Thank you very much. We will now begin the question -and-answer session. Our first question comes from the line of Balasubramanian A. from Arihant Capital.
JWL · FY2026 Q3
Jupiter Wagons Limited analyst Q&A
My first question is regarding wheelsets. The industry is currently facing a shortage of nearly 32% to 35%. By next year, the Titagarh and RK Forgings JV is expected to commence wheelset production, and we are also progressing with the Odisha project, particularly for wheelsets. I am trying to understand how wheelset supplies are likely to improve by the next financial year. Additionally, will we need any special approvals to supply wheelsets to Indian Railways? For example, if we manufacture wheelsets, can we directly supply them to Indian Railways, or can they be used more broadly? Further, since we are also targeting export orders, could you please indicate which geographies currently have strong demand? Lastly, I would like to understand whether wheelset pricing in the range of INR 2.5 lakh to INR 3 lakh is viable for exports.?
Thank you for your questions. First, on the wheelsets, as you rightly said, capacities are coming online by end of this year or by next year. So I think once these private capacities come online, I don't think there should be any challenges on the availability of wheelsets. As we've already mentioned, and we have also given notifications from time to time that we're already supplying to Indian Railways for LHB and other applications. So in terms of approvals from Indian Railways, we don't see any challenge. So the facility ha s been designed with the approval standards of Indian Railways in mind. So we don't perceive any kind of challenges with regard to getting the approvals. And definitely, once the facility is approved, as the wheelsets they completely fall under Make in India policy, we can use those wheelsets for our own production. So we don't see a challenge in that regard also. With regard to the export market, as you are aware that Tatravagonka is a very active participant in this project and they themselves have a sizable demand for wheelsets. They buy close to about 50,000 wheelsets annually. So for us, they would form our biggest buyer category. And since it's captive, so we don't see that to be a challenge. In terms of pricing, we have already reviewed the pricing. And we are very confident that we will be able to meet the pricing targets, which Tatravagonka has given us.
My second question, is on that private wagon side, if you could quantify the market size of the private wagons segment, that would be helpful. Additionally, are we receiving repeat orders from the same customers, or could you highlight some of the industries from which we are consistently getting orders for private wagons? Further, could you also elaborate on the types of wagons for which we are currently receiving inquiries or that form part of our order book?
So see, the demand in the private segment continues to be very robust. It is across all segments. I think, steel, cement, the container and the auto segment, I think these four segments form the bulk of the demand. Our major customers, I think, continue to remain the same. And they are the biggest buyers, and we keep on getting repetitive orders from them. I cannot disclose very specifics of the order books right now. But this year, most of our orders have been from our existing customers only, and they have been repeat orders. So again, we are continuously in the process of developing new cars. We have recently developed the double -deck auto car, which we'll be rolling out the first rake, our first rake is completely ready, and it will be rolled out any time. We are very confident on that segment, and we expect a lot of traction in that segment in calendar year 2026 and 2027, both years, we expect very strong traction. We have a very strong order book on the cement wagons. We have got new inquir ies on those wagons where we continue to pursue the lead. On the container wagons itself, I think the demand is very strong. And now with the trade agreement, which has been signed, I think the demand is going to become more robust. Indian Railways is also working on it , again, reviewing the container policy. They are making it much more user-friendly. There's a lot of infrastructure work, which is happening. We believe that the JNPT connection will happen sometime very soon. I think once that happens, it will be a huge fillip to the segment. And steel also, now we are seeing new demand coming in, and we expect that demand to whatever understanding, which we have had and discussion which we had with the steel industry, we expect this year the demand to be quite robust because there's been a lot of expansion in capacity, which has happened. So yes, so I think the private sector, we expect the demand momentum to continue.
Yes, a follow-up, in the wagon industry, between railway and private wagons, what is the current mix? Earlier, it used to be 80:20.
So it never used to be 80-20, it used to be 60-40 or 50-50. And the mix used to remain the same. Our private order book continues to be very, very robust. So the mix right now, I think our private order book is about 70% and the balance is the Indian Railways order book.
Okay, my next question, we are supplying high-value components for Vande Bharat and Metros. So what are the new product lines and strategies to moving up the value chain? Especially in the passenger coaches side?
See, this year itself in 2026, we will be entering the passenger rolling stock business and in the next few months, you will get to hear our announcements coming on that, our partnerships. So one is that we're entering that segment as an OEM. On the component side, we have very strong joint ventures with Kovis, DAKO and Stone India, we are expecting our licenses to come in this coming quarter. So Stone India, I think by the third quarter will become operationalize. So across, we are in the final stages of developing couplers, we have couplers for the LHB passenger coaches, we're in the final stages of developing the same for the Vande Bharat. We have got orders from railways to develop the buffer system for Vande Bharat and high -speed trains, and we are in the process of doing the trials for the same. So there are a lot of components which we are working on. And as you have seen that our non-wagon business continues to grow. So over the next 2, 3 years, you will see a definite i ncrease in the non -wagon business and addition of more portfolios in that segment.
Okay. And my last question, on the EV side, we are targeting INR200 crore revenue by FY27. And what is the current month-on-month volume growth rate on the EV mobility side?
Month-on-month, I think we are growing at close to about 20% to 30% in that segment. And by April or May, we expect to hit our run rate of about close to INR20-odd crore of revenue per month. And that is why we are very bullish on the revenue targets of INR200 crore, which we have set. And that will be mainly led by the battery storage business, which is growing around close to 100% month-on-month. We are expanding our capabilities and capacities there. Plus on the industry side, also the battery system, which we supply, that business is also continuing to show a lot of momentum. On the truck segment, we are launching another truck variant in the next quarter. That will also give a lot of momentum in the market. We have recently invested in a new battery line in Indore, which will enhance our battery capacities and capabilities. Indian Railways is in the final stages of finalization of their policy fo r buying lithium-ion batteries. I think once that policy guidelines are finalized, it will give a very, very strong momentum and push in terms of adoption of these batteries in Indian Railways. I think that itself will give a huge boost to the segment.
Our next question comes from the line of Sahil Patani from Strokes Capital.
Couple of questions, Vivek. I wanted to understand now as a part of the U.S. trade deal as well as the European trade deal, what kind of opportunities are you seeing? And obviously, this is more long term, but what kind of products are we targeting, and what would the product mix look like going forward as we open up these export markets?
So in both markets, I think there is a big opportunity. In the European market, definitely our major focus is on our wheelsets. I think once the plant is operational, we expect sizable business to come from the European and the global market. And besides Tatravagonka also, we are in discussions and with other customers. But however, at this stage we cannot reveal our discussions. But in the next 1 or 2 quarters, we will be revealing on the other potential opportunities in that segment. We have already started working on CBAM because we are very serious on the export side. I think in Europe, the biggest challenge in the Indian industry is going to face on the CBAM and which, I think, unless people are already up preparing themselves and gearing themselves up, Europe is going to be a major challenge. On the U.S. market, again, we do export crossings. That supply has got little disrupted because of the tariffs. But after those supplies, both crossing as well as containers we were supplying. I think that business is going to pick up. We are in very strong discussions with an American supplier to supply complete integrated battery storage systems to the American market. I think that is a huge opportunity for us, especially given the fact that China has a much higher tariff than India, so the price differential is there . One is that the customers want alternative supply chain. And secondly, because of the tariff, the price differential is now working in our favour.
Understood. Okay. And my second question is, I think last year, we gave like a very conservative revenue guidance of 10% to 15%, right? But obviously, it seems like we'll be closing below that. Now given the trends and the disruption in wheelsets from Indi an Railways, how do you kind of foresee FY27 to pan out?
I believe FY27 is likely to remain muted. While the disruption has eased significantly, we do not expect it to be fully resolved . And whatever, our wheel capacities we had in Aurangabad, they're already fully utilized for the order book we have from Indian Railways and for our demand on the private side. So though we have expanded capacities there, but still with the expanded capacities also, I think that facility is working close to 100% of its capacity. So this year, definitely, on the freight car side, we expect our numbers to be muted. Also, I think we are expecting tenders from Indian Railways also, either in the next quarter or the quarter after that. I think that gave a huge fill -up to order book. But then with the new tendering from Indian Railways and the momentum we are seeing in the private side, and with our wheelset capacities coming online, we expect 2027, 2028 to be a very, very strong year. Because I believe our base has now been prepared very well, and we are fully prepped for 2027 and 2028.
Our next question comes from the line of Sandeep Mukherjee from SKP Securities Limited.
My only question is, what is the pending number of wagons in Q3 FY26?
It's close to about 8,000 wagons which we have pending right now.
Okay. Out of this 70% will be private, sir?
Yes. Yes.
Our next question comes from the line of Parvez Qazi from Nuvama Group.
I'm sorry if you've answered this question earlier, but just wanted to get your views on any potential wagon tender from the Indian Railways? What could be timing of such a tender, if any?
Honestly, it is very difficult to predict the timing. If you look at the Indian Railways budget, they have mentioned around 32,000 wagons. We expect this to materialise at some point during the year.
Our next question comes from the line of Rajesh Bhandari from Nakoda Engineers.
Sir, there are many people now into leasing, wagon leasing. So people who used to buy wagons earlier, if they lease instead, will that affect business?
See, definitely it will not affect business because we already have a very strong partnership with GATX in this segment. We currently do not see adequate value addition to justify entering this business. Given that Jupiter is already qualified for a leasing license, licensing is not a constraint. Our present focus remains on maintenance, which is entirely managed by Indian R ailways. But on that also policy guidelines are changing and Indian Railways is privatizing maintenance to some extent. So we are more interested in that. I think , that is going to be more critical than the leasing. Leasing is not going to be a challenge at all.
Yes, yes, that maintenance probably will be more paying also.
Yes. And that is what is our code and we can give better value to our customers. So I think maintenance is something which we are very focused on.
You indicated that the pending order book stands at 8,000 wagons, largely from private players. We also understand that a government inquiry for approximately 32,000 wagons is likely.
Out of the 32,000 wagons, could the number vary between 30,000 and 40,000? And with so many wagon manufacturers, would each player get about 7,000 to 10,000 wagons?
Honestly, the allocation of orders depends on several factors, including past execution, available capacity, and overall performance. It is not as though any new entrant can simply secure a large order book. In most tenders, the performance criteria remain very stringent.
What is our per month capacity?
Today we can make minimum 1 ,000 wagons if there is no wheel constraint. If order book remains strong, we can make up to 1,000 wagons.
In the last meeting, I recall you mentioning that the wheel -related issues had largely been resolved. However, this time as well, our turnover and the ultimate PAT have remained relatively low. When can we expect this to improve?
What I said is correct that if you compare from last quarter, this quarter our performance has been much better. I think in revenue there has improve considerably.
No, I agree, this quarter was better than last quarter. But if you take last nine months and this nine months, then there is a lot of difference?
See last nine months, as I mentioned earlier, wheel supplies were not a challenge last year. My expectation is that, although the disruption has improved considerably, it is likely to persist. Our incremental capacities are expected to come on stream by the end of this year or at the beginning of next year. Once these new capacities are operational, and as we anticipate additional orders from Indian Railways, we expect that 2027 and 2028 will be very strong years.
That means FY 26-27 will go a bit slow?
Yes, yes, definitely.
One very positive aspect I observed in Jupiter is the level of profit — around INR 300 to 400 crore. In comparison, others are reporting profits in the range of INR 100 to 150 crore. This has been a key strength for us. However, it now appears to be modera ting. Could you comment on this?
Sir see even now if you look our EBITDA margin if you compare to industry peers our EBITDA margin is quite strong. And if you see the decline in EBITDA margin is minimal. Last year I think we were around 14% and this year we are maintaining close to about 13%. So that is not a very big differential given the disruption which we have faced. So EBITDA margins will improve and the biggest plus is that our other businesses, especially wheel business , the commercial vehicle business and the containe r business, those businesses are doing very well and their numbers if you see compared to last year, those numbers have improved significantly and we expect this momentum to become stronger and stronger.
So overall 2026-27 turnover and profitability, that will be better than 2025-26?
Next 2027 and 2028 definitely, as per our anticipation, I think that will be one of the best years for Jupiter.
I want one clarification. You said 2027 and 2028 meaning FY26-27 and FY27-28?
FY27-28.
Okay, meaning not 2026-27, it is 2027-28. Right now we are in 2025-26.
This year as we said that our wheel new capacity will come in 2026 end or 2027 beginning. So till that capacity doesn't come, this disruption will remain. So next two or three quarters we expect that the disruption will continue. But post that we are very confident that there we will have a very strong growth momentum. It’s not just wagons — our other businesses are also growing well, and we expect that growth to increase . Plus passenger business also we are now foraying into. So quite a lot of new opportunities will emerge.
But government approval is done? For your passenger coach, metro and Vande Bharat?
No, there is no government approval in this. We are a global player who has already all certifications available. We are entering into a partnership with them, so they already have all our certifications and qualifications available.
Because going forward, there will be tremendous demand from metros and projects like Vande Bharat, as there are many such developments underway.
There is a strong policy push from the government in that area, which is why we are also focusing on it. At the component level, we are very strong in this segment.
And you mentioned there is some trade problem with EU?
No, there is no trade problem with the EU. We currently have a trade agreement in place, and we expect trade with the EU to remain robust. What I was referring to is CBAM, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism introduced by the European Union. Earlier, th ere was an exemption, but it has now been implemented. Companies are required to be compliant, and we are already working towards meeting those requirements. CBAM could act as a trade barrier for companies that are not prepared for compliance.
The European Union has introduced a requirement that, for any products supplied to the EU, companies must declare the associated carbon content.
Okay, carbon policy.
Yes, we are referring to the carbon policy, as there are tariffs associated with it. If you do not declare, or if you exceed the prescribed limits, tariffs will apply.
Yes, correct. Okay, sir, I would like to understand this in a little more detail. Regarding the carbon policy — if the steel you procure has a lower carbon footprint, would you benefit from that?
Yes, definitely. Steel is just one part of it. It also depends significantly on the processes we follow and the extent of green initiatives we undertake.
Our next follow-up question comes from the line of Sahil Patani from Strokes Capital.
Vivek, so I think as you mentioned, right, I think FY28 is going to be pretty good for the company. And previously, we've also given a guidance of INR8,000 crore to INR10,000 crore in FY28. So given this financial year, which is 2027 will be like more or less flat for us. Are we saying that by FY28, over the next couple of years, we will more than double our revenues?
Definitely, and that is what we are targeting, and that is how we have built our product portfolio also. So if you look at all our other segments, say, if you look at the battery segment or the battery container storage. These are segments where India has just started localizing. So as you saw in case of solar, the initial momentum was very small. And as the industrial base was established in India, the government introduced significant tariff barriers . And then you saw a huge momentum in that segment. Similarly, the battery segment is well positioned for strong growth, driven by robust demand from both industrial and solar applications. In addition, the government is introducing a PLI scheme for the container segment. As you are aware, we are one of the largest container producers in the country, and these PLI incentives will significantly enhance India’s competitiveness in the global landscape, particularly vis-à-vis China. Currently, China accounts for nearly 90% of global container production, which prese nts a substantial opportunity for us. Regarding wheelsets, as I mentioned earlier, at full production, this business has a revenue potential of approximately INR 2,000 crore to INR 2,500 crore annually. This will represent a significant source of incremental revenue. Furthermore, our other segments, including the Commercial Vehicle business, are also demonstrating healthy month -on-month growth. Overall, our expectations remain very positive going forward..
Okay. Understood. Got it. And when you kind of thought of that number INR8,000 cores to INR10,000 crore with last year, there were a couple of unknowns. We didn't know if the European deal would go through. We didn't know about the U.S. India trade deal or those things were like a bit unknown, which you have clarity on. So does that kind of give you a bit of like enhanced confidence to do better or even surpass that kind of a number?
Definitely, it gives us a lot of confidence and clarity because all the ambiguity has now been removed. In terms of the business landscape or I would say, the regulatory landscape, the picture is very clear. The government is very keen to push exports out o f India, and we have the right partnerships to enable that. So definitely, we are very, very positive. Again, in terms of numbers, I would not like to comment right now. I think as and when we start delivering, and that is when we are going to talk about the numbers.
Our next follow-up question comes from the line of Rajesh Bhandari from Nakoda Engineers.
Just one question, you mentioned that wagon deliveries would improve once your wheelset production becomes fully in -house. However, sir, wagon wheels are supplied by Indian Railways.
No, see, Indian Railways supplies wheels to us at a specified price. If we are able to source Make in India wheels at that same price, we can use them in our wagons.
Oh, okay. So we can use our own wheels — it is not necessary or compulsory to source them only from Indian Railways.
Yes, provided the wheels are approved under the Make in India policy.
I was under the impression that only Indian Railways would supply the wheels. Understood.
Thank you. As there are no further questions, I would now like to hand the conference back to the management for closing comments.
Thank you for the same. As we move forward, we remain encouraged by the strong momentum across our businesses and the continued strength of our execution. With wheelsets supplies improving, our freight wagon business has meaningfully regained operational momentum, while the excellent visibility across our other business lines positions us well for sustained and profitable growth. We are excited by the abundant opportunity set across both domestic and export markets. Our focus remains firmly on execution excellence, disciplined capital deployment and the continued strengthening of our manufacturing and integration capabilities as we work towards delivering long-term sustainable value for our stakeholders. Thank you for your continued trust and support. We look forward to updating you on our progress in the next quarter.
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