NTPC Limited

Quarter ended Sep 2023

2023-10-28 Transcript PDF
Moderator

Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. The first question is from the line of Mohit Kumar from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.

ICICI Securities

My first question is on the thermal coal pipeline. You just mentioned that you are looking to award 11.2 GW (Gigawatt). How much is coming in standalone and how much you are looking to award in this fiscal and if you can name those power plants it will be very helpful.

Management

Out of the total 11.2 GW that is planned, 50% would be coming from NTPC standalone and the remaining 50% would be through our joint venture and these would be tendered out progressively over the next 12 months.

Management

Lara has already been awarded.

ICICI Securities

Understood Sir. My second question is H1 was slightly muted in terms of renewable bidding, how do you see the renewable bidding pipeline in H2?

Management

As far as the bidding pipeline , as directed by the Government of India , is concerned, I think about 25 GW have already been announced by the agencies including about 5 GW from NTPC, and the target is that all the 50 GW bid completion would be done by the end of March. So that is how the things stand because now various guidelines i.e., the bid document guidelines, the pooling guidelines and all of those have been issued.

ICICI Securities

Understood Sir. My last question Sir what was the regulated equity at the end of H1 for the standalone and consolidated?

Management

The regulated equity at the end of last quarter was ₹81,498 crore on standalone basis. On consolidated basis it is ₹98,050 crore.

ICICI Securities

Understood, Sir thank you and all the best, Sir.

Moderator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Apoorva Bahadur from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Goldman Sachs

Hi Sir thank you for the opportunity. So , can you share the fixed cost under recovery figures for Q2?

Management

The fixed cost under recovery for Q2 is ₹381 crore.

Goldman Sachs

I wanted to understand about the coal inventory at power plants. There has been some tightness as per the data. How do you see the rest of the year panning out especially for our non-pithead power plants?

Management

Right now, the coal stock is around 8.5 days at NTPC stations. Although coal stock is less in non -pithead stations , coal stocks should increase from now onwards. So yes, it is a little tight, but I would expect the coal stocks to pick up from end of this month onwards.

Goldman Sachs

The scheduled maintenance for all our coal plants has been done or something is due in Q3 as well.

Management

Something will be due in Q3 and Q4 also because we have a lot of units. Except for the government directive regarding not to take units under overhauling in the month of April till mid of May, we have started taking overhaul every month and it is going on.

Goldman Sachs

Okay Sir so by the end of the year, the total fixed cost under recovery should be?

Management

It should be near around ₹200 crore.

Moderator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Nikhil Nigania from Alliance Bernstein. Please go ahead, sir.

Alliance Bernstein

Thank you for taking my question. My question is on the renewable side. Wanted to understand if there is any update on the investment envisaged in the renewable business and plans to list the renewable business separately?

Management

You want the projected investment in the renewable.

Alliance Bernstein

No, Sir. Sir there was a plan to get separate investor into the renewable portfolio and then list the renewable business separately as an entity, if there is any update on that.

Management

See, we have broadly some plans for unlocking some value either by way of a stake sale or an IPO route . However, we are working towards that but as you know that we have a pipeline of renewable projects. 3.3 GW is already operational, 7.2 GW is under construction and another 11 GW is under different stages. So, we will be working on that and by year and a half or two years there should be a substantial capacity on ground, but when we reach a certain critical mass, we will time it. So, right now we are working towards that, but we will be exploring the market, looking at the conditions and deciding on the timing.

Alliance Bernstein

Got it. Understood Sir. Thank you. Sir, the second question I had was on storage. There is a lot of news on plans to set up pump storage and the government is keen as well wanted to under stand if there is any update on the storage front is there a tender out by NTPC as well on storage. So, any update you can share on plans on pump storage or otherwise?

Management

On the pump storage, I will give you a snapshot. Government of India last ye ar identified NTPC as possible developer of 11550 MW PSP across Maharashtra, Andhra, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka subject to government of that particular state agreeing. Out of that 11550 MW, we have gone into the PFR stage and also gone for acceptance of some of the units. So, we are now targeting half of that, 5300 MW. Meanwhile, we have self-identified another 8500 MW of capacity in Gujarat, Himachal, Meghalaya, Chhattisgarh and Uttar Pradesh and feasible capacity is 100% of that. So , if we add together t oday, we have around 14 000 MW of pump storage capacity ready to be signed with the state governments at different stages and we will immediately start building up.

Alliance Bernstein

That is helpful Sir. Sir any visibility on timeline, how long does this ta ke when there will be approvals and then construction. So how long would we start seeing on ground progress on this tentatively?

Management

It typically takes two to three years for the initial work. Because like any hydro, there are a lot of studies to be carried out and the construction time can be 3.5 to 4.5 years depending on the site and depending on the utility of f river or on the river etc. So, from today, if you take the most conservative view, it will be on the order of say 7 to 8 years and if it is most optimistic, it can be up to six years. That is the position.

Alliance Bernstein

Understood Sir. Very helpful, Sir. Thank you, Sir. I will join back the queue.

Moderator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Abhishek Maheshwari from Sky Ridge Wealth Management. Thank you so much.

Abhishek

Thank you for the opportunity. Sir only one question. It is regarding understanding your borrowing strategy. So , as we understand it, currently you are generating more than enough cash to suff iciently pay off all your capex expenses and I understand that all the power projects are formulated on the basis of a mix of debt and equity but is it necessary for you to take the debt to finance a project or can you finance it through your internal accruals also? So just wanted to understand do you have a planned peak debt for your books or is it something that will keep coming on as you take new projects?

Management

Right now, the company’s debt equity ratio is very comfortable and as long as we keep i nvesting on thermal side which is still a regulated business on a cost plus basis it benefits us to put 30% permissible equity over there because it will fetch us 15.5% returns, but as far as other business, non-regulated business is concerned that will depend on the resource position. Generally, on the renewable side we go for 80:20 combination . But in a regulated business, even if you put more equity, it will be treated as a notional debt, and you will be getting only the weighted average rate of borrowings. So, it does not pay you to put more equity into the regulated business.

Abhishek

I was majorly talking about renewables only because since bulk of your capex is going to go into renewables does it make sense to finance your renewable projects through your own internal accruals only rather than relying on debt because you are getting enough cash as it is, right and you're not looking at regulated businesses going ahead right.

Management

We will have a judicious mix of debt equity. Nobody will ever fina nce the projects only through equity because we have other commitments also, we have other subsidiaries, JVs also. We will be looking at new businesses. So, from that point of view, whatever is the healthy mix, we will go for a healthy debt equity ratio.

Abhishek

Okay Sir. Thank you. I will get back to the queue right now for any follow-ups.

Moderator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Subhadip Mitra from Nuvama. Please go ahead. Subhadip Mitra: Good evening and thank you for the opportunity. I got disconnected from the call earlier so if you have already answered this could you help us with the adjusted PAT number both for standalone and consolidated for the quarter?

Management

The adjusted PAT for Q2 FY24 is ₹3,497 crore which was ₹3,601 crore in the corresponding period of last year. Subhadip Mitra: Secondly with regard to the ordering of the thermal plants which are currently in the pipeline, you know post L ara if you can help us with the schedule of how much and which projects you anticipate to ordered out over the next six to eight months or a year?

Management

Singrauli 1600 MW and Sipat 800 MW. Singrauli by December 2023 and Sipat by February 2024. In next phase, Darlipalli 800 MW will come in June 2024 and Meja 2400 MW will come in September 2024. We have another 5600 MW capacity lined up. Telangana Phase-II 2400 MW, Obra Expansion 1600 MW that will be done by NTPC through Meja Urja Nigam Limited our JV with UP and Anapara another 1600 MW expansion, will also be done through our JV with UP, i.e., Meja Urja Nigam Limited . These will be done progressively in FY25 and definitely by H1 of FY26, that is our target. Subhadip Mitra: Okay, perfect, that is very helpful. Lastly on the renewable side given that we have been able to expand our portfolio so well to 20 GW over the last few months is there any target of what kind of numbers you would like to reach in terms of closing portfolio let us say by end of this fiscal or next year.

Management

Presently we have 3.3 GW commissioned capacity. By FY26, we are expecting to have 15 GW. We have a long term target of 60 GW by the end of FY32. Subhadip Mitra: I understand and in terms of growing the portfolio beyond the 20 GW would you have any rough target let us say by end of FY24 or FY25 that you are anticipating this 20 GW to maybe grow to let us say 30 GW by end of next year or something like that.

Management

You already know there is a bidding pipeline of close to 50 GW going to happen every year. So, we will obviously try to win some bids there. We're also talking to a couple of C&I guys, but obviously we cannot give you a number right now. Subhadip Mitra: Understood Sir, that answers my question. Thank you so much.

Nikhil Abhyankar

Thank you, Sir. Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, my first question is why was our under recovery high in Q2 and are there any specific reasons for it?

Management

The under recovery is high in Q2 because we have taken overhauls, and these are overhauls taken during this season. So therefore, this under recovery is hi gh, going forward by end of the year we will be making up this under recovery and we will have only around ₹200 crore under recovery.

Nikhil Abhyankar

Recently we had a new grid code so what are your views on that, and will it lead to some kind of an opportunity to sell on power exchanges?

Management

The new grid code, yes, there are opportunities for us to sell on the exchange and we are doing that but there are also some concerns on the grid code which we have communicated to the regulator and that is a continuous dialogue that we are having with the regulator on this.

Nikhil Abhyankar

Okay and our renewable capacity addition for Q2 was almost nil if I am not wrong Sir. And so , are we facing any difficulty in execution and also you mentioned that we have got almost a lock down capacity of 20 GW and our target for FY26 is 15 GW, so almost around 5 GW will not be commissioned even in next two years. So, can you throw some light on that?

Management

So yes, in Q2 we did not do anything because various clearances like sourcing of modules from outside India and all we got only towards the end of Q1. Regarding the 20 GW, which is already in the pipeline, so our broad aim is to do around 5 GW every year.

Nikhil Abhyankar

Thank you. That is all from me.

Moderator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Gaurav Lohia from Bowhead India Fund. Please go ahead.

Bowhead India Fund

Sir, just wanted to check what is the adjusted PAT for Q2 FY24?

Management

Adjusted PAT for Q2 on a standalone basis is ₹3,497 crore.

Management

In Q1 it was ₹3,794 crore.

Bowhead India Fund

Sir, in the past consolidated PAT as percentage of Consolidated PAT was in the range of 100% to 105% but in the last two quarters, it has been almost 20% higher than the standalone PAT even if we include the portfolio that you have transferred to the subsidiary, the renewable portfolio it extends only 4 to 5% kind of PAT difference, right but what is the delta coming here Sir?

Management

Share of profit from subsidiaries has been close to ₹250 crore variation and share of profit of joint ventures through equity method, we have a differential of ₹961 crore. So, this adds to around ₹1,200 crore variation. Another factor is that our BIFPCL was not there last year, so the COD was effective from 23 rd December 2022, which has also contributed to the higher results.

Bowhead India Fund

Sir, going forward, this difference would remain at the same level around 20% or it would come down because of let us say reduction in JV profit or subsidiaries profit?

Management

It should be in the range of 15 to 20%.

Bowhead India Fund

Understood Sir and Sir what was the capex for the first half, Sir? First half at the group level.

Management

At the group level, first half we are around ₹13,204 crore and target is ₹28,373 crore.

Bowhead India Fund

Understood Sir. I think in the Q1 analyst meet we had said ₹27,000 crore for FY24, right? So, we have changed it to ₹28,000 crore.

Management

Yes, we keep on going upwards only and that is a growing company.

Bowhead India Fund

So, could you please give us the revised target for FY25 and FY26 also if there has been a change for those years as well?

Management

Next financial year we will be coming out before the budget because that is obligatory on a government company. We are working on it now and our capex target for next year will be remaining almost on the same range, but after that , that will also zoom further.

Bowhead India Fund

Understood, Sir. Just last question, Sir. Just to be clear again, Sir this difference between consolidated PAT and standalone PAT will remain during FY25 as well right, 15 to 20% kind of number.

Management

That is our estimate.

Bowhead India Fund

Understood, Sir. I understand that but as of now you expect this to continue, right as things stands. Understood, thanks a lot.

Moderator

The next question is from the line of Rajesh Majumdar from B&K Securities. Please go ahead.

B&K Securities

Yes Sir. So, I had a couple of questions. What is the status of pump hydro projects which is going on right now at THDC, which was supposed to be commissioned this year and what is the expected profitability from that project?

Management

THDC pump hydro project is 1000 MW. There are some last moment surprises at the tail-end region and now the issues have been settled and we expect pump storage first unit to come on stream by January or latest by February and then progressively in three months’ time it will come.

B&K Securities

Okay and this is a regulated return, right, this particular project?

Management

Yes, it is cost plus only.

B&K Securities

Okay and secondly Sir, could you give us the pipeline for the capacity addition for thermal for the balance part of the year , FY25 and FY26, that is it from my side.

Management

In this year, we have already achieved 1460 MW and we will further achieve 1480 MW, and this is what I am talking is all coal and to be achieved includes North Karanpura Unit-2 660 MW, Telangana Unit-2 800 MW, and Durgapur 20 MW. For next financial ye ar we have lined up 5240 MW capacity addition, which includes Barh Unit-3, North Karanpura Unit-3, Patratu two Units 1600 MW and then THDC Khurja both the units 1320 MW, and THDC PSP although I am expecting one unit to be commissioned in this fiscal year, but in any case, by FY25, the entire 1000 MW will be commissioned that makes it 5240 MW.

Management

FY26 is going to be lean year because all the capacity that we are now awarding will start getting commissioned from FY27 onwards. In FY26 it will be roughly 1764 MW. This will include THDC Pipalkoti 444 MW and Patratu the last unit of 800 MW and hopefully Tapovan Vishnugad 520 MW.

B&K Securities

Right Sir, that is helpful. Thank you so much.

Moderator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Dhruv Muchhal from HDFC AMC. Please go ahead.

Yes Sir. Thank you so much. Sir you mentioned that you have 14 GW of pump hydro project now assuming that you get the financial closure done and the ET and FT cleared over a period of time how many of these projects do you have go ahead from the state government to start constructing if all these procedures are done already if you have approvals from the state government.

Management

I told you that out of this 14000 MW, roughly 6000 MW has been identified by Government of India and among that we have already discussed with Tamil Nadu, which is going for the cabinet appr oval now once it is approved, we will sign the agreement with them. The rest of the projects are roughly 8000 MW. These are at various stages of identification. Like in Himachal there are two projects, 1200 MW each, which is Koldam-I and Koldam-II PSP. These are very easy projects and only Himachal government should agree to award it to us. There are some issues going on regarding water safety which has been going so there are some delay on that front, but we expect to get it soon. Karnataka we are negotiating at the last stage for Netravati, and we are also discussing for some more projects with Karnataka. Maharashtra, we have already identified, and we are discussing with them around 800 MW immediately and maybe another 2000 MW going forward. Then we are a lso discussing with Meghalaya. We have signed an MOU for around 3100 MW, but we are in the process of preparing the PFR first. Chhattisgarh 1200 MW we are discussing for joint venture route and Madhya Pradesh 800 MW has been identified and Gujarat 1000 MW. These are at the different stages of pre -feasibility report, and we have sounded the state governments and while some of the state governments like Meghalaya signed an MOU. Rest of the cases, except Gujarat where Gujarat has evinced interest that is why we moved in. So, you can say 4100 MW is also agreed de facto. Rest are at the different stages of negotiation.

Got it Sir. This is helpful, Sir. Sir , just on renewables you mentioned that there are 9 to 11 gigawatt of projects which are under construction. Sir just to clarify, which means that you have already awarded the EPC contract and probably some set of modules or what stage are they?

Management

Let me clarify that it about 3.3 GW is already operational and another 7 GW is under construction so that adds up to 10 if that is what you are referring to.

No, I am saying when you refer to under construction of what 7 odd GW.

Management

So, when we say under construction so we have already cleared the EPC award or the balance award so what is being executed on the ground.

Got it so that means at least this much would be commissioned over the next 18 months or 24 months closer to EPC.

Management

Yes, whenever we have started the work, the target is to complete it by max 24 months if not earlier.

Sir one more question was on the thermal addition. Now we are seeing some tightness in the power markets and probably government is also pushing a lot. Sir is there any scope what we see from current ordering is that it takes about four to five years to ex ecute these projects, new thermal projects, even they are Brownfield yet? Is there any scope to quicken this probably I am not sure three and half years, four years or whatever is there any scope to do that or what do you think is four or five years is the best possible way that can be done?

Management

As an optimist project manager I am saying it is there, the scope is always there, and we will try everything to do it. But in Indian context, I will tell you, there are some basic problems that we face. Fir st of all, the first two years when we are doing lots of civil the four months of rainy season completely takes away the eight months from the schedule. So even if I do it in four years, I have effectively doing it in 40 months that you have to understand. Secondly some of the projects depending on the accessibility, the logistics, sometimes are required extra like in one of our projects the generator stator was stuck up for eight months. So, project specific only I can tell you whether I can prepone or pos tpone like Talcher Thermal which is under construction now which we awarded last year. We have very optimistic position even after 14 months of working that we are ahead four months that of schedule. If that gives you some kind of reasons to say cheers, that is good.

Got it, this is helpful. And Sir, last clarification in one of your previous questions you mentioned that the gap between consolidated and standalone should be about 15-20%, just to understand Sir because all the renewable is coming up in subsidiaries, which will add only in the consolidated profit, should not this gap only increase every year this 15-20% probably increasing every year.

Management

I have indicated because there are several JVs and subsidiaries and the net figure what would emerge should depend on interplays and peculiarities of each year financials. So, it would only be fair to assume that it would be around 15 to 20% but it depends on several factors.

Moderator

Thank you. The next question is line is from the line of Atul Tiwari from Citi. Please go ahead.

Yes, Sir thanks a lot. Sir on these 14 GW of PSP project will you be filing a regulated ROE PPA or is it like a fixed tariff for per kilo watt of power storage. For the pump storage projects I am asking.

Okay Sir so in that cost plus model I mean what is the ROE or ROC you are discussing on the employed equity or capital?

Management

Generally, the PSP also follows the same ROE that is allowed under the regulation for a hydro project.

Okay and Sir, any idea about the cost of the storage, I mean after say allowing for ROE what is the per unit cost of the storage currently.

Management

Storage cost would be on the order of say ₹3.50.

Okay so about ₹3.50 to ₹4.00 roughly.

Management

The figure that was indicated is purely the storage. What is called as the price adder will have an inherent tariff f or that and all put together could be in the range of ₹7.25 to ₹8.25. Storage is the cost which is in my control. So that will be of the order of ₹3.50 to ₹4.00 depending on the type of project and location.

Moderator

Thank you. That was the last question. I now hand the conference over to the management for closing remarks.

Management

Thank you. On behalf of NTPC management, I would like to thank all of you for participating in this conference call for the Q2 financials. Thank you so much.

Moderator

Thank you. On behalf of B&K Securities that conclude this conference. Thank you for joining us and you may now disconnect your lines. ***********************************