The first question is from the line of Siddharth Bassi from SASS&B.
Nov 2025 call
I will ask a few questions and I'd like it, if you could answer them one by one. So that will be great. Firstly, regarding the drop in revenue and the drop in EBITDA margin. In the last con call, the management had told us that from Q1 onwards, Q2, Q3, Q4 will be looking progressively better, Q2& H1FY’26 Earnings Conference Call Transcript Page 5 where there'll be an expansion in margins and a growth in revenue. So, what made the revenue drop and the margins reduce? Because in the last call, you had also mentioned that the impact of tariffs was only Rs. 6 crores on a U.S. customer. So that's nothing compared to our top line. So, management now saying that the tariffs have led to a reduction in revenue. Does seem a little off from the last call. So , could you just explain the disparity, please? And then I'll ask the other questions.
Siddharth, actually assuming that in the first quarter of the year, the tariff was only 25% and post reciprocal tariff of 25%, the tariff went up to 50%. And there was a lot of confusion until mid of September, when the government of U.S. has clarified that automotive tariff is only going to be 25%. And that led to a slowdown of dispatches for the customers because they were not prepared to pass on any tariff beyond 25%, which had been agreed by them initially. Second is that overall, it is tariff-related activity has just not affected U.S., it has affected our Mexico also because overall demand in U.S. has gone down drastically beyond the projections, which we have received from customers. And on a rational approach, we did not want t o continue shipping material and parking them in the warehouse and affecting our cash flows. That's the reason, as a rational company took a step to cut down on the inventory because if you see right now the projections which the customers or any U.S. is coming out that from first quarter of their calendar year, the situation is going to improve over there in U.S. And that's the reason we took a stand. And after all this clarification came, we have seen, again , the pullback in terms of shipments have started happening.
Okay. So, you're saying basically that post Q1, so Jan, Feb, March onwards, you're going to see traction in the U.S. market. Now obviously, since they're already halfway through the middle of Q3 as well, what sort of traction are you seeing in Q3? Is it Q3 better than Q2?
Obviously, it is significantly better than Q2.
Okay. Wonderful. Sir, are we then on towards Q3, Q4 guiding for higher revenues and higher margins, like EBITDA margins upwards of the high like 18, 19 sorts? Or what are we looking at? Q2& H1FY’26 Earnings Conference Call Transcript Page 6
In terms of revenue, we still maintain that with the kind of capacity we have already put in place and capacity up and running. And as promised that most of our capex will be completed by 30th September and capacity in place, we still believe that the proj ections which we had given at the year-end results, means at the March results of double -digit growth, we still maintain that on the full year basis, we will be able to maintain our commentary of double-digit growth for the full year.
With the higher EBITDA margins than the 15%, 16% range? I think back to proper stability.
We are back to proper stability . So , to your question only, I can very confidently say with half of the quarter gone by, where we can confidently say now that we are, I think, worst is behind us.
Right. So, one question more. We've been plagued with a lot of onetime losses in the last quarter. Last quarter, there was fluctuation in steel prices and revenue loss on equipment coming in. This quarter also, we have now seen these onetime losses in terms of equipment, etc. So , Sir, can we now finally put a close to all these onetime losses on next quarter or are we still expecting some of these new customers.
I think, currency is not in our control, Siddharth. If the Rs. 88.63 tomorrow moves to Rs. 91 or Rs. 90-plus, we are basically helpless in terms of managing currency. It is a global event and currency, if it goes down or goes up, I think we cannot control. And these are all notional losses. Basically, this has to be provided in the books. These equipment, which are like for JV other things, still the equipment have not been put to use, and they are not generating any revenue. But as per accounting standards, we will need to provide for this. But that's the bottom line, how the accounting standards are maintained.
Sir, what I mean to say is have we bought all the footprint that we needed to, so that there is no further transaction of that equipment is taking place because capex is done?
Capex is done , till the equipment is put to use. Any currency, which is being fluctuating, like for a stand-alone side, I can confidently say that we are not importing any more equipment, all capex has been through. But the hit in terms of the JV, which has come, our wheel plant is going to start as per our presentation also, you must have seen we are confident to start operations from March '26 onwards and trial runs to start from January onwards. Q2& H1FY’26 Earnings Conference Call Transcript Page 7 So, post that only we can confidently say that anymore hit is not going to come into the books. But till then, obviously, till that work in progress is there, we will need to continue to take that hit.
Right. Sir, since you guided that already through middle of Q3, we are certainly profitable, like you mentioned. Any hazard a guess on the EBITDA margins? Is that possible for you?
No. I can only tell you we are back to normal, and I think third and fourth quarter is going to be extremely surprising and extremely on the upside of the results.
Wonderful. Sir, a couple of questions in terms of the pledging of shares. So, the promoter basically pledged Rs. 200 crores with Tata Capital. Friends of mine at Jio told me that there was also a conversation at Jio Finance for pledging to take money. So, what was the money used for? Or is being used for?
We have not pledged any shares to Jio Finance. We have only pledged to Tata Capital that is basically to fill up the warrants.
To fill up the warrant. So, the initial Rs. 2,100 warrant or these ones, Chaitanya is getting right now?
Initial Rs. 2,100 warrants, Rs. 50 crores have been already paid and balance like Lalit has said in his opening statement before the year -end, we have pledged the shares at one time. We do not want to continue on a daily basis, but the full amount has been secured and that payment will be made before March.
Okay. Sir, just one last question from my end now. Sir because the inventory issue that we have and the management has done a great job in sorting that out, but sir, are our bankers or anyone else concerned in terms of giving us working capital lines or in funding our inventory or we are facing any financial challenges there?
No. We have not faced any funding challenges or any institutional issues from our bankers.
Just to clarify, we are having Rs. 700 crores to 800 crores lines available in my balance sheet as on date.
Okay. And I really hope that Q3 and Q4 really do bring out dividends for yourself and the shareholders. Q2& H1FY’26 Earnings Conference Call Transcript Page 8
Regarding your hope we're extremely confident that we will come good on this.
Wonderful, that calls for celebration next time we speak on call next quarter.
The next question is from the line of Sunny Gosar from MK Ventures.
My first question is on the debt levels. So, debt levels have substantially shot up as on September '25 to, I think, more than Rs. 2,500 crores. So, can you give some colour on what has led to this sharp increase in the debt?
Sunny, I will answer this because you can see the profit has been muted. So, there are no cash accrual happen in the first 6 months. And that has almost gone up by Rs. 600 crores in the 6 months, that is mainly on account of the capex program companies incurred of Rs. 400 crores, and you can see Rs. 200 crores reduction on account of creditors of the company. So that has led to this level. But debt level is going to sharply recover in H2 with the promoter infusing money, Rs. 150 crores coming back from the income tax and certainly the operating leverage improving on account of improved sales and profitability.
Sure. So as per the cash flow statement, the consolidated capex for H1 was about Rs. 485 crores. So, for the full year FY '26, what is likely to be the level of capex outflow? So basically, what's the incremental outflow in H2? And by March '26, what is the likely debt levels that we should see from the current, say, Rs. 2,500 crores, Rs. 2,550 crores, of gross debt?
So Sunny, Rs. 500 crores to Rs. 600 crores reduction we should expect by March '26 from here.
And this includes the contribution from the warrant money from the promoter?
Between everything, Rs. 500 crores to Rs. 600 crores should go down till March '26.
Got it.
So basically, Lalit wants to say that Rs. 2,400 crores is basically leaving aside that we are close to Rs. 2 ,400 crores of debt and likely Rs. 600 crores of debt will be reduced by financial year-end. Q2& H1FY’26 Earnings Conference Call Transcript Page 9
Got it. And in terms of the capex amount, what is the further outflow in H2 FY '26?
Sunny, I think we have already completed our capex from a little bit on the maintenance capex side and a little bit on the completion of the facility we are commencing. So, it should be less than Rs. 100 crores.
And going forward, like now we are at almost 400,000 tonnes of capacity and utilization levels are reasonably low. So , we have substantial like leeway to grow. So , what should be the outlook in terms of capex for FY '27?
Next year, capex will be negligible, less than Rs. 100 crores of capex. And next year, utilization will move to close to around 85%. And I would be glad to tell you the casting facility, which is going to be entire 45,000 tonnes of capacity, which we have installed and we're going to be up by end of this quarter, the entire capacity of 45,000 tonnes is almost sold out in terms of overall capacity. So, we are going to have an entire utilization of this capacity to the tune of 80% to 85% next year in a mix of railways and domestic and exports. And, like Milesh in his opening statement has said, that in castings we have got a huge traction from Indian Railways. And this huge traction will lead to very high utilization in terms of the casting capacity and realization improving drastically from our casting facility.
Got it. Got it. That is very helpful. And sir, one last question from my side. In terms of your guidance for H2. While we understand some of these new capacities will ramp up substantially, what is the assumption that you are making on the underlying marke ts? Are you expecting them to basically bounce back sharply or remain at the H1 levels because that will also kind of determine what kind of revenue and growth you are able to achieve in the second half of the year?
I think domestic market has really bounced back very sharply post -GST cut. And with the projections whatever, we have till March right now, it is showing a very good traction and I think we will be able to do much better than what market overall grows in terms of with the capacity and with the kind of share of business, we have been able to gain and that is already showing in our Q2 numbers also in terms of our domestic growth. And in terms of exports, U.S. has started and within U.S., the new customer wins, I think in the presentation also we have elaborated that new customer order wins, we have been able to convince customer our marketing has done a good job. And we have been able to pull ahead the Q2& H1FY’26 Earnings Conference Call Transcript Page 10 timings in terms of offtakes, and we have already started shipping material from this quarter onwards for several of our new order books for North America and oil and gas within North America. So, all this taken together, we expect and we are very, very hopeful with half of the quarter already gone by this quarter and the coming quarter, we should be doing extremely well in terms of achieving our top line numbers and achieving a full year guidance growth, which we had given initially.
The next question is from the line of Mitul Shah from DAM Capital.
First question is on margin side, sir, if I look at your presentation, utilization Q-on-Q has dropped from 69% to 60%. So, drop is not very big. So, margin contraction seems to be slightly beyond operating leverage. So, is there any pricing pressure also?
Mitul, I think Lalit in the previous question has already answered. Margins, almost Rs. 25 crores hit has come just due to a notional forex loss which we had to book in terms of our imports and equipment. And in terms of exports, there is no margin hit, but basically, lower exports has affected our margin.
So, then the second question is on the order wins. This other orders you have indicated about 4 to 5 years lifespan, but this railway. So , this Rs. 200 crore as well as Rs. 96 crore, railway and the Rs. 200 crore from the railway casting. Are these executable in the next 1, 1.5 years?
These are all annualized.
Okay. And lastly, on the railway project, Sir, we are about to start the operation in March '26. So, what is further update or any trial runs, or anything is likely to start soon in next 1 or 2 months? Or March '26, we'll start with the trial runs initially and commercial production will start somewhere middle of '27?
January, we are starting trial runs. And we expect and we hope that from March onwards, we start commercial production.
Sir, lastly, considering this current global scenario and U.S. -related challenges, what would be our long-term strategy to diversify this on the non-U.S. export side in terms of the client addition or geography addition?
Milesh, I would want you to answer this question. Q2& H1FY’26 Earnings Conference Call Transcript Page 11
I would like to state that currently, we are already as you see in this quarter, whatever we have won on the order wins, this has all come from the international geographies. This showcases one thing is that we are adding lot of traction from the international market. And at the same time, we are not only securing orders in North America, but we also secured orders from European market. If you go with the H1 total order wins, you would have noticed one thing that with regard to Europe itself, we have already backed a lot of orders to this time and taking into Q1, I think Rs. 927 crores worth of orders have come from Europe itself. And at the same time in North America, like Rs. 307 crore came from this PV segment. So this showcases that the Company is working on the diversification strategy. And currently, we have been able to bag good orders as Mr. Jalan already stated, that we are also able to work in this period, wherein we have been able to develop the samples and PPAP lots all faster so that we can go for a faster launch as this being an alternate purchasing proposal, which we have received from customer. I hope I have answered it.
Next question is from the line of Joseph George from IIFL Capital.
All right. So, 1 clarification. You mentioned that about Rs. 25 crores of one-off impacts because of FX and Mexico losses, etc . were there in the quarter. I want to understand how much of this Rs. 25 crores is in stand- alone and above EBITDA?
So, Joseph, if you look at Rs. 4.82 crores of JV is certainly in the consol and Rs. 3 crores Mexico is also in consol account. The loss on account of tariff on account of forex of Rs. 6 crore is in the stand -alone, and that is above EBITDA.
Understood. So effectively, you're saying approximately Rs. 16 crores to Rs. 17 crores of EBITDA?
Rs. 17 crores standalone EBITDA, yes.
Rs. 16 crores, Rs. 17 crores. Okay. Understood. So that was one. The second thing I wanted to understand was, we have this 25,000 cold forging capacity, which was supposed to be 70% booked by 1 million customers and really there's aluminium forging capacity, which is also booked by a firm order. What is the status of these 2 capacities and the underlying orders? And when should we expect revenue generation? Q2& H1FY’26 Earnings Conference Call Transcript Page 12
Cold forging already has started revenue generation. And I think we are almost at 40% utilization right now. There are bugs, which we are trying to settle down. And I think we are expecting next quarter close to around 60% plus utilization. And going into FY '27, go to around 80%, 85% utilization in the cold forging side, which will be, I think, the peak utilization. And in terms of aluminium forging, our samples, PPAP and everything has been accepted. And from this month onwards, this current month onwards, bulk shipments have already started. And I think we expect the utilization to go to 85%, close to around March or April of next year.
Understood. The last question that I had was, if you look at the order flow announcements in the last, say, 5 or 6 quarters. I'm just reading out some of the numbers, I'm sure you know them. So, in 1Q FY '25, there was a Rs. 1,680 crore new order flow. In 2Q FY '25, it was Rs. 1,500 crore. In 3Q, it was about Rs. 700 crores. And now in the first half, it is Rs. 1,700 crores, Rs. 1,800 crores. So overall, in the last 6 quarters, you've received new orders of some Rs. 6,000 crores to Rs. 7,000 crores. I want to understand when will these orders start generating revenues in aggregate? I don't want to get into individual orders across businesses.
I think, there are parts of orders in this, which are based out of Europe, they are going to start in phases from next year onwards. And I think, if you consolidated tell me of the entire order book, you will be able to see the entire order book getting into production from FY '28 onwards. But already part of the order book has started from this quarter, and that's the reason we are extremely confident to meet our export sales of whatever we did in previous in spite of market being on the slowdown. And then going forward, from Europe and other places, we are looking at starting sales from first quarter of FY '27 and almost by last quarter to reach 100% of this order book getting into sales.
So would it be fair to assume that all these orders aggregating to somewhere between Rs. 6,000 crores to Rs. 7,000 crores. Say in FY '28, we will have an annual revenue generation of, say, approximately Rs. 1,000 crores, would that be a safe number?
Safe number will be close to Rs. 1,000 crores plus to very safely say, from these order books.
The next question is from the line of Sunny Gosar from MK Ventures. Q2& H1FY’26 Earnings Conference Call Transcript Page 13
So basically, what I wanted to understand is we have about with the current expansion, about 400,000 tonnes of capacity between forgings and castings. So, what would be basically the peak utilization or peak volumes that we can achieve out of the current capacity? And what is the peak revenue, which can be generated from this capacity? And my second question is, as the earlier like pre the inventory issue, our margin used to be 20% to 23%. But that had a specific business mix in terms of largely forging. Now with the business mix changing to castings and forgings and some B2C products, which include assemblies, what is the new normalized margins we can assume when we reach a reasonable level of capacity utilization.
So, to answer your question one by one, I think at the peak utilization in terms of revenue, if we have the right product mix, which we presume in calendar year '27 by end, we should be having with the kind of order wins, which we have had. This should be any where with the current capacity reach a revenue between Rs. 6,200 crore to Rs. 6,500 crore, depending on the commodity pricing because commodity pricing is directly linked to the overall top line. In terms of margins, it is extremely safe to say that with the premix of casting and forging and with the kind of growth in terms of B2C axles and all, we may not be able to touch 20% to 23% because that was only for forgings. But in a premix of both the things, we are on the safer side, 17% to 18% margin going forward. Our aspirational growth still remains to go above 20% plus. But I think it will take some more quarters or year , because kind of value add, we are also introducing in the system. We are hoping that much ahead of our calculated time, we will be able to come to those margins also. But very safely, we can say that in a premix of casting and forging, 17% to 18% margin, we are going to get back to those figures very soon.
The next question is from the line of Saket Saurabh from Sagari Capital.
So, sir, I think I understand that Q2 had a lot of tariff -related disruptions. But you had guided that based on Q1 call led by Q4, the stand -alone margin might start getting back to the 20%-odd level. Now in the updated scheme of things, when do you see that those stand -alone margins of 20% coming up? Is it now Q1 or after '27?
In stand -alone, we still see that by Q4, basically, now we have 2 businesses, castings and forgings. Like in my previous answer, I have said at a blended basis, we're looking at 17% to 18% margin. On a stand-alone Q2& H1FY’26 Earnings Conference Call Transcript Page 14 basis at RKFL we still are optimistic that we'll be able to come back to those margins by last quarter or maybe by the first quarter.
Okay. Another point is, so one of our listed peers, Bharat Forge said that let's see this entire North America thing seems to be right now too uncertain. But we are confident that we would be back on growth path. I think tariff was more of a disruption rather than demand disruptor. Is that a fair understanding?
No. I think tariff has nothing to do related with that. Tariff has disrupted demand also in North America. But at RKFL, because of our new order wins and new customer wins over there, we will be able to mitigate the demand disruption in our existing customer with the addition of new customers, wherein we will be able to pull back all those dollars, which we are losing in our current customers because of the demand issue from the new customers.
Okay. Fair enough, sir. Now another question would be, are we say, I think one of the focus areas of the management has been to diversify away from both auto as well as North America and Europe, you already talked about you are making steady headway. So, any colour on, say, getting into defence or such kind of engineering settings where I think offerings like ours have reasonable demand. So, any thoughts on that, sir?
We have actually, I think, reasonably done well in terms of our railway. And I think we are going to ride this passenger vehicle and railway boom, and we are very focused right now in improving our railway output and improving our penetration within the railways. And I think that is a huge sector to bring in a lot of traction and new opportunities for us. In our opening call, our marketing head also has elaborated the kind of traction both in casting and in assemblies we have had from railways. And we believe that there is going to be a significant opportunity for us going into next year and year beyond that. So, we would like to first encash that opportunity on a stand-alone basis plus the wheel project, which is going to come into production next year. We are looking at almost 40,000 wheels in FY '27 coming from the joint venture. So obviously, taken together, we are looking at a big uplift from railways itself into FY '27. So, I think our basket is full, we would like to first move one by one, while we will keep on encashing this opportunity and grow in railways. Defence is also a likelihood going forward, but we are not immediately working anything big on defence to make investors aware. I Q2& H1FY’26 Earnings Conference Call Transcript Page 15 think at the right opportune time post we are done with railways in terms of our growth, we would like to focus on defence.
I think the railway wheels setup that we are coming up, say, and you're projecting around 40,000 wheels. So, what's the revenue upt ick that we would expect from that JV? And what kind of margins? Would they be above RKFL stand-alone or the blended 17%, 18%, what kind of margins that we are looking at the JV level, of course, you have I'm not looking at RKFL share right now, but more a JV what's the top line and the bottom line?
80%, 85% utilization, which we expect to have in FY '28. We are looking at almost Rs. 1,600 crore to Rs. 1,700 crore revenue from that operation and that will be a 17% to 18% opportunity for us in terms of EBITDA margins.
And what kind of utilization you're expecting for FY '27, sir?
FY '27, we are targeting only 40,000 wheels, which is going to be close to around 30% of the utilization.
As that was the last question for today. I would now hand the conference over to the management for the closing comments. Over to you, sir.
Thank you. We would like to thank all for taking out time to join our earnings call. We hope we have been able to answer and address all your queries. For any further information kindly get in touch with us or with CDR India. On behalf of Ramkrishna Forgings Limited, we wish you all a good week ahead. We look forward to interacting again in the next quarter. Thank you very much for talking with us again. Thank you.
Thank you. On behalf of IIFL Capital Securities Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.
This is a transcript and may contain transcription errors. Certain statements made or discussed on this call may be forward looking in nature and must be viewed in conjunction with the risks and uncertainties that the company faces. The company does not undertake to update these forward-looking statements publicly. Please also note that this document has been edited without changing much of the content, to enhance the clarity of the discussion. No unpublished price sensitive information was shared/discussed on the call.