you this growth over here because adding port is 1 part and then getting volumes through for that port is a different thing, right? So that's where I was trying to understand?
So, primarily, if you see the government is now promoting something called rail-cum-sea route movement of coastal cargo, especially for energy needs across India. So there, the key getaway, energy getaway for coal is Paradip. And that is where our Paradip terminal comes into play for the energy requirements across South India. And now we're looking at Western India and North India as well. Similarly, iron ore catchment area, the main mines are in Odisha. And if you would have seen our entire long -term strategy has also been to have a terminal at Paradip, as well as to add the slurry pipeline to Jatadhar to further augment and reduce transportation costs for every customer, including the group customer. Then on the receiving side, we have Jaigarh, Dharamtar and Tuticorin is on the receiving side. So these are agents and Ennore. So these are agents strategically located points, which are serving mostly cement or energy plants. So both of which go hand-in-hand with the movement of steel. So the moment the steel production and steel requirements go up, this also starts moving up. So broadly, if you see our terminals are very strategically located to ensure this volume growth, not only now, but also in the future.
So basically, if you see our terminals, most of them are running at a capacity of 80% to 100% capacity utilization. This is primarily because the location is like that, the interland is very nearby. They all developed. So we don't foresee any problem in getting cargo.
Understood, sir. Very clear. Sir, my second question is on the logistics front. So we have this large plans of INR8,000-odd crores revenue and also taking up margins from 14%, 15% currently to 25%-odd. So I'm just trying to understand how do we plan to offer cost -effective logistic s because ultimately, even for the end customer, it makes sense only if the logistics cost that we offer cost comparative vis-a-vis with our existing vendors with third-party vendors even if it's JSW Steel. So how do we intend to offer this logistics solutions also at cost-effective level and also increase the margins for us?
So I'll just give you 1 example that we are looking at strategizing this growth in an asset -light model. So our main targets are getting into Gati Shakti terminals where we don't have to spend a huge capex on building the railway sidings or purchasing land on -- at very expensive rates. So that is the first part of it is the terminal capexes, we are looking at a way lower than what the industry generally does. Number two, we are looking at powering these terminals through group cargo wherever they are available. And this through a combination of rates, additional containers and new terminals, which move into the right market. Lastly, we are looking at reducing the emp ty return ratio of this rate so that on return, we get third-party cargo and other cargo so that the entire model sees to it that we are able to reduce the final cost for the customer.
Understood, sir. The last one bookkeeping question. When can we pencil in this 15 million tonne per annum for Goa 1Q FY '26? Or will it be further delayed from that?
We'll -- already, as I told you from 8.5 million to 11 million, we have already done. And this is a part of a process. And hopefully, this should be done in the next 2 quarters at least.
Two quarters. Sure, sir.
I'll go ahead with my questions. The first one I pick up is on logistics. I think we talked about the INR600 crores plus kind of quantum the country for this segment on ra kes and it's kind of compared to what CONCOR does on a regular basis. Just trying to get a sense, is this more domestic kind of business that you are trying to set up on the logistics front kind of ties in with your strategy...
Absolutely. This is domestic growth would be much higher what we have planned in next year in Navkar.
Yes. So these ra kes that you are going to kind of get will be used for the domestic business, right, more than EXIM, right?
Yes.
Understood. The second question that I had was more on Dolvi. I wanted to get a sense from you that post it becoming 15 million tonnes of capacity and that's giving us a fairly solid growth in fiscal '28. Is there scope to grow the asset further from there? Because -- or would the same thing happen again that you will scale up a volume in a single year and then the growth may taper off?
Okay. So there at Dolvi, you are -- I think it will be moving in tandem with the expansion. So after that, it will be always a lumpy growth. One time it will come and after that it will start stabilizing at that. There's no other magic that can be done to get something extra there.
Yes. So essentially, the question was that, beyond 15 million tonnes, can that asset grow at all? Is there a limitation to where it stands because, obviously...
No, I understood your question. So when we reach to 10 million, it was very difficult to think of going to 15 million. So we have reached 15 million. So there is always a possibility that because this brownfields are always easier to implement, cost -effective, as well as time -wise also, greenfield is always difficult. So there could always be a possibility of going further from 15 million also.
And just to add, Aditya, when this plant was acquired by the anchor customer in 2011 or '12, it was 2 million tonnes and a lot of people questioned at that time whether it will go to 5 million. And now then it went to 10 million and now it is progressing to 15 million. So things turn out, there will be land acquisition nearby and the things kind of change. So right now, for ecasting what will be the figure is difficult for us.
Sure. Could you also share the ports revenues and EBITDA for the full year and its comparison versus last year? This makes it easier to compare numbers because logistics coming inside of otherwise.
Yes, for the FY '25 would do. Yes.
So FY '25, as I said, throughput is 9% increase. Revenue -- total revenue we talk is 13% increase. EBITDA is 15% increase. Operational EBITDA is 14% increase, PBT is 25% increase and PAT is 33% increase.
And just to add, it's also given on Page 12 of our investor presentation, you will have financial performance for ports for the quarter, as well as full year.
Maybe a final question. This was asked earlier. So just trying to get a little bit more color. So JNPT and Tuticorin's could contribute how much in the full year next year? Would it be a 5 million tonne plus number that one should be expecting?
Yes, certainly, it's exceeding that.
About 5 million, 6 million tonnes should easily come from these assets, right?
Yes, sure.
That clarifies. And maybe the last final thing over here. When you say 50% increase in logistics, I am assuming over a full year number of INR400-plus crores, right, is the guidance?
Yes, full year number is around INR485 crores. So from there, we are looking 50% increase.
The next question comes from the line of Ketan Jain from Avendus Spark.
Yes. Sir, I had a question. So recently i n February, we read a news article saying that there is infrastructure plans to enter into airports, probably buying a stake in some airport in Bengal. What is this about, sir?
So this was just a discussion stage at some platform in West Bengal this was (#line was cut)
Thanks for the opportunity once again. So my question is, can you please help us with the update on the expansion of steel plant in Dharamtar? Is it fair to assume that the steel plant will come by March '27 or Q1 FY '28?
Yes, yes. So this is scheduled for March '27. On the conservative side, we are talking about September '27, but work is progressing well. So we will be ready from port side by March '27 in any case. So we hope that we'll get full year. Otherwise, if it's something a few months here and there, to that extent, it might be different.
The next question comes from the line of Ketan Jain.
My question was on the airport, sir?
Sir, my question was on the airport thing in Bengal you are answering.
Yes. So, see, being a large group, there are many proposals keep coming. So we have not evaluated anything on the airport or not in discussion on the Board. So, if there is any such things, if we decide, we will certainly go for -- then inform the media or investors. But at the moment, there is no such proposal or no such discussion. This was something came up and it was stopped. So nothing has progressed on that.
Understood. Sir, also, can you provide me with adjusted PBT and PAT numbers for 4Q and FY '25?
Ketan, we can connect off-line. I'll give you the adjusted numbers. Is that fine?
Yes, yes. Okay. Fine. Not a problem. And sir, just 1 last question. As you said, we've expanded on the Goa capacity. So do we see a growth in volumes in FY '26, more than say 5% at Goa?
Yes. We have told you that it will be -- Goa will be a part of the growth in this year.
Goa, we have been always 100% capacity utilization we have seen because there is no doubt of cargo there being the cheapest cost option for Vijayanagar. So we expect similar trend for the - - whatever the 11 million tonnes they have -- now we have got the approval. So this should be near to that.
The next question comes from the line of Veenit from Investec.
Yes. Sir, a few months back, there have been media articles around JSW Grou p entering into other type of metals, including copper. How that can help JSW Group, JSW Infra, in particular? What opportunities would lie there if we were to tap into?
So it's quite far today, the JSW Group is contemplating for going for c opper, but how much capacity and all those things. So, as and when they come up, if there's a nearest port, if they are nearest port, definitely, we will have an opportunity to add that cargo into our port.
Understood. And sir, what could be the ratio of input to output? For instance, in case of steel, we require anywhere around 2.5 million, 3 million tonnes of input in form of iron ore and coal. What will that ratio be in terms of input to output?
No. We have not gone in that -- those details as of now. So as and when there is a concrete proposal, we'll certainly come back to you.
The next question comes from the line of Nikhil Rungta from LIC Mutual Funds. Nikhil Rungta Sir, I just have 1 question on Navkar. Sir, you mentioned like you'll be investing around INR170 crores this year. And on the sales side, 50% growth, EBITDA of INR100 crores at least. But one of the statements which you made was next year, you have much bigger plans for Navkar. So if I have to look from 2 to 3 years perspective, what type of CAGR can we look at and on the revenue side and the EBITDA side?
No, no. When I said next year we'll go big, this is basically on the overall logistics p lay. So, Navkar is a part of overall logistic play. So Navkar, we have given guidance of next year only. We'll come back on further future years separately. But what we said when we'll invest INR1,500 crores, this will be a larger logistic play. As far as Navkar is concerned, we have -- Board has approved INR170 crores of investment as of today.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question for today. I would now like to hand the conference over to the management for the closing comments.
So thank you, gentlemen, for your time. And I'd like to conclude that despite all the uncertainty in the global market, we are very confident of the guidance given to you of 10% growth in port volumes and the logistics part of it, which is primarily internal. And we are very sure that we'll be meeting the guidance given for the year '26. Thank you, gentlemen.
Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, on behalf of Nuvama Institutional Equities, that concludes this conference. You may now disconnect your lines.