Tata Motors Limited

Quarter ended Mar 2026

2026-05-13 Transcript PDF
Sneha Gavankar

The first question is from Kapil from Nomura. What is the growth outlook for MHCVs, LCVs in FY27? And how much risk do you see to this from fuel price hikes? And do you think it will be a more back-ended H2 FY27 growth? Okay, and then maybe I'll take the n ext question.

Girish Wagh

So, Kapil on the growth outlook. See, the April volumes have also been good for the industry, and in fact, we have seen a healthy double -digit growth in April. We have now been through almost half of May, and actually, the momentum, as I said, the underlying demand fundamentals are still there. As I said, I think we are monitoring all the external factors, especially the diesel prices, which will have a significant impact on how the market pans out because diesel will have at least 30% to 50% impact on the total cost of ownership. And I think at this point of time, I would say that we will have to take quarter-by-quarter rather than projecting for the whole year with the kind of event that we are challenged with. And I would say, therefore, that despite this, we should see a single -digit growth, if not more, in Q1. I think that's what I would like to say at this juncture with regard to the growth outlook, and as we get in touch again, probably we will be more wiser, or this event would have been become more c learer for us to give a longer term visibility Page 6

Sneha Gavankar

The next question from Kapil itself, but a lot of other people have also asked the same question, is around commodity cost pressures. So, how much of it is expected in Q1? How much of it is getting passed on? And what will the competitive intensity be like, and the impact on margins? What will be the drivers for margins from here?

Girish Wagh

Okay. So, I think the commodity headwinds are certainly serious, and we've already seen around 100 basis point impact in Q4. Beyond the impact in Q4, we have also seen significantly higher impact being seen in Q1, which is the quarter that we are in now. Now to add ress this, we have taken a 2% price increase in the month of April, but we have decided to not pass on the entire commodity increases and we will work on the cost levers because we don't want to impact the demand momentum by passing on the entire commodity increases. So we will work on the cost side, expense side to manage the financials. As far as margin drivers are concerned, Kapil and since a few others have asked this question, I would say clearly it will remain the same whether these commodity headwinds are there or not, which is about going on improving the value proposition for the c ustomer. And the second one is I think keep managing the costs, expenses, and the expenditure which is controllable and, in our hand, I think that's what I would say as far as margins are concerned.

Sneha Gavankar

Sir, next question from Nishit of Axis. When will we start executing the orders of 70,000 units to Indonesia? And will the entire order get delivered in FY27 itself?

Girish Wagh

So we have progressed well on the Indonesia order. I'm pleased to tell you that we already have the product homologated in Indonesia, and our first shipment is already on the seas. And we will actually ramp up the supplies quite rapidly. I think we will pr obably talk about it as we go ahead and meet again quarters ahead in terms of what is going to be the actual delivery timeline. But of course, we are trying to ramp up the deliveries pretty fast.

Sneha Gavankar

Thank you. So Ramanan, maybe this one coming your way. What are the key reasons for delay in closure of the Iveco deal? Earlier, we were expecting closure by April/May. And how are you looking at the acquisition of a 6 -7% stake in Iveco by an activist hedge fund from the market? How can this impact our deal closure or deal value?

G.V. Ramanan

Yeah, so I think good question, Nishit. As you know, Iveco has a strong global footprint, right? And getting approvals from various regulators is time -consuming. But despite that, I think we have received almost all the approvals, barring the last two financial regulatory approvals which are for France and Spain. We are working towards closing this at the earliest, and we expect this to kind of spill into Q2, and that's where our timeline for deal closure is going to be Q2. On the second part of the question, on the investor, I think we are confident that the Iveco Page 7 investor would see value in our offer and would support the deal.

Sneha Gavankar

Thank you. Next question is from Pramod Amthe, InCred. ASPs have been dropping YoY. Is it because of discounting trends or is it because of change in product mix.

Girish Wagh

So, Pramod, I'm happy that you asked this question because actually we had also engaged offline with some of you to explain this. So, actually see the ASPs are not reducing. Segment by segment actually, the ASPs are increasing, and in fact, in trucks, there is a healthy increase in ASPs on a YoY basis. The key reason for this drop wherein if you divide the revenue or the turnover with the number of vehicles sold is essentially due to the increas e in number of vans in the volumes, and compared to last year, we hardly have any electric buses being sold this year. This alone is one very important reason for the change that one has seen in terms of the ASPs. And as we go ahead, when we have electric buses coming back into the volumes and also have electric vehicles sold in some of the other product lines, actually, we will see a positive impact on the ASPs.

Sneha Gavankar

From Pramod itself. A couple of other questions. Can you talk about segment -wise drivers and challenges for FY27? And in SCVs, with the new launches of EVs and LNT has the cost economics turned favorable to ease the onslaught of three wheelers?

Girish Wagh

So, I think, let me first answer the second question because it is a really good question. So, as a part of this quarterly connect, I have engaged with most of the financiers, both Banks and NBFCs, and invariably, I have heard about improvement in the asset quality for all of them in SCV Pickup. And the answer to your question is actually yes. Where in you've asked whether, with the launch of new LNT etc. whether the cost economics have turned favorable. Yes, I think at least the asset quality for these vehicles has improved significantly for the financiers. With launches of new EV, yes, I think the operating economics are becoming quite favorable with two products, especially one is Ace Pro and second is the Intra, and therefore we are seeing a good pull for these vehicles. Now, your question about segment -wise drivers and challenges for FY27. See, I would suggest that we actually go quarter -by-quarter, which is what I answered to Kapil also, and frankly, at this juncture, we don't see any drop in freight availability. The real challenge, in our view, the firs t immediate challenge is going to be what happens to the diesel prices, and that's something that we need to monitor. I think the freight availability probably continues to be there across all the segments.

Sneha Gavankar

Yeah. I think most of the ones which Raghu has said have been covered. But I've got a question separately on email, so maybe I'll read that out. This is from Gunjan, BofA. Can you talk about truck operator sentiment on ground more recently? What does your experience of past fuel price increases tell you about the industry cycle? What variables matter more from a cycle perspective? Does replacement cycles still play out given the aging of trucks? Page 8

Girish Wagh

Okay, so actually Gunjan, we have stopped doing that sentiment study, which I used to report every quarter. We are actually revisiting the entire methodology to make it more relevant to the current market conditions, and probably once we restart, we will c ome back on that. But if I were to put together some anecdotes and therefore tell you, I think amongst the fleet owners, diesel prices and how they pan out is actually one of the big question mark. And due to that, I think at times the customers are postpo ning their purchase decision making, maybe closer towards the month end. But this is something which I think the fleet owners, the customers are going through largely on the heavy side. As you go down towards smaller vehicles, I think the uncertainty is lower is what I would say, which also probably indicates freight availability as we go down. And in fact we have also seen for the whole of last year, SCV pickup, and ILMCV; ILMCV is 5 tons to 19 tons have actually showed the highest growth rates, and we con tinue to see that even in this particular quarter. So I think that's what I can answer right now in terms of sentiment, Gunjan. What was the second question?

Sneha Gavankar

Does replacement cycle still play out given the aging of trucks?

Girish Wagh

Yeah, I think I've been saying this for, true replacement being happening on ground. That means a truck being taken out from the system and then replaced by a new truck. I should see good number of trucks coming to our scrappage centers, but actually that still doesn't happen. Yes, it may be true that we are not available at all the locations, but we are already there at 11 locations. I think the inflow continues to be low, and therefore, in my view, the fleet owners do replace the trucks after four to six years, after the warranty period is over. But I think it changes hands, and then it continues to remain in usage for smaller duty cycles, lower distances, lighter loads, or whatever. But I think some of these trucks continue to be there. But if I were to answer your question only for the large fle et owners who replace their vehicles after four to six years, I think we have been working on that data. I would say that at least probably 40% of the volume was related to these large fleet owners replacing their trucks with new ones.

Sneha Gavankar

So just I believe we are having a technical glitch, and people are not able to post the questions online. So I'm getting them via email. So I'll be reading out as they come.

Girish Wagh

Yeah

Sneha Gavankar

So the next question, again from Gunjan. Does the mid -teens EBITDA margin guide hold despite cost headwinds?

Girish Wagh

So Gunjan, whatever I answered to Kapil and then Pramod holds good. I think at this juncture we will have to go really quarter by quarter. And let me tell you, I think the commodity inflation which has happened, including rupee devaluation, is quite severe, and we are trying to fight it Page 9 out. And as I said, obviously we are not passed on the whole increases. It's out of question because we don't want to completely destroy or disturb the demand growth momentum. But we have increased our cost -side efforts, and our endeavor will be to continu e delivering good margins.

G.V. Ramanan

And if I may just add in just a correction, Gunjan. Our guidance was teens and not mid -teens.

Girish Wagh

Next

Sneha Gavankar

Yeah. So, international growth guidance, given the uncertainty in neighboring markets .

Girish Wagh

I think I did answer this question in response to question from Pramod. But just to recap, I think we do see some pressure in Sri Lanka, especially because of reduced availability of fuel, the prices going up. We do see some impact in Middle East because, of course, the war is happening there. So we have had no shipments to Middle East in the last two months. We're trying to find out alternate routes or logistics to ensure that the vehicles can reach there. So that's what I see the impact right now. But we are trying to recover this through increase in volumes in other markets. And here the Indonesia order is also coming to our rescue. So, I would say that even on international market we will have to take it, a more quarter -by-quarter approach in view of the uncertainties.

Sneha Gavankar

Okay. I think we've now resolved the glitch. So, you can please post your questions on the chat itself. But in the meanwhile, while that comes, Ramanan sir, a question for you. Is there any clarity on the financing structure for Iveco?

G.V. Ramanan

I think as we had shared earlier, our initial plan for financing is going to be through a bridge loan and subsequent refinancing at this point of time, all options are open. So we've kept both equity and debt still open. And I think closer to date we will finalise the percentage of equity or debt.

Sneha Gavankar

Okay.

Girish Wagh

Sneha, there is a question from Raghu which we have missed. I mean, quite a few of his questions we have answered. But there is one question I will take, I mean, two questions he has asked. Can you please share Iveco FY26 financials, including defense if possible? So no, and I mean in fact they have already released their results in the last week. So, you can have a look at those. You have asked a question on what is supporting market share in tractor trailers, buses, and LCVs in the recent times? So I think very clearly the new product launches and therefore the product superiority is clearly one of the reasons that is supporting this. I think the new products Page 10 that we've launched, whether it is higher payload, higher fuel efficiency, are clearly or the Azura range. I think these are the ones which are driving higher traction. I must also say that our strategy at micro -segmental level actions is also helping. Mic ro-segmental level will be for geography and a particular end -use segment. We are having differing strategy and also prioritizing amongst those micro segments. So that's something which is helping us. I must also add that with the customer success centers now deployed across the country at more than 100 dealers, I think our service delivery has improved quite significantly, and a lot of proactive inputs we are being able to give it to the customers to i mprove the functioning, uptime, and even sometimes the fuel efficiency delivery on the vehicles. I would say that all these things put together has helped us to improve the market share.

Girish Wagh

There is a question from Tom, Ramanan

G.V. Ramanan

I can take that

Sneha Gavankar

Yeah. So, the question is regarding the balance Iveco approvals. Can you confirm whether the foreign investment approval in France and change of ownership approval from the Bank of Spain is remaining?

G.V. Ramanan

Tom, with respect to your question, just to clarify, and as I had shared with the earlier question too. All approvals have been secured. What is pending is only the finance regulatory approval, which is from France and Spain. All FDI approvals have already been received.

Sneha Gavankar

Thank you. Yeah. So, there's a clarificatory question from Aditya.

Girish Wagh

So, Aditya, I think arithmetically you may be right, but I think the message that I wanted to convey was with this kind of uncertainty, it's very difficult to give a very specific number. But still, I think sticking the neck out saying that we will certainly have a single -digit growth in Q 1, which is quite good. Coming to Kapil, your question is about what the growth outlook for EVs for LCVs and buses is , and about Intra. Yes, I think Intra EV has got price positioned very, very well and is at a very good spot, and therefore there is quite a bit of a demand which we have seen for Intra EV. Regarding your point about supply challenges. So, Kapil, this is just the second month of production since we started and we have a plan to ramp it up gradually as we go ahead, and we are sure that we will be able to meet the demand. In terms of EV penetration that we can expect in LCVs. I will say that Kapil, for the whole of last year, our penetration in SCV pickup of EVs was around 4%, but if you look at towards the end of the year, especially last one or two months, this penetratio n has actually picked up to around Page 11 7%. So, we do expect penetration to be in this higher single -digit zone.

Sneha Gavankar

Next question from Nishit. In H2 FY26, MHCV demand panned out way too strong compared to expectations. Any color, what drove the same? Whether this was addition of capacity by fleet operators or replacement demand? And how much of was the role of stronger than expected pent up demand in tippers? And does the strong growth in H2 make you cautious on FY27 demand apart from the other near -term concerns, or do you think there are more growth drivers?

Girish Wagh

So I think H2 FY26 growth was clearly driven by increase in consumption. I think that was very important driver and that led to higher freight being made available, and that was translated into new purchases. Now those new purchases could be either to add capacity or for replacement both. I mean, I also answered Gunjan's question on what could be the likely replacement by the fleet owners. So that's where we are, and I think see separately you guys only have asked a question that M&HCV or HCV volumes are still lower than FY19 peak in volume terms. Then I answer that in tonnage terms we are higher. So frankly still there is a headroom. If and I've been saying, I mean generally one algorithm or one equation correlation seems to be emerging that if the GDP growth is somewhere around X, then closer to that is also the CAGR in road freight BTKM, and as road freight keeps on increasing, we will see addition of capacity even in M&HCV. As far as tippers are concerned, I must say that post rainy season, i.e., September, there has been a significant uptick even in tippers, which is because I think the infrastructure activity also picked up. So that's something that we have seen. We are still seeing good demand, good pull for the tippers, but of course, we will now shortly be entering into the rainy season, which is typically a very low demand season for tippers. And maybe after that, we'll be in a position to then give better visibility of what's likely to happen in H2.

Sneha Gavankar

Some questions that we've got by email. Can you tell us a little bit more about what's happening in the EV bus market? Why were we not participating?

Girish Wagh

Yeah. So, see in the electric bus tenders we have participated in the last two CESL tenders and I think in the first one out of those we were close to L2 in one of the sub part of that entire tender and the second tender I think the tender has just got opened yeste rday. I think across VC , two things; one is the government has addressed our requirement of payment security mechanism and also asset light model which is there. But in our view and with more than 50 crore kilometers under the belt, more than 3,400 buses, I think the current set of quotes which are coming are, in our view, unsustainable. So, we are therefore going in a very prudent manner in this particular business. But let me add I think we have been also pretty active on promoting electric bus travel now in corporates especially for employee travel. We are also engaging with some customers for other Page 12 applications; Intracity, Intercity, mostly Intercity, sorry and this we believe will also start bringing some volume to us. So that's where we are in terms of electric buses.

Sneha Gavankar

Thank you. Ramanan, a couple of questions coming your way. This one's from Amyn, JP Morgan. Historically, we have seen very large working capital inflow in 4Q, which leads to a disproportionate increase in FCF. This time, the seasonality seems to be weaker in this regard. Anything to call out here? And the second question is on the CapEx guidance for FY27, whether there are any specific areas of investment that we are looking at.

G.V. Ramanan

I think a good question on cash. Amyn, as you are aware, CV business is very cyclical in nature. Historically, we have experienced working capital burn quarter -on-quarter, with Q4 being an exception. But I think FY26, with our sustained focus on disciplined working capital management, the large sinks historical ly concentrated in Q4 have been more evenly managed through the year, resulting in a more stable, predictable, and consistent cash flow. So, on a YTD basis post Q2, we've been consistently positive, w hich was not how it was historically. Coming to your question on CapEx. I think for the last couple of years we've been giving guidance on CapEx of 2% to 4% of revenue, and we've been very consistent in meeting that. In FY26 also, we are well within the guidance. And despite this gap, I think our focus on investment in priority areas, new technology has always been prioriti sed. So, we expect FY27 also our guidance would remain similar, 2% to 4% of revenue .

Sneha Gavankar

Yeah. I don't think we have any other questions on the call. I think with that we can conclude the call. Thank you very much for joining in, and for any other questions, happy to connect offline. Thank you so much.