Lupin Limited

FY2025 Q3

2025-02-12 Transcript PDF
Kunal Dhamesha

Thank you for the opportunity and congratulations on a good set of numbers. First one on the limited competition launches for us in US market over the next two, three quarters. We have discussed a few names. I just wanted to understand that for those names like g eneric Jynarque®, generic Glucagon, and probably Risperdal Consta, are we on track? And am I missing some key product here, which we might be able to launch over the next couple of quarters?

Vinita Gupta

The major products are Tolvaptan and Glucagon, Risperdal Consta and potentially Liraglutide. So those will be the key products for next year.

Kunal Dhamesha

And can you suggest the probable timelines of that? Tolvaptan is I believe is quarter one FY26 but on glucagon and Risperdal Consta, is there any update in terms of approval?

Vinita Gupta

So we are making progress on both applications with the agency and would expect that hopefully , approval sooner rather than later. But I think it'll be safe to assume that Tolvaptan would be the major contributor in the first half of the fiscal year and the injectables should ramp up in the second half very nicely.

Kunal Dhamesha

And the recent inspection at Somerset, has that anything to do with our Risperdal Consta filing? Was it a PAI? Vinita Gupta Yes, it was a PAI but for a suspension product, for Edaravone. The Risperdal Consta product comes from Netherlands, and is manufactured at a CMO and both were inspected by the FDA last year and progressing well. Kunal Dhamesha And second one on the India business. We have cited that the slow growth is primarily due to issues in respiratory therapy , and I believe the respiratory therapy growth itself was quite low despite being in a winter season. So what are the factors that is leading to the slower growth in your view?

Nilesh Gupta

I mean the market seems to be that way. I mean sequentially the number is as an absolute number up actually f or respiratory, but it's been lagging for a while versus the rest of the market. Even for nine months, the market was only at 4%. We were at 3% for nine months and I mean the quarter again has been disappointing. I do think it'll bounce back. I mean we've had periods of high double-digit growth on respiratory but for the last 12-16 months, it's just been slow. I think the focus right now from a respiratory perspective in the market has been more on anti -infectives and the like, not so much MDI, DPI inhalation kind of products. But we believe that it'll bounce back, hopefully in the next couple of quarters.

Nilesh Gupta

Our focus is primarily on that.

Kunal Dhamesha

Inhalers, right?

Nilesh Gupta

Yes, primarily MDI, DPI, a little bit of nebulization. That's it.

Moderator

Thanks, Kunal. We'll take the next question from Tushar Manudhane from Motilal.

Thanks for the opportunity, sir. Particularly first on the R&D spend , though the guidance is that it is going to increase in the fourth quarter, is there any specific projects which you would like to highlight which is going to require a higher R&D spend compared to INR 434 crores spend?

Vinita Gupta

Your voice was very muffled, but if we got your question correctly, you're asking about the reason for the R&D spend ramping up. A good part of it is our complex generics portfolio. It's five nasal sprays actually that we expect to file in Q4 versus the rest of the year. So majority of the spend is coming into quarter four. Also injectables, there's a good amount of increase in the second half of the fiscal year. So it's primarily respiratory and injectables.

Moderator

We'll take the next question from Bino from Elara.

Bino Pathiparampil

Just following up on that question on India. So this contribution from this tender business which has helped us show growth in that line. What's the nature of that? Is it going to be steady next year as well or will it grow or will it drop off next year?

Nilesh Gupta

In India on the institutional business. I mean it's been fairly flat. It's been a meaningful number. It will continue into the next year as well. But I mean, we always call out the business with and without. The India R egion Formulation business, which is the domestic sales business, is 5.8% year -on-year or 9.1% for nine months.

Bino Pathiparampil

So this tender part of the business is likely to stay flat next year?

Nilesh Gupta

Yes. I mean it's a good number and it will continue with that good number.

Bino Pathiparampil

Second on Mirabegron, what are your latest thoughts around the litigation? Are you planning to continue selling it at risk? Any further thoughts since the last call?

Vinita Gupta

So no change in terms of litigation status. We continue to navigate through that process. In the meantime, the generic substitution has gone up. The overall available market has gone up and our share has ramped up nicely as well. So no real change from a competitive scenario standpoint from the litigation developments.

Bino Pathiparampil

And the status quo is likely to continue for a few quarters or what are your thoughts?

Vinita Gupta

As we navigate through all of the outcomes of litigation, I mean, we expect in the first quarter of next fiscal year to get a decision on Mirabegron 2 patent and continue to litigate the others. So definitely for this fiscal year, we don't expect any change and then we'll determine the next fiscal year based on the outcome of litigation.

Bino Pathiparampil

One last question to Ramesh. We have been be nefiting from this PLI-related income. How long is it likely to continue? How many more quarters?

Ramesh Swaminathan

The benefit is there for next three years.

Bino Pathiparampil

But I believe you are booking up front or so. So at the current level, how long will it continue? How many quarters?

Ramesh Swaminathan

So there would be a decline for sure next year. In the normal course, you would be expected to look at about INR 200 crores on an annual basis. But you have the benefit of actually taking up to a third more in a particular year alone, which we've taken advantage of this year. But obviously, it would impact on the total quantum of monies that you can claim over the next three years.

Moderator

The next question is from Surya Patra from Phillip Capital.

Phillip Capital

So first of all, could you clarify what is the nature of this provision that has been created and have you shared about the specific nature of the dispute also?

Ramesh Swaminathan

So it's basicall y coming in from litigations, and we don't talk about which litigation and the like. It's a conservative provision and that's what it is.

Phillip Capital

There is nothing to anticipate or nothing to see any kind of risk relating to the Mirabegron right now?

Ramesh Swaminathan

No.

Phillip Capital

Second question is on the respiratory portfolio as a whole. If I remember right, then respiratory has become a more than 30% of revenue contributor putting all geography put together. And the current period is a kind of a respiratory pro respiratory season. So what kind of performance that you would have seen for the overall respira tory portfolio for the quarter ?. We have seen moderation, let's say, in India, we have seen some kind of competition in the US relating to Albuterol to be specific. So given that, is there any risk that one should think or consider about this portfolio?

Ramesh Swaminathan

You know, the secular trends would kind of indicate that respiratory is going to be very important for us in America and in other parts of the globe and of course India as well. There would be some quarter-on-quarter variations and the like. And that doesn't necessarily mean that the secular trend is going to be upended.

Phillip Capital

But this is a kind of a peak season al period. During that period, we are witnessing relatively underperformance. That’s why the question was.

Vinita Gupta

So it's a really strong contribution both in US, Europe, Canada, as well as growing in other parts of the world like Australia. And of course in India, we have the respiratory market growth at a muted level that is contributing to the lower growth. But overall, respiratory still continues to be a major therapy area for the organization. It's an area where we expect to bring all the material generic products to market across the globe and we expect to also innovate like we have done in India w ith the two triple novel combinations. We continue to work on respiratory green propellants for US, Europe as well as India plus other products we have the opportunity to bring to market , brands like Xopenex® in the US that have been fairly s table. And while we have a low growth in respiratory in India, we're seeing the flu season pick up in the US again, we're seeing another peak. So the market shares on the respiratory portfolio is fairly strong.

Phillip Capital

Last question is about the cost. It is great to see your cost optimization measures really contributing to the improved margin now , and also possibly improved margin is flowing from the improvement what we have been seeing in the US business as a whole. So there would be an element of Mirabegron which could be a positive surprise. So given that, going ahead, in the next 12- month period, what kind of a margin performance that we should see for the US business? I may not require the number, but q ualitatively if you can talk something about the next year's US profitability that we are anticipating?

Ramesh Swaminathan

So there are some tailwinds in terms of forex which you cannot be sure about. But the focus on cost is eternal insofar as we are concerned and we have seen some good results coming in. We have seen also tailwinds when it comes to input costs. But again, as I said, there are geopolitical tensions, et cetera that are actually moving parts . You can’t be certain. But I think if you talk about overall margins, I did indicate the fact that between 22.5% to 23.5% would be a good range to aim for the next fiscal as well.

Phillip Capital

Also, are you really worried about the kind of tariff things which has been talked about? Although it has been indicated to be around 2.5% on the pharma also or any US tariff thing area of concern or uncertainty for this moment?

Vinita Gupta

So we are monitoring it very carefully and the industry has made a strong pitch, both from AAM standpoint as well as IPA, the tariffs will have a significant impact on the generic industry if it was implemented. I mean 70% of generic drugs for the US are imported at present, 50% of generics come from India. So there's clearly a significant role that India plays on the generic front and we've made that case with all the major stakeholders. So we'll find out with the current visit of the PM to the administration what transpires. But we are hoping that pharmaceuticals and generic drugs in particular will be exempted. And if it’s otherwise, we'll be looking at other ways and means of mitigating the impact with a combination of manufacturing in the US as well as wherever possible, from a cost perspective and otherwise . We are watching it very carefully, but hopeful that the case made by the industry has been heard and the implication is understood that any tariff impact can really cause more product disruption and drug shortages which no one wants in the country.

Moderator

We'll take the next question from Anubhav Agarwal from UBS.

One question is on Radicava. Vinita, which year can you launch it? Is it next one, two years or beyond that?

Vinita Gupta

Which product are you referring to, Anubhav?

Vinita Gupta

I think it's out for a good number of years. It's not in the next two years.

Second is on the Canada - Semaglutide opportunity. Would you be in the first year of the opportunity or are you pursuing that?

Vinita Gupta

The team is working on it. We're hopeful that we'll be in the first wave between FY26 and FY27.

Moderator

We'll take the next question from Bansi Desai from JP Morgan.

JP Morgan

Vinita ma'am, you mentioned about increasing our focus on the specialty business in the US. So if you could just elaborate on that. Are we talking about acquiring brands like we did in case of Xopenex® or are we also going to evaluate probably late-stage assets? So what would be our strategy here and have you earmarked any investments for this business?

Vinita Gupta

So we do want to build specialty as the third major arm for our global business with the US being a major focus. And assets like Xopenex® is a sweet spot for us, products that fit strategic aspirations, building on the respiratory front and ideally on market assets. But we know it's difficult to really get on market assets. So we're also looking at late-stage assets that are compelling from an investment perspective. And you know that we are a debt -free company at this point, so have the ability to invest for the right programs and opportunities. W e haven't earmarked but are committed for the right assets to explore as well as close wherever possible, both acquisitions. Simultaneously, we are also building a pipeline in the respiratory front with the capabilities we have; on the R&D side, the opport unities that we have on the green propellant front, to take the meter dose inhalers and come up with more climate -friendly and achieving both our sustainability goals and offering a differentiated product to the patients and the market. We continue to innovate on that front on the pipeline. So a combination of both pipeline as well as late-stage assets is what we're looking at.

JP Morgan

And given the biotech funding has been weak out there in the US, is it fair to assume that there are good assets that are available in the market?

Vinita Gupta

There's a lot of opportunities right now that if one could acquire at least a few assets that are meaningful. So really good opportunity to acquire assets.

Vinita Gupta

We expect it to have a stronger tail because it's a specialty product, REMS product. It's the conversion we expect is going to be slower than what you would expect in a simple oral solid and the tail should be longer. So we would expect both second half of the fiscal year as other competition comes in, plus into fiscal year '27, it should be a meaningful product.

JP Morgan

And lastly, in terms of margin trajectory, two years out, when I just look at some of the moving parts, probably PLI would have been normalized. Jynarque® also would have been probably at normalized levels. But then again, you have certain businesses in India which are probably loss -making today and that could probably contribute positively. So how should we think about margins, say, in fiscal '27-28? Would fair to assume it would be higher than where we are currently?

Ramesh Swaminathan

Given the kind of products that we'll be bringing to the market, obviously the top-line buoyancy would continue. There's also the focus on cost and we have taken up a number of initiatives which would actually certainly keep that on a tight leash. And the third aspect of the entire program that you spoke about is essentially adjacencies. Clearly, we are losing about a couple of percentage points because of essentially the losses that these adjacencies are currently lapping up at this st age. But that said, over the next three years, we expect that to also turn positive. But we also have growth plans in terms of spinning it off at some point. So clearly, upward movement on the EBITDA front is certainly to be expected.

Moderator

We'll take the next question from Saion Mukherjee.

So Vinita, Nilesh, if you can talk about Semaglutide, other than Canada, which all markets you already filed. And if you can take us through 2026 and 2027, how should we think about the launches? And your preparedness in terms of formulation and API? And how much will be the dependence on partners for this product? So if you can just draw the landscape broadly for this product over the next two years?

Nilesh Gupta

I think on India - on the injectable, I mean there's going to be many players. We'll have it in that first wave as well. The more interesting part to solve for in India is the oral product, and we're hoping to have that at the time of loss of exclusivity as well. We think that that will be the more important product to deliver on and that will come from an internal development. And then for other markets, we're obviously looking across, I mean Canada we talked about earlier. But Vinita, do you want to add for other?

Vinita Gupta

For the oral solid, which is an opportuni ty also in multiple markets, we have internal development. And for the injectable Semaglutide, we have partnerships in place. For a few markets, we have existing partnerships, others in the works. But we would expect the '27 calendar year to be in at least a handful of the open markets for Semaglutide.

Vinita Gupta

For the oral solid, definitely we have internal capacity, as well as injectable, although we have partnered with companies, we have the ability to double up with our Nagpur facility. But right now, we are counting on partners for the injectable.

And next one was on green propellant. You mentioned Vinita about that opportunity. So how should we think about it? When do we get more clarity on this? And how meaningful this opportunity you see at this point?

Vinita Gupta

So we expect the metered dose inhaler market will move materially, maybe starting in five years, but definitely over the 10 years into the green propellant products certainly with the moves that the major pharma companies have made like GSK, AstraZeneca, as well as Chiesi. From a European standpoint, we hope to be at the forefront as a material player on the respiratory front , with our Xopenex® brand as well as other MDIs to bring better propellant products to the market. So we have multiple products in development right now, not at the stage where we are filing in the next year but cer tainly year next, fiscal year '27, we should start to see product filings.

One more question regarding biosimilars. We sense that the investments slowed down in the recent past. Any fresh thoughts there? Are you planning to step up investments in biosimilars? Any view you have on that space and Lupin’s participation?

Vinita Gupta

Actually, it's a promising trend on the biosimilars front in the US in particular in the last 12 months, both from a regulatory perspective with the FDA easing the requirements on interchangeability, you don't need to do additional studies for interchangeability anymore. And with the trend on private labels from the large PBMs like with Caremark and Humira, what they did with the Sandoz, the Cordavis label that converted the majority of the market from Humira to the biosimilar, that is a promising trend on the market front. In the past, as we looked at it, both from a development perspective, we saw the biosimilars were fairly onerous, capital intensive, and then from a go -to- market standpoint you needed commercial infrastructure and both seem to start easing up at this point . So it's a really positive trend. I mean we have a good number of products for the near term, so we continue to invest in those. As I mentioned, Ranibizumab was filed in EU this past quarter, will be filed in the US. So we have Pegfilgrastim that we still see as an opportunity, as we get the product approved. We have Ranibizumab, Aflibercept, and then Etanercept in '29 that comes into the market in the US where we should be one of three in the market and then we have other products like Certolizumab and M epolizumab respiratory products as well that we are pursuing. So actually, it looks like the biosimilar market is starting to open up and , as it does, we'll continue to look at opportunities . As it opens up and on the one side the challenges come down, but the competition goes up. So our focus is very much going to be in limited competition products where we're going to be in the first wave, where we can be one of two, one of three. That is the kind of focus that we will have from a portfolio standpoint. So it will be a fairly selective number of products that we will pursue.

Moderator

The next question is from Shyam Srinivasan.

On the European market, the kind of growth that we have seen about 20%. If you could kind of articulate what's driven that growth. I think you called out two products, but just want to understand the sustainability of the growth in the European market for the path ahead.

Vinita Gupta

So you know, respiratory portfolio has been a big contributor in the European growth, in particular in the UK as well as Germany, where we've continued to grow our market share with Luforbec®. And now with the Nalcrom® addition in Germany in particular that's helped us grow Germany, you know, the combination of Luforbec® as well as Nalcrom®. So respiratory portfolio has been a big contributor for the European growth and we expect, you know, to continue revenues at the current level. So, wherev er we can, we will grow share. We are getting into new markets in Europe as well. Right now we are in 13 countries with Luforbec® but have the potential of launching in countries like Spain and others. So continue to make inroads there.

And just a second question, going back to the question on tariffs. If you see, there's increasing risk that 10% import tariffs come on critical imports in the US and the critical imports do include pharmaceuticals at this point of time. So I'm just going to ask a hypothetical question. In case it gets announced as early as next Feb 18 th Feb seems to be the date, what are the mitigation efforts in terms of do we have pricing power to increase that onto our customers our you think we are going to have to absorb it at the start and then negotiate? Because moving manufacturing and other stuff while we have capacity probably takes time. So I just want to understand the push and pulls around - I know it's a h ypothetical question but seems - given what is happening on trade, a more likely one than not. So just want to see from a management preparedness in case such tariffs occur, what is the thought process?

Vinita Gupta

So we are looking at multiple different avenues there to look at the impact and how you mitigate it. But as an industry, we have all aligned on the fact that the industry has gone through a lot of pressures. Critical medicines, high- volume low-price medicines cannot bear additional costs. So with 70% of the products imported into the country on the generic front, 50% contribution overall generics from India, I mean one would expect prices would go up in case on critical medicines, in case, the tariffs are implemented. So again, I mean it's hypothetical but as an industry, we have everyone recognizes the impact that tariffs can have on the cost of goods and understands that it either leads to a cost increase for the market or you're going to see disruptions in the market.

Ramesh Swaminathan

And you are not reckoning the response to the Indian government also. They actually reduced tariff on certain rates on certain categories of goods and so on from America. So we don't know their response for this particular category also as yet.

Vivek Agrawal

So the question is related to Tolvaptan. Given that this is going to be an at risk launch and you have highlighted that this is going to be REMS product and conversion is expected to be slower. So what kind of the market share you are expecting during exclusivity? Is this going to be let's say around 15%, 20% or maybe higher like 30% - 40%. So any colour if you can provide that would be super helpful.

Vinita Gupta

We hope that it gets to the 30% - 40% level based on the partnerships we have established with the key channel partners on the product. Vivek Agrawal And a r elated question. Post 18 0 days exclusivity, right, how many players you are expecting in this particular product? Maybe two, three or many other?

Vinita Gupta

Yeah. We are expecting two, three additional players.

Moderator

We'll take the next question from Nitin Agarwal from Dam Capital.

DAM Capital

Vinita, there has been a lot of general concern in the sector with respect to sector facing certain sort of US sales erosion in F Y27 post -Revlimid® sales going away. While we don't have the Revlimid® challenges, we do have our set of large ticket products in FY26 like Tolvaptan, maybe Mirabegron as you mentioned continuing in FY26. So I mean as you see the business looking through a couple of years out in FY 27, do you see a risk of growing or , not growing over the FY'26 base that you will end up creating?

Vinita Gupta

So we have a strong pipeline that we are pursuing. Some of these products that we are expecting maybe competition to come in , just gone by how long it has taken for us to get approv al on products like say Spiriva . That took us five years to get FDA approval. One believes that it's going to take longer for competition also to get approved. So we do feel, with the pipeline that we have in place that we should be able to continue to drive growth in the US market despite pressures on products where you lose exclusivity.

DAM Capital

So I mean if we are going to do double-digit growth all over in '27 or '26?

Ramesh Swaminathan

It depends on so many things really essentially. So we have a rich pipeline but as you say there are moving parts because of various things. But over the next five years, we are focusing on what we think would be the complex portfolio and that would help in kind of securing growth over the next four years, five years.

Vinita Gupta

We expect in fiscal year '26, the US should be at a USD billion plus and then look at how we can sustain the growth from there.

Moderator

We'll take the next question from Neha Manpuria.

Quick question first on the capital allocation. If I were to you know ask for a rank order in terms of, you know, where we would pursue M&A, would it be India, Specialty, biosimilars How should I think about priorities for capital allocation for Lupin?

Ramesh Swaminathan

You correctly pointed out, the highest priority would obviously be India. There would of course be opportunities in generics up to a particular limit in other parts, including America. And of course, we have a larger chunk reserved for specialty itself.

And would you like to earmark a number as to what we would like to spend in, India or US generic in case of acquisitions?

Vinita Gupta

I think Ramesh meant to say, you know, India , Specialty and then gene rics, wherever we need it, in that order. With specialty and India being the major focus.

We don't have like an earmark number as to this is what we would like to invest in, let's say, India, Specialty?

Vinita Gupta

No, it's based on the opportunity and what we see in terms of synergies as well as growth potential.

Ramesh Swaminathan

But having said that, we would be comfortable with a bite -size acquisition, USD 200 million to USD 250 million should be easy enough for us.

Nilesh Gupta

Several of them.

Second, I think in the past, we've talked about CDMO opportunity, you know, that we're probably exploring, you know , for growth beyond, FY 27. Any update there? Have we looked at Cap ex? You know, what's the thought process on that?

Nilesh Gupta

So we've spun out Lupin Manufacturing Solutions and there's a whole team that's been put together for this as well. Efforts are on in all earnest now. They're actually putting the strategy together, which they'll have in place. So we'd hope to give some more flavor on this next quarter.

And have you earmarked the Capex for this, Nilesh?

Nilesh Gupta

No, it'll come along with the strategy.

Operator

We'll take the next question from Harsh Bhatia.

Spiriva market share for FY25, our target was somewhere around 35% - 40%. In December, as for the presentation, it's around 30% - 31%. So what are the plans for Spiriva market share at this stage, including commercial versus Medicare and Medicaid channel?

Vinita Gupta

So the team has done a really good job in activating multiple are as from a conversion standpoint, but we're starting to see some impact already in January where TRx share has become high 30's has gone to 38% level and NRx is 40% plus. So you know the multiple efforts on from a co-pay standpoint to ease the burden on the patient to access into Medicare/Medicaid through contracting, plus other avenues are starting to show results. So we are hopeful that we sustain this level into the rest of the quarter and into the next fiscal year to get the overall market share to hopefully 40% plus.

Just one clarification on this incremental ma rket share that is standing out, earlier mentioned that at a commercial level, you were already at 40% plus. So this incremental market share is sort of coming from the non -commercial side of the business?

Vinita Gupta

That's right.

And this is sort of related to the out-of-pocket capping that the innovator had undertaken let's say a few months back. Does that sort of relate to that in any extent?

Vinita Gupta

No, maybe we can take this question offline but it's needless to say the efforts that the team has put in to drive conversion to our generic are starting to show. We'll have to still continue to monitor the trend to see if it is sustainable but it's looking good so far in January to February.

Very lastly on this USD 250 million run rate for the quarter for FY26, basically USD 1 billion number. What is the assumption for Mirabegron, if I may ask for this number?

Vinita Gupta

We assume that additional competition comes in, in the second half of the year. On Mirabegron, we've assumed that Albuterol faces competition or impact of competition that has already started. And we've assumed that Tolvaptan helps tremendously in the first half and injectables plus Tolvaptan in the second half.

Moderator

We'll take one last question from Tushar Manudhane.

Just continuing on R&D spend. While we have highlighted INR 1,750 crores to INR 1,800 crores for FY25.,would you follow it for FY26 as well? On an absolute basis, how much R&D spend will be?

Ramesh Swaminathan

I would say, as an absolute there would be an increase but as a percentage of sales, it will perhaps be around the same levels. But given the focus that we have on more complex stuff and the like, this is inevitable.

So INR 1,800 crores to INR 1,900 crores safe to assume that much of spend to happen?

Ramesh Swaminathan

Yeah, that's a slight increase over that if necessary.

And just if you could share specifically for Canada Semaglutide, like market in terms of units, how big it could be?

Ramesh Swaminathan

We can take that offline, please.

Moderator

I now hand the conference over to the management for the closing remarks.

Vinita Gupta

Thank you. Hopefully, we have been able to answer all your questions. We'll be happy to take any that we have not been able to get to offline. There were a lot of questions on what is likely to happen in the US from a tariffs perspective. And as I mentioned, we hope that the industry efforts do pay off in terms of to ensure the sustainability of the US generic industry in the interest of patients as well as other stakeholders. From a Lupin standpoint, we are very pleased with how the company has performed this fiscal year and really excited with the potential in the near term with our major growth drivers, looking very clear from an approvability standpoint as well as market launch standpoint, and improving market conditions in new areas for Lupin like biosimilars. We look forward to continue to execute on our strategic plan to drive growth across key major markets and evolve our business from generics into more branded and specialty on top of complex generics in the year ahead and certainly in the next couple of years. So thank you again for your support and attention. We look forward to catching up with you at the end of this fiscal year in May, hopefully in person. Thank you again.

Moderator

Thank you so much, ma'am. On behalf of Lupin Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us. And you may now exit the webinar. Thank you.