NTPC Limited

Quarter ended Mar 2025

2025-05-24 Transcript PDF
Moderator

Thank you very much. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. The first question is from the line of Mohit Kumar from ICICI Securities.

ICICI Securities

Thanks for the presentation uploaded. That’s very helpful. Sir, my first question is you have shared a detail portfolio of RE capacity. We are looking to add around 14 gigawatts on NGEL. Is it possible to also share the PPA status for the NGEL portfolio, broad number where the PPA is there and PPA which you're missing?

Management

We will share it separately.

ICICI Securities

Sure, Sir. My second question is, Sir, on the commissioning target for FY26 and FY27, if you can help on the conventional side and on the RE side separately?

Management

Yes. As far as the expected COD is concerned, first of all, let me take FY26. On a stand-alone basis, we expect a capacity of 2,019 MW. This is coming from our Barh I Unit 3 - 660 MW, and North Karanpura Unit 3 - 660 MW and in renewables we are expecting an addition of 699 MW. So, in stand-alone, it would be 2,019 MW. In JVs and subsidiaries, it will be a total of 9,787 MW. This would comprise of Patratu Unit 1 and 2 - 1,600 MW, THDC Khurja Unit 2- 660 MW; THDC hydro pumped storage project - 1,000 MW. And renewables will be around 6,527 MW. So, all this put together would be 9,787 MW of JV subsidiary capacity. NTPC Group as a whole would tally to 11,806 MW. If I may just give further breakup into the thermal total will be 3,580 MW, Hydro total will be 1,000 MW and renewable total would be 7,226 MW, chiefly coming from the NGEL Group, but there will be some capacities from NTPC also and some from other subsidiaries also. So, the grand total would be 11,806 MW for FY26. Coming to FY27, on a stand-alone basis, it will be 660 MW. This would be coming from TTPS Talcher - 660 MW and as far as the JVs and subsidiaries are concerned, it would be 9,244 MW, comprising of Patratu Unit 3, 800 MW; THDC Hydro, Vishnugad, Pipalkoti will be 444 MW and so, to add the whole stand-alone plus JV subsidiary, the tally would be 9,904 MW, of which thermal will be 1,460 MW, Hydro will be 444 MW and renewable total would be 8,000 MW. So grand total will be 9,904 MW.

ICICI Securities

Understood, sir. Last question, sir, what explains the rise in JVs income during the quarter? The number is slightly on the higher side, INR630-odd crores compared to INR430-odd crores in the last quarter. And in the prior year, it was INR212 crores.

Management

Yes. So INR633 crores is the share of profit of JVs, which will comprise of NTECL will is INR106 crore, BIFPCL will be INR155 crore, HURL will be INR150 crore, APCPL will be INR107 crore, Meja Urja would be INR140 crore, NSPCL would be INR58 crore and there are few other miscellaneous. So that total will be INR633 crore.

Moderator

The next question is from the line of Prateek from ICICI Prudential.

Prateek

Sir, my question is mainly related to the slippage in organic capacity in terms of thermal as well as NGEL projects. So just wanted to ask, since you mentioned to Mohit's question, that this year, we are targeting about 6.5 GW of renewables. So how confident are we that last year, our organic capacity addition was 800-odd MW. And this year, we are almost going to 6.5 GW. So how confident are we in achieving this target?

Management

We are fairly confident. Our assessment is based on all the projects under construction, both organic and inorganic. So, we are pretty sure. And whatever is the slight slip up in the last year, that would add. So, if you remember, our initial assessment for the last year, what we had given was 5 GW for the financial year 2025-26, but we are now improving it to 6.5 GW.

Management

Last year, the major slippages were primarily at our Khavda and Bhadla. Khavda, we had planned for a capacity of 1,255 MW. But this got delayed primarily because of the pooling substation getting delayed a little bit, which got commissioned now lately in the April, and we are going to start bringing the capacities of Khavda this year. We are planning in the Q1 itself around 600 MW. And then progressively, this entire capacity will come. Another slippage was at Bhadla 500 MW, which was because of the delay in the land transfer by Government of Rajasthan. Now that is also been done and the work has started in September 2024, and we will make up for this lost time.

Prateek

Okay. Sure, sir. These were my questions.

Moderator

The next question is from the line of Aniket Mittal from SBI Mutual Fund.

SBI Mutual Fund

I just wanted to understand on the tendering, sir, on the thermal side. I think Meja is yet to be awarded and there were thoughts of Obra and Anpara also getting awarded. So, could you talk about that? Are there any delays that we are seeing on the thermal ordering front or awarding front that we had plans to do another 8 GW of awarding?

Management

Previous year, we have awarded 8 GW. And coming to Meja, we have PPA in place. They have got their environment clearance also. We are trying to work on improving the variable charges of Meja by coal reallocation. Meja is expected to be awarded in the first quarter or by second week of July. Coming to Obra and Anpara, therein the UP government is looking for coal from Northern Coalfields Limited, NCL. So, whereas the coal production at NCL is having some restrictions and they cannot go further. So, they are trying to see what is possible. So Obra-Anpara is getting slightly delayed. Meja we will be awarding by second week of July.

SBI Mutual Fund

Understood, sir. And just on the thermal part, there were media articles also saying that we are looking to increase our thermal capacity, which was supposed to be 26 GW under construction to possibly about 30 GW. Are you thinking on those lines of increasing your thermal targets as well?

Management

See, last year, we told 15 GW if you remember, out of which already 8 GW has been done. This year, we are expecting 4 GW. Then next financial year, we are expecting 4.8 GW and next to next financial year, 1.6 GW. This is the planning of NTPC at this stage.

Management

Of course. For this financial year, 4 GW will be 2.4 GW from Meja and 1.6 GW from Lara Stage-III. For next financial year, we propose 1.6 GW from Patratu, then 800 MW from Jhabua, 800 MW from NSPCL Bhilai, 800 MW from Khurja and another 800 MW from BRBCL Nabinagar Stage-II. Coming to FY28, we have 2 units lined up. One is Talcher and other one is Barauni.

SBI Mutual Fund

Okay. So Obra-Anpara, I assume now is on hold at least for now?

Management

At this instance, it is on hold due to this coal issue. And of course, even water is also an issue there. At this instance, it is on hold. We will see how it moves.

SBI Mutual Fund

Right. Just one more question, if I can squeeze in. Any updates on Mahi Banswara? I think the initial thought was sometime in 2025, we kick start construction. How are things progressing over there?

Management

In Mahi Banswara, we have got the siting clearance from AERB. Environment clearance is also obtained. We are now trying to get the excavation clearance, say, by July end. Once excavation clearance is there, then we go for award for EPC contracts. So right now, the first work contract is expected to be in the month of October 2026 and the project is expected to commence operations from financial year 2032.

SBI Mutual Fund

Understood. I'll join back in the queue for further questions.

Moderator

The next question is from the line of Sumit Kishore from Axis Capital.

Axis Capital

Good evening. Thanks for the opportunity. NTPC is targeting a record capacity addition in FY26. Of the 7,226 MW RE that you are targeting, could you give us a sense of the phaseout of how this capacity would come up in FY26 roughly between Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4? So that we better appreciate your performance through the year. That's my first question.

Management

We are targeting around 7.2 GW as a group in this financial year. In Q1, we are targeting around 1,500 MW, Q2 would be around 1,800 MW. Q3 would be 1,700 MW, and the balance would be around 2,100 MW in quarter 4.

Axis Capital

Okay. The second question is, we really appreciate the number of JVs that you are signing in NGEL. And if I add the aspirations across the multiple states in which you have JVs or the PSUs that you have JVs, it becomes even a bigger target possibly than the 60 GW target that you had originally for 2032 for renewables. So just give us some sense that over the next 2 to 3 years which JVs are likely to see meaningful capex on ground for the aspirations that have been outlined? And if you could also outline the capex or the capital that went into the Ayana acquisition and what sort of valuation metrics that transaction was consummated at?

Management

See, as far as our capacity addition is concerned, we can give you an overall figure for the year, which we have been saying that this year, it would be 7.2 GW and next year onwards, it would be on an average 8 GW. But a one-to-one capacity of each of these JVs, we are not in a position to give right at this stage. This depends on how we progress on the land acquisition and power offtake agreements. So, we will keep you updating on this as we progress on this.

Axis Capital

But at this stage, is my understanding right that bulk of the addition visibility that you have is on the basis of the projects where you have won in NGEL as such not the JVs and at least for the next 2, 2.5 years, meaningful addition in these JVs might not happen?

Management

Yes. So, the JV arrangements are all basically is something which we can look at as a pipeline of prospective capacity addition. But whatever is the figure which we are giving for capacity addition over the next 2 years is based on more definitive awards and arrangements we already have in place.

Axis Capital

Sure. And also on Ayana, if you could mention what the enterprise value of the transaction was and what is the sort of equity capital commitment that NTPC has made in the JV?

Management

Enterprise value was INR19,251 crore. The expected capital expenditure on an attributable basis was INR3,934 crore and so, enterprise value on an attributable basis would be INR23,185 crore. So, we have an EBITDA steady state is INR2,762 crore and that gives you roughly 8.4x of EV/EBITDA.

Management

The acquisition value of this acquisition was INR3,152 crore for each of the partners that is NGEL and ONGC Green.

Axis Capital

This is very, very clear. Just my last clarification is that of your total pipeline for renewables how much is tied up into PPA and how much is awaiting PPA? If you could just break up that number.

Management

We will give you a complete list of that as I had mentioned earlier, separately.

Moderator

The next question is from the line of Girish Achhipalia from Morgan Stanley.

Morgan Stanley

Sir, my first question is on capex outlook for the stand-alone, including coal mining plus the investments that you do in JV and then the group capex, if you can help on that number? And the second question was around the adjusted PAT for quarter 4 for stand-alone.

Management

Well, first of all, let me take 3 years at a time. This is current year and next 2 years. On a stand-alone basis, we expect a capital expenditure of INR26,000 crore in the current year. INR29,209 crore during the next year and INR32,452 crore in the year next, that is during FY28. So, the total for the 3 years would be INR87,661 crore. That gives an average of INR29,220 over the next 3 years. This is as far as the stand-alone is concerned. And if you look at the group capex, this current year, it would be INR55,920 crore. Next year, it would be INR97,363 crore. And the year next, it will further rise to INR112,172 crore. So that would be a whopping INR265,455 crore, giving an average of INR88,485 crore.

Morgan Stanley

Yes, sir. And then if you can help us with the adjusted PAT and the coal mining targets for the next couple of years?

Management

Well, coming to the adjusted PAT, first of all, as for the financial year figure, our reported PAT was INR19,649 crore. So, our adjusted PAT would be INR18,016 crore, which would be compared to the last year's adjusted PAT of INR16,405 crore, it would be addition by 10%. That is INR1,611 crore is the differential, which is a 10% rise above the last year as far as the adjusted PAT is concerned. What was your next question about mining? Can you please repeat?

Morgan Stanley

Sir, captive coal target for next year and year after?

Management

Captive coal production for current year was 45 million metric tons, which would further rise to 50 million, 56 million and 60 million over the next 3 years. So, we envisage an average of 7% increase year-on-year.

Morgan Stanley

Sir, last question was on subsidiary profit. If you can help us with the breakup for year ending FY25?

Management

See, our profit of subsidiary is INR4,139 crore and the share of profit of the JVs is INR2,214 crore, but more detailing the subsidiary profits, it would be INR731 crore from THDC, NTPC Green offering INR475 crore, NVVN is INR206 crore. NEEPCO is contributing INR585 crore. RGPPL is INR1,751 crore, BRBCL is INR389 crore and others are INR2 crore. So, total would be INR4,139 crore. This is INR242 crore higher than the last year's figure of INR3,897 crore.

Moderator

The next question is from the line of Puneet Gulati from HSBC.

Sir, if you can also comment on what is the status of land and transmission connectivity for the projects that you intend to execute over next 3 years?

Management

This is as far as renewable is concerned, or in general.

Management

We have tied up almost 6 GW of land bank and another 8 GW is in the pipeline. And likewise, we have the connectivity also for the entire capacity that we have tied up.

So, for FY26, it is safe to assume that you have land and connectivity in place?

Management

Yes, for FY26, the projects that we are targeting are all having the land as well as the connectivity.

Management

FY27 also bulk of it is already contracted and is awarded and we are also having the connectivity for these projects. So, for FY26 & FY27, we are fairly confident on the connectivity.

But you said 6 GW for FY26, sir, so is the total land connectivity, right, which is what your target is for FY26?

Management

No, no. What I told is that 6 GW of land and connectivity is already there with us, which we have already contracted. Apart from that, the projects which we have won through TBCB will feature on this. And the projects that are in the pipeline for those projects, we have already put in advance connectivity applications, which have also been granted to us.

And if you can also give a little more colour on how difficult or easy has the process become now in terms of availability of land and connectivity? Some bit of qualitative colour would be very helpful.

Management

I think, connectivity is definitely going to be a challenge in the near future. The bulk of the connectivity are being discussed with CTU and are going to be then available in FY30. And as the renewable is growing, land is also becoming a problem, but we are going aggressively with these states as well as with our capacity building on the land side.

Management

So, idea of tying up with different states on big capacity is precisely because state governments are in a better position to arrange for the land. So that brings us a lot of advantage in terms of all these projects, all these JVs, presently, the land arrangement is in advanced stage. So, that would give us a lot of comfort for taking up faster execution.

Okay. And most of the projects that you will commission will be CTU-based projects, right, for FY26 and FY27?

Management

Yes, most of them.

Understood. That's very helpful. All the best to you.

Moderator

The next question is from the line of Arihant from Bowhead India Fund.

Arihant

First, I wanted to know what was the under-recovery number for this quarter? And can you also help with the adjusted consol PAT for Q4 and for full year?

Management

See, the under recovery or in other words the disincentive would be INR464 crore for the year as a whole. And for Q4, it was positive recovery of INR4 crore. What was your next question?

Arihant

Sir, consolidated PAT. The adjusted consolidated PAT number, sir.

Management

Yes. You want it for Q4?

Arihant

The full year adjusted consolidated PAT.

Management

Yes. See, the adjusted profit for Q4 was INR5,231 crore which compares to INR4,108 crore PAT during last year.

Arihant

Okay. This is the adjusted consol PAT, right, sir?

Management

Adjusted PAT, which is a 27% year-on-year growth from INR4,108 crore to INR5,231 crore.

Arihant

Okay. Sir. And another question was regarding the Chhabra Plant, the thermal power plant which we acquired. Sir, just wanted to know status of that and is the acquisition being completed on that end?

Management

We have not acquired Chhabra, we are in the stage of arriving at a solution for that. There are still some discussions underway as regards the modalities and also the coal arrangements. So, we will update you at the appropriate time on this.

Moderator

We'll take up the next question. The next question is from the line of Atul Tiwari from JPMorgan.

JPMorgan

Sir, for Mahi Banswara project, what is the status of PPA and what will be the approximate capex?

Management

The estimated cost of this Mahi Banswara would be INR18 crore per MW and so that would be a total of INR50,400 crore estimated. Execution time would be 6 years and the expected tariff is tentatively between INR7.5 to INR8.5 per kWh.

JPMorgan

And sir, PPA has been signed here or will be signed by the time you are awarded by November?

Management

See, PPA has not been signed, but there are some consenting states, which has given an in-principle consent, that is Rajasthan 1,400 MW; Gujarat, 510 MW; Chhattisgarh 300 MW; and Andhra Pradesh 560 MW.

Moderator

Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question for our day. I would now like to hand the conference over to the management for closing comments.

Management

Well, on behalf of the NTPC management and NGEL management, I would like to thank all of you for your active participation and raising your pertinent queries and questions. Thank you so much. Some of the points which we mentioned, we can supplement this detail through our investor department. Thank you.

Moderator

On behalf of Nuvama Institutional Equities Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines. ***************************************

Note

This transcript has been edited for readability and does not purport to be a verbatim record of the proceedings.