Nuvama Wealth Management Limited analyst Q&A

Thank you, sir. We will now begin the question and answer session. O ur first question comes from the line of Prayesh Jain with Motilal Oswal Financial Services. Please go ahead.

Congrats on good set of numbers. Just a few questions. Firstly, on this Asset Services side, while we have seen that the assets under custody and assets under clearing has more or less been flattish sequentially in Q4, but we still have seen a very good jump in revenues. What will be that attributed to?

So typically, average assets, if you see, within that, the float has actually gone up, Prayesh. One, because of the new clients, which we continue to acquire, there, the proportion of cash to non- cash collateral or G-Sec is normally higher. So that becomes a big contributor in terms of the number going up for the Asset Services business in general. And some yield pickup has also happened because if you see now the yield is inching towards 2%. And it is also a combination of two things. One, of course, new client acquisition continues to happen where we keep on getting the cash float. And second, if you remember, in the last call, we said that we moved to self-clearing for our wealth business. So that part of the float went out. So , in Q3, it was only for part of the quarter, Q4, you see the full effect so, the yield went up even further. So, there is an increase in yield and increase in the float assets within the overall assets.

Okay. Got it. Now coming to the private segment, where we have seen transaction revenues holding up pretty strong, it's at about INR90 crores in this quarter. What would you attribute to this? Would it be unlisted shares that has created this or how should we look at it?

It's a combination. That transactional revenue also has some bit of broking income, which, of course, was not up for this quarter. So, what you're saying is right. It was unlisted shares, fixed income and some other deal down-selling. So, combination of these three, because transactional income basically has only three-four line items. One is brokerage, second is unlisted, third is your structured product MLD and fourth is fixed income. So , it's split between all of this. There was some bit of heightened activity in both unlisted and fixed income in Q4.

And just one question on the overall cost to income on both wealth management side. While we've been investing over the years, over the last 1 -1.5 years to kind of add capacity, when do we really start seeing the benefits of these in terms of reported numbers, in terms of profitability? Do you think that we are still a year away? How should we think about this? And how long would you continue to invest in building more capacity in both the Wealth and the Private side?

See, if you look at it, and this we've discussed in the past, and I've also asked you this question and you only told me that you should continue to invest. So, I think we follow the same because if there is growth to be had, right, now as a business, you have two choices. One, you say that, okay, I want to show better cost income, stop investing in new talent. Immediately, this 66% moves to 63%. Now in the short run, which may be good, but I think in the long run, that's extremely damaging to the business. As long as you are able to get talent and you are able to move them on the productivity trajectory. Now this is a business which is a slow movement from, let's say, 1x productivity to 4-5x productivity. It takes 3 to 4 years. Because unless you start doing things which are non-aligned to customer, sell very high-margin products, which again will be damaging to the business and to the franchise. So, if you see a 2- 3 year trajectory as this productivity moves up, cost income gradually will keep coming down. I don't think we are going to slowdown investment considerably. Maybe in Nuvama Wealth for, let's say, one, two quarters because now if I look at the cohort of 1,200 plus RMs which we have, about 500 would be less than 1 year. So, in effect, that 500 on an aggregate basis are delivering 1x. So whatever number jump you are seeing is actually coming from the balance 700. Now the idea is to get some part of this 500 to slightly higher productivity. So , we may take a pause for maybe 1 to 2 quarters, focus on this and then restart. But if you ask me from a 2 -3 years perspective, I don't think the idea right now is to focus obsessively on this number and not build capacity because growth is there to be had.

Sir, is it fair to assume that your cost to income, which was at 66% for Nuvama Private and 67% for Nuvama Wealth, this would hold up in the near term, and we should keep these kind of numbers from our modelling perspective for the next couple of years

For FY '26, I think we are actually looking at 100 basis points down.

Okay. And this is at the full year number, not at the Q4 number because Q4 number was even higher I think...

Yes, at the full year number.

For the full year?

Because Q4, if you also see the cost, when we discussed, there are certain seasonal costs which bunch up at Q4. So Q4 cost is not the right reflection. At least the opex manpower costs will still be there. Even in manpower, incentive and bonus there could be catch up due to year-end. But otherwise, on a full year basis, you should see and then 100 basis points is what we want to target.

Got it. I will come back in the queue for more questions. Thank you.

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Dipanjan Ghosh from Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Just a few questions from my side. First, in terms of the transactional business, despite broking being a little volatile, we have seen th em do quite well, both in Private and Wealth. So, I just wanted to get some sense of when you look at the next 1 to 2 years, what will be the key revenue streams in this transactional portion, excluding broking obviously? And what's the pipeline sort of looking like that you can think of in that segment? Second, in your opening remarks, you mentioned that the pipeline on the IPO side is holding up well. So, from a model ling perspective, can you give some color on the pipeline or revenue potential out there? The third question is coming back to the custody clearing business. Obviously, last year was a year of significant number of new client additions. How is that looking like, let's say, for the next four, five quarters? And just one data keeping question. If you can quantify your corporate treasury book in the Nuvama Private business?

So, let's start with the first one. The first one is on the streams of transactional revenue. The streams of transactional revenue would largely remain what we are seeing, I mean, the same, unlisted shares, fixed income, MLDs, some corporate deals and all. I think by Q3, there are two streams which will get added for us maybe by Q2 some and Q3 some. Q2, I think we will see some addition of down-selling of our commercial real estate where now since we have a commercial real estate fund and obviously, the deal sizes there are large and when the fund goes and invest, you may get assets which are extremely good, but it may not fit fully within the funds' ambit. So, we may do a co-invest with some of our large clients and family offices. So that will be one that will get added. And if by Q3, we are able to get the credit fund going, then in Q4, you will also start seeing credit downsell. So, I think these two meaningful streams are there in the future, which will get added in terms of transaction revenue. From a trajectory perspective, unlike ARR, it will go up and down quarter-to-quarter. But on a full year basis, I think 40-45%, we will be able to maintain. Your second question was around the IB mandate. So IB, if I disintegrate and look at our overall IB, you obviously know we have a very, very strong fixed income practice. And that, we are seeing secular growth for the last 4 years and even now that growth continues because unlike the equity side of the market. It's a very, I would say, a repeatable market because when somebody borrows, by definition, that borrowing comes to an end and they have to re-borrow. Unlike an IPO, once done is done. Then if you need fresh capital, then only that issuer will come and access the market. So obviously, the fees in terms of percentages and quantum are lower, but the repeated-ness of the business is significantly higher. And we've also built more pipes there because of this entire FII interest or FPI interest in India, given the G-Sec has been included in the bond indices, that activity has grown substantially, and we are focusing on that. So, we have a lot of FII side of business that is coming in on that side. So that part remains strong. On the non-fixed income side, in addition to IPO, so IPO, in my view, we have 30 to 35 mandates which are signed. Now we will wait for the market condition, investor appetite and all that. So, you are going to see that coming through. I will not put a number to that, but the number is reasonable and probabilistically also, we feel if the market sustains at this level, we will be able to play that out. What we are adding to that is an intense focus on generating mandates on non-ECM side, which is advisory. There also, we have about 10 -15 mandates right now. Some sell side, mostly sell size because buy-side doesn't get materialized so easily, mostly on the sell side. So that's on the pipeline side on the IB. On the custody clearing, I think this year was a breakout year. I don't think we will see an 80 - 85% growth next year. I want to, but I don't think we will. But having said that, I think the entire F&O thing, which was clouding the whole space for the last 6 months, is now out of the way. Two things, we have seen. After the implementation of whatever the regulators have put out, we have seen the full quarter 4 play out, and we have not seen a dent in revenue because again, people operate with a peak margin which is intraday and that doesn't fluctuate that much. That keeps going up given the deployment opportunity they have. Now with the new rules which is now as a discussion paper and maybe will get finalized where the limits have been increased to INR1,500 - 10,000 crores, and limit will be monitored on a delta-adjusted open interest basis, there are flexible rules on index futures and market-wide, open position will also be linked to cash volume. So, this has removed a lot of uncertainty because the regulators also took feedback from most of these international clients who operate in this market. And more importantly, the intraday peak has been removed from being a limit than to monitoring, which is there in most of the developed markets in the world. So subsequent to this change, the amount of interest that has started to come back again, most of the people who were sitting on the fence are coming back. So , I think we should see a good year once again. Again, I'm repeating it will not be a similar increase like we saw last year, but it will be a decent jump even on this elevated base. What was your last question, Dipanjan? I forgot.

Sir, the corporate treasury book on the Nuvama Private side, the quantum?

Got it. Thank you and all the best.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Mohit Mangal from Centrum India. Please go ahead.

Congratulations on a good set of numbers. So , my first question is on the net flows. I mean if I look at net flows in the Wealth division, that number seems to be pretty low at around say INR630 odd crores. And if I look at previous two quarters, it was more than like INR2,000 odd crores. So just wanted to know, I mean, what led to this downfall and going forward, how should we see the net flows within the Wealth division?

So, if you look at the data book, Mohit, we give two lines on the net flows. So , there is a net flow and then there is an MPIS net flow. Actually, the relevant line to see is the MPIS net flow because the other net flow includes loan assets, it includes broking assets, where the bearing of the net flow to revenue is not correlated. On loan assets, it will be, but loan assets is a discretionary item for us in the sense, we can dial up and dial it down the way we want. It has less of a function of a market phenomenon for us. But broking assets, the correlation of net flow to revenue is not directional. Broking assets, the higher correlation is between the volumes in the market and the directional trend of the market. So MPIS net flow is what you have to see and that is what we target, that is what we want to focus on, because that contains a combination of annuity assets and the investment assets, which is your fixed income , MLDs and all. That net flow, if you see from a year -on-year basis, has grown by about 30%. And on the base of last year, it has grown again by 30%. And even in Q4, which was, I think, an extremely challenging quarter in terms of overall equity environment and uncertainty around that, we've been able to do INR1,350 - 1,400 crores.

Understood. That is helpful. My second question is on the attrition. So, I just wanted to know, I mean, how has been the attrition at the RM and the client level? And do you saw any loss of AUM because of the client attrition?

Not really. In both the businesses, we have not seen attrition of clients. Attrition of RMs is a normal, natural phenomenon and both business operates very, very differently. In our private business, typically, people take 3- 4 years to build books. So, for them to leave is like going and rebuilding, it's an arduous exercise. So there, the regret attrition for this quarter is actually 0. In our Nuvama Wealth, we categorize RMs in different buckets. So , at the top end, we call the big league, there the attrition would be order of magnitude . About 300-350 people come in our big league out of our 1,200, we would have lost 3-4 people there. And out of the rest, the attrition can be 25-30% as compared to banks which operate at 45-50%.

Yes, that's right.

Okay. Thanks, and wish you all the best.

Thank you. O ur next question comes from the line of Sanketh Godha with Avendus Spark. Please go ahead.

Ashish, on the core flow number, net flow number, if I look at INR10,000 crores in Private ARR, MPIS INR6,500 odd crores and AMC INR4,500 odd crores, so INR21,000 crores. This is core net flow number. So, I just want to understand, given this number has grown by 65 percentage almost year-on-year. I mean how do you see this growth to play out in FY26 and which segments where you will see the maximum flow to happen, whether it is Private or MPIS, just want to have a color how it will play out?

So, in terms of size of the net flow, I think Private will be higher. And in terms of percentage, I would assume, now if you look at the closing ARR book, it's around INR44,000 crores. If we are able to do anywhere between 25-30% on that, so you are again looking at INR10,000 crores to INR11,000 crores coming from there is what we will target. Anything above that is even better. Similarly, on the Wealth side, now our MPIS book would be around maybe INR30,000 crores, again, a 25-30%, so maybe INR7,000 - 8,000 crores there. On the Asset Management side, this year, public markets led the net flows. I think in the coming year, depending on how the public market flows settle, I think on the commercial real estate side, we are looking at a total net flow. So, let's say, we've had INR285 crores in asset management in quarter 4. If I see FY26, at least INR2,000 crores -INR2,300 crores will come in commercial real estate. INR3,000 crores to INR4,000 crores bare minimum we'll target in the public market and say about INR800 crores to INR1,000 crores in the private market. So, if you add all this together, we are again order of magnitude INR5,000 - 6,000 crores. So, leaving your credit fund aside, because I think that the real play will come in FY '27 and not in '26. So, if I add all this together, we come back to some INR23,000 - 24,000 crores at the bare minimum is what we target.

Okay. Perfect. So, which means that this AUM growth of, again, around 20% plus is still overall possible is the view you have, right?

Yes.

Okay. Perfect. And the second question, maybe again back to the cost number. So, if I look at Private and mid -market put together, you are at 67 -68% percentage and your capital market business is at 40%. I was just wondering, given you had a significant increase, a delta change in the contribution of the capital market business in the current year, if the capital market business broadly grows in line with the Wealth business next year, then is it fair to say that, that 55% cost ratio what you reported might inch up back to 57- 58%? Because I'm asking this question because you had seen some 100 basis improvement in the cost ratio. That 100 basis is meant to reflect only for the Wealth side or overall company put together?

That was for the Wealth side, Sanketh. If you look at the balance, t wo, so I'm saying there will be some improvement in the asset management. Obviously, the quantum is small, so the impact on the overall will be lesser. But in capital markets, if we disaggregate, again, Asset Services, I think broadly, we will be at a simil ar cost to income this year or we will marginally improve over this year. Maybe institutional equities and investment bank, if the growth is slower, that is also a business where the variable cost, Sanketh, are very much linked to the growth of revenues. So, there will be some adjustments which will happen there. So, it's not that the revenue has a straight pass - through to the PBT. So even if that, let's say, degenerates by 200 -300 basis points, if we are able to improve wealth by about 100 and let's say, Asset Services also by about 100, we should be able to neutralize. But worst case, you can see maybe a 50-100 basis points decline if you have an average year.

Okay. Perfect. So basically, predominantly the endeavour will be at overall company level to maintain the same cost-to-income ratio, what we experienced in '25?

Yes.

And lastly, or maybe two more. And lastly, on yields, my point on yield is that maybe there could be some seasonality and product mix factored but if I look at from '24 to '25, the yields, honestly, except for the clearing business, there has been a bit of a depletion. So, should we assume the yields, what you have realized with respect to ARR, MPIS and maybe AMC business will hold up and clearing business, 1.61% is what you reported for the full year, will be the new normal going ahead?

So actually, clearing business, I think the new normal should be closer to maybe 1.8-1.9%. I am assuming some decline in the FD yields coming in maybe Q3-Q4. And already, we are sitting at 2%. So, combining the two, we will still be higher than 1.6%. In private, I think will sustain. Obviously, some quarter will be up and some quarter will be down depending on the composition of AIF II versus AIF III. Wealth, also, in my view, unless, Wealth, Sanketh, we've discussed this, right? There is a denominator effect of MTM of equity assets. Now if this year, you don't see any phenomenal MTM happening, then these yields will sustain. If tomorrow the equity markets go up by 50%, obviously, the revenues will also go up, but the yield will look lower.

Yes, understood. Perfect. And lastly, Ashish, any color on PAG exit or sell? If you can tell us , given there are lot of articles in the paper that PAG is thinking to sell and whether it will be full block or partial and if it happens, how it will happen? Any color on that would be useful?

I have also read the same news article, Sanketh. If there is anything which has to be reported, we will report to the exchange. There is no such development which has happened. And I'm also privy to the same articles which you are privy to. So, we are actually at the same page right now.

Okay, Ashish. That’s useful. Thanks. Those are my questions.

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Ashish Agarwal from Oaklane Capital. Please go ahead.

Sir, I had two questions basically. So overall, if I look at HNI wealth growth, that growth has been pretty good. But if I look the client count essentially for HNI segment, that has not seen much growth. So, what can we do essentially to get that growth number on the client count side? And also, can we look at inorganic route?

No, I think client count will be a function of RMs and how we add and how much they can manage. So, I think we are pretty much happy with the current level of clients which we have. If we are actually able to deeper mine the ones which we already have, we will be happier than just going out and acquiring. In terms of inorganic, one always keeps looking for an opportunity, but it has to be some real addition, right? It can't just be going and buying some other wealth management firm because right now, the valuations are through the roof. So either it has to be some addition of some asset class expertise which they have, which we don't have, which has to be a strategic fit. Otherwise, for us, if you look at our overall business diversification, we pretty much have most of the components that are needed. So, in order to add something inorganic, there has to be something compelling available for us.

Okay. And just a follow -up on that is that does that apply to basically increase our global presence as well like something looking at a collaboration or something like that?

Yes, that is something which one can look at because if in global, we get something where we can acquire and it speeds up our process and it is a strategic fit, that we are always open to. In terms of collaboration, I think globally, there are extremely we ll evolved models which exist today. And if you study with a concept called external asset manager, which is prevalent in both Singapore, Hong Kong, Dubai where we as a firm can become an external asset manager to any of these large global private banks and then there is a revenue sharing of 50- 60% which they share and their entire platform, including their lending book, research, product access, product people, investment experts, analysts, everything is opened up. So, you're not actually then tied to one firm because, very frankly, if you get tied to one firm, then you may not be able to exploit the benefits which are available across the other platforms.

Okay. Thank you, sir. These are my questions. Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Lalit Deo with Equirus Securities. Please go ahead.

So just two questions. Firstly, on the lending book, sir, as you mentioned that we have reworked on the model, we have reworked on this segment. So just wanted to understand like, what would be the desired levels of the lending book which we are looking to grow in FY '26 and FY '27? And similarly on the yield side, so there, we have seen that the NIMs have come under pressure in the loan book to around 5%. So, what would be the steady state for FY '26 and '27?

I think the steady state for our Wealth business would be anywhere between 5-5.5% and for our Private business would be again between 4.5-5%. And in terms of the book growth, it should be in line with the overall business growth. So, in my view, we would want to look at least at the end of period book growth, maybe by, let's say, if our opening book is, say, INR5,000 crores. And we want a 20% growth, that means about INR1,000 crores at an average level. So, by end of year, it should have grown by INR1,800-2,000 crores is what ideally we would want to target.

Sure, sir. And sir, just on the asset management side. So, when we're looking at a growth of around INR4,000 crores of net flows in public market, around somewhere between INR7,000 crores to INR8,000 crores of net flows on the overall side for FY '26. So, in terms of cost income ratio, so currently we are at a level of 130%. So, by when one should expect to achieve breakeven in this business?

I think at INR20,000 crores of assets, we think we will be breakeven. So, if you look at the cost there, it's about INR78-80 crores, right? And if you assume that the cost will grow by, say, hypothetically, I'm saying 10%, 12%, so you are looking at INR88-90 crores of cost in FY '26, ex of the credit funds. So, I'm talking existing strategies. Now if you look at each of the individual components and their yields. So in my sense, if you are hitting a cost of, say, INR90 crores, I think you would end up at a revenue of anywhere between INR85-86 crores, if you are able to achieve the net flow numbers which we are talking about. And at that level, the gap is really minimal. And to be very frank, you also load the group allocated costs on that business, which obviously is lower compared to other businesses. Excluding that, that business is breakeven. But including that, I think FY '27 somewhere around the middle is when we should start seeing that business breakeven on a quarterly basis.

So, sir, my question is regarding wealth management AUM. So, sir, can you just shed some light, out of the total wealth management AUM, how much we have from ARR AUM? How much is the ARR AUM of the total?

Of the total in Nuvama Private, about 25%.

Okay. And sir, my second question is regarding the investment banking activity in India. And how do you see the IPOs, FPOs and all of these doing over the next 2 years in India?

Two years, nobody can say. I can say at least for the next 6 months, we are seeing some action coming back because I think what happened to the market from September to March, the investors saw so much pain in their portfolios that they were not willing to commit fresh monies into the new supply that was coming in. I think that is somewhat adjusting now, and slowly and steadily, if the market sustains at this level and if they start putting in IPOs where they don't see losses, in the next 6 months, you will see the action fully back. But 2 years, I don't think anybod y can actually predict on the IPO market is very difficult.

And my last question. Sir, how do you see the AIF industry growing in India over the next 1 year?

At least by 30-40%.

Okay, sir. Thank you so much. All the best.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, as there are no other further questions from the participants, I now hand the conference over to the management for closing comments.

Thank you. I think as usual, it was interesting interacting with you. Look forward to seeing you all, I think 2 months from now when we do our Q1. Thank you for coming again. All the best.

Thank you. On behalf of Nuvama Wealth Management Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us and you may now disconnect your lines.