Maruti Suzuki India Limited

FY2026 Q3

2026-01-28 Transcript PDF
Moderator

The first question is from Gunjan Prithyani from Bank of America. Please go ahead. Page | 6

Bank of America

Just looking for a bit of clarification on the numbers that you shared on the margin, can you talk about the PGM impact, the 60 basis points that you called out, do we see further pressures on this front? And what is it that we are looking to do in terms of mitigating these incremental cost headwinds that we are seeing? So, a bit more color on the commodity inflation would help. And I think I just need a clarification on the rare earth thing also, what is it actually, if you can share more information. How significant this impact is and will this recur?

Rahul Bharti

So we are seeing some kind of headwinds in commodities at the moment in platinum, palladium, rhodium, aluminium and copper. And some of these are also being discussed across sectors. Some of these have to do with the AI memory chips, etcetera. In terms of rare earth, we mentioned that instead of importing just the magnets, we were constrained to import larger aggregates or sub-assemblies of which magnets were child parts. So to that extent, higher imports and along with that, some air freighting costs, etcetera. So there's a minor impact of about 20 basis points. But the good part is that the government of India has invited global manufacturers to make rare earth magnets in India. So, this won't be a long- term problem. Sooner or later, India will manufacture rare earth magnets.

Bank of America

Okay. And bit more on precious metals, how significant is it in terms of the commodity costs? Is there more headwind to go going into quarter 4 as well?

Rahul Bharti

As of now, we have not taken a view on to the future. But yes, we can mention to you that the PGM content as a percentage of Net Sales in the car is about 2%. And prices of these commodities are in the public domain. So, your commodity analysts can also throw some light on that.

Bank of America

Got it. And my second question is on the demand outlook. I mean you clearly sound very confident on, at least in near-term demand given the pending order book, VICTORIS launch, etcetera. Now that it's been a couple of months post GST, would you be able to share a little bit more color on how do we look beyond quarter 4 going into fiscal '27 industry growth and how do we see Maruti performing relative to that? Any product action? Anything that you can share more in terms of next year growth outlook?

Rahul Bharti

So, as I mentioned, in the immediate short-term, of course, we are constrained by supply, and we are striving to meet demand as much as possible. We have a healthy order book. Our share within the SUV segment is growing, so all positive. Having said that, the query remains in our mind, what is the sustainable level of demand after the euphoria is over. So, I think in about a few months from now, we will again do a careful review and a careful assessment of what is the sustainable level of demand in the next year and in the next few years. I'm sure quarter 3 would have involved some element of postponed demand and some of preponed demand. So, quarter 4 seems to be good, but we need to look beyond, and we'll make an assessment in a few months from now. Temporarily, we had given out an initial figure of about 7% volume growth on a sustainable level for the industry, but we'll make an assessment in about 3 months. Page | 7

Bank of America

Got it. And just lastly, just housekeeping, if you can give the discounts and the retail volumes for quarter 3?

Rahul Bharti

So of course, as we mentioned, the discounts were at a much lower level. As you’re aware, discounts are function of market strength, volume growth, market buoyancy and competitive action. So, we gained by about 120 basis points if we talk about both discounts and mix put together.

Bank of America

Okay. Retail volumes and I will join back the queue.

Rahul Bharti

Retail volume, we did about 684,000 units in Q3.

Moderator

The next question is from Chandramouli Muthiah from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

My first question is just around the amalgamated financials. So, if I were to just compare, it looks like the change to amalgamated financials is causing close to about INR700 crores quarterly increase in depreciation, and that number potentially comes out of the lease, rentals line that you had mentioned, which possibly sits in other expenses. But having said that, the other expenses, I think pre-amalgamation versus post-amalgamation is almost flat at close to INR 3,700 crores quarterly run rate. So, I just want to understand if there was a meaningful pickup in other expenses this quarter and what potentially drove that? And if there are any sort of one-offs sitting in the other expenses number? Or if that is the sort of steady- state run rate we should assume going forward for this level of volume?

Arnab Roy

I'll take this question. You're right on the classification part of depreciation and rent. I think Rahul already touched upon it in the beginning. So overall, at an EBIT level, there is nothing significant in terms of the impact. But yes, as we explained earlier that pre-amalgamation, everything was accounted in the material cost rate. Now it has moved into the natural heads. So that's what the change is with almost neutral level at an EBIT. In terms of the other expenses, sequentially, if you look at it, there is nothing one-off per se, I think it is regular business expenses. So, nothing particular to call out. It's a combination of various small things.

That's helpful. Second question is just around export volumes. I think over the past 4 to 5 quarters, we've been doing a healthy clip of 25%, 30% plus volume growth. This quarter, I think the volume growth on exports was more sort of low-single-digit run rate Y-o-Y? I just want to understand if there's any one-offs on the export volume. And just related to that, if there's any clarity you're able to provide on how you're thinking about South Africa as an end market, just in the light of some of the news flow items around potential increase in duties in that market?

Rahul Bharti

So yes, there was a one-off in the quarter 3. We missed a shipment for some logistical reasons. On South Africa, we have heard the news today. But it's only a media coverage. We will try to understand what exactly is in the mind of the government, and we'll understand how it goes. Having said that, I may mention that exports is always a mixed bag. Page | 8 There are always some countries which take prominence or which have some changes happening. So, the top few countries always keep seeing changes. It's a very dynamic scenario. So, the best thing is to be broad-based across a wide portfolio of countries, and we have 100- plus of them. So, we'll try to de-risk to the maximum possible. But still, we are exposed to all kinds of global trade and tariff-related issues.

Got it. That's helpful. And lastly, if you could you share the export revenue for the quarter, please?

Rahul Bharti

It's about INR 8,200 crores in Q3.

Moderator

The next question is from Arvind Sharma from Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Citigroup

Thank you for taking my question. If you could just tell us the reason for this quarter-on-quarter decline in the average selling price despite the more apparent positive mix shift?

Rahul Bharti

I don't think it's the Net Sales. In our top line, apart from the sale of vehicles , we have other items also like parts, dies, moulds, etcetera. So, it's not necessary that everything moves in the same percentage growth as others. So, there is no reduction in ASP of vehicles as such.

Citigroup

Blended ASP even accounting for the mix, sir?

Rahul Bharti

So that may include other things like parts.

Citigroup

Got it. Thank you, sir. The second question, if I could ask, would be on VICTORIS versus Grand Vitara. Have you seen any shift from Grand Vitara to the VICTORIS? And if you could throw some light on its impact on overall profitability, sir?

Rahul Bharti

So, the VICTORIS is our latest model. Of course, it should contribute to profits healthily. There's no doubt about it. But if you're talking about cannibalization, we've been having these kinds of doubts for more than 2 decades now. The WagonR and the Zen, the Swift and the Ritz or the Baleno and the Fronx, now the Grand Vitara and the VICTORIS. The fact is that as a market leader, we have to distinguish customer profiles, and we have to provide a model in every white space. Our pursuit is that the overall volume is the maximum, and all customers are serviced with different taste, lifestyle, wants and desires. So, we are not worried about it at all. The total volume is going up, and our SUV market share is also going up.

Citigroup

Thank you so much, sir. And sir, if I may just ask one small clarification. While you have elucidated the one-off impact on Labour Code norms, what would be the recurring impact?

Arnab Roy

There is no significant recurring impact. It's predominantly the past services cost, which has got accounted here.

Moderator

The next question is from Kapil Singh from Nomura. Please go ahead. Page | 9

My question is on the demand outlook. Could you share your outlook between the segments of hatchback, compact SUVs and large SUVs, where you are seeing a stronger demand pull as we look into the next year? And how is the first-time buyer mix changed after the GST cut, if at all?

Rahul Bharti

So, Kapil, we are seeing a healthy demand all across. Of course, small cars were earlier at a negative growth zone, they have moved from red into black and healthy black. So that's a big swing. Their swing is larger than that of bigger cars. That's a positive. Even in SUVs, etcetera, we are seeing demand. The wholesale numbers may more be constrained by what we are able to supply and which choices we are making across models. So that may not show the true picture, but we see healthy demand all across. There was another question which I missed.

Yes. First-time buyer mix, have you seen any changes before?

Rahul Bharti

Yes. We have seen a positive swing. There are so many ways of defining. But generally, we have observed a delta of about 6% to 7%. That's the increase in the first-time buyers’ percentage, which is a very healthy sign. And anecdotally, we had mentioned earlier that we are seeing a lot of helmets in our showroom, which means there are positive signs that the 2-wheeler owner is upgrading to small and compact cars.

Sir, what is the number? How much is it now?

Rahul Bharti

So, there are so many ways of defining, the increase is 7%.

We used to say around like around 40% or so, right. So, if we should assume 47% or something? Around that?

Rahul Bharti

So, with respect to that benchmark, yes, it has gone up by 7%.

Okay. Fair enough. And sir, the second question is on the pricing. Normally, we take a price hike at the start of the year. This time, so far, we haven't taken. So, what is the thought process here on pricing because we are looking at some commodity pressure as well as we look forward. And we have also taken some additional price cuts in the mini segment. Is that a temporary strategy or a permanent strategy looking at the success of increase in first-time buyer mix?

Rahul Bharti

See, this is a historic GST reform and the momentum generated is from something like 0%, -1%, -2% growth to about 20% plus growth. It is an opportunity when we should build momentum and add to the efforts. We always have time ahead of us where, if we have cost pressures, we can recover that from the market. But temporarily, we would like to continue with the momentum. And it's not ethical also to have a price increase immediately after the government reduces taxes. Some manufacturers may be doing it, but we think we should make a decision in favour of the consumer.

Moderator

Next question is from Mumuksh Mandlesha from Anand Rathi Institutional Equities. Page | 10

Anand Rathi Institutional Equities

For the exports market for CY '26, any outlook you want to share? How do you see the exports market? And also considering the VICTORIS model also started exporting, sir?

Rahul Bharti

VICTORIS, we sent out the first shipment of about 400-500 numbers from the Gujarat port. And we have domestic demand also to service. So, exports are doing good. We are on track to achieve the guidance that we had given of about 400,000 units of exports in FY 26 . And for the next year, we are in the process of deciding our volume target. So, by March, we should have a figure for next year exports.

Anand Rathi Institutional Equities

Got it, sir. On the e VITARA side, how are you seeing the ramp-up? Globally, how is the acceptance of the model? And from a 2,500 average monthly exports currently, how do you see the ramp-up ahead, sir?

Rahul Bharti

So, the e VITARA, as I mentioned in my opening remarks also, till the end of December, we had shipped out 13,000 numbers, which had reached 29 out of the 100 countries. And UK is our top destination in terms of volumes. But the chain is slightly long, it is slightly premature to get retail level feedback, but the momentum continues and we'll keep shipping out.

Anand Rathi Institutional Equities

Got it, sir. Just on the financial side. This forex impact is part of which line item, sir?

Arnab Roy

Forex is part of raw material, predominantly. So that's where it is impacting. And I think in the opening statement, we have already given you the walk there, that 15 bps, which we highlighted to you.

Anand Rathi Institutional Equities

Got it, sir. And sir, possible to share spares number this quarter? And how it has moved sequentially?

Rahul Bharti

Spares, as a distinct category, we've never announced.

Anand Rathi Institutional Equities

Got it, sir. Lastly, just on the steel prices also have recently moved up. Are you seeing the impact going ahead for you, sir?

Rahul Bharti

So, the government had given a safeguard duty in some grades, with some price limits. The auto industry or at least the imports that Maruti have does not qualify for that. However, it appears that the steel industry is using that opportunity to increase commodity prices. Though there was a clear message from the government that the steel industry should not use it to profiteer or raise commodity prices, but it appears there are some such pressures. So, we will engage with the steel industry and mention to them that the safeguard duty should not be misused to increase steel prices, but it appears that there are some signals that they want to increase prices.

Moderator

The next question is from Rishi Vora from Kotak Securities. Please go ahead.

Kotak Securities

My first question is just a clarification on SMG amalgamation. You have said that we have amalgamated effective from 1st April, but I'm also seeing previous year's third quarter numbers are also being restated. So, what is the reason for that? Page | 11

Arnab Roy

As per Ind AS, you have to restate the financials for previous year. So that's accounting stand compliance to make it comparable.

Kotak Securities

Okay. So that is also a like-for-like SMG amalgamated number?

Arnab Roy

Yes, everywhere. I mean when the moment you do it; you'll have to restate all the comparable numbers.

Kotak Securities

Understood. Second question is regarding the 50 bps of Fixed Cost Incidence you talked about. So, should we expect that, that reversal should happen next quarter as we build up the inventory during the course of the quarter?

Arnab Roy

See, it's a mathematical thing. In Q3, there was a depletion in inventory at the factory. Obviously, it's an all-time low. So as and when it reverses, the mathematical impact of that will flow.

Kotak Securities

Understood. And just last question on the commodity side of things. I just wanted to understand that do we hedge any of these commodities? What are the mitigation steps, if any, which we could take in order to offset some of this inflationary impact which may come through?

Rahul Bharti

Yes. The largest commodity is steel, which you cannot hedge. So, we do a quarterly negotiation, and we fix prices for the quarter. Generally, market prices reflect in the next quarter in our purchasing. The others are, of course, PGM and then we have aluminium, copper. So, we take calibrated calls. And we also study some forecasts. So, if a trend does not last too long, then whether to get into a hedge or not is also something that we study. We also study whether the cost of hedging is too high to make it unproductive. So, according to that, we take our hedge calls.

Arnab Roy

And just to supplement here, if you look at it, there is a predictable trend to the commodity, then hedging becomes economical. If the trend is too spiky, which is the situation now, hedging doesn't work out economically. So, we do calibrate hedges, but you have to keep measuring the trend. Is it a short-term spike or the relatively predictable trend.

Kotak Securities

So right now, just to clarify, do we have any hedges or we don't?

Arnab Roy

We do have, but calibrated hedges.

Moderator

Next question is from Binay Singh from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Morgan Stanley

Looking at the backlog that you talked about and demand trends, how do you see mix trending incrementally? Will it be favourable tailwind to margins? Or is it more in the discounted products? Could you comment on that?

Rahul Bharti

Binay, I may want to tell you that once demand momentum comes, the operating leverage is so good that you don't need to think of mix much. So, it's the momentum that is most valuable and that we are most happy about. And we will ensure that capacity is not found lacking, and we will supply to what the demand asks for in the market. Page | 12 Just for information, by April, our second plant at Kharkhoda should become operational. And in a few months from there, the fourth line or the fourth plant at erstwhile SMG or MSIL Gujarat facility should become operational. So, we have two plants of 250,000 each coming in very short time frames. And so far, all segments are doing good, which is a positive.

Morgan Stanley

Right. And Rahul, that leads me to the second question, how to think about EBIT margins incrementally? Because our December quarter utilization rates were quite high, mix looks favourable with high SUV share. But then we did have these one-offs that you highlighted, fixed cost hit and then the price reduction hit and now we have the PGM hit also rising. So how do we look at the margins on the EBIT level incrementally? Do you think this is where the business sort of stabilizes? Are there downward risks from here or upward risks from here?

Arnab Roy

See, I think we have clarified this a few quarters now that we don't give a forward-looking outlook. So, I'm sure you have your models. We can give you the factors. You can do the computation yourself. I think the factors are in front of you. Rahul has articulated in the beginning, the positive factors like the operating leverage. You have seen that 190 bps coming this quarter. You have also seen the lower discount and the favourable mix coming in. Of course, there are headwinds as you have seen on the raw material, foreign exchange and other things. So, these are things for which there are global trends. You can do your modelling and see. But for us, we don't give a forward-looking outlook, and I think we can give you the broader picture here.

Morgan Stanley

And then just lastly, on this price reduction, 70 basis points hit that we said, we had earlier also talked about some of it being introductory prices and then it will get rolled back. So, is there any element to that? Or this 70-basis point of hit of price reductions will continue?

Rahul Bharti

So, we had announced these and customers who had booked that time, some of them we have not been able to provide cars. So, it's not fair to them that prices should be rolled back even before they were able to take deliveries. So, we'll watch. At least till end January, we have committed. And we'll watch when it's the right time to take a call.

Moderator

Next question is from Pramod Amthe from InCred Capital. Please go ahead.

InCred Capital

So, two questions. One is considering the buoyancy in demand and also the low inventory, do you need to do some debottlenecking or what's the capex outlook? Are you advancing it?

Rahul Bharti

So, in terms of capacity, I mentioned that two plants will come onstream. And now we are at a run rate of about INR 12,000 crores for FY26 including the Gujarat facility . For the next year, we have not done our budgeting exercise yet. We'll be just getting into it. So, I think in March, we'll have the figure for our next year's capex, but we are going at the run rate of about INR 10,000 crores a year.

InCred Capital

So, would you balance between capacity versus new model launches? Because those are the two variables which you have on capex. How do you look at it?

Rahul Bharti

Sorry, once again. Page | 13

InCred Capital

When you look at capex, one is for fixed asset, and the second one is for new model launches. Would you balance to fit in that broader number, in that context, to adjust each other?

Rahul Bharti

No, there is no need to cut down on any one of them. If market demand exists, whatever it takes, we will supply. If the customer wants, we shouldn't be found lacking. And there is no dearth of funds.

InCred Capital

I agree because we haven't seen such a 0.5 million capacity being installed at one go. So hence, I was asking on the capex.

Rahul Bharti

That speaks volumes about India's growth story. India is the third largest car market now. And we are putting up almost one plant every year. And there is no time when a new plant is not under construction or commissioning. So that's India's growth.

InCred Capital

And related to that, in terms of new models, is there a delay in terms of EV rollout for India? And how do you look in the context of ICE vehicles coming back post-GST, the EV scenario?

Rahul Bharti

No. There is no delay. It's just that we are serving about 100 markets. So, some kind of time frame, and we've covered 29 already. And the domestic launch of e VITARA should happen very soon now. And in terms of ICE, I don't think GST has anything to do with that. The government is providing big money, whether through the PLI scheme or through other incentive schemes. In addition, the state government is giving. There is absolutely no reason that EV should not grow. We will increase our EV adoption and along with other parameters like ecosystem development, like good service, good assurance on after sales support, charging infrastructure, as I mentioned, so the government has done its bit. It's now the industry that has to respond.

InCred Capital

And the last one is with regard to the EU and UK FTA. How do you see an opportunity for you on export rates and also how are you assessing the threats and opportunities?

Rahul Bharti

The preliminary details that have come out seem to be quite positive. From whatever we've heard that the opening up has been done only above EUR 15,000 CIF price, which translates to something like INR 2.5 million in India. And we are told that even above EUR 15,000, there are slabs. And it may happen in a very gradual manner. So, I believe the government would have been extremely calibrated and sensitive to the domestic industry, while making India participate in the global arena, which is a big positive. And we have always supported liberalization and opening up, particularly when we put our money where our mouth is. We are exporting EVs to Europe. We do not know what are the specific clauses regarding EV exports. But sooner or later, it should be positive for India.

Moderator

Thank you very much. We'll take that as the last question. On behalf of Maruti Suzuki India Limited, that concludes the conference. Thank you for joining us, ladies and gentlemen. You may now disconnect your lines.

Rahul Bharti

Thank you.