NTPC Limited analyst Q&A

Okay, sir. So, thank you very much. Participants, we will now begin with the question-and-answer session. The first question is from the line of Mohit Kumar from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.

Yes. Good evening, sir and thank you for the opportunity. My first question is on the capacity addition target. Are you on track to meet the capacity target of 11.8 GW in FY26 or do you think there could be some miss?

Yes, very much. We are quite geared up. In fact, for FY26, we have a target of 2019 MW on a standalone basis and 7825 MW for JVs and subsidiaries, both totaling to 9844 MW. For the next financial year, the figure is 9600 MW and for FY28, it would be 10564 MW. So, we have a clear visibility on the CODs over the next three years.

Is it possible to break the FY28 number between conventional and RE?

The thermal would be 2120 MW, hydro would be 444 MW, and renewable would be 8000 MW totaling to 10564 MW.

Understood. The second question is, what is the status of Meja Phase 2 project? Is it expected to take off in near-term or is it delayed?

Meja Phase 2, all clearances are in place. Only the State Government of UP approval is required. It is a matter of time, expected to take place within two months. We will be starting the project work, say, from 1st of January.

Understood. My last question, sir, is the EESL losses. How long will the EESL losses continue in your opinion, and it will stop impacting our P&L?

Understood. So, does it mean the losses will continue in FY26 for the entire fiscal?

The losses will continue till FY26, yes.

Understood. Understood.

But I can emphasize that all the promoters are very serious about this matter and they are taking various actions for the same.

Understood. Understood.

The next question is from the line of Puneet Gulati from HSBC.

Yes. My question is on the battery side. You talked about 5000 MW of battery with thermal projects and 5020 MW with solar. Can you also elaborate on the timeline of execution for these projects?

Expected completion within three years from our date of award.

And when is the date of award likely to be?

Already we have tendered 2.3 GW.

Okay.

2.9 GW will come up in say December. So, we are expecting the award in the current financial year itself.

Okay. This financial year and then within three years.

Yes.

And fair to assume it is all regulated return, right?

5 GW is fully regulated.

And the 5020 MW with existing solar, that also?

No. That is not regulated.

That is not regulated. Okay.

Yes. Okay. So, you talked about four parts, right? One was through TBCB 1990 MW, that is TBCB then you talked about 1520 MW of co-location, right? That is also regulated?

No. 5000 MW will be regulated. Located at NTPC coal plants, 5000 MW will be regulated.

Okay. That's the only one regulated. Also, if you can just remind us of what balance capacity commissioning is for FY26, how much do you still have to do, both on thermal side and renewable side?

The balance in thermal is 800 MW.

Okay.

And in renewable it is 4 GW, you can say approximately.

4 GW in the second half. Okay. That's all from my side.

The next question is from the line of Atul Tiwari from JP Morgan.

Yes, sir. Sir, could you shed some light on plans of ordering new coal-based generation capacity in the rest of FY26, FY27 and FY28?

You want the ordering? New ordering?

The ordering of new coal-based generation plants.

Okay. In this financial year, another 1.6 GW is expected to be awarded. Then coming to next financial year, we are planning 2.4 GW. Then beyond that we have another 800 MW. Now we may go for 1.6 GW.

Okay. And for the nuclear power project at Mahi Banswara, what is the configuration and how much is the total capex?

For Mahi Banswara, the cost will be around ₹20 crore per MW. The date of completion will be six years from first pour of concrete. That will be from December 2026 to December 2032, it will be in the 2032-33. The total capex is around ₹50,000 crore.

₹50,000 crore. Okay. And when will you start placing the orders now?

Okay. And sir, when will the award of contracts start for the project?

See, the excavation contract is already awarded for Unit 1 and 2. And the free issue materials for this nuclear are already being done by NPCIL. The balance package of nuclear island and the TG package is expected to be awarded in this financial year.

And sir, does it depend on the passage of Civil Nuclear Liability Bill (CLNB) in the parliament or you are not impacted by that?

This project has no effect on that. That CLNB Act will help us to move further in the other technology, PWR technology.

Okay. And you have all other approvals, environmental clearance and everything else.

Yes.

Okay. Good to know.

The next question is from the line of Apoorva Bahadur from IIFL Capital.

Hi, sir. Thank you for the opportunity. I hope I am audible.

Yes. Please go ahead.

Sir, I wanted to get some sense on NTPC Green capacity addition. I can see the capital expenditure which you have incurred in the first half is around ₹6,000 crore.

Yes.

Last year it was ₹7,000 crore. Sir, can you let us know, like, how much capital expenditure for the projects we are about to commission this year and maybe next year has not been incurred and how much we will have to incur in the second half?

In the financial year 2025-26, we are going to incur a capex of around ₹30,000 crore, which will be financed through debt and equity. That is going to be the level of capex that is going to come in this financial year. which in the next financial year will further increase to around ₹45,000 crore to ₹46,000 crore.

At NTPC Green level?

Yes. This is at the NTPC Green level.

Yes. Because our significant capacity addition is planned in the H2. So, therefore, this level of capex will come in the second half.

Understood, sir. Very useful. Sir, also, I will probably go back to the BESS investment that we have lined up. I understand that for the co-located BESS is cost plus. Can you help us understand like how should we think about the BESS which will be co-located with the renewable projects? What sort of returns can we expect and what's the tariff on pre-tie-up being done?

You see, the co-located BESS are primarily being done with an intent to use the solar capacity during the peak hours in the evening. So, that is expected to give us a significant boost in our revenue. But the exact numbers would come up only once we are able to firm up the tie-ups, because unlike the 5 GW which is on coal tie-ups are not yet finalized. So, we are in the process of acquiring the land nearby, the connectivity we are having, and the exact numbers in the return on equity would be known only after that.

Okay. So, we won't be selling it on merchant basis. We'll have firm tie-up for it.

No. See, we are going ahead with the projects. However, the tie-up will keep on happening as and when the opportunity arises. But the intent is to start the work and move ahead with the projects initially on the merchant basis.

Understood, sir. Sir, last bookkeeping question, if you can help me with the adjusted consolidated PAT for the quarter. I am sorry, I think I missed that number.

Adjusted consolidated PAT. Yes. The adjusted consolidated PAT for Q2 FY26 is ₹5,069 crore which I mentioned in my opening statement also.

Yes, sir. Thank you so much. All the best.

Thank you.

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Satyadeep Jain from Ambit Capital. Please go ahead.

Hi. Thank you. Just a follow-up on BESS co-located at thermal. Just wanted to check this 5 GW that you are adding, how do you decide where to co-locate it? Is it based on the cost of the plant, pithead, non-pithead? And the equity will be after VGF, I'm guessing, right? So, after the VGF, whatever equity is, you look at regulated equity. I just wanted to understand the model there.

The choice of location would be decided based on what is the variable cost over there. Ultimately, the higher variable cost is more likely to have a backing down. But at the same time, we will be judiciously choosing the plants where after you have stored it, the peak hours tariff will be viable. So, there will be a balancing that will be done between these. And as far as your question about VGF is concerned, net of VGF, we will go for a debt equity model.

Okay. Perfect. And the curtailment, the PLF that was down, you mentioned because of grid curtailment and all.

Yes.

Did it lead to higher O&M? Just trying to understand as we see this going forward, did it impact on some O&M expense, some other expense? I can see the PLF incentive is down, but anything on the operations part?

No, no. It does not have a direct correlation like that. Of course, if there is a backing down, the overall tariff is likely to go up because your fixed costs will be distributed over a lesser number of units in that sense. But otherwise, the operation and maintenance will not have that much sensitivity.

Okay. And on NTPC Green, just wanted to check on the pipeline. Around 9 GW, the pipeline which is not signed PPA. So, how do you look at converting? There is that Green Hydrogen, Greenko, Kakinada project. There are some other projects also. So, what visibility are you getting on conversion? And how do you look at adding maybe to this pipeline? And also, this RE-RTC project that Ayana has, including some with Hindalco. Any visibility on when can you look at commissioning some of these projects?

So, answering the first part, the last part of the question that is of Ayana. Ayana is progressing steadily with its work for the RE-RTC, and those projects are going to be commissioned almost by the end of this year. So, that is not a challenge at all. For the other, what was the first part you asked? Yes, for the balance PPA, which we have not yet been done, we are judiciously approaching all the TBCB tenders which are coming up. And because the capacity addition is going on in parallel, we are hopeful that we will be able to get into good PPAs through the TBCB route and the C&I customers also we have been approaching. So, that challenge would be addressed that way.

Okay. Thank you so much.

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Sumit Kishore from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.

On NGEL, could you give us the full year target for FY26, 27 and 28 for RE capacity addition? And how much of that is going to be at the JV level? That is my first question.

How much of this capacity are you planning to add at the JV level? I mean, how much will not get consolidated line by line in the P&L?

1500 MW would not get consolidated.

Every year for the next 3 years?

No, this is for the current financial year.

Okay. And, sir, second question is, you spoke about the CERC Suo-Moto order. Could you please explain the contours of it? And how does it impact the business? That was not very clear in your opening remarks.

Yes. In fact, there were some constraints that NTPC or, for that matter, the central generators have been facing. While we had an obligation to supply power, there was no obligation on the part of the power off taker, the discoms, to give us a feasible schedule. Because there is always a constraint of ramping up. Primarily, the generation units have to run on a feasible schedule with a technical minimum. But the earlier dispensation was that the DISCOMs were not obliged to give a technical minimum schedule. At the same time, during the peak hours, the generator was obligated to keep its plant ready. So, there was a clear dichotomy over which was working to them, which was detrimental to us. But based on the policy advocacy and follow-up, now this Suo-Moto order has ameliorated that situation for us. And we will be getting a feasible schedule so that a certain amount of technical minimum operation is assured to us. So, we can ramp up to fulfill the peak hours requirement. Is that clear to you?

Very clear. You mentioned 244 GW of capacity target, that was 2047?

2037.

2037. Okay. So, that is a substantial amount of capacity you are planning to add between 2032 to 2037.

Yes.

Broadly, how much of this are you planning on thermal, nuclear and RE, if you can give a broad breakup, that would be fine.

Thermal would be 13 GW between 2032 to 2037. And I think hydro would be close to 0.3 GW only. And renewable, we are targeting a substantial amount, almost double, close to 130 to 140 GW. So, that is 55 to 60 GW incremental. And the nuclear would be around 2.1 GW. So, that would be the broad breakup.

Thank you so much and wish you all the best.

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Rajesh Majumdar from B&K. Please go ahead.

Yes, good evening, sir. You have a capacity under construction in thermal of 17 GW and hydro of 2 GW. Can you give us the execution schedule for this over the next few years, how it will be planned?

We have under construction capacity of around 33 GW. Broadly, the breakup is 17.3 GW is from coal, hydro is 2.18 GW and RE 13.9 GW. We can give you a COD guidance of this, which we had already, at the cost of repetition, let me say, that broadly is 6 GW during the current year and 8 GW each in the next two years.

That is for renewables, you said. I am talking about thermal and hydro.

Thermal and hydro. Thermal is 2780 MW during the current year, 1600 MW in the next year and 2120 MW during FY28. As far as hydro is concerned, it is 1 GW during the current year. Next year, there won't be any COD achievement, but next year it will be 444 MW or 0.44 GW.

And could you give us some color on any fresh thermal bidding that you're doing because we've seen some PPAs getting signed between states with Adani and JSW respectively. So, any endeavor on this front?

No, we don't intend participating in any tariff-based competition.

Sir, the last question is that regulated equity as of 30 September is ₹1,16,000 crore, what is the targeted regulated equity as of FY28?

The same can be worked out based on CODs and the debt equity of that.

Sure. Thank you

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Nidhi Shah from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.

Thank you so much for taking my question. Sir, in the opening comments, you mentioned that the tariff will go down due to curtailment. My question is specifically on RE. Have we seen curtailment at the RE level as well? And is the lower CUF also a result of the extended monsoon?

My second question is on the capacity addition for RE. So, the RE capacity addition has been slightly muted in first half and we have also reduced our target for the year. What are some of the hindrances that we are facing in doing the installation of these projects and getting the commissioning done?

If you see in the first quarter, we added around 900 MW and in the second quarter, we added around 600 MW. So, the second quarter, typically being in the monsoon season is a muted season as far as capacity addition is concerned. The bulk of our capacity is in the balance period of that is in the second half is going to come from the regions of Bhuj and Khavda plus Rajasthan. So, there is no significant impediment as of now on the solar side. However, if you saw typically all wind projects, including ours, do face some ROW challenges in the movement of heavy vehicles. So, that could be one reason probably for a slight slippage of the wind capacity that we have been targeting.

My last question would be on the new project that you will be awarding. Would you be awarding them on an EPC basis or will you be breaking the packages down into BTG, BOP? And you also mentioned that there are these 1.6 GW of projects that are going to be awarded in FY26. Does this include Meja phase 2 or has that already been awarded?

Meja we have already issued LNTP on EPC basis to BHEL. So, there is no question of packaging in Meja. Coming to this 1.6 GW, it is for Lara Stage 3. That will be predominantly on packaging.

Okay. Thank you.

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Akash Mehta from Canara HSBC Life Insurance. Please go ahead.

Hi, sir. So, just continuing on the capacity addition front, on NGEL, we have added about 1.5 GW, as you said 900 MW in the first quarter and 600 MW in the second quarter. So, how many of projects were to get commissioned during the first half in terms of the company's target or commissioning dates?

Yes. In the first quarter we exceeded what we had targeted for i.e. around 850 MW. We did more than that i.e. around 900 MW. However, in the second quarter there is a slippage, which is primarily because of the rains. We were targeting another 300 to 400 MW more in Khavda, which got slipped, which we will make it up in the second half.

I can give you physical numbers, but again in RE business, quarter-on-quarter, there could be movement here and there slightly. Traditionally in the third quarter and the fourth quarter because it is the fair weather season everywhere, so, we are targeting around 2 GW in the third quarter and another 1.7 GW in the fourth quarter. That is our target currently at hand. And it is going to also come, as I told, from both, this will be both NGEL standalone, that means NGEL group along with the ONGPL, i.e. Ayana.

Okay, sure. That's quite helpful. Yes, thanks a lot.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will take this as the last question. That was the last question. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Bharanidhar Vijayakumar from Avendus Spark for closing comments. Over to you, sir.

Yes, sure. On behalf of Avendus Spark, I thank NTPC management for giving us this opportunity to host this call. I will hand over the call now to NTPC management for closing remarks, if any.

Yes, thank you. On behalf of the management of both NTPC and NGEL, I thank each and every participant in this earnings call for their very relevant queries and fruitful interaction. Thank you so much.

Thank you, sir. On behalf of Avendus Spark, that concludes this conference. Thank you all for joining us and you may now disconnect your lines.

This transcript has been edited for readability and does not purport to be a verbatim record of the proceedings.