Ramkrishna Forgings Limited

FY2024 Q1

2024-07-24 Transcript PDF
Moderator

Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Th e first question is from the line of Mumuksh Mandlesha from Anand Rathi. Please go ahead sir.

Yes. Thank you so much for the opportunity. Sir, I just want to understand the rationale for this acquisition of the Resortes Libertad Mexico company. Just want to understand what's the reason behind that acquisition, sir?

Naresh Jalan

We will acquire this company to start up in Mexico. This company has no business and help to set up a legal entity in Mexico for us it would have taken us 1 year time and to start business. So, we have acquired a legal entity registered in Mexico who has no manufacturing operations right now. So basically you may have seen that acquiring this, we have changed the name also of this entity and now we will start our Mexico operations which we had informed the investors in last year, in this entity.

Got it, sir. Sir, on the order book, congrats on a strong order book for this quarter, is it possible to share sir what would be the annual order book that would get executed say by FY '26 or '27, post this addition sir?

Okay. No, I mean, let's say cumulatively sir in the past year also, any cumulative number you would have, sir?

Naresh Jalan

No, I -- we would not -- these are basically the new orders which we have got in this quarter. Previous -- past is already on stream and is already converted in businesses and you will be able to see this in coming quarters in terms of incremental tonnages.

Got it, sir. Sir coming on the results sir domestic revenue this quarter was very muted broadly in line with th e underlying industry. We didn't see much outperformance. Is there any mix impact like a lower tonnage segment has grown more than the higher tonnage? Why is...

Naresh Jalan

No, I think basically there is a small dip in the overall revenue which you see in the domestic is a mix of basically lower offtake as well as raw material price decrease which has happened in the domestic market.

Okay. And, sir on the one-off of INR 175 Million which you mentioned in the presentation what is this one-off, sir?

Naresh Jalan

Lalit?

Lalit Kumar Khetan

Yes. So, that INR 17.5 Crores one-off expenditure is basically a contribution to a party for elections.

Okay. A nd this quarter gross margin has seen improvement while the broadly export and domestic revenue was Q -on-Q broadly unchanged in the mix-wise what could have led the improvement, sir?

Lalit Kumar Khetan

Well, you can see the price realization on the export side if you see the export realization has improved that has led to this kind of improvement.

And this price realization basically the price hike which you've got?

Naresh Jalan

It is a mix of price hike as well as it is a mix of new order wins which we have started converting into businesses. Mumuksh Mandlesha Yes. That’s all from my side. Thank you so much for this.

Moderator

Thank you sir. The next question is from the line of Mitul Shah from DAM Capital. Please go ahead sir.

DAM Capital

Yes sir. Thank you for the opportunity. Sir, my first question is on the subsidiary. It seems that there is a decent margin improvement on Q -on-Q basis. So can you give more details on this? And if you can give subsidiary wise, few key numbers?

Lalit Kumar Khetan

So Mitul coming to that we just want to update you that we have started operations in JMT Auto and the name of JMT Auto has been changed to Ramkrishna Casting Solutions Limited. So that company has started operation. We have done an improvement in terms of margin in Multitech also and the operations in ACIL is also being ramped up. So all the three contributed to this improvement in margin. And I can say the marginal improvement from all the subsidiaries has led to this kind of improvement in the consolidated numbers.

DAM Capital

So it is the operational efficiency kind of thing or there is a raw material benefit also part of this?

Naresh Jalan

No, it is only operational efficiency.

Naresh Jalan

And, Mitul, just to update you it is just a start. I think we had -- when we acquired these companies also we had said that it is a start of a new journey for us. And going forward with the experience we carry and with the team we have it will be a continu ous improvement in the subsidiaries in terms of margin improvements. And you -- and in the future also you will see the same trajectory being followed and there is lot of headroom in terms of overall margin expansion in the subsidiaries.

DAM Capital

Okay. Sir one clarification this contribution to a party related amount is sitting in the other expense, right?

Lalit Kumar Khetan

Yes Mitul that is in other expense.

DAM Capital

Okay. Sir second question is on the railway side. What is the status on this Vande Bharat order which earlier you highlighted about INR 270 Crores executed over '25 and '26? And any further update on that in terms of potential in this year getting more orders?

Naresh Jalan

No, I think, in terms of Vande Bharat it has just started. I think we have already started making protos. And in the coming quarter we are going to submit the protos for validation. And from then what is the time -- whatever time it takes for validation an d we have -- like we have said in 20 -- next year and the following year we have to complete this order.

DAM Capital

So this INR270 crores would be in FY '26 and FY '27?

Naresh Jalan

Yes. And it will be in line with whatever Vande Bharat are made. But this -- once this validation of bogie happens it will open also new opportunities for us directly into the Indian Railways. This is a private sector order which we have got. But the - once the validation and our design is approved it will open also an opportunity after 6 months in current railway manufacturing of the Vande Bharat. And other private sector orders also which government is in process of going forward.

DAM Capital

Sir which are these components? Can you highlight a few?

DAM Capital

Okay. Great, sir. Lastly on sir what is update on this Ramkrishna Titagarh JV and when we are expecting first product to come out operation to begin and what can be the first year revenue potential?

Naresh Jalan

So I think right now it is moving as per our vision. And I think we look at FY '26 last quarter to be the first batch of productions for railway validation to start rolling out and it is on track and on time.

DAM Capital

Yes sir. Thanks a lot and all the best.

Moderator

Thank you sir. The next question is from the line of Rohit Singh from Nest Analytics Advisory. Please go ahead.

Nest Analytics Advisory

Thank you for the opportunity. M y question on the demand outlook for the current year and what is the volume guidance for FY '25?

Naresh Jalan

No, I think in terms of demand we still stand by our commitment of 15% to 20% volume growth year-to-year. So FY '24 to FY '25 we feel that we will be able to achieve and do better than what we have predicted it.

Moderator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Akhil Gulecha from Pkeday Family Office. Please go ahead.

Pkeday Family Office

So my question is a bit generic. So pardon me for that. The last few years, a major growth has come from exports. So can you please explain very specifically like why have all of these export orders come to India and why have they specifically come to us Ramkrishna Forgings? What are we doing that is so different than our competitors in India or globally?

Naresh Jalan

I think I cannot answer your question why the customers are coming to India. I think what we can say that we have set up a world -class facility and we are marketing that accordingly in the global world and the customer who are looking for diversification o r introducing world -class technology are buying products from us.

Pkeday Family Office

Okay. Understood. So, is there anything specific b ecause the growth has come recently in the last few years as opposed to earlier on. So, anything that has changed significantly? Is it the high energy prices globally? Is that why we are gaining market share one of the reasons?

Naresh Jalan

No, I think it has not come only in the last year. If you see last 4 to 5 years we are constantly growing in terms of exports. And we continue -- I think we are thriving to continue to do that in next of the years.

Pkeday Family Office

Okay. Because even in domestically when I compare you to other listed players in the similar industry, you have grown much faster than all of them. So there is something that you are doing right? So I'm just trying to understand other than world-class facility or good process, what is it that you're doing right that others aren't able to replicate?

Naresh Jalan

I cannot tell you why others cannot. But I can tell you, it means that we are doing good marketing and good -- we are good suppliers.

Pkeday Family Office

Okay. So is there anything else in this industry which gives a significant competitive advantage or is it just the process and efficiency that is better?

Naresh Jalan

Yes, it is only a question of process and efficiency and a good marketing team.

Pkeday Family Office

Okay. Is there a significant pricing difference as well or is that similar across most players?

Naresh Jalan

I'll not comment on anybody's pricing, sir, please. I think I would rather stick to what I am doing and what we can do.

Pkeday Family Office

Okay. Understood. That's it from my side.

Moderator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Balasubramanian from Arihant Capital. Please go ahead.

Balasubramanian

Good evening sir and thank you so much for taking my question. Sir how much margin growth in this quarter witnessed overall and on the Ramkrishna Titagarh side earlier the project cost is around INR 1,250 Crores, INR 1,300 Crores in that range. Is there any escalations in that project cost? These are my first question?

Lalit Kumar Khetan

So right now what we are looking at the project cost of the Ramkrishna Titagarh side the project is around INR 1,800 Crores right now. So, the project cost is INR 1,800 Crores.

Balasubramanian

Okay, sir. Sir, on the margin side, sir?

Lalit Kumar Khetan

Margin side in terms of?

Balasubramanian

The overall margin growth in this quarter b ecause last time we have guided 15% to 20% kind of volume growth for FY '25. So are we in the track?

Lalit Kumar Khetan

Yes. We are very much on the track for achieving the 15% to 20% volume growth for the FY '25.

Balasubramanian

Okay, sir. And sir on the export side we are targeting 50-50 kind of mix on domestic and exports. And I just want to understand which are the regions we are targeting whether in Europe, Asia or U.S.? Like, what kind of opportunities we have, if you could share like an approximate mix region-wise?

Naresh Jalan

No, I think, we are not targeting any specific region. We are marketing around the globe, wherever OEMs are there and wherever forging is required.

Naresh Jalan

I'm unable to understand your question.

Balasubramanian A.

Sir, last quarter, we had some impact because of Red Sea on the delayed shipments around INR 20 Crores kind of impact?

Naresh Jalan

No, the impact was -- I think impact was INR 20 Crores and I think still the impact remains similar in the similar range and that has become a regular precedent. I think Red Sea issue unless the war stops, I think there is nothing which can be done. So, it has become a regular course of business right no w. So, INR20 Crores to INR 25 Crores will remain always in mid -sea or material -- so, that is the kind of capacity or inventory we have built in the system.

Balasubramanian A.

Got it, sir. Sir, like we're also in the discussion with customers to rationalize 10% to 15%. It is done or we are still in the discussion?

Naresh Jalan

We are still in the discussion.

Moderator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Vidrum Mehta from ASK Investment Managers. Please go ahead.

ASK Investment Managers

Just want to understand on the demand front...

Naresh Jalan

Your voice is not there. Can you speak a little loud, please? We cannot hear you.

ASK Investment Managers

Sir, just wanted to understand on the demand front; so for Q1, our volume growth is 1%. For FY '25, we are guiding for a volume growth of 15% to 20%. So, what is helping us remain confident that for the remaining 9 months? Or if you can help us understand what is the visibility in terms of volume growth, which we can see in the remaining 9 months?

Naresh Jalan

So, if you are saying it is 1%, I think you are comparing quarter -on-quarter. So, basically, for the full year basis may, I can -- we are very confident and we have the visibility of the complete order book as well as offtakes from the customer on a steady flow basis, we are seeing that happening. And that is the reason we are confident of achieving 15% to 20% volume growth.

ASK Investment Managers

So, is it because of the new order book, we remain confident of achieving this volume growth?

Naresh Jalan

Past order wins have already started showing traction in terms of supplies. And we are very confident that overall, whatever volumes have been projected on those new orders are starting to show results. So, we are very confident that we will be able to meet expectation and do better than what we are estimating in terms of 15% to 20% volume growth.

ASK Investment Managers

Okay. And also, sir, if I look at the domestic revenue breakup. So, domestic market revenue is down 3%. And you alluded to the fact that it is partly attributable to the raw material price decrease and as well as lower offtake in your opening remarks. But in that case, so should we assume a lower realization per tonne?

ASK Investment Managers

No. So, I am just asking from a full year point of view. So, for FY '25.

Naresh Jalan

No, I think -- see, raw material prices is completely pass on for us. And basically, we cannot comment how the market will shape up into coming quarters. And in India steel prices is completely not in sync with the global market. It is completely supply and demand curve. If the demand is -- in domestic market is higher in the coming quarters, we may see increase also. So, in that case realization may go up also. So currently, we don't see -- we cannot comment on what steel pricing is going to be there in India in coming quarters.

ASK Investment Managers

So, 15% to 20% growth is broadly what we are asking or we are estimating is with respect to volume and that should flow to revenue that is what is a fair assumption?

Naresh Jalan

Yes, 15% to 20% in terms of volume. Basically whatever raw material price is there plus the conversion is going to flow into the revenue.

ASK Investment Managers

Okay. And sir, can you help us subsidiary revenue for Multitech and ACIL for this quarter?

Lalit Kumar Khetan

Coming to the Multitech it's about INR 86 C rores and for ACIL it's about INR17 Crores of the revenue for the quarter.

ASK Investment Managers

INR 86 Crores and INR 17 Crores?

Lalit Kumar Khetan

Yes.

ASK Investment Managers

Yes. So, sir, if I look at the full year FY '24 Multitech revenue, I guess it reported INR 360-odd Crores, correct?

Lalit Kumar Khetan

INR 350-odd Crores, yes.

ASK Investment Managers

So, are we seeing any signs of improvement? Because the run rate of INR 85 Crores, INR 90 Crores is broadly maintained in Q1 as well?

Naresh Jalan

So, I think this is just the first quarter. And, as you know, first quarter because of heat and everything extreme summer the casting production goes down. I think you will be able to see significant changes in coming quarters.

ASK Investment Managers

Sir, why I am asking is, basically because in the analyst meet, we had shared our vision for '25 and '26, wherein the revenue from Multitech was significantly higher. So, are we in that trajectory in terms of...

Naresh Jalan

We still maintain the same.

ASK Investment Managers

Okay. And sir, if you could just repeat once again the order inflow, which you shared in your opening remarks it would be really helpful?

Milesh Gandhi

Yes. So, good evening. I wanted to convey that in this quarter there has been a good order inflow with regard to the company's forward plan. We have been able to have good order wins across the globe not only in India and also overseas and both in auto and non-auto segments. To be specific the order inflow are to be executed over a period of 4 years except railways, where it is as per contract value. Against the current order flow that we have received in this quarter, it is worth INR 1,679 Crores, in which North America constitutes to around INR 526 Crores order inflow wherein it comes from the CV segment is around INR 201 Crores from the light vehicle segment it is INR 109 Crores and also from the EV in the auto side it is worth INR 16 Crores. And we have had order books inflows from non -auto segment for INR 200 Crores that mainly comes from the mining, earthmoving and other segments. Moving forward with Europe, we had an order inflow of around INR 287 Crores mainly coming from the CV side and from EV we had an order flow of about INR 3 Crores. From the rest of the world, we find around INR 140 Crores order flow from the CV market. And to mention about India. In India, we had an order flow of around INR 442 Crores in which CV is worth INR 362 Crores and non-auto is around INR 80 Crores. That is mainly from the farm equipment and other segments. Lastly, with regard to railways, we are finding a good order flow too. And in this, we have an order flow around INR 284 Crores. That is with regard to the undercarriage and other items that we supply to the railways. Thank you from my end.

Moderator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Mitul Shah from DAM Capital. Please go ahead.

DAM Capital

Sir, my question is again, on the average realization, wherein we are indicating a decline. But in export side it has gone up. That is the first question. And second, sir, in terms of Q -on-Q, what is the direction for Q2? Can we expect some further decline in average realization or what could be the quantum?

Naresh Jalan

No, in terms of exports, I think, in terms of product mix change and addition of new customers, wherein order announcements had been made in previous years have started showing traction and that is the reason realization in exports have improved. In terms of domestic, seeing the current trend, what is available right now, we don't expect any reduction in terms of realization. But we never know what is going to happen with the steel market. And as of now, when we speak I don't think any downside risk is there to realization for the quarter.

DAM Capital

That means in export also, we have similar pass -through for all the clients or that is a mix of few?

Naresh Jalan

For raw material in exports are not India -centric. It is basically in terms of exports indexes. In terms of North America, we follow North American index and for Europe, we follow European index. So based on those indexes, we don't see a major dip in terms of any realization happening in coming -- in current quarter.

DAM Capital

Okay. Sir, considering the further investment required in the subsidiaries, what is the balance sheet situation at the end of first quarter in terms of net and gross debt? And how much investment we expect for next 3 quarters -- balance 3 quarter during th e financial year in subsidiaries?

Lalit Kumar Khetan

So, considering, Mitul, the gross debt and net debt for the quarter if you look at it is a little bit elevated by almost INR 100 Crores on the consol basis due to the investment made in the subsidiaries. And we have already shared earlier also the debt levels will remain at the level what we are in the FY '24 in the full year by the end of full year. So, it will be more or less on the same level what we ended in FY'24.

DAM Capital

And what will be full year investment and capex for '25?

Lalit Khetan

So, we have already guided, if you remember, our last quarters, we have -- about INR 500 Crores will be invested in RKFL standalone in terms of capex. Apart from that, about INR 135 Crores-odd in the subsidia ry, and there will be about INR 100-odd-Crores investment in the Ramkrishna Titagarh joint venture project by way of investment that we have already guided and we will continue to stand by those numbers.

Lalit Kumar Khetan

No change in that, yes.

Moderator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Chirag Shah from White Pine Investment Management Private Limited. Please go ahead.

White Pine Investment Management Private Limited

So sir, 2 questions. So , one basic housekeeping question. So, in consolidated, we have a line item called cost of services. If you can just indicate what exactly it is? And does it move in line with your raw material costs or there is some lead/lag over there? And it pertains to what part of the business?

Lalit Kumar Khetan

So you very well know that we have an hospitality business.

White Pine Investment Management Private Limited

Yes.

Lalit Kumar Khetan

That’s why we have cost of services as line item in consolidated financials.

White Pine Investment Management Private Limited

Okay. So I thought it is related to some services that you give in the export market, great. Sir, second question is just an update on how should we think about the ramp -up of the various subsidiaries. We are in the ramp-up phase and you have given an guidance earlier, I'm aware of that. But incrementally, how should one look at the ramp -up, at least from next 2 to 4 quarters perspective? Because...

White Pine Investment Management Private Limited

And sir, one last question, sir. On the railway side, or maybe even off -highway, if you want to expand? Is there any new product or anything that you are working or which is in advanced stage of approval or validation kind of a thing? If you would like to share, how are you looking to further expand our product bouquet?

Naresh Jalan

No, I think, we have nothing to share in this. As a company, we have a policy to continue to work on products and new customers. So, I think as and when we have to add anything, we would usually come back to.

White Pine Investment Management Private Limited

Okay, sir. So, on the margin side, on the subsidiary level margins, it is purely linked to the ramp- up, right? The operating leverage plus efficiency will be reflected as and when revenue scales up. That is the right way to look at?

Naresh Jalan

It is already showing traction, I think, for the quarter itself, we have 23%-plus margin, basically operational efficiencies and cost reductions, whatever is going on, I think it's already showing traction in the balance sheet and it will continue to be showing going forward also.

White Pine Investment Management Private Limited

Thank you, sir, and all the best.

Moderator

Thank you, sir. The next question is from the line of Ankur Poddar from Svan Investments. Please go ahead.

Svan Investments

Sir, I have one question regarding the employee cost for the stand -alone business. So, we have seen almost 18% Y-o-Y increase in the employee cost, and on a Q -on-Q basis also, there is a 6%, 7% increase. So any -- similar to what you have mentioned that in other expenses, there is some extraordinary. So, is there any -- some one-offs sitting here, and what is the trajectory we should assume going forward?

Lalit Kumar Khetan

So coming to the employee benefit expenses, if you're looking on quarter-on-quarter increase is about INR 3 Crores increase, Ankur. So that's mainly on account of the pay -for-performance we pay to our employees, due to that, this increase is there. And we've already said there is a one-off expenses in the other expenses. That's why the elevation in other expenses.

Svan Investments

Okay. But there is Y-o-Y that is around 18% increase from INR 44-odd Crores in the last year to almost INR 52 Crores. So, that is one. And also in other expenses INR 126 Crores last year to INR 200 Crores. So you said INR 17 Crores was other expenses, was exceptional item. Apart from that, there is also other expense seems to be elevated a bit. So, can we throw some light there what strategy we can assume going forward here?

Lalit Kumar Khetan

So, to be specific there, if you look at that, there is a growth in volume and see. Our store space and processing charges also are part of this other expenses, and there has been increase in both. That is a significant increase during the year on the stores and processing charges. And then you can see the increase in shipping costs. When you are looking at Q1 FY'24 versus Q1 FY '25, there is an INR 17 Crores increase in terms of shipping costs, INR17.5 crores at one-time cost and other on the stores and processing. All these combined is the increase of INR 75 Crores, if you look at Q1 versus Q1 year-on-year.

Svan Investments

Okay. Sir, how are you seeing – in the Balance Sheet what is currently the working capital cycle? And how are you seeing this freight rate moving ahead in the second half of the year? Freight rate in terms of shipping rate, I'm trying to say?

Lalit Kumar Khetan

So, shipping costs are right now hardened already and it's not softening so far. I think it has a lot to do with the Red Sea crisis and the ship movement. So it depends upon that. So, we don't know where we will at the end of year on the shipping cost side. But what was the another part of your question?

Lalit Kumar Khetan

Working capital is around 90 days. Net working capital is around 90 days, and that will continue to remain at 90 days cycle.

Svan Investments

Okay. And sir, what would be the roughly cash balance in the balance sheet?

Lalit Kumar Khetan

So, we do not carry any cash balance, maybe INR 20 Crores to INR 25 Crores kind of thing in the collection, otherwise, right now, we don't have a cash balance. We have a lot of unutilized balance in terms of bank lines. So, we keep our bank lines unutilized rather than keeping cash on the balance sheet.

Svan Investments

Thank you so much, sir. And all the best.

Moderator

Thank you. The next question is from Atul from ULJK Financial Services. Please go ahead.

Atul

So, my question might be repeated. I would like to understand, we have reported a 3% decline on Y-o-Y basis in domestic revenues. So, what were the reasons behind this decline? That would be helpful.

Naresh Jalan

I think we have already explained in the call. The reason is raw material price decrease as well as there has been a lower offtake from the customer. Both have basically added to the 3% decline in domestic output.

Atul

Okay. Yes, sir. And my second question is on our inorganic strategy, which you are following, sir. So, so far, this strategy has been working quite well for us. So in coming time, are we looking for any more acquisitions, if you could put light on that?

Naresh Jalan

As a company, as a policy, we are always looking for opportunities wherein we can incrementally grow. So, as of now, we don't have anything in pipeline. As and when we have anything, we will surely come back to you.

Moderator

The next question is from the line of Balasubramanian. Please go ahead.

Lalit Kumar Khetan

So I think your question is related to Multitech Auto, so Multitech Auto, see, what we have guided in terms of growth, revenue growth, the guidance remains the same, the 15% to 20% growth in terms of Multitech Auto also. Right now, we are currently operating at around 16% plus EBITDA margin, and there will be a further improvement of 100 basis points to 200 basis points in EBITDA in Multitech Auto going forward.

Moderator

As there are no further questions from the participants, I now hand the conference to management for closing comments.

Rajesh Mundhra

Thank you. I take this opportunity to thank everyone for joining the call. I hope we have been able to answer and address all your queries. For any further information, kindly get in touch with us or our investor relationship advisers. Thank you very much for sparing your time and joining our call. Thank you.

Moderator

On behalf of Nuvama Wealth Management, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines. ------------xxxxx-------------