UltraTech Cement Limited analyst Q&A

The first question is from Amit Murarka from Axis Capital.

So the first question is on the fuel cost. So you had guided for a normalization of fuel cost by the Q3. And it's good to see a sharp drop in Q2 itself. So could you help understand like in Q3 or by Q4, what could be the expected fuel cost when you kind of normalize back to the spot cost level?

It should drop further, Amit. And as I mentioned, on an average, we would have a consumption of, give or take, 3 million tons of fuel between coal and pet coke. It's not just the cost of purchase, but the fuel mix also is equally important. And you would have noticed that we have gone up on pet coke significantly, which will keep on go ing up further. What will the number be like , difficult for me to give you an exact estimate, but we will be going down south only.

Sure. And also on your cost. So I see that there's a sharp jump in employee costs. I know you do annual increments from Q2, but it's almost a 24% Q-o-Q jump. So is there any one-off, one-time bonus or anything like that?

Yes, there have been one-time bonus or extra bonuses, which were given during this period. So our average increase should be around 9%, 10% and over and above that would be one-off.

Okay. And lastly on other expenses as well, like last quarter, you had said that you had higher marketing spend. But the other expenses, at least on a per ton basis have gone up another INR100. So how do we think about other expenses now?

Maintenance cost is the one...

Okay. In the printed accounts because all the maintenance costs are included in other expenses. This being the quarter for maintenance, that is where you will see other expenses always being higher as compared to remaining quarters.

No, no, I know, but I thought that Q1 was a bit elevated because of some one -off marketing spend...

No. So Q1 had that one-off expense, which will not be there now or in future. This quarter, we had maintenance shutdown costs, which are part of my other expenses.

The next question is from Raashi Chopra from Citigroup.

So could you just tell us a little bit on pricing in the sense that what's happened after the quarter?

How come I missed on the favorite question for everybody? Prices have been improving, whilst the average for the quarter will be a misrepresentation of things going forward. August to September also we saw improvement in prices and September to October also, the prices have been steady. So we have seen an improvement of -- from INR347 was August exit to about INR354 currently.

And on average versus the 2Q?

So one sec, the Q2 average was about INR348, which is now INR354.

Got it. And in this quarter, the other operating income seems to have moved up sequentially. What is that attributed to?

Yes, there were plant incentive which kicked in, long overdue.

Okay. So this should continue?

No. This was again -- there will be small portions left, but not forever. Maybe 1 or 2 more quarters, we might see additional incentive income.

Okay. And on -- the last question on India Cements, the CCI approval is awaited. Is there any sort of delay or I mean...?

No, it's a normal process. So there was first query list which was received, which we have responded to on the 12th of October. There might be one more list of queries. If it comes in, otherwise, nothing else. So they ask a lot of questions around details of markets and where we are selling, where India Cements is selling, etcetera.

So likely closure within this fiscal?

Yes. Within this fiscal, the content level is very high.

Yes, sir, my first question is on pricing or profitability versus volumes. So our current quarter EBITDA per ton is like sort of probably 4, 5 year s low on a quarterly basis at least. So is there a point where you as a company or industry probably like look at the profitability versus volumes? Or how should we look at going forward?

Demand is the key for any industry. So if demand is good, everything falls in line. So we would fundamentally focus on how India is shaping, how India is growing in the next few years. And I guess, the hypothesis of 7% to 8% growth is still there, will be there and India will deliver that growth, which means we will deliver that growth higher than that. So I think maybe I have not answered your question fully. If there is growth, obviously, there will be profitability.

Yes of course, growth will be in the profitability, but like your whole cost-saving initiatives, say industry cost, payable cost coming seems to already more than passed to the consumer. Historically we have, as an industry, like looked at better profits g enerally. It seems there is a significant deviation from there and even unlike for second half, not sure how much EBITDA per ton we are looking for improvement overall. But maybe a related question, like if there is a prolonged slowdown in d emand, do we really relook at our organic expansion plans at all? Or like how should we look at capacity expansion...?

No, no, no. So these 1 quarter, 2 quarter slowdowns will not impact our underlying hypothesis of growth. We are not slowing down on our growth agenda. That's very clear because we don't get disturbed by these 1 quarter, 2 quarter upsets. Fundamentally, we need to believe that India will deliver a 7%, 8% CAGR growth. That is happening, and that is why I downloaded some data, which I read out just now on various projects which the government has started announcing, rural markets have started growing. Rural housing has started growing. If you're looking at a short -term window, then good monsoons, which have depressed cement sector this quarter will be a positive gain for April, June quarter when crop harvesting takes place. And which we are already seeing right now, rural demand, the FMCG sector is positive about rural demand. We are seeing a positive trajectory in rural demand also.

Okay. And one other question is on white segment revenues, which like sort of slipped 10% year-on-year this quarter. Any specific reason there?

I'm sorry what?

The white segment revenues was like lower year-on-year by around...

Putty prices were depressed. Putty prices have taken a beating this quarter.

Okay. Is that continuing? Or like is it expected to revive?

No, no. I think they have stabilized. We have not seen decrease in prices as of now.

Atul sir, I have one broad question, which may not be a near-term thing. Just want to understand one thing, you have been continuously surprising positively on realization versus what we see on pan -India prices. If I compare numbers for the last quarter, y our trade segment has not changed much. So what drives UltraTech's continued delivery on realization versus the industry? Just to understand this better.

So I think this is a complement for us. Thank you for that. Rahul, it all boils down to us being building solutions, provide -- or us being top-notch in quality, us being able to meet our customer requirements with our strong dealer network footprint. And being consistently brand A player, we have maintained our positioning, brand positioning, our quality parameters, never compromising over there, which is helping us deliver whatever we are delivering.

Sir, just a follow-up on this. Is it fair to say that apart from being a preferred brand, you being a pan-India player helps you cushion some of the regional disturbances on prices? Or is it a more...

Certainly, it does. Pan -India presence, the diversity of our physical presence comes to our advantage as well as disadvantage. So when, let's say, there is an imbalanced movement in one particular region, that will have an overhang on our results. But luck ily, as we are growing forward, our own capacity would be balanced across all regions. That will help us to be a really diversified player and will not get impacted by any regional imbalances.

The next question is from Sumangal Nevatia from Kotak Securities. Please go ahead.

Sir, my first question is on industry demand. Is it possible to share your sense, what would have been the industry demand growth in second quarter? And in your presentation, we see a lot of down arrows across regions. Is it possible to give some color as to some regional color and in our growth, I mean it looks like we would have grown in some region, and we would have seen some decline. So some region-wise color specifics will be very helpful, sir.

So Sumangal, all India, I believe the demand would be negative or zero or between minus 0.5% to 1%. As for specific regions, I wouldn't have exact percentage colors, but the direction which we have indicated our basis, whatever information we have but till we have competition results declared, we will not be able to comment on that.

Okay. But sir, east and south, I mean there are a lot of down arrows, I mean a firm decline on our volumes in these 2 regions or...?

We have grown.

Okay. Got it. Sir, second question on the fuel cost versus what we are doing at around INR1.85. I mean I understand that trajectory is downwards and difficult to, say, guide on the time line. But just for our understanding, at the spot level of pet coke say around $95-odd, what would be the cost? I mean, of course, time line will depend on inventory, but some...

Okay, understand, understand. And just the last one. I mean for India Cements, we are expecting the CCI by about November end or December?

No, it's difficult for us to comment. Typically, after we have responded through their queries, it could take 2 months, it could take 3 months, depending upon any further queries.

Okay. But based on the queries, do we see any risk or any?

No risk. It's only a matter of time. These are, I would say, statistical questions, which CCI also needs to be sure about by analysing the way they ask questions that there is no consolidation or there's no monopolistic situation in any micro market. That is what they analyze, so we don't foresee any challenge in getting the approvals. It's a process one has to follow.

Thanks Sir, all the best.

The next question is from Parth Bhavsar from Investec.

Sir, I have 1 question. So we are adding approximately 15 million tons this year, and we have acquired Kesoram and India Cements . So going ahead in a situation where the demand is not strong so would we go after market share gains? Or how would we go about the market share?

And so our game plan, long-term game plan is always profitable growth. I think these two would sum up what we want to do. We want to grow. We want to deliver profitability also.

Okay. So you would like holdup your pricing like just in case and you won't go after market share?

Why I would drop prices, it's day -to-day business. So tomorrow, God forbid, if there is a war, then anything could happen. So as of now, given the status quo, we expect the demand should start rising. And I'm still looking at double-digit growth for H2, which will deliver our numbers. And you will see improvement in profitability.

The next question is from Shravan Shah from Dolat Capital.

Yes. Sir, double -digit growth for us for H2 and for industry, how much we are looking at for H2?

I think we will deliver better than the industry.

Okay. Okay. Got it. And is it possible, sir, in terms of the 68% utilization for second quarter, can you break it down region-wise for us, how was the utilization?

Would be average plus/minus here or there.

Okay. And capex for full year, last time we said INR8,000 core to INR9,000 crores so...

We will spend that money. We are on track. We will spend that money.

For next year also the similar run rate one can look at? Atul Daga Yes. Because after concluding this year, we would have almost 20 million tons of expansion to complete, which will see its regular outflow.

Okay. And in terms of the cost saving that previously we have talked about around INR300-odd per ton. Definitely, we have also given in terms of the line item -wise but how much we have already achieved this year and next year possible, if you can say how much more cost reduction from here on we can look at?

Yes. So instead of doing on a quarter-to-quarter basis, it is not logical and I'll explain that to you. We will definitely showcase at the end of the year, what the achievement has been. And now to come to the point why each quarter is not relevant because for example, lead distance, we have reduced substantially. But being monsoons, lead distance went up 1 kilometer or 2. Does that mean that I have lost? No. The downward movement in lead distance is ongoing, and we will reach our targets. So at the end of the year, we will publish the performance against the target s which I spoke about, I was vocal about each and every number. We will publish our performance at the end of the year.

Next question is from Navin Sahadeo from ICICI Securities.

Two questions. So, while we are awaiting regulatory clearances at both Kesoram and India Cements deal, is there any initial assessment done as to the capex that may be required at both these entities to bring the quality of the plants at par to our operating standards?

So, after CCI approval for Kesoram was received, we have done our deep dive, and we will invest in WHRS for Kesoram. And there will be other minor capex program, which will be undertaken. Rupee terms might be INR400 crores, INR500 crores over a period of 2 years to bring it up to the level of performance of UltraTech. As for India Cements, nothing as yet. We will follow the law. We will await CCI approval before we start engaging with them.

Understood. And I'm assuming that the yearly targets that you have given -- and thank you so much for giving that, but it gives us more conviction to build in that -- those kind of cost savings. The yearly target that you have given for waste heat recovery, I'm assuming they are not...

I think I -- let me pre-empt you, it does not include the acquisitions.

Understood. And sir, second is just a clarification. Did you mention that the current pet coke at the current low levels of pet coke prices, not much transactions are happening?

Correct.

So, is it because the seller is not willing to or we are expecting further decline? How should one look at...?

The next question is from Ritesh Shah from Investec.

Hi, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. C ouple of questions. Sir, first at industry -wide, what is the sort of capacity additions that you are expecting say this fiscal and next two fiscals?

Full year, we would see about 30 million tons of capacity this year out of which UltraTech would be 50%. Next year, again there should be 30 million tons and UltraTech being a main driver for that growth.

Sir, earlier you had given a number of 35 to 40. So is it a few companies are scaling back to your knowledge, how should one read into this?

No, not scaling back, there are delays. So it might not get commissioned on time is what I meant, Ritesh. That's why the number gets scaled out.

Okay, that's helpful. Sir, my second question is you have indicated on sustainability bond, I think the prior one the coupon was at around 2.8%. Is it possible that you can break up that number of less than 7.25% into hedging cost and the actual coupon?

Sure. Saurabh, do you want to give that?

Yes. The cost of the bond is -- the hedging cost is about 3%. The total cost of the bond including the spreads around 4%.

Sir, I could not hear, sorry.

So the spread including the SOFR is around 4%. The hedging cost is around 3%.

That helps. And sir, last question.

And since you touched upon it, I feel so glad or thrilled about it that the domestic market borrowing cost would be about 7.5%. So, UltraTech is capable of raising dollar -denominated debt fully hedged at very competitive prices.

Yes sir. Sir, last question, you emphasized a lot on cost. My basic question was, do you consider discount as a cost. And the reason to ask is if I look at that number over a 5 -year CAGR, the number has increased very, very steeply at almost 19% CAGR which probably is a reflection of competitive intensity in the marketplace. Sir, any thoughts on this particular variable and would you not consider it as a cost as well?

Discounts normally get netted off from selling prices and there are some promotion expenses which would be in other expenses. So I don't know where you're -- where are you picking this number up from, but it will be good if you can catch up with Ankit separately to -- and while you can do that, but I can assure everybody that our sales promotion spends or discounts will not vary -- would not have varied over a longer period of time.

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Sanjay Nandi from VT Capital. Please go ahead.

Hello. Thank you for the opportunity. S ir, can you please share the regional utilization for our company across different regions?

As I had mentioned earlier with an average of 68% almost all the locations would either be at 75% or 65% in that range only.

Okay. Got it. And what has been the clinker utilization for our company for this quarter, sir?

Clinker utilization, I think it remains strong. Just one second. Do we have it here?

70%.

70%, yes. 73%.

Okay sir. That’s it from my side. I will come back in the queue. Wish you a very Happy Diwali in advance.

Thank you. Same to you.

Thank you. Next question is from Sukant Garg from Equible Research. Please go ahead.

Sir, my question is regarding guidance on the further acquisitions that the company is in plan with. So after India Cements, what kind of acquisitions the company is looking into as of now?

Acquisitions are always opportunistic. So I really cannot comment on that.

No. I want to say, are there any in the pipeline as of now currently?

I really can't comment on that.

Okay. No problem. Thank you. Most of the questions were answered again.

Thank you. Next question is from Prateek Maheshwari from HSBC. Please go ahead.

Thank you for the opportunity, sir. Sir just wanted to ask you if there is anything to call out in your cash conversion. So I just saw that your year -- versus last year, your cash conversion has dropped to some 65%. And I think the main reason has been the decrease in your trade payables and other liabilities. So is t here -- is it a seasonal thing o r is there any change in terms? I just wanted to understand that?

Cash conversion means operating cash flow, EBITDA to OCF. Yes, operating cash flow. Yes, operating cash flow was lower because of July, September, we have built our inventories slightly receivables go up. It's typical of July, September quarter and we will start seeing positive OCF going forward.

One second, I'm just checking. It's normal, I think so there's no abnormal trend. My credit -- I think this question was asked earlier also by somebody. Has my credit terms changed? No , our credit terms are standard. There might be some payments for capex creditors which might have increased, but I don't see any adverse situation in our OCF.

Okay. And sir, just wanted to understand on the second half demand driver so would you see that the infra increasing and so the non-trade share increasing?

You see, H2, you will see infra, you will see rural growing, infra growing, urban markets continue to grow.

So very similar to your 1H drivers in terms of trade, non-trade?

Yes.

Got it sir. Thank you so much for the opportunity.

Thank you. Next question is from Amit Murarka from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.

Hi, thanks for the opportunity again. So given that we are very close to now Kesoram integration, could you provide a brief overview of 1H financials of Kesoram?

1H financials. I think they declared their results.

Yes, but they didn't have the cement in that.

No, no, I'll share with you. They delivered volumes of about 1.7 million tons. EBITDA per ton on cement was INR264 per ton. On a capacity utilization of 74%.

EBITDA per ton was only INR264 you...

INR264.

And also, what will be the rebranding strategy there now?

I think once we step into that asset, then only we will want to move forward on rebranding, if at all. We will tell you about it as and when we step into it.

So, I believe by Q3, I think we should be able to kind of include that in our numbers also.

Yes. So NCLT hearing as I told you about the dates, now it all depends upon NCLT hearings taking place. Once -- the process is once the hearing is done, order is passed, might take 15, 20 days to get the printed order, which has to be filed with the registrar of companies to conclude and then we step in big bank. It could happen in October, December quarter, sailing with January, March seems to be definitely happening.

My question pertains to the cement -- margins. If I look at the blended and reported number INR725 is already multi-year low performance. If I exclude the contribution from RMC white cement and the other operating income, this number would be closer to INR600. So as an industry leader, if that is operating at, say, close to INR600, where do we see a bottom in terms of the pricing and -- because why I'm talking about this, everyone, including you and other major players. You're all talking about INR200 to INR400 cost reduction happening over next two years. In that context, what is the certainty of these prices recovering to a respective level of, say, where margins on the cement business turns up north of INR1,000?

First and foremost, INR600 is a wrong analysis.

Anything between INR600 and INR650.

So from a INR732, it might come down to somewhere around INR700 if you have to -- or INR710, INR720. Not more than that because the -- if you look at the percentages, the overall percentage of RMC or anything else is very small. And as far as other incomes is concerned, that's part and parcel of the business. It is -- for example, fiscal incentive, it's a regular phenomena for cement industry. It will be there. So it's regular. I wouldn't want to say to call it out as one-off.

Agree. No, my point is, for you, you're one of the most significant players with better brand positioning. If you have to operate at such low levels, why should the prices not go up? And obviously when you're giving those numbers, other will also be report ing similar numbers. So where we were looking at INR1,300, INR1,400 margins for the industry, how should that shape up?

Rajesh, we will talk about the same thing. I'm noting down your questions and we'll talk about it at the end of next quarter results. Then your question will change totally. So, the point is cement industry, you cannot measure on a quarter -to-quarter basis. It's a long-term play. When an asset is being built, it does not get built in one quarter. This quarter – and I have been telling all investors that not to – well in advance before this quarter started also that this quarter is going to be depressing. How depressing or how low that I would not be able to gauge whilst beginning of the quarter. But yes, it was -- everybody knows the way the monsoons have been this quarter, it impacts dispatches. It has been -- the intensity of monsoons has been highest this year as compared to several years, which, for us, it was impacting dispatches. It was increasing our costs, which will not be there in Q3, Q4, and Q1 next fiscal. And good part is we will -- we are already seeing positive traction from rural markets, which will -- which should be very positive in the coming months. So my guess is whilst we have – looked at INR732 as a bottom this quarter, we'll bounce back. Very confident.

Sir, my first question is on your capacity additions so while -- if I look at the regional breakup of the capacity addition, it's heavily skewed in favor of South and Eastern India and some of the acquisitions, which we will do which are not factored there are also South, West centric. So how do we plan to grow market share or volumes in North and Central, where I guess you're operating at very high utilization and not much capacity is there in terms of the current pipeline at least?

So, for North, you will see organic capacity addition as part of our Phase 4 in future years. And Central being central by itself, and I'm seeing the chart that you've already seen, we have got about 5.7 million tons getting added in the next couple of years in Northern market. And this is what I -- in fact, in one question I had clarified Ashish, our diversity is our biggest strength if you look at it, 30 million to 35 million tons average, we will have in all the regions. South was having a low weightage in terms of our overall capacity balancing roughly 20 million tons. And if I go back in history, we were at 20 million tons of capacity for a very long time. Yes, the two acquisitions India Cements, as and when it gets completed is South dominant. It has a small capacity, which will get add ed in to north. And Kesoram is S outh, you rightly said South and West. So we are balanced.

No sir, I completely get that. My only point was that while we are getting balanced mix from a capacity point of view is in my view, worsening because share of weaker profit markets are -- is actually going up based upon this number at least, I was...

But Ashish, if you look at the announcement by the CM of Andhra Pradesh, within 3 years, he wants to complete Amaravati City, the kind of development which is taking place, I heard from my marketing colleagues, the kind of development of new townships and cities that is taking place, you will have huge amount of demand growth in South markets also.

Sir, secondly, some of the optimism you shared for, let's say, second half profitability, is it fair to assume that a large part of it, if it comes through will be price -led and normalization of seasonal cost. The normalization of seasonal cost is well understood, coal and all is not a major tailwind, I guess, from...

So Ashish, pricing is -- if I look at, as I mentioned, August to September, September to October, I already see a delta of 200 per a ton minimum.

Yes, so basically it's price-led, right, because on the cost side...

Yes.

Okay, thank you so much.

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Sanyam Chhangani from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Next 2 years, no expiry. FY '30, there will be a couple of mines which will expire, our limestone reserves are long -ended. We have more than around 10 billion tons of reserves all India put together. So we're not really worried about it.

Okay. And what kind of bids do we expect to place in the coming 2 years to 3 years, let's say, for further additions in limestone reserves?

It all depends on where the limestone mine auction is taking place. What is the reserve. What is the market potential, what is our intention of growth in that market place. Accordingly, we'll make our bidding strategy, cannot be done at this time because the government has also not announced long-term or, let's say, 3 year, 4 year plans of mine auctions. They happen on a day- to-day basis.

Thank you. The next question is from Rahul Gupta from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

You mentioned that 30 million ton capacity would get added each in this year and next year. And you also mentioned that there have been some delays. Just want to understand, are there structural issues...

Not our side, delay is not our side.

No, I understand that. I'm asking more from the industry perspective. And the reason I ask this question is because if I look at industry outside large players, even normalized profitability levels would make almost impractical to add capacity. Sir, does this mean that you will see accelerated market share gains even on organic capacity addition basis? Or how should we look at the industry dynamics from the next 2, 3 years' perspective, given how profitability levels are?

You asked the question and answered it yourself. What can I say?

Sir, so let me ask the question differently, sir. Is there a risk that capacity expansion delays may happen structurally for the industry over the next 2 years?

Really cannot comment about the capability and ability of competition to execute their expansion. But whatever I knew from ground realities, I told the forum.

Okay. Thank you so much.

Thank you. The Next question is from Pulkit Patni from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Sir, most of my questions are answered. If you could just give a sense for the first 20 days of October, what has been the kind of demand pickup that will be helpful for us to get confidence in the third quarter demand number, please?

Sure, sir. But the last couple of weeks will be impacted by Diwali. So looks like it will be only post-Diwali...

October month yes sorry, I should have mentioned that. Glad you did that. October month will be a slow month , because Diwali is also happening here, Diwali, Dussehra, Durga Puja, this Puja, that Puja, all the Puja is happening here. So this month will be slow. But which creates a pent-up demand, which creates a backlog. November, December onwards, it should be very buoyant.

Thank you, sir.

Thank you. The next question is from Jashandeep Singh Chadha from Nomura. Please go ahead.

Sir, most of my questions are answered. Just 1 question, before that a clarification, you said that in this quarter, UltraTech also paid onetime bonuses over and above the usual bonus that you pay in second quarter. And excluding that, the employee cost would have increased 10% quarter- on-quarter. Is that understanding right, sir?

Yes.

Okay. And sir, my question is largely on the Tamil Nadu limestone auction. Has there been any update?

Nothing. No update there.

Thank you, sir, most of my questions are answered. Thank you for this.

Thank you very much. We'll take that as the last question. On behalf of UltraTech Cement, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, ladies and gentlemen. You may now disconnect your lines.