Rail Vikas Nigam Limited

FY2026 Q2

2025-11-12 Transcript PDF
Moderator

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. The first question is from the line of Rajagopal an Individual Investor. Please go ahead.

Rajagopal

Hello Sir, you mentioned -- you said that the total order book is INR90,000 crores, which comprises legacy orders of INR43,000 crores and balance INR46,000 crores. Is that correct, the current order book?

Management

Yes, Current order book -- you heard rightly, the order book from our legacy railway projects is of order of around INR43,000 crores and the projects, which we have won through bidding in various sectors is around INR46,000 crores. So around it INR89,000 crores something, roughly INR90,000 crores because some of the projects RVNL is in process of regularly acquiring orders. Recently also, we acquired 2 orders. So this is a dynamic figure, but roughly it is in this order only.

Rajagopal

This is as of September 30 or as of today?

Management

It is on September -- as on September 30.

Rajagopal

Thank you!

Moderator

The next question is from the line of Shubham Shelar from Antique Stock Broking Limited.

Antique Stock Broking Limited

Sir, so my question is regarding the order book. So sir, can you provide sector-wise order book breakup for your different segments?

Management

Yes. You are concerned about the orders, which are from the legacy railway projects or orders which are from?

Antique Stock Broking Limited

From different segments, railway...

Management

Yes. So as far as our orders, which we have won through the market bidding, our -- roughly 33% contribution is still from the railway projects. They are maybe in the civil engineering sector, electrical or signalling. They are in various parts of the country. Then the second largest component is from the metro sector. Metro sector comprises of around our 22% order books and road sector order book is around 10%. Our 12% order book is from basically BharatNet project, which is one of our largest and flagship projects. And around 10% order is from our share in the Vande Bharat manufacturing. This is largely bifurcation of our orders, which are currently with us.

Antique Stock Broking Limited

Okay, sir. And sir, what was the order inflow in this quarter? Order inflow...

Management

Order inflows? The total orders in the last quarter, we have received the order of INR852 crores in the last quarter. And in the last 6 months, we have got the order of INR2,000 crores.

Antique Stock Broking Limited

Okay, sir. And sir, regarding Vande Bharat project, the execution has started?

Management

The Vande Bharat project, the prototype -- the scheme of things is like that. The designs, etc., is in various stages of approval, and we have started the mock up and the first prototype scheme is that first two prototypes will be produced. They will be tested and then the regular production will start. And the first prototype as per the scheme is -- will be coming in June '26. And the second prototype will be coming in August '26. And when these prototypes are tested and certified for further production in the balance period of 26-27, 12 regular rates will be produced, followed by 25 rates every year in the next 5 years. So the total production cycle is of 6 years.

Antique Stock Broking Limited

Okay, sir. And sir, O&M part is also included in, sir?

Management

O&M part is for the next 35 years. O&M part, we'll start basically simultaneously because when we produce the first 2 prototypes and 12 rates in financial year 26-27, simultaneously their O&M will also start. For that Vande Bharat maintenance sets are part of this scheme. They are also being upgraded to receive these Vande Bharat train sets for maintenance.

Antique Stock Broking Limited

Okay, sir. And sir, one last question regarding EBITDA margins. So last year, we were making around 4% to 5% margin. But this year, first half, the margins are actually impacted a little bit. So what is the reason for that?

Management

Basically, in this year's turnover, there is almost 30% turnover has come from the bidding projects. Yes. In legacy projects, we have very good margins. But in projects we have owned through competitive bidding, the margins are slightly lower, which we are trying to improve in next quarter. We are basically working on the designs. We are working on the standardization processes, different type of processes. So in future, they are going to give good results. But yes, the margins are lower because of the bidding projects...

Antique Stock Broking Limited

Yes. And sir, one last question regarding what would be the guidance of revenue for this year?

Management

Yes. The revenue guidance, which was given in the start of the year, we still maintain that guidance. And the quarter 2 results are quite encouraging as far as the turnover is concerned. And roughly, we are in the same range as the last year H1. And this is the main working season now the next 4-5 months, they will be giving of some revenue, which will be accelerated at much faster pace. And so we maintain the revenue guidance of around INR21,000 crores to INR22,000 crores for this financial year.

Antique Stock Broking Limited

Thank you sir for answering all my questions.

Moderator

The next question is from the line of Abhishek Kumar Leekha from Neste Wealth LLP.

Abhishek Leekha

Just want to understand how can we have more value-added revenue line, which can have higher EBITDA lines in future because the current EBITDA line is just not very adequate?

Management

Yes. The present revenue line and growth of the company is aligned to the larger ecosystem of infrastructure projects, wherein in line with government policy, wherein direct combination work for infrastructure has been prohibited from indirectly in order to PSU. So we are aligning our business strategies and developing our product profile in a manner that it goes beyond railway projects and broadly, it is aligned to that. So if you see the numbers, it is reflecting that trend, even if the revenue from operations remain the same, the mix has changed and it is aligned to the industry standards in general. So going forward, we are confident of maintaining the EBITDA line for the best of the industry standards as well as it will be as per our guidance measures.

Moderator

The next question is from the line of Bharani V. from Avendus Spark.

Sir, I just missed this number. What was our order inflow for the first half of this year?

Management

First half? The order inflow for this financial year in the H1 is around INR2,000 crores. And it is having a mix of every sector, be it electrical, railways, metro or in the signalling also, we have won contracts basically from the railway sector for upgradation of signalling systems.

Bharani V.

Okay. And what will be our expectation for order inflow for the full year in FY '26?

Management

'26, okay? Actually, the order inflow is very much dependent on the competition in the market, but we are quite hopeful. We hope to bid for around -- in the current financial year, our bidding will be in the range of around INR75,000 crores to INR80,000 crores. And considering our success rate of 10% to 12%, we hope that the order inflow for this year is likely to touch around INR8,000 crores to INR10,000 crores.

Bharani V.

Okay. And what was this full year order inflow in FY '25?

Management

'24-'25, you are talking about? Yes. The last year was because we had some big order wins in the last financial year, the net order flow for the last year was around INR18,000 crores.

Bharani V.

Okay. And what would be our EBITDA margins in full year and for also FY '27?

Management

Please, can you repeat the question?

Bharani V.

What would be your EBITDA margin expectation for this FY '26 full year and also for FY '27?

Bharani V.

Okay. And if I see our cash flow generation for the first half, I see operating cash flow has turned negative for the first half. There is a large negative cash outflow in the line item called other financial assets. What is the nature of this cash outflow?

Management

Unbilled revenues. See, basically, this is on account of reduction in unbilled revenue.

Bharani V.

Okay. So this is -- sorry, I didn't hear you properly.

Management

Yes. At each reporting date, we calculate the contracts for which the project has been made, but the invoice has not been raised to client. So that varies from quarter-to-quarter. So this current asset difference is only mainly on account of that only.

Bharani V.

Okay. So what would be the net working capital days at the end of September like core net working, which is receivable days plus inventory days, less payable days?

Management

Basically, payments are linked to milestones and on completion of each milestone there will be the payment. So now the working season has started. Actually, the rainy season was a lead period for construction business. And now the construction has started in full swing, and we are hopeful that the revenue -- this cash flow will improve from 15th of December.

Bharani V.

So with a large order book of around INR90,000 crores, what is the average execution period for this INR90,000 crores? Can we expect this to be executed over the next 3 years or 2 years? How is it?

Management

Yes, I'll tell you, these projects are of varied nature. Some of the projects, they will be continuing for the next 3 to 4 years. Some of the projects are shorter gestation period projects. They will be completing in next 1 year or next 2 years' time also. So average, you can consider this order book considering our growth trajectory is adequate for the next 4 years' time.

Bharani V.

Okay. So then the growth expected in execution in FY '27 will also be, say, around 10%?

Management

Yes. We hope to maintain this in the coming financial years. And obviously, if company has to grow, this growth trajectory has to be maintained. If we -- in this financial year, we will be closing our revenue of around INR22,000 crores to INR20,000 crores. So certainly, we will make an effort to increase it by at least 10% in the financial year 26-27. In addition to that, we are getting a new project also. And some of the projects has a lesser gestation period. So getting the new order and executing them in a shorter period will also give me the momentum and better turnover of the company. So getting the -- completing the INR90,000 crores order book, getting in new orders and getting them completed in a faster way is also the motto of the company. So this order book and it will keep on changing. We will keep on performing and giving the engineering value to our projects, monitoring and getting the better -- much better output and outlook to the company. This is our aim for the future.

Moderator

The next question is from the line of Vishal Periwal from Antique Stock Broking Limited.

Antique Stock Broking Limited

Yes, sorry, sir. So I was saying, sir, in terms of our -- previously, the historical tax rate has been in the range of 25-odd percent. This time, we are seeing a line item of deferred tax also. So how do you see and what is the reason of this deferred tax? Will this be a continuous phenomena and anything that you can provide?

Management

Yes. It's a very pertinent question. First thing first, no, it's not a continuous phenomena. We don't expect any further increase in the deferred tax. On each quarter end, this is basically a timing difference thing, a timing difference between the income tax and what has been done in the company. So there was issue realize that this period is -- it coincides with our tax audit. Soduring the tax audit, we realized that one of our assumptions needs to be updated, and that has been done. And moreover, if you see deferred tax more of zero effect on the company because it gets liquidated in the future period. But to your question very specific, no, we don't see any outstanding debt. This is the maximum that we expect, as of now, whatever the visibility is there for us.

Antique Stock Broking Limited

Okay. Sure, sir. And I think though you did clarify on the margin front. I think you did allude that the mix of the order book is changing toward competitive bidding and that is the reason like margins are lower. So is that fair to understand the earlier margins of 5.5%-6% EBITDA margin that we are making, probably the trajectory will be in the range of -- now will be in the range of 4% to 5%. So will that be a fair understanding to have as directionally?

Management

Yes. As per the order mix, the legacy projects, which were on a fixed composite management fee model, there, it was -- the margins can be predictable. But in case of the projects, which we have won through bidding, market bidding, the margins varies across the sector. Some of the sectors having a better margins and the larger projects, they are on somewhat not so good margins. But now we are changing our strategy also. We are focusing on projects where the margins are better, and we are focusing towards the projects which are on HAM model or other things where the competition is not so high. And simultaneously, we'll be focusing on projects abroad also where the margins are certainly better as compared to the domestic projects. In line with the industry standards, the established infrastructure giants, they derive at least 50% of their revenue from the global operations. So we hope to substantially improve on our global operations in the coming financial year so that our revenues margins we maintained at the range of the 5% to 6% in future.

Antique Stock Broking Limited

Okay, sir. Okay. And in this INR90,000 crores order book, as of now, is there any international piece in this, sir?

Management

Yes. International order book is a total of order of around INR3,200 crores total, out of which some of projects are under execution. And we are also in process of bidding or already bided for many projects in Central Asia, Middle East or East Asia, even East Europe. So certainly, in coming financial year or in this half of the -- second half of this financial year, we hope to gain substantial traction from the international projects also.

Antique Stock Broking Limited

Okay. Okay, sir. And then I think you did clarify on a couple of numbers in terms of inflow. Yes, I think last year was pretty good in terms of inflow. This year, I mean, inflows are a little bit on the lower side, order inflow. So if one has to understand the reasoning for the same, is it the competition is high and then the winning trajectory is commensurate to that is lower or I mean, even the opportunity itself is lower. So how do you, I mean, see things in the market?

Management

No. There was -- certainly difference is there have come to last year. Last year, we won a very large project in -- that was a BharatNet project and some of the larger projects were also won in the last year. So that order flow was order -- of order of around INR18,000 crores last year. This year, other than the competition in the market, what happens, some of the projects, high-value projects, especially in the road sector. They were -- the tendering was repeatedly deferred due to various reasons, be it availability of land or other statutory clearances. So now in coming days, a number of high-value projects are now coming. So our focus is basically on getting the high-value projects where the -- it is a niche sector and the competition is also not that high. A large number of projects are coming in the tunnelling sector where RVNL maintains a leadership position in tunnelling sector. So in coming days, we certainly hope to improve our winning streak in the projects.

Antique Stock Broking Limited

Okay. And then sir, in this road sector as such, we have seen, I mean, like lack of orders in general, I mean, like we are not seeing major orders that are getting awarded. So I mean, it's not like this quarter phenomena from last 1.5 years. And so anything particularly that is the reason that you can share probably like guide us how things are in the road?

Management

No, we cannot comment on the internal dynamics of the road sector, how the different organizations in the road sector, be it NHAI or state PWDs or other developmental agencies have their own issues because it involves many clearances and many other things. So that may be the issue and they have changed their strategy also. It was earlier only the EPC, then they've changed over to the HAM and then they are coming up with a mix of HAM and BOT projects. So it is an evolving strategy, and then we hope that it will get stabilized.

Antique Stock Broking Limited

Got it, sir. Maybe one last thing from me. I think you did mention like we'll do almost like INR21,000 crores to INR22,000-odd crores kind of execution revenue this year. So this actually implies more like a kind of 10% sort of revenue growth. First half has been quite flattish for us, which means like in second half, the number has to be like high double digit. So are you seeing like almost like 1.5 months has passed for quarter 3? So has the pickup seen by us? Or you think probably it will be more like a quarter 4 phenomena for us?

Management

No, it is certainly this quarter, the ongoing quarter, Q3, the results -- the execution pace has improved substantially, although the monsoon was extended this year in various parts of the country. And as you know, the civil engineering projects, they are dependent on the monsoon phenomena and there were some disturbances due to the election, also the labor movement gets hampered. But the pace has increased. And as has been the experience in the previous financial year also, Q3 and Q4, there are substantial improve as compared to Q1 and Q2. So we hope that our revenue guidance will be -- is sustainable for this financial year. And we certainly hope to not only complete this revenue guidance, but we hope to exceed it also.

Antique Stock Broking Limited

Sure, sir. I think that’s pretty helpful and thank you to RVNL management for answering all the question detailed. Thank you very much, sir.

Moderator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Rajagopal an Individual Investor. Please go ahead. Raja you line is unmated. Please go ahead.

Rajagopal

Sir, you gave some figures on order inflow. So can you please repeat those numbers? Was the order inflow in Q2 INR852 crores. Is that correct? INR852 crores?

Management

Yes. The order inflow in the current financial year in Q2 is of order of INR852 crores.

Rajagopal

And in H1? Total in H1 from April to September?

Management

INR2,000 crores.

Rajagopal

INR2,000 crores. And sir, one final thing. You mentioned that you gave some total order inflow projection for FY '26. What was that number, the order inflow for FY '26, total what you anticipate?

Management

It is of order of around INR8,000 crores to INR10,000 crores.

Rajagopal

INR8,000 crores to INR10,000 crores. Okay. All right. Thank you very much. Thank you.

Moderator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Ashit Kothi an Individual Investor. Please go ahead. Ashit your line is unmated. Please proceed with the question. We have lost the line for Ashit. As there are no questions, we would conclude the call now. On behalf of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited, we thank you for joining the call and you may now disconnect your lines.

Management

Thank you very much.