The Phoenix Mills Limited

Quarter ended Mar 2024

2024-05-18 Transcript PDF
Moderator

Thank you very much. We will now begin the question -and-answer session. First question is from the line of Parikshit Kandpal from HDFC Securities. Please go ahead.

Shishir Shrivastava

Thanks for your question Parikshit. Let me try and answer it to the best of my abilities. If you look at our operating assets, several of our Phoenix Market Cities continue to be at the lag end of the tenure with anchors. So, for example, Phoenix MarketCity, Bangalore, and Phoenix Market City, Pune both have anchor space, which is about more than 52%. During the cycle of the mall ’s life, or the tenure of the contracts, we continue to see opportunities to make these malls more efficient. What I mean by that is moving away from being anchor heavy, depending on where you are in the life of that mall, what the customer aspirations are, and bringing in a new brand mix, and perhaps new categories. So, we did this in Phoenix MarketCity, Mumbai, and we have seen a significant, I would say in one - one and a half years, the numbers have played out, and they demonstrate how the strategy has worked for us. So in several of our malls, we are now seeing that opportunity again, in the next year and maybe year and a half. So, that strategy will help boost consumption. So it’s always important to refresh the category mix and brand mix. We took some hit at Lower Parel as I mentioned during my opening remarks, with the Lifestyle block, which generated close to Rs. 25 - Rs. 27 crore s annual rent and significant consumption, we saw a drop in consumption and rent because the Lifestyle block was vacated and demolished to create a better experience for the ongoing development. We are doing some fantastic work at Phoenix Palladium, Mumbai in expansion. There is a host of new brands that we are in discussion with and these are definitely going to aid in improving both consumption and overall rental income for us. So , I don’t think we are seeing any structural issue here, which is causing a consumption to let ’s say, be at a stable, consistent level or not demonstrate great growth. It’s every mall in its life has this opportunity of improvements every three to five years and that’s where we are in with several of our malls. So, we are going to see this getting better.

Parikshit Kandpal

And guidance for next year, what kind of things to grow you are looking at?

Shishir Shrivastava

Sorry, Parikshit can you repeat what you are saying?

Parikshit Kandpal

So for these malls which are like operational, like -to-like basis what kind of growth you think we can forecast for FY 25 versus 8% you have reported this year?

Shishir Shrivastava

See, I don ’t think it ’s fair to talk about FY 25 alone. I would say one has to always look at the three year CAGR, three to five year CAGR and over a three to five year CAGR. I would estimate anywhere between 11 % to 12% kind of growth.

Parikshit Kandpal

Okay. Sir my second question is on Thane. So, you have acquired the land parcel so any plans like what have we decided to do there. One of your competitor is coming up with a hotel about 560 odd rooms, keys. So any plans, what are you looking to add there, do there, in terms of you can help us in the mix understand where we commercial, hospitality what you intend to do there?

Shishir Shrivastava

We are not ready to announce what we are doing there yet, because it ’s still not concluded. So, we are going to take probably another two-three months to perhaps decide. But it’s seeming to be a large mixed-use development with a combination of maybe some retail, some hotel, we are trying to really determine if residential is the right way to go , that’s where the question really is and what’s the best use on this land. So we will be very, very happy to announce as soon as we have taken a decision.

Parikshit Kandpal

Okay. And just last thing on the Residential piece. So now we have said we are increasing our overall developable area there my FY27. So what kind of pre sales number do you think we can achieve on a more consistent and steady basis so that, that portfolio gives more visibility on growth. We didn’t have any major launches besides the Bangalore one, Alipore is still awaited. So how do you intend to build that portfolio over the next three four years and what kind of places do you think you can achieve in that segment in three years’ time, more on the roadmap of three years, next three years.

Shishir Shrivastava

In Kolkata, we have secured the major approvals, this is going to be about a million square feet of saleable area . We are waiting, we have applied for EC; so we are in the process of getting the approvals. We may be about six to eight months away from launch on this asset. Th e micro market there seems to be very, very strong and stable. Our primary research is showing rates in that micro market to be in excess of about Rs. 18,000 – Rs.20,000. We have already decided on what the product mix is going to be like in terms of the sizing of the apartments, configuration, etc. We have about Rs. 350 to Rs. 400 crores as our target this year to sell the ready inventory which we have in Bangalore between One Bangalore West & Kessaku. So, that’s a great target for us to chase another Rs. 400 crores this year. We have total ready inventory of about Rs. 1,200 crores of which this year we are targeting about Rs. 400 crores, we certainly work harder to deliver more than our target. We have taken some price hikes and the market has also accepted that well. And we are selling at about Rs. 24,000 per square foot plus plus, compared to Rs. 15,000 per square foot plus plus in 2019. This would be our guidance for FY 25 that we are targeting to get about aim to sell about Rs. 400 crores.

Parikshit Kandpal

And more on the longer term like three, four years what kind of sales can this segment do for us like Residential, can we reach that 2000 crore number with addition of more projects over the next two, three years?

Shishir Shrivastava

So currently, we don’t have any active plans on expanding on Residential. We are not in any race to become a larger Residential developer. We are being very selective about the opportunities and depending on the value at which we are a ble to buy land in mature , stable markets where absorption has been consistent, we will continue to look at those opportunities. But I can clarify that today we are not actively looking at any Residential growth, new projects.

Moderator

Thank you very much. The next question is from the line of Praveen Choudhary from Morgan Stanely. Please go ahead.

Morgan Stanely

Just a quick question for me. Can you talk about the competition in tier one existing cities where you already have malls in terms of are you finding considering how good this business has been, credible competition coming in. And the second question is on tier two cities, the return on invested capital, how are you thinking about it as you are going into newer cities . So far you have obviously achieved that. But are you finding that you may not be, or you need to slow down if the returns are coming slower. How are you thinking about it is the question. Thank you.

Shishir Shrivastava

Thanks Praveen. So, let’s talk about tier one cities and competition in tier one cities. See we have seen a significant I would say we continue to see a good growth in our numbers in tier one cities , it’s a great business to be in. But it also requires a very large team, a lot of effort. Land has become very expensive and especially in the locations where our malls are, land has become very expensive. So , there are many factors which deter competition . We are conscious of the fact that there can be competition, anybody can come into these markets. So, our focus is on creating such experiential centers, which become dominant consumption centers. And with that approach, we will continue to stay a little ahead of the game here. We don’t see other developers building malls around our locations at present in any of the markets where we are and we will continue to innovate, get bigger, better where we are. So, that we are just always established as a dominant center. Your second question was return on capit al invested in tier two cities. In fact, I must say that return on capital in percentage terms, I would say have been even better than tier one, because these are not really, they may be tier two cities, but they are tier one opportunities. Case and example Phoenix Palassio Lucknow within six years of acquisition we are seeing a yield on cost of about 17% and growing every year. And Indore, Ahmedabad these also look to be very, very promising. We are very keen to work , go ahead full steam, on our retail project at Surat and it is progressing fast. We expect to see the same story that play ed out in Lucknow to also play out in Surat, which is a great market to be in. Ahmedabad, I would like to say that in the first full year of operations our yield has exceeded 14% so that’s great.

Morgan Stanely

Thank you. That totally makes sense , I did go to your Ahmedabad mall, it’s actually fantastic. I have one more question if it ’s okay. I was looking at your slide number #12 and you have category wise growth in your consumption. So, you look at electronics showing minus 1% or others showing 3% , food and beverage slightly lower. How are you thinking about it of course, you can’t have a mall which has zero percentage of these categories. But how do you ensure that you keep pruning it and improving that trade mix? Thank you.

Shishir Shrivastava

Yes, pruning and correcting the category mix and the brand mix is very routine for us. This is how we manage our retail business , it’s something that we do virtually every day . Looking at electronics specifically, it ’s a blip for that one year and interestingly last year we did an electronics fest which really , really worked well . This was done in Bangalore and Chennai and we saw great turnout for that . So, there are these mark eting initiatives that we create for specific categories to boost their sales and we are not seeing electronics really not getting customers, it’s not like customers have moved away from coming into physical stores and started ordering online to the extent that will impact these physical stores. Accordingly, we remain very vigilant on the performance of each of the categories and we continue to take corrective action be it marketing, be it engaging with them, launching some kind of a special. I would like to talk a little bit about F &B in our newer malls . We have significantly increased the percentage of gross leasable area occupied by F&B in the new malls we maybe in about 15 %- 16% range for F&B alone. And then you add that, entertainment centers, multiplex and entertainment options, you are inching closer to about 30%. This is a very, I would say a strategic shift, where F&B and entertainment would earlier occupy cumulatively about 15% and now, we are inching closer to about 30%. Even in our existing malls we are working on an upgrade to revamp uplift F&B brands and options. So , this drives the relevant profile of the customer to the mall, and drives overall consumption.

Moderator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Kunal Lakhan from CLSA. Please go ahead.

My first question was on, what is the development plan for the 6.6 acres of land that we have bought in Bangalore?

Shishir Shrivastava

Hi Kunal . This, land is adjacent to our existing Phoenix MarketCity development, and which sits under the joint venture with CPP in an SPV called Island Star. So, now, this is exactly adjacent to that we have the ability, we are looking at how we can amalgamate the two land parcels and be able to utilize the overall development mix in a composite manner. So, it has a, I would say the land parcel has a development potential, including TDR of about 1.3 - 1.4 million square feet. We have at our existing development, we have development potential, including TDR of 3 million square feet , and we are expanding the existing mall and existing mall development. As you are aware we are adding a ~400 room hotel Grand Hyatt, we have plans to add about a million odd square feet of offices. So, this acquisition will help us create a much larger destination with more perhaps more retail and more entertainment and F&B options. And we also have the ability to evaluate a standalone residential development should we want to take that up, the rates seem to be fairly reasonable, viable, and profitable in that area, and in the range of about Rs.15,000 a square foot. So that is also under consideration. We are working on several options now. Since we have recently acquired, we may be about two quarters away from deciding how we want to proceed with the development here.

Sure. Just a few thoughts there. Generally this is very kind of uncharacteristic of us, in terms of like, in the past we have generally been very clear about like what we want to do and then in fact we have paid top dollar and bought land and built malls, and those malls have been pretty strong in terms of profitability and return. Whereas this is like, this again like very similar to what we are doing in Thane also, they bought land, but we are not sure what we are going to build over there. Any change in the thought process or strategic thinking that versus what used to be doing in the past versus what we are doing today?

Shishir Shrivastava

Yes, so with this Bangalore land of 6.6 acres, it was an opportunity that we had to close very fast . It came up in our discussions with the landowners and we didn’t really get an opportunity to deep dive into finalizing a development mix. Of course, we ran numbers based on a base case. But we are trying to see how we can improve on that base case. And it ’s a little complex because the property is immediately adjacent to us. We have this existing mall, we are already constructing the multi-level car park and the office towers on top of that, which are closer to the boundary of this adjacent land parcel. So, we are trying to figure out what is the most efficient and I would say what is going to be the best experience for a customer here in terms of circulation, etc. So, it will undergo a little bit of some , it requires a lot of thought. But nevertheless, we feel that it ’s a huge value add to this development. The ability to add another 1.3-1.4 million square feet to this development, perhaps even going up higher, is a huge value add to our overall destination.

Sure. Just one follow up on that is, in terms of like we are looking at like, you gave an example of Bangalore also that you may look at adding some retail space also over there. And we are only doing some expansion at the Palladium, Mumbai in terms of retail space. Our earlier strategy was like build these, like 1 million square feet of retail was like the sw eet spot. But do you think that, that thing is changing now, like there is potential of building larger scale malls and we are seeing that with some of your competitors also, who are building like huge malls, especially in North?

Shishir Shrivastava

No, absolutely the sweet spot has moved up simply because of the demand from retail brands. So many new global brands entering into the country its becoming, the sweet spot now is closer to about 1.4 -1.5 million square feet. And that’s the goal of our expansion across all locations where we have malls operating and also the new malls that we are building.

Moderator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Parvez Qazi from Nuvama Wealth. Please go ahead.

Nuvama Wealth

Two question s from my side , first in terms of our trading occupancy which currently is at about 88% will it be fair to assume that let’s say by the end of FY25 this number would have moved to somewhere closer to the mid-90s at a portfolio level?

Nuvama Wealth

Sure. And my second question is regarding our various office assets. Would be great if you could tell us about the status of the construction there and when do we expect the various assets to become operational.

Shishir Shrivastava

So, Asia Towers, Bangalore is nearly complete, we are waiting for the OC, and we should be able to commence operations immediately thereafter. Phoenix Millennium Towers at Pune, Wakad - these will be ready by the end of this calendar year and Chennai as well. So, we are estimating within the next six months both of these , at least phase one of Millennium Tower, Pune will be ready before the end of this calendar year , which will be about half a million square feet and Chennai, half a million square feet should be ready by the end of this calendar year. The offices that we are building in Mumbai as part of our flagship development at Lower Parel– we expect this to be completed sometime in 2027. And, yes at Bangalore, about 400,000 square feet of new offices at Phoenix MarketCity, Bangalore on Whitefield Road should be ready by 2026, calendar year 2026.

Nuvama Wealth

Got it. And apart from that two acquisitions that we have done in Thane and Bangalore. How is our business development, et c. plans for new retail asset development, whether in tier one or tier two cities?

Shishir Shrivastava

There are probably two more real transactions that we are currently pursuing, and we should be able to conclude them in this calendar year. So that would add maybe another 2 - 2.5 million to our portfolio in the next four years or four to five years. I had previously guided to closing four to five transactions within 24 months. This was in the last quarter call. The Bangalore acquisition was the first one and there are two more which are underway . So, give us a couple of quarters to be able to announce more.

Moderator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Atul Mehra from Motilal Oswal. Please go ahead.

Motilal Oswal

My question is, in terms of retail expansion so in the presentation we have spoken about 11 going to 14 msft. So, the question was in terms of given our very successful in terms of response so far on that just like Ahmedabad and Lucknow you spoke about. Can we look at the next two to three years to build a very, very large pipeline, like the targeting +20 million in retail, because what tends to happen is, every city will tend to have a potential destination which will prosper over the next decade. And if we don’t get that opportunity, some of our competitors might go in there. And which would mean that once they have an established asset, it would not give us that opportunity, because obviously there is a limit to how much land space a city can absorb. So structurally, given also that we have a very strong balance sheet today, and cash flows are very strong, can we look at stepping up the growth agenda on retail?

Shishir Shrivastava

Atul, the estimate is to hit about , to have a pipeline to target about 20 million square feet in the next few years, of course we are already at 14 million square feet. With the two, three acquisitions that we are considering right now. Plus, the development at Thane, plus the extensive exp ansion that we are doing everywhere, we will hit that 20 million much sooner. We continue to look for opportunities, selectively in key markets. So , like I mentioned to you, I don ’t know if you remember this, but way back in 2017, we had told you what our portfolio is going to be, we are going to get 13 million square feet by 2023 end and we are going to make sure that we add another million square feet every year. So, we are very, we are well on track of delivering that and perhaps more.

Motilal Oswal

Right, got it that’s good to know.

Shishir Shrivastava

Now, we are shifting gears also. Of course we are going to be very selective, but we are looking at each development being that 1.5 million plus, as I mentioned in my response to the previous question.

Motilal Oswal

And henceforth like when you are looking at setting up, so is the template going to be 1.5 million for all new assets that you wish to acquire or it depends on like, like we have done in the past phase wise development and maybe looking at building on assets?

Shishir Shrivastava

It depends on, now when we acquire land mostly the sizing is such that you have the ability to develop much more even, the development regulations in all cities have changed, the FSI available is more. But depending on the demand in any particular market, we will decide on the size and we will always have the opportunity for future expansion, which we plan for right up front. So , the new development in Bangalore for example, which is Mall of Asia, Pune Mall of the Millennium, we have also completed, we are building the mall and office at the same time. So earlier, we used to pre-build the mall then wait a few years. But, because the market is ready at these locations for the office asset class, we have decided to go ahead upfront. So, it’s going to be customized , but the sweet spot for retail in tier one is definitely about a million and a half. But depending on for example, if we look at a smaller town, we may not choose to build a million half upfront, we may build only 800,000 and then keep a second phase development potential.

Moderator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Prem Khurana from Anand Rathi. Please go ahead.

Anand Rathi

Sir, just if could talk about the Indore asset in detail because in terms of trading density seems to be a not there, generally when I compare with most of the other assets that we have and most of these assets would be closer to Rs. 1,000 sort of number on trading densities side like Lucknow and recently commissioned Pune and all. But this is closer to Rs. 600 odd so are we happy with this number or is it is in line with your expectation or it’s slightly lagging your expectation?

Shishir Shrivastava

Okay. I would think that overall, what we have underwritten when we acquired this land in terms of rental income, we are probably there already, almost there. In terms of trading density Rs.600 per square foot per month you are right. But then we must also understand that the retailers ’ cost is lower because rentals are lower. So, if you look at the occupancy cost compared to a mall which is at Rs. 2,000- Rs.2,300 trading density compared to Indore which is at Rs. 600, their occupancy cost is much lower. That yes, there is a lot of effort to be put into it’s already established, I would say as a great destination. But we have to put in a lot more effort into bringing in great F&B options and driving other marketing activities, etc. to drive the right profile of the customer there. Rent is averaging as I mentioned earlier, at this mall at about Rs. 79 per sq. ft., all the other malls are averaging at about Rs.150 per sq. ft. or even higher. So, for our model, what we have spent in acquisition and the incremental cost of construction at Rs. 750 crores, we are already at an EBITDA of about Rs.85- Rs.86 crores for the year, it is 11% yield. And we are quite confident it will take maybe it will take another two quarters for our strategy to play out and for consumption to start growing here.

Anand Rathi

Sure. And in terms of monthly rental rate that you are charging and I agree it’s lower than some of these other malls but, if I were to look at from so eventually when I look at a retailer they tend to have their cost structures in place and how much do they in tend to share with you in terms of CAM and rental rate. And , what would you believe is the ideal number for these and for example for Indore it works out to be 20 % odd sort of number. Palladium I can understand it ’s a destination of course people will be willing to pay more than 20%, 25% Just to be able to have presence there. But generally speaking, whenever you are evaluating what sort of number do you tend to bake in into your estimates to understand whether the mall would find take or not?

Varun Parwal

Hi Prem, Varun this side. So, the question on Indore, one thing that does not come out when you look at a retail mall is the tenant mix that you have with each center. So, Indore, for example has today lower anchor area than what you would see even in Kurla or Pune or Bangalore and that has been a very conscious strategy, driving more in line centers and creating more space for F&B and family entertainment centers , which actually drives a stickier profile of the grade A consumers that we are targeting. And because the anchor area is lower in area in Indore, cost of occupancy can actually be higher than what you may see for established centers like a Phoenix MarketCity in Bangalore or Pune or Chennai which are at about 13% - 14% rent to consumption.

Moderator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Mohit Agrawal from IIFL Securities. Please go ahead.

IIFL Securities

My first question is, we talked about tier one malls. So just for your expansion in tier one metro cities , we have so far taken the greenfield route for constructing new malls, but for given the land availability issue, would you be open to or have you considered exploring the brownfield or acquiring existing malls and turning them around. And would your valuation expectations be very different when you are acquiring a brownfield mall, so, that’s my first question.

Shishir Shrivastava

Yes, generally we look at greenfield developments, resulting in a stabilized yield. Let’s say in the third year or fourth year of operation, we look at trying to be closer to 18 %, 19% kind of yield on cost. So that ’s where we find the real value for us . Buying operational malls - the opportunities are very, very few because there aren ’t too many great malls that meet our specs for u s to acquire. We are always open to acquiring brownfield assets . With brownfield assets also our experience with let’s say Lucknow has been fantastic when we acquired it at a great price, and we were able to take it to completion in a very short span of time and make the mall operational. So, we are open to brownfield and greenfield is clearly what we do. Operating malls, as I mentioned, there aren ’t too many assets that we can look to buy , the ones which were available for sale have already been purchased by several of the funds, as you know the REITs. And the returns are very, very low. So that ’s really not our principal strategy.

IIFL Securities

Okay, understood that’s clear. And secondly, on the commercial bid, you gave timelines on the completion. So, between Bangalore, Millennium Towers and Chennai, in the next six months we have almost roughly about 1.5 to 2 million square feet of space coming up. What is the leasi ng pipeline looking like in these assets?

Shishir Shrivastava

So, this is about 1.6 million square feet. We have started soft leasing at Asia Towers Bangalore, and we have there has been a lot of interest we have seen, despite North Bangalore being a slightly soft market we have seen a lot of inquiries and interest in this asset. We will see great traction as we get our OC in place in the coming months . At Pune Millennium Towers and Chennai, we have not yet started leasing, but we have started inviting potential leads and again, I would say there ’s a reasonably good inbound interest from a lot of tenants in both these markets.

Moderator

Thank you. As that was the last question. On behalf of The Phoenix Mills Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.