Steel Authority of India Limited

FY2025 Q3

2025-02-12 Transcript PDF
Moderator

Thank you very much. We will now begin the question -and-answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press „*‟ and „1‟ on their touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press „*‟ and „2‟. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. L adies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Ritesh Shah from Investec. Please go ahead.

Investec

Yes, hi, sir . Thanks for the opportunity. S ir, my first question is , what should we make of government 's thinking of potential safeguard duties, import duties? We have heard a lot about it, but nothing has happened as yet. So, how are you looking at it? Th at's the first question. The second question is on the cascading royalty. I think the Supreme Court had given a deadline of 7th of Jan. It got pushed out to 7th of Feb. Is there specific update over there? That's the second question. And the third question, sir, if you could give your thoughts on Karnataka proposed access on which way it can actually go forward or can the centre put a tap on the extent of levy that the state government can potentially propose? These are the three questions. Thank you.

Praveen Nigam

As far as safeguard duty is concerned , as you are aware, that we have given all our input to the ministry, whatever was required and there was a demand of 25% of the safeguard duty. The issue is still pending with the finance ministry. We are also waiting for the outcome of the decision of the finance ministry. As of now, there is no such communication from ministry to us, which we can share. The only thing we can share is that we have given all the input which are required and now we are waiting for the decision of the ministry. As far as the royalty is concerne d, that is based on the Supreme Court decision . We have our min es at three locations: Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and O disha. In Jharkhand, they have already levied a cess of Rs.100 per ton on the mineral s, Odisha and Chhattisgarh have not yet come out with an y such proposition. We are waiting . The moment something comes from the government, we will be in a position to update you. As far as Karnataka is concerned, see, we do not have any operation in Karnataka or any mines in Karnataka . So, that is not going to have any impact as far as SAIL is concerned.

Investec

Sure. That's helpful. And sir, just a bookkeeping question. Sir, how did the flat and the long prices move from Q2 to Q3 ? And i f you could highlight with the current spot prices also that will be quite useful? Thank you.

Praveen Nigam

Yes. As far as the long is concerned, from Q2 to Q3 , Q2 it was around 52,000 which has increased in the Q3 to 53,400, you can say roughly 1,300 has increased as far as long is concerned from Q2 to Q3. Flat also was 49,000 which has come down to 46,800. You can say roughly Rs.2,000 per ton the prices has gone down . Overall, if you see that both flat and long, in Q2 it was around 50,500, which has come down to 49,700 or you can say roughly 800. So , there has been some decline because of the stress in the flat market. And as far as the future is concerned, yes, we have a positive indication for the market , we are expecting that the prices will increase in the coming months , exact price we cannot decl are right now because it is still in the consideration, but yes , t here is a positive sentiment in the market particularly for the flat.

Investec

Sure. Thank you so much. I will join back in the queue.

Moderator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Amit Dixit from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.

ICICI Securities

Yes, hi. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for the opportunity. Congratulations for good performance in a very challenging quarter. Three questions if I may from my side. The first on e is on sales volume growth, which we saw at 16 %-odd YoY in the quarter. Now, this quarter I understand was a period of very tepid consumption at least in December and none of your peers have shown this kind of growth. So, just wanted to understand the spe cific areas where we saw th e demand in this particular quarter?

Praveen Nigam

You are talking in terms of volume?

ICICI Securities

Volume, yes. sales volume.

Praveen Nigam

Carry on. What is your next question?

ICICI Securities

The next question is essentially if I look at your plant wise EBIT, so Rourkela has turned around very well in this quarter and Bhilai if I exclude the rail price revision adjustment in last quarter has also t turned around. So, just wanted to understand the drivers for that? The third one is on coal cost. If you could just let us know the co al cost that was there last quarter and what you see it going in this quarter? The se are the three questions from my side.

Praveen Nigam

Okay. So, I will start with yo ur last question first , that is the co al cost. I will talk about the bl end cost. The blend cost in last quarter was around 20,600, which has come down to 19,200. So, you can say overall there has been reduction as far the coal cost is concerned. That is mainly because of the reduction in the co al prices as far as the imported coal is concern ed. What was the second question?

Management

Bhilai.

Praveen Nigam

Yes, a s far as the performance is concerned, as you talked about Bhilai and Rourkela also , there h as been consistent improvement as far as the techno-economic parameters are concerned. Apart from that , we have got as you know that ref erring the input prices. And input prices basically has let other than the techno -economic parameter for improvement in the performance. And your first question was regarding sales volume growth. So, last year in Q3, our total sales was 3.81 m t, which has increased to 4.43 m t in this particular quarter. So , there has been a n increase in the volume. That is why the above performance has improved. And if you compare with the Q2 also , then also there has been a growth because in the Q2 it was 4.10 m t and in the Q3 of financial year '24-25 it was 4.143. We have also said in our opening remarks that the total improvement was around 16.3% as far as the volume is concerned.

ICICI Securities

No, sir. Wanted to understand the drivers behind that because we have not seen this kind of growth in your peer Company in this quarter. Which area… which sector did you see this demand traction?

Praveen Nigam

Mainly the increase in the consumer sector , that is infrastructure sector where the increase has happened. In fact, if you see that in the last quarter , the sales was on the lower side, which actually is now a substantial increase and the main is this consumer sector.

ICICI Securities

Okay. How is the coal cost expected to move in this Q4?

Praveen Nigam

Coal cost in Q4 is expected to come down further because the imported coal prices have further come down. Expected i s that the imported co al will come down to roughly 19,000 you can say . So, there will be further reprices for coal is concerned.

ICICI Securities

So, you mentioned 19,200 as co al cost in this quarter and you are saying that -?

Praveen Nigam

Rs.19,200 was the bl end cost. Now, if we say s pecific to imported c oals, imported coals price in Q3 was 20,000 which we are expecting will come down by another 1,000 in Q4.

ICICI Securities

Okay. On a blended basis, we can expect another Rs.1,000 or -

Praveen Nigam

Roughly Rs.1,000.

ICICI Securities

Got it, sir. Thank you so much and all the best.

Moderator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of S umangal from Kotak Securities. Please go ahead.

Sumangal

Hi, thank you for the chance. The first question is on the pri ces. So, you mentioned average was around 49,700 in 3Q. So, can you share in January what was the average price or blended price for us?

Praveen Nigam

Average blended price in January is 48,400 you can see.

Sumangal

Okay. So, it is around Rs.1,200 down versus 3Q average, right?

Praveen Nigam

Yes.

Sumangal

Understood. Sir, the next question is on the CAPEX. So, first, can you share what is the nine months CAPEX, full year guidance and FY26?

Praveen Nigam

Nine months CAPEX is around Rs.3,900 crores. As far as the expansion is concerned, as we have told in the last con call that Stage-I approval for the steel plant was given by the board. The process is on for forming of th is order. Bokaro and Durgapur Stage-I approval has also been given by the board. So, now that is coal steel plant, Bokaro and Durgapur, we are in the process of forming of the co st. Once the cost is finalized, we will go for the Stage-II approval.

Sumangal

Understood. While we are working on this, what could be the CAPEX for FY26 because this we believe will be more from FY27 onwards, right?

Praveen Nigam

Yes, it will be in the range of 7 ,500 roughly you can say because the expansion CAPEX will also start happening in FY26.

Sumangal

And so these three plants put together, what is the capacity we are looking to add?

Praveen Nigam

So, it will be roughly 7.5 mt all the three plants together.

Sumangal

Okay, sir. C an you give us rough gross CAPEX, this 7 , 8 million tons expansion will take, would it be around -?

Praveen Nigam

Yes, it will be in the range of around 55,000 to 56,000 crores.

Sumangal

Okay. And spread across how many years?

Praveen Nigam

This plan is for 2031 as we said in the previous con call also that our expansion which is going to come across sale, it will be happening by 2031.

Sumangal

Okay. But sir, that we believe was for 15 million tons, right, I mean this is only 7.5 mt.

Praveen Nigam

15 mt. We are going for the phase wise expansion . In this Phase-III plant have already got the Stage-I approval. We are in the process of getting the Stage-I approval of the rest two plants also and the total expansion what we are expecting by 2031 is 15 mt. So, you can say this also will come that the production or the facility will become operational by 2031.

Sumangal

Understood. That's very clear. S ir, one qu estion on the overall net debt. So, net-debt we were guiding for around 5 ,000, 6,000 crores of reduction this year. I think we started the year with 30,000 crores net debt . So, can you kind of share the latest thoughts on debt reduction by say fourth quarter end?

Praveen Nigam

As I told in my opening remarks also that as of now the total debt is around 32,600, which is slightly higher than what it was in 31st March 2024; it was around 30,500. In last con-call, we said the same thing that we are planning to reduce our debt and bring down to the level of 31st March 2024. As we have said that in the Q2 our total debt was around 35,000. This has already come down to 32,600 level a nd we are expecting that by the end of this particul ar financial year, our debt will be in the similar range as it was in 31st March 2024.

Sumangal

Understood. Understood. And lastly, sir, any guidance on the volume front for this year and next year?

Praveen Nigam

For next year, we are still in the proces s of finalizing our business plan. We cannot exactly comment. But this time it is around 18.5 mt crude steel.

Sumangal

Understood. Okay. Thank you so much. All the best, sir.

Moderator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Mohit Bansali from Aryan Group. Please go ahead.

Aryan Group

Yes. Thanks for the opportunity. I want to know what the current inventory is and what is the value of that inventory?

Praveen Nigam

So, total inventory of finish ed and semi-finished goods is 2.98 m t and the value of this is around 12,000, 13,000 crores.

Aryan Group

Okay, sir. So, second question is regarding expansion or CAPEX. Since you are going for a very huge CAPEX, I just want to understand what is the peak debt level SAIL wants to maintain because alre ady the debt is increasing without expansion since the last two years, your debt was around 13,000 at the end of March '22 as I see in the presentation , now, it has gone up to around 32 ,000, 33,000. So, without any major significant expansion, your debt is going up. So, when you go through this CAPEX, further, you will take the debt from the bank. That is what I think. So, do you have any picture about what is the peak level of debt SAIL is thinking about?

Praveen Nigam

First of all, let me answer you r query that the debt has increased. You see , the debt increase was because of the abnormal increase in the imported coal prices which has cooled down substantially. So, going forward, you can see there has been consistent reduction as far as the debt is concerned without any expansion which was in the range of 35,000 in the month of September, has already come down to 32, 600. And as we told that, it will further come down by the end of this financial year and we will be maintaining at least that level of 31st March 2024 if not less. As f ar as the expansion is concerned, our projection is that it should remain 1 :1. But at the peak sometimes it might go up to 1.2 but not beyond that whatever the projection we have made.

Aryan Group

Okay, sir. Sir, this expansion, don't you think that first of all you should control your cost like your employee cost , your operational cost , even your net sales realization is not good as compared to private players , so don't you think that first you should improve overall y our own performance, because right now your capacity is around 20 million crude steel that you are not able to produce because market is not that favorable , so don't you think first of all you should improve all your parameters and generate some good cash and then you should go for the expansion, sir?

Praveen Nigam

As you see, one of the investors has asked a query what was the reason for a better performance as compared to a peer in the previous question, we said that we are in the process of improving our techno -economic parameters as there has been substantial improvements. So, that result will come, as far as the cost is concerned, the cost will further come down and will give benefit to us. Now , it's a continuous process, it's not that first we have to do this and then we go for the expansion. We are continuously focusing on improving our performance a s far as the cost is concerned , improving our product mix, which will ultimately give benefit as far as the cash realization is concerned. We are expect ing that going forward, the NSR will also strengthen , because we are expecting th ere will be some relief from the government as far as the safeguard duty is concerned and the coal prices which are continuously coming down and maintaining a level of $188 to $190 per ton. So, this all will give generation of additional cash. So, we will be in a position to maintain a debt -equity ratio of 1:1 on an overall basis, and I think debt-equity ratio of 1:1 with the expansion of 15 mt is a quality good proposition.

Aryan Group

Okay, sir. Got it. Got it. Sir, third question is, are we going to get revised rail prices next year or what is the current rail price you're getting from the railways?

Praveen Nigam

You see, price declaration probably would not be very good in this forum. We will give you offline. We have got the rail price for '22-23 from the CA cost. As far as '23-24 is concerned, yes, all is to the CA cost as you are aware, therefore rail price , railways has given this responsibility to chief adviser cost, it is a department of expenditure in the Ministry of Finance , they give the fair value of a particular product. For '23-24, we are in the process of finalizing a price. It has not yet come . And we are exp ecting that soon it will come and will give benefit to us.

Moderator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, in order to ensure that the management is able to address questions from all the participants, please limit your question to two per participant. If you have a follow up question, I would request you to rejoin the queue. The next question is from the line of Pallav Agrawal from Antique Stock Broking. Please go ahead.

Antique Stock Broking

Yes. Good afternoon, sir. So, first question was on -

Moderator

Sorry to interrupt, sir. I would request you to please use your handset.

Antique Stock Broking

Yes, I am using the handset. Am I audible now?

Antique Stock Broking

Sir, first question was on the coking co al. So, with imported coking co al prices coming down, is there an indexat ion for domestic coal as well or domestic coal prices stay the same despite imported coking coal prices coming down?

Praveen Nigam

Actually, this domestic coal prices have import parity with both upper and lower capping. So, there is a parity with the imp orted coal. So, naturally when there is a parity, so there will be some reduction in the domestic coal price also.

Antique Stock Broking

Okay, but may not be in the same proportion as a fall in import?

Praveen Nigam

Not be in the same because there is upper capping or lower capping involved, so they may not be in the same proportion, but yes , reduction will be there.

Antique Stock Broking

Okay. And what would be the proportion – is it 85-15% mix between domestic and imported?

Praveen Nigam

We are using a blend of you can say almost 85% of the imported coal and 15% of the domestic coal at SAIL as a whole.

Antique Stock Broking

Okay. And do we purchase any coke externally or most of it is captive coke?

Praveen Nigam

No, no, no, we are producing, we are not procuring, there could be one-off cases when we might have pr ocured, but otherwise no , as a policy we are not procuring.

Antique Stock Broking

Sure, sir. Okay. And I just missed the CAPEX number that you mentioned for the nine months FY25 and FY25 guidance. If you could just -

Praveen Nigam

I said that it was 3,900 crores in this particular financial year till December and next year that is FY26 expected is 7,500.

Moderator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Prat im Roy from B &K Securities. Please go ahead.

Pratim Roy

Hi, sir. Thank you for the opportunity. You mentioned that 15 mt capacity will come into play and w hat will be the timeline for that? You said that it is by 2031. And if you could give me the detailed breakup of 15 mt? And secondly, how much cost will be incurred on that basis ? And if the capacity go up, then how much will be funded t hrough internal cash and how much will be the debt portion on that? Thank you.

Praveen Nigam

Yes. As we said that our t otal expansion envisaged by 2031 is 15 mt, out of which around 7 mt has already got the first phase expansion in I ISCO, Bokaro and Durga pur. And for this Rourkela and this Bhilai steel plant, we are still in the process of getting this first stage approval . We cannot exactly tell the quantity or quantum which is going to come in these two plants, but roughly it will be in the range of Rourkela say around 3.5 m t additional and rest will be in Durgapur in the second phase.

Pratim Roy

Okay, sir. What is the CAPEX impact of 15 mt expansion?

Praveen Nigam

Roughly, if you say , thumb rule figure that it would be in the range of 1,10,000 to 1,20,00 0 crores of 15 mt. As far as the funding is concerned, we are maintaining 1:1, that is the debt-equity ratio.

Pratim Roy

Okay, sir. Thank you, sir.

Moderator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of T ushar Chaudhari from Prabhudas Lilladher Capital. Please go ahead.

Tushar Chaudhari

Yes, good afternoon, sir. Thanks for the question and thanks for the opportunity. Sir. in earlier con calls once we had discussed in 1Q FY25 that we had a few long-term agreements for coking co al with few of the coal miners. Just wanted to know , are they over and when will we get the benefit of lower coking co al over the period, can the imported coal cost to go down to Rs.16,000, Rs.17,000 per ton in the next few quarters?

Praveen Nigam

Yes. As we said in the previous con-call also, the long-term contract what we are having is a continuous process and it will keep moving in the similar fashion. So, there is no issue as far as the contract is concerned for the coal mines is concerned.

Tushar Chaudhari

So, now with the lower prices also we are doing long-term agreement?

Praveen Nigam

Yes, yes. Actually, you see, we have a lo ng-term contract, but the prices are determined by the average of flat and long index, the discounts are given based on that on the monthly basis. So, there is no issue as far as the price is concerned . The moment this ind ex come down, the prices will come down automatically.

Tushar Chaudhari

And secondly, sir, in this result, do we have any one -off item in other expenses, because if I do it on per ton basis, it is quite low?

Praveen Nigam

Can you repeat your question?

Tushar Chaudhari

Is there any one-off item in lower other expenses? Basically, o ther expenses is lower vis-à-vis the prior quarters on per ton basis which is around Rs.16,000.

Praveen Nigam

No, there is no specific item under the other expenses which we can mention here. It's a general improvement you can say in all.

Tushar Chaudhari

Great. Thanks a lot.

Moderator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Vikas Singh from PhillipCapital. Please go ahead.

Phillip Capital

Good afternoon, sir, and thank you for the opportunity. S ir, just wanted to understand one thing, out of all our plan ts, Durgapur has the largest semis component. So, basically any downstream projects which we are taking to bring down this semis content if you could give us some insight into it?

Praveen Nigam

Yes, we have a plan to bring down this 1 mt TMT mill and also on B U basis 0.4 m t TMT mill. So , the plan is to utilize the s emis as much as possible internally.

Phillip Capital

So, by when this TMT mills are supposed to come?

Praveen Nigam

The process is on . The starting stage has already been received, we are in the process of as I told the forming of the cost , and after that you can say roughly it will take another three to four years.

Phillip Capital

So, till then this semis component will continue as it is, right?

Praveen Nigam

No. As we said in our opening remarks that we are in the process of tying up with the conver sion agent and our semis in the sales has come down substantially. So, we are continuing in that process . We will furt her increase our conversion agreement with the various parties. The efforts are already on to reduce the semis portion as far as the saleable steel is concerned.

Phillip Capital

Understood. And s ir, just couple of calls back, you have given us some insight into our low grade iron ore as well as pellet plant capacity to utilize this low grade further. So, a ny further update on the same , what is happening in the Jharkhand , whether we got the approval and when our pellet plants are coming up so that we can utiliz e Goa ore which is not unutilized as of now?

Praveen Nigam

As far as t he Goa iron ore is concerned , that is subgrade iron ore fines which is lying there . For conversion of that into the p elletization, we are yet to get this first stage approval from the board. We are in the process of forming of the board note and if we put to the board and once the approval is given, we'll go ahead , but the plan is there to convert it to p ellet. Am I clear?

Phillip Capital

Mostly. So, any near-term plan to sell ir on ore as well because we still have a permission in Odisha and Chhattisgarh?

Praveen Nigam

We have a permission in O disha and Chhattisgarh. There we are selling also. In Jharkhand, w e are yet to get that local approval from the state government. If we get the approval from the state government, which we are pursuing with the government , we will sell also, there is no such thing that we cannot sell. But till the time we get the approval , we have to use it domestically internally only.

Moderator

Thank yo u. The next question is from the line of Rashi Chopra from Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Citigroup

Thank you. Just some bookkeeping questions. What is the current NSR for flats and long separately?

Praveen Nigam

You mean to say for Q3?

Citigroup

No, current. You give us a blended for January was 48,400.

Praveen Nigam

For January, the NSR in the long was 51,500 and this flat was 45 ,800 and blended was 48,400.

Citigroup

Got it. In FY25, what is your CAPEX target as in what is remaining for the fourth quarter?

Praveen Nigam

In FY25, our total CAPEX target is 5,700, out of which 3 ,900 we have already incurred by December, so the remaining you can say 1 ,800 in the next three months, that is January, February and March.

Citigroup

Got it. You've given us a crude steel target for the year, but sales volume wise, how much have you done in January , and what is the target for the full year?

Praveen Nigam

Up to January, we have achieved the sales target of 1.57 m t and our total target is around 17.5 mt for the whole year.

Citigroup

Got it. And just a last question from me. You gave the total inventory for semi-finished and finished , 2.98. What i s the finished good s amount in there?

Praveen Nigam

Finished goods is 1.79 mt.

Citigroup

And this was 1.93 mt as of September, right?

Praveen Nigam

Yes, it was 1.93 mt number, that's right.

Moderator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question for today. I now hand the conference over to the management for closing comments.

Praveen Nigam

Yes, thank you very much. My closing comments are, the forecast of the Indian economy by various agencies have been quite encouraging and the support by the government is strengthening the belief that the economy will continue to do well , steel demand also continues to prosper, and we are hopeful that the price will maintain the momentum that has gained post-monsoon. Apart from the improvement in the operational performance, the Company also remains committed towards sustainable performance including emphasis on the decarbonization, improving capacity utilization, value addition and achieving cost competitiveness. I thank all the investor for their reposing faith in us and I am hopeful that the same will continue in the future as well. Thank you.

Moderator

On behalf of N uvama Wealth Management Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us and you may now disconnect your lines.