The first question is from the line of Mohit Kumar from ICICI Securities.
Mar 2024 call
Sir, my first question is on the Subansiri and Parbati -II. If I remember, earlier the schedule was March ’24 for Parbati -II and June ’24 for Subansiri. It looks like it has slipped, Parbati-II to December ’24 and Subansiri complete p lant commissioning in May '26. Is that number correct, sir?
Yes, yes.
Why there's so much delay at Subansiri, sir, I think you were looking to complete this project in FY’25, if I am not wrong?
Our Director (Technical), Mr. Chaudhary will answer this question.
Yes, you have correctly mentioned that earlier Subansiri commissioning and the Parbati commissionin g was as you have mentioned. In Subansiri, during the last year in October, there was a subsidence in Diversion Tunnel 1, which triggered a hill slope slide on the left bank and that damage d a portion of the hill slope and also damaged the portion of the Diversion Tunnel 1. Diversion Tunnel 1 , unfortunately, got connected with the river at the second poi nt, apart from the diversion tunnel inlet. So , a lot of restoration works is necessitated and we started the w orks and we are on the job. Now , major portion of the restoration works are completed. Although hill slope restoration work is still going on. In Diversion Tunnel 1, there was a lot of seepage and it was even to the tune of 8 to 9 cumecs. Now it has come down to less than 1 cumec , and we have completed the blind portion of the plug in Diversion Tunnel 1. Now we are hopeful and we are going well. The balanced portion of Diversion Tunnel 1 plug shall be taken up after the current monsoon season. So , this is the main reason of shifting the commissioning schedule of the Project Subansiri Lower. So for Parbati is concerned, there was delay in excavation. But now the excavation of the Parbati -II is completed, day lighting was achieved and only concrete lining is left . We are presently going ahead with the concrete lining with the help of 4 steel gantri es and we are going well and we are comfor table. We are confident that we wi ll achieve the commissioning by December’24.
When do you expect the first unit of Subansiri to be up and running?
March’25 because the unit is ready. Unit 1, Unit 2 and Unit 3 is almost ready. Unit 3, just we are going to lower the stator and thereafter rotor. Unit 1 and 2 already boxed up. So , only this civil works and some portion of hydro mechanical works will be completed and we are hopeful that we are going to commission the first, second and third unit in March’25.
Understood. My second question is, what is our capex target for FY’25? And is there any chance of starting the work on any pumped storage hydro projects?
Our capex target for FY’25 is to the tune of INR11,761 Crore and this expenditure does not include any expenditure on pumped storage projects because it will take some time to complete the DPR of our first pump storage project i.e. Indra Sagar Omkareshwar pumped storage project. So, we have not kept any expenditure for pump storage facility in this financial year.
Is it possible to give the breakup of this capex, sir?
Certainly. We have kept INR456 Crore for the Parbati-II Project. Then, INR1,000 Crore for Subansiri Lower; INR950 Crore for Dibang. Then, we have kept around INR950 Crore for new upcoming projects, which include Sawalkot, Dugar, Dulhasti Stage-II, etc. Then we have kept INR1,623 Crore for solar projects, which include 1000 CPEC Scheme projects and other projects which we have won in bidding process in Gujarat. So , INR1,623 Crore is planned for solar projects and total capex in NHPC stand-alone basis INR5,131 Crore. Then we have planned INR3,371 Crore for our Chenab Valley projects, which consists 3 projects i .e. Pakal Dul, Kiru and Kwar . For Pakal Dul, we have kept INR1,750 Crore; Kiru, INR1,181 Crore; and Kwar, INR427 Crore. Then, we have kept INR550 Crore for our solar projects, which we a re doing in our one of the subsidiaries i.e. BSUL. It consists 3-4 projects, which are at different stages. Then we have kept INR1,198 Crore for our Lanco Teesta-VI Project in the state of Sikkim and for Rangit-IV, INR460 Crore. For Ratle, we have kept INR950 Crore. So, this is the breakup of INR11,761 Crore capex which we have planned for FY 2024-25.
So one clarification as I'm talking about your joint venture projects, are you talking about the equity requirement or the total capex?
So this is total capex. It includes loan also.
Next question is from the line of Anuj Upadhyay from Investec India.
So this question again belongs to Subansiri and Parbati. Because of the delay in the COD, that is the commissioning date, I believe there is a revision in the tariff rate on the upper direction. I'm aware that the PPA has been signed, but how will the beneficiaries are placed to take up this project at a revised tariff rate?
First of all, PPAs ar e in place. In case of Subansiri, rate is slightly higher, i.e. around INR5.60 per unit . But we will do some reengineering to lower the tariff and to get the power sold and in respect of Parbati-II, the rate is INR6.59 per unit. So, we will do some reengineering to lower the tariff. We will accept lower operation maintenance charges for the first 5 years and we can plan for a longer period of depreciation. So we will try to keep it within the range of INR6 and there will be no loss to the company. So far Subansiri is concerned, the latest tariff is coming at INR5.60 per unit and that is well within the saleable range and there will be no loss to the company on account of ROE or any other things.
Okay. So this will be on a cost -plus basis, right, sir? There's nothing as such a fixed price...
In case of Dulhasti, in the year of 2007, the tariff was INR5.50 per unit, and there was no issue. So , this tariff will also not be the issue in selling the power.
Okay, sir. Secondly, on the capex, you mentioned the capex for FY’25 would be INR11,761 Crore on a consol basis. Is it right, sir?
Correct.
An approximate figure for FY '26 as well?
For FY '26, our capex is in the range of INR13,317 Crore. So, again, it will be in the same range. There is a plan for INR13,000 Crore plus.
Got it, sir. So roughly, it's like INR25,000 Crore is what we are planning over the next 2 years. And how...
In the next 7 to 8 years, it is in the same range. We will be incurring capex in the range of INR13,000 to INR15,000 Crore every year.
Okay, okay. And sir, how well our cash flows are placed to meet the equity capex requirement of this quantum? I just saying INR13,000 Crore is a roughly capex requirement that entails roughly INR3,000 Crore to INR3,500-odd Crore at an equity requirement, considering 70-30 kind of a debt equity investment. So how well our cash flows are placed? Could be helpful you can take us through that?
We are very comfortable on account of cash flow because only 30% is to be a rranged for equity. So keeping in view of our internal accruals, there will be no issue of cash flow. We have to arrange maximum equity of around INR4,000 Crore annually.
Okay. So INR4,000 Crore equity can be, I mean like internal cash flow can be easily made through the operation.
Our current PAT is in the range of INR3,800 Crore and the depreciation is in the range of around INR1,200 Crore. So our internal cash accrual is in the range of INR5,000 Crore. So after deducting the outflow on account of dividend, around INR3,200 Crore is available for capex on account of equity. So going forward, our PAT will increase and our internal accrual wil l also increase for meeting out capex.
Next question is from the line of Bhavesh Patel from Patel Investments.
My question is regarding the recent news of us signing of floating solar power-related technology player. When do we ex pect implementation of this and where initially, if you have any idea?
Recently, we have signed MOU with a Norway company, Ocean Sun. So, both NHPC and Ocean Sun will identify the water bodies where we can go ahead with the floating solar. So as of now, first of all, the job is to identify the water bodies and business opportunities and jointly, Ocean Sun Norway and NHPC is going to develop the floating solar. Presently, we are executing the floating solar o f 88 megawatt in Omkareshwar reservoir through NHDC. Also, we are exploring in Rengali, Odisha, 300 -megawatt floating solar. So last few months back, we went for the tendering. Unfortunately, there was only 1 tender. So again, we are going for the retendering.
Yes. It is in the survey and investigation stage. So, firstly, we will take up those projects which a re easy. And as per our plan, within 2 years, work will start on the ground in case of 3 -4 projects with the capacity of around 5,000 to 6,000 megawatt in the pumped storage space and these projects will be commissioned by FY '30.
All right. And again, we will continue with our dividend distribution policy, which is the current one?
We will continue to pay dividend as per our policy and which is as per DIPAM guidelines only.
Next question is from the line of Prashant from Unived Corporate Research.
Yes. Just wanted to reconfirm with the Subansiri hydroelectric project. When will , as you mentioned, the unit should be commissioned in March’25. So , all the units would be commissioned in 1 month or it will be staggered?
Basically, 3 units of this project will be commissioned in the month of March’25 and balance 5 units will be commissioned one by one by May'26.
May'26. Yes. My question is whether all the 3 units will be commissioned in March?
Yes, because 3 units are going to be ready by March ’25. Basically , some civil work and some hydromechanical work is pending. Otherwise, our 2 units are boxed up already and third unit is also going to be boxed up by October or November ’24. So from electromechanical side, there is no issue in th ese 3 units. Only the balance civil work and HM works is to be completed. So , that's why I'm saying that 3 units will be commissioned at a time in the month of March’25.
But is there a possibility that 1 or 2 units may be commissioned before March or, say, Jan, Feb or something.
Because civil works and HM relate d works is to be completed and these balance works are expected to be completed by February or March’25. That's why there is no possibility of commissioning 1 or 2 units before that.
And secondly, si r, regarding one of the project Bursar, the company has written off also an amount. Is there a possibility of revival from the government side of that project?
For Bursar, we have prepared the DPR and in 2008, that project was declared as a national project by the Ministry of Water Resources and we completed the DPR and submitted the DPR to CEA, CWC and Ministry of Jal Shakti. So what is happening, if all the cost of the Bursar is going to be loaded for the power generation, then the rate of the power generation is coming quite high . So, the second aspect is storage. A portion in the cost is for the storage for irrigation purpose and unfortunately , for command area for the irrigat ion in Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh, the government is not getting the required command area for irrigation. But still we feel that the country should go ahead with that because the storage project is very rare in our country, very scarce and wherever the storage pr oject is available, we should develop it. So once the Government rethinks and the Government directs NHPC, then certainly, we would like to develop Bursar.
Prashant, for your clarity, I want to say that this project will be viable only when the Government will provide grant for the storage component. Otherwise, tariff is coming very high. It is coming in the range of INR25 to INR30 per unit. So , in case Government wants to consider this project from a strategic point of view or any other point of view, only then it will happen. Otherwise, we have already provided the expenditure, which we had incurred in the past.
One more question, sir, is on the Dibang project. When do you expect the work to start at the ground level in that project?
In Dibang project, the work had already started on the ground. The construction of the roads, bridges, culverts in the package awarded to L&T already going on well on the ground and one more package for the construction of powerhous e and other adits, tunnels awarded to Patel and GR Infra, a joint venture and those works are also going on well on the ground . Recently, myself and the Chairman Sahab visited the project. Works are going well and we are getting ready to float the tender for construction of the main concrete dam.
So I just wanted to ask you, is all the land acquisition for the project over?
Total land acquisition has already been done, and we have ordered all the packages except civil works for Dam and 2 small packages of hydromechanical work, which will also happen in the next 3-4 months.
Next follow-up question is from the line of Mohit Kumar from ICICI Securities.
My question is on the EPC tender. Sir, are you looking to aw ard EPC tender for Sawalkot and Dugar this year?
Yes. We are in the process for awarding the work for Sawalkot subject to approval by the CC EA. So, we have already taken up the issue with the J&K Government as well as Ministry of Power for approv al of this project. So far, Dugar is concerned, as you know, Government of Himachal Pradesh has withdrawn all the concessions which were agreed by them and for which , we are in the court. So it depends on outcome of the court case and follow -up of the Hima chal Government to provide concessions. Otherwise, this project may not be viable.
Yes, we are in the process of tendering. Tenders have al ready been quoted for Dugar a nd for Sawalkot, we are preparing packages. So we will be doing the tendering work simultaneously. In case Government approval is received or the court verdict is in our favor, only then we will award but we are preparing simultaneously.
Understood. My second question is on this, on the last year, I think we did a fair amount of tendering on behalf of discom for purchasing renewable power, right? So what is the progress on the PPAs for those tenders? And how much tenders are you looking to award in this fiscal?
We have already signed PPA and PSA for 3,000 megawatt capacity in the REI mode and for 1,400 megawatt, the process is going on. So you can say that we will be able to sign PPA and PSA for 4,400 megawatt against the capacity, which was allocated by the MNRE to the tune of 10,000 megawatt.
10,000 megawatt you have conducted bids for 7,400 megawatt? Is that right?
4,400 megawatt.
Next question is from the line of Rajesh Mangal Agrawal from Rajesh Mangal and Company.
Yes. Sir, I'm a retail investor and many congratulations to you that retail investors have too much faith in NHPC right now. Say in last December quarter, number of r etail investors was 10.32 lakhs a nd it is almost increased 3x. Right now, the retail investors in March ’24 quarters is 33.35 lakhs. Sir, I am going to your website and I think, this March’24 presentation is missing there. Am I correct?
Sorry, you are talking about number of shareholders.
Okay. So March ’24 presentation will be uploaded after this con call. So most likely, you would be getting the presentation by end of the day.
But sir, I think it will be better for future to present the investor presentation beforehand so that investor can go through it. And if at all, anything he want to discuss with you, then he can.
Mr. Rajesh, we have noted your suggestion. It will be done in the future.
Okay. Second question is, sir, what is the expected ROE, return on equity for financial year 2024-25?
You're talking about company level?
Yes, Consolidated level.
At company level, it will be in the range of 10% to 11%.
10% to 11%. Yes. Okay and may I know, sir, what revenue, top line growth we will achieve during 2024-25 by way of the new commissioning of our plants, etc.?
As we have discussed, there is no new capacity being added prior to March’25. So , there will not be any increase in the top line because capacity is the same. Only few megawatt of the solar can be added.
Okay and last question is, sir, we have shown it in our company that the capital work in progress is around INR29,800 Crore. Okay. So can you throw some light on this INR29,800 Crore?
There are 2 big projects in our case. One is Subansiri, 2,000 mega watt and capital work in progress is in the range of INR21,000 Crore plus. And again, Parbati-II, 800 megawatt, in which the expenditure incurred is in the range of INR11,000 Crore plus. So taking these 2 projects, total INR32,000 Crore is coming a nd balance is in the other projects like Dibang and other projects.
Yes. No issue, sir. Sir sorry for the question again. So when we wish to commence this plant, all these big 2 plants?
As we've told, Parbati -II will be commissione d in the month of December’24.And 3 units of Subansiri will be commissioned in March’25 and balance 5 units will be commissioned in phased manner by May '26.
Okay. Okay. And last one, sir, I have missed in the con call about this floating solar power plant and 300 megawatt in Rengali and 88 megawatt in Omkareshwar. So when do you expect to commissioning this project and earning revenue from this?
So far, 88 megawatt Omkareshwar project is concerned, it will be commissioned by October ’24. But so far, 300 megawatt Rengali is there, it is in the re-tendering stage and in case everything goes well, we will be commissioning this project in FY 2026-27.
FY 26-27. Sir, whom do you give this 88 Omkareshwar contract?
We have given contract to Tata.
Tata Power?
Tata Power.
Next question is from the line of Sourin Mehta, individual investor.
Congratulations, sir. I'm very proud that you have given clarity about the Subansiri and Parbati Projects and I wish to know that as Met Department has predicted normal to excess rainfall. Will it affect our company in a positive way?
Mr. Sourin, excess monsoon impacts us in a negative sense and lower monsoon also impact s in a negative sense in respect of our power stations, which are under operations. But moderate monsoon is always welcome. So in case excess monsoon comes, our construction projects gets affected.
Ladies and gentlemen, due to time constraint, we will take the last question from the line of Bhavesh Patel from Patel Investments.
And my question was additional capacity coming up and you answered that in the earlier question. So once a gain, all the very best for the upcoming execution and continue on the great work the company doing, and we are really excited.
I now hand the conference over to Mr. Rupesh Sankhe for closing comments.
Thank you, Goyal sir, thank you for giving us an opportunity to host this call and thank the analysts for joining this call.
Thank you.
Thank you very much. On behalf of Elara Securities Private Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, a nd you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you