The first question comes from the line of Abhiram Iyer from Deutsche Bank.
FY2025 Q3
Congratulations to the company on a strong set of numbers. I had two questions. One was, could you let us know what is your incremental cost of debt is at the moment? And the second question is pertaining to your upcoming perpetuals, has the company taken any plan of action to address these?
So, our cost of debt is roughly around 7%, that's the average across all the debt instruments. We have bonds and we have bank loans. On the perpetual, we keep a close watch and as you know, most of our cash flows come in Q4. We have raised the rights money and we are also expecting cash inflow on the Advanta monetization. So, we'll be taking a decision, in the next couple of months.
The next question comes from the line of Siddharth Gadekar from Equirus.
Congrats on a very strong performance. I have three questions. First is on the Rest of World revenues. The Rest of World revenues have declined by 22%. Can you just give a breakdown of what has driven the growth in the Rest of World?
Mike, would you take that?
Sure. So, on the Rest of World, from a crop protection standpoint, our revenues were down, not by that magnitude. I would say, obviously, the Rest of World is a very large region for us. We did see some softness in the business in China as well as Australia in the third quarter. And in a few African countries, as we wait for some tender business to materialize, we also had seen that get pushed from Q3. Our Q3 and now we're expecting them in Q4. So yes, so for the Rest of the World, from a global crop protection standpoint, the business was down a little bit based on those issues, and I would say, continued pricing headwinds for some of our products. Maybe it would be good to hear from Bhupen on the seed business as well.
So, let me take this further. Basically, you saw that most of the currencies got impacted and as the dollar strengthened immediately after the domination of some and we did see some impact largely coming in currency, especially as you know, we report in INR. So that is one of the major reasons also for the sharp decline. As Mike rightly alluded, in dollar terms, we did not see as much drop. But in INR terms, we saw a significant drop.
Okay. The second question is on the cost side, like we have just highlighted that over the last 12-18 months, we have improved a lot of processes. So, can you just quantify, like what is the quantum of improvement on the cost side because of our process of efficiencies and reduction in SG&A?
Well, that's a continuous exercise. On the manufacturing side, we have substantially done work in terms of reducing the cost one, of course, because of raw material, but also because of the variable cost optimization. We have also optimized our fixed cost in the factory, both in terms of headcount and in terms of power, which is utilities. But on UPL Corp, Mike, you have some more colour to give?
Well, yes, the other part of the question was just on SG&A efficiencies. And so, this has been an area across the enterprise where we've been, I think, really diligent in looking at our target operating model and finding ways to become more efficient. A lot of those efforts are now complete, and our current run rate should be in effect going forward. That being said, we're always looking for additional ways to drive efficiency whether it's from AI tools or other things. Our view is we're never finished from an SG&A standpoint, we're always looking for more ways to become more efficient, but we're quite pleased with the progress that we've made over the last 18 months and giving us a new level of cost that really allows us to compete in the marketplace.
Sir, last question is for Anand. Given the kind of debt reduction that we have seen in this quarter, are we still sticking to the same $300 million to $400 million free cash flow or there could be some upside to that?
No, I think we saw a good reduction in the working capital and we still have some ability, as I mentioned earlier, that even our non -recourse is at lower than last year, and we had guided for $1 billion of non -recourse securitization so that should give us an ability to raise further free cash flow. But at this stage, we are sticking to the $300 million. Whatever upside comes, of course, we'll be using that to repay the debt.
The next question comes from the line of Somaiah from Avendus Spark.
First question is on the pricing part. After 6 to 7 quarters, we are seeing a positive growth on the pricing front. So, you can give some color on that. So, I mean, you've been saying prices are being kind of stabilizing. So, we've now been able to take price hikes. So, the trajectory has moved from more of stabilization to now kind of a growth mode? And how do you see it going forward next quarter?
Mike, would you take that?
Yes, sure. So, look, from an overall pricing standpoint, we did see positive progress in Q3. That was largely based on comparing last year's Q3, where we had abnormal rebates and some high- cost inventory returns. So, I would say, if you look at our overall price performance in the quarter on a product -by-product basis, we're basically seeing now relatively flat pricing. So, we're getting some price lift based on mix. And so, as we drive more of our sales to our differentiated and sustainable product portfolio, that's giving us a mix lift in price, but generally speaking, across the portfolio, prices have largely stabilized and we're not in a cycle yet where we're seeing prices tick up.
But also on the different regions, if you can just give a color on is the channel inventory getting over? Is it same across regions that's the status or is there a differentiation between U.S. and LATAM. Also, in terms of pricing climate between both the regions, is it similar? Or is there any difference, please?
Yes. So, from an inventory standpoint, as we talked about in the prepared remarks, we believe that for the most part, in most regions, the destocking has been complete. And there's a good balance between what dealers and distributors are buying and what they're selling them to the farmers. And so, there's always going to be some exceptions to the rule based on price or timing of when a season takes place. But generally speaking, we now believe we're in a balanced supply to the channel and the channel sales to the growers. And so, the destocking is largely complete. I would say from a pricing standpoint, again, in the post-patent segment, those prices have been reset. They really started to reset over 12 months ago. Again, we're seeing relatively stable pricing now across the post-patent business. And in the differentiated and sustainable portfolio, which is our high-value segment, again, we're seeing very strong volume growth. We're seeing good demand for those products. We're seeing our margins continue to grow in that segment. But that's more a result of cost of go ods improvement and efficiency efforts, whereas, again, prices are relatively stable in that segment as well.
Got it. Sir, just one last question from my side. Anand, sir, on capex outlook, how we are thinking about?
No, I think we have put some constraints this year. We, as of date, we have spent about INR1,200 crores of capex, which includes the acquisition of Corteva Dithane® brand. But again, the budget of INR1,800 crores, which we had set at the beginning of the year, we hope to be below that, about INR1,500 crores to INR1,600 crores. So, there would be some cash flow protected out of the capex spend, what we had budgeted for. I guess for the next year's guidance, we'll review how based on what happens by the end of this year, and then we'll take a call on the next year.
The next question comes from the line of Ankur Periwal from Axis Capital.
Congratulations on a good set of numbers. First question on the overall competitive intensity, especially in Latin America, let's say, Brazil. We have shown a YTD growth here. But if you can pass comment in terms of the pricing competition there and the pricing uptake that we have seen, which geography would have contributed to this 5% year -on-year growth that we saw in this quarter?
Yes. Thank you, Ankur, for the question. Again, the pricing uptick in this quarter is really a result of the normalization of the rebates and the elimination of high-cost inventory, which was really liquidated to a large degree last year, at the same time. So, from a product -by-product basis, our prices are relatively stable in the market. But of course, with fresh inventory and now that we're running with lower inventory levels, that is also helping improve our margins. Now, from a competitive intensity standp oint, I would say every market has a high degree of competitive intensity. I don't think that Latin America or Brazil is unique in that way. In every market, As you can see from our volume performance, we are growing volumes. I think we are growing volumes at a faster rate than the industry. And so, we're very much focused on profitably growing our market share. We've been successful doing that based on our customer engagement model. In Brazil, as you know, we have a number of models where we work with the co-ops very closely and large distributors and dealers. We also have the Origeo platform, which is a partnership with Bunge, where we go direct to very large growers in the Mato Grosso area. That model is also proving to be successful. So, our unique approach in each market with a really strong focus on how do we engage with customers to create value for them and for farmers, that model is playing out, and it's helping us with our market share growth.
Sure, sir. And just a second bit, there is - in the minority interest, that number from a negative has turned positive. And similarly, the associate share profit, there is a sharp jump there Q -on- Q as well as Y-o-Y. Just some thoughts there on how to look at both these line items going ahead and for FY '26?
So basically, on the associate, we report at least for our 2 major associates in Brazil , that are Sinova and Origeo. We report with a quarter delay. So last year, of course, was first year. And as you know, this year, the season also started a bit late. So last year, we had a small profit, which is reflected in the numbers whereas this year, due to delay in the season, we had losses both in Sinova and Origeo and which we hope to recover as the season comes as we report for December quarter in next quarter as well as for the full year in the subsequent quarter, we expect to recover part of these losses, which we have incurred. So largely, these are because of our losses in our Brazilian associate.
And just on the minority as well.
Yes. on the minority interest, whatever is gains or losses, we have to keep them , there's a minority interest, as you know, in various of our platforms. We do have shareholder, like in case of UPL Cayman, we have ADIA, TPG who own 22%. And in case of our seeds platform, which is KKR, and in case of India, we have Brookfield, KKR, and ADIA/ TPG with 9% holding. So pro rata, they would be sharing the losses as well as the gains.
The next question comes from the line of Himashu Poorva from Sea Port Global.
Congratulations on strong earnings. I had a couple of questions. So first is with regard to the perpetual callables. I think I might have missed when you're answering somebody's questions. If you can please provide a guidance on the likelihood of this bein g called in February? And secondly, if you can confirm and clarify the amount of rights issue proceeds that has already been completed because I see headlines of around like $400 million being approved, but I guess not all of it has been conducted yet. So those are the 2 questions.
Sure. So let me take the second one first, and that probably should partly answer the first question itself. On the rights issue, you're right, we made a $400 million rights issue. And in Indian context, you're allowed to call for part payment towards proceeds of the rights issue. So, on allotment, we called for 25% of the rights issue, which is $100 million equivalent is INR844 crores. The committee has also called for the first call of another $100 million as of 30th of Jan was the book closure date. This decision was taken by the committee on 24th Jan, and we expect to get the money in by March. In our business, Q4 is when we see a large part of our cash flow from the operations coming through as we get our money against our receivables as well as , for what we have sold in LATAM as well as in U.S. and Europe. So, we are closely monitoring the situation, and we expect to soon come up with the announcement as regards to the perpetual, whether we will go for repricing or we will call them back. So that's as of now, our position on perpetual.
The next question comes from the line of S. Ramesh from Nirmal Bang Equities.
Congratulations on the good results. So , if you were to look at your Net debt to EBITDA guidance of 2x, does it include the perpetual bonds on the debt side? And are you excluding the factoring? And what are the rating agencies considering to calculate net debt, are they including the perpetual in their net Debt-to-EBITDA calculation?
So, Ramesh, thanks for joining in. Perpetuals are part of net worth, so they are not included in the debt. As regards to our non-recourse securitization, the rating agencies add them back as debt. As far as the banks are concerned, they don't consider that as debt. So, what we are telling you is what the bank ers look at and which is the simple calculation on net debt to EBITDA, where non-recourse securitization doesn't form a part of the debt.
Okay. Now a question to Mike. In terms of the structure of the industry, if you look ahead and consider that you'll have to depend pretty much on volume growth, what is a sense of comfort you have in terms of capturing most of that on the top line and maintaining working capital discipline to achieve stable and improving ROC, how do you see that for the industry and for UPL?
Yes. Thanks, Ramesh. So, look, I think as we look forward over the next 12-plus months, I think from an industry perspective, there's going to continue to be pressure on the price side. At this point in time, our base case planning scenario is that we won't see a change in the ex port price out of China. Obviously, that could change at some point. It's not a sustainable scenario where there's overcapacity and prices are basically being sold at or around the cost of goods. And so, at some point, that will likely change, but in our base case scenario, we're not assuming that in our planning. And so, I would say if that plays out, I think from a pricing standpoint, there's going to be a limitation to the ability to see much change in price. Again, if you also overlay the fact that grower economics right now are stressed. I think the growers are really looking for every opportunity to look for how they can save money and really invest in high-quality, high-value products, which again, I think that is where we're also winning from a market share standpoint. To your second point regarding working capital, obviously, that's been a large focus of us this year and it's really around our process improvements and using new tools, both AI and data and analytics to really hone-in on demand forecasting, lining up our production with a more just-in- time approach so that we are delivering products to our customers right when they need it. And so, we're going to continue with that discipline. So , I believe the working capital benefits that we gained this year will continue as we go into the next season.
Just one last thought. Did you look at the gross contribution and the growth in EBITDA margin, how much of this is sustainable? And to what extent will you be able to continue to gain from the decline in input costs? How do you see that?
Yes. Again, from a base assumption standpoint, we have seen that we're in a fairly stable environment right now where cost of goods as well as the export prices that we track out of China are running quite stable. Obviously, there's an increase or decrease in input costs. We're seeing some active ingredients, get priced up a little bit or price down depending on which way the raw materials are going. And so again, that's our planning scenario as we go forward. Based on that and the good work that we've done across our plants from Raj and his team, we are really looking at ways that can de-bottleneck or increase yields. We're able to compete aggressively in the marketplace. And as you've seen in our margins in Q3, we really believe that this is the margin profile going forward with the opportunity as we think about the next 12 and 24 months to continue to drive our new product launches, which are primarily in the differentiated and sustainable segment, which we know has a higher overall margin profile. And so yes, that's how we look at our margin profile going forward.
The next question comes from the line of Steve Byrne from Bank of America.
Mike, your comments about the NPP in the slide deck really captured my attention. I was curious to hear your view on what would you rank as the primary drivers of the increased demand for your NPP products? Is it the regulatory path and registration of these NPP products? Is it just more streamlined? Is that a key driver? Is it the distribution channel that see these products as an attractive bolt -on. They can put them into their routine applications? Or is it at the grower level where these products like the biostimulants have a yield benefit? How would you rank those as driving the growth in these products?
Yes. Steve, good to hear from you. Firstly, it all starts with the grower. If the grower doesn't see value in the products and technologies then ultimately, nothing else matters. And I think in our NPP business, the strength of our portfolio, the capability of our sales organization and the investment that we've made in helping train our sales team, providing them the right tools that they can walk in and talk to our dealers and our pharma customers about the value of biostimulants, that has rea lly helped us drive that segment we've seen that every quarter this year, and we believe we're going to see it again in Q4. Now secondly, the other part of our portfolio in NPP that's growing is our biocontrol products. And so, as you mentioned, the regulatory framework in many regions, not Europe, but many regions outside of Europe has a fast track for biocontrol products to enter the marketplace. And so, in those markets, like Brazil, for example, we're seeing really strong success of new technologies that we've introduced in the last couple of years, including a technology and a product called Nimaxxa®, which is a 3-way fungicide for controls of nematodes. We've just got that same product registered in the U.S., and so we're now starting to commercialize that product in North America. So, it's a bit of a combination, Steve, but it all goes back to the grower. We've got to prove to the grower that these products add value on from an agronomic and economic standpoint. And as we do that, we're seeing real success across our sustainable platform.
And one more for you, and that is in the U.S. market, are you seeing any increased interest from either the wholesale or the retail distribution channel to be more interested in, say private label products or potentially more interested in something other than the primary branded products that they have contracts with. Is there increased interest in that? And is that an opportunity for you because you provide the certainty of supply that if they were to just go directly to active generic out of China, there may be less certainty on the supply, particularly with tariffs.
Yes. That's a good question, Steve. As you know, the distribution network in the U.S. and North America is very consolidated. There’re 5 or 6 large players. Each of them having some segment of their crop protection business in what you would call a private label approach, whether that's 10% of their sales or up to maybe 25% of the sales, depending on the strategy of the distributor, we've always viewed that as an opportunity. I would say that segment is growing slightly, it's not transforming in terms of the percent of the market. Again, I think each of the distributors looks at it a bit differently. And so, where there's opportunity, we are growing that part of our business. Again, I think it's based on the quality of our products, the fact that we can compete aggressively on price and lastly, maybe the uncertainty over tariffs from China, all of those things contribute, I think, to the ability for us to continue to grow that segment. Now, in addition to that, though, we're also very interested and continue to drive our branded sales in North America. And we have a number of new products that we've launched in the past few years and many products in our pipeline that are coming forward. And so, we'll continue to have a mix in North America of branded products that are going to create value for our customers and for us as well as compete in that more B2B market for that private label business.
The next question comes from the line of Abhijit Akella from Kotak Securities.
On the other comprehensive income, there is a negative item of about INR578 crores. Just to confirm whether that is related to the impact of rupee depreciation on the US$loan book that we have?
Large part of this is that.
Yes. So, we did experience in the second quarter some Chapter 11 bankruptcies that did have an impact on our business. One of our large distributors went into Chapter 11 in our second quarter, and we announced at that time an ECL of approximately US$8 million as a result of that Chapter 11. Since then, it's been quiet Q3 for us. I don't know that we've had any of our distributors file Chapter 11. The market is in Brazil right now, the soybeans are approaching the harvest season. There's a good crop that's coming. The fact that the local currency has devalued against the U.S. dollar actually helps the farmers a little bit when they go to commercialize their soybeans. And so we're expecting coming out of harvest, which is going to happen in the next 30 to 60 days in Brazil that there's going to be a fairly good liquidity at the grower level and when growers have good liquidity, they're going to pay their bills with deal ers and distributors. And that, in turn, helps provide liquidity across the market. So, I think there is still some risks what we see that banks are being more cautious in terms of their lending into the ag community, but generally, we're expecting this to normalize. And again, I think at the heart of your question, we're not seeing any additional bankruptcies that we experienced in Q3 or, of course, are expecting in Q4.
That's really helpful. And just one last quick one for Anand, if I may. On the employee cost, please, there's a significant decline in employee cost quarter -on-quarter. So, is this a good run rate to model for subsequent quarters?
Well, we have restructured some of our operations, and that has resulted in a reduction in the employee cost. And I would say, it's a good benchmark, although if we do all well in Q4, we might see some of the bonus provisions coming through, in which case, cost can go up marginally. But otherwise, this should be a good benchmark.
The next question comes from the line of Bhavya Gandhi from Dalal & Broacha Stock Broking.
Sir, if you can just help me understand the cash flow that we are going to generate out of Advanta debt repayment? Basically, I'm looking out for year 1, year 2, year 3 debt, gross debt and net debt if you can help me understand that.
I mean, let's go step by step. This year, we will have $200 million coming from rights issue, about $350 million coming from Advanta monetization, of which, as I mentioned earlier, $100 million will be primary issuance, which money will be used by Advanta for its capex or for its own growth initiatives and $250 million is going to be secondary sales by UPL Limited, which will entirely go towards repayment of debt. So, we are talking about $450 million rights plus Advanta monetization plus another $300 million free cash flow coming from operations. So, all these three, that is $450 million plus $300 million, $750 million will go towards repayment of debt. As you know, we have one scheduled repayment of loan, which is expected in September of 2025, of $250 million. We have the perpetuals which are up for repricing or repayment between February and May of this year, which we will decide later in February or so. We have, in next financial year, $200 million additional coming from the rights issue plus the free cash flow, which would be generated during that financial year. And in FY '26, we have close to about $750 million and in FY'27, we have $900 million. So, I would say, immediately sometime in 2025 September, $250 million is what is payable. And against which, as I mentioned earlier this year, itself, we should have close to $750 million of free cash flow available.
So roughly, can you sum the number and provide the gross or net debt levels for maybe next 1 or 2 years?
The way we look at it is we are first targeting to go Net Debt-to-EBITDA to below 2X. And we expect to remain between, 1.5X to 2X, or maybe go a bit lower than 1.5X. And which means if you are talking about $1 billion of EBITDA this year, then our net debt should be at about $2 billion next year and the following year, with EBITDA further growing, we are looking at set of anywhere between, I would say, $1.5 billion to $2 billion.
Okay. And would it lead to any improvement in the average cost of borrowings, which is at 7%?
Most of our debt is linked to the SOFR rate. Now if the SOFR rate comes down, it would not only reduce our term loan debt which is linked to SOFR, but also our working capital cost. So, both will come down because most of our borrowings, except for our bonds are linked to the SOFR rate.
So roughly, what would be that rate be?
Well, we have a spread of anywhere between let's put it at 175- 225 bps. That's the spread which we have. SOFR is currently at about 4.5% or 4.6%. So now if SOFR comes down, then you would see the reduction in the spread. We expect the spreads to improve by about 35 to 50 basis points., sometime by mid of July -August because when we got downgraded from investment grade to BB rating. We did see spreads on our existing loan go by 35 to 40 basis points. And we agreed to that increase on subject to if we come back to below Net Debt to EBITDA of 2X, then the same would be rolled back. So based on our financial results of March 2025, we intend to go below 2 X, and we inte nd to approach the banks to reduce it by that 35 to 40 bps increase, which we have given to them.
Got it. Just one more thing, if I can squeeze in. If you can just mention the capex trajectory for maybe next 2-3 years?
I mean, generally, we guide for 1 year where our capex is where in the range of about $250 million to $300 million split, I would say, between almost equally between product registration and investments in new capacities. I think we would be maintaining those around that $250 million to $300 million. But you'll get some more color on that at the Capital Market Day when we announce our annual results and give guidance for the next financial year.
Next question comes from the line of Love Sharma from JPMorgan.
I have more of a follow -up from the previous question. If you could just highlight, I think, in some of the bank loans, you also had these covenants, which probably you had some relaxation available from FY 2025 or 2026? If you could just update what is the status there and I think it's similar to the previous question, given the sizable maturity, which we have from next year mainly, the thought process would be to refinance, I believe at some point. If you could just indi cate what is the ideal way for you to refinance that through bank market or you think potentially through public bond markets as well?
So, I will take the second question first. I mean, yes, we have some payments, and we're closely watching. I mean, till the nomination of Mr. Trump, we saw nicely the rates coming down. But now with the inflationary rhetoric, which we are hearing, rates have spiked up back. We're still talking to some of our bankers, we are expecting at least 1% to 1.25% reduction during this calendar year. So, we'll be closely watching that. The good part is the spreads have come down considerably. So that's positive. And I think with our cash flow s also improving, we are expecting some improvement, which in other words, means reduction in the spreads. So probably, we will look at it, as you know, it depends on how the markets are, but we would look at either a bond or a term loan, whatever is most favorable and what gives us flexibility of repaying So that's what we would be considering. The first question was related to?
Thinking on the bank loans, again, you had some of the…
On the bank loan, now what we have agreed for a 35 to 40 bps increase, we said that for March '24, Net Debt-to-EBITDA of about 4.5, for March '25 at 4 and for March '26 at 3.5.
But you just mentioned, so in case you achieved, let's say, something like 2x for March '25 itself, and that gives you the rollback on 35, 40 bps of repricing, which you had?
That is correct.
The next question comes from the line of Rohit Nagraj from B&K Securities.
Congrats on good set of numbers. Two questions. First thing that we have seen a very serious tightening of working capital over the last few quarters. If the competitive intensity increases incrementally, is there any chance of it getting loosened or is it an irreversible process and this will be the normative working capital that we will be following incrementally?
Yes. Rohit, I'll maybe answer that from a global crop protection standpoint. So, with the working capital gains that we've made on a year -to-date basis have really come from both inventory management as well as shortening terms on our invoices, our DSOs. I think we're at a level where both are sustainable and probably additional opportunity on DSOs. And so, we're going to continue to focus on that. Again, part of that is how do we match up our deliveries to customers. So that they get it right before the season, and so we can shorten that time from when it's sitting in the warehouse to the time it moves to their customer. So that's an opportunity for us to continue to align our production scheduling. And then just generally, I think the challenge in the industry and the margin pressure that the industry been, I would expect to see some continued reduction in overall DSOs across the industry. As everyone is trying to manage working capital, everyone is dealing with interest cost and so I would expect to see over the next 1 or 2 seasons, some continued improvement at the industry level, which, of course, allows us to participate in that as well. So, I think we're at a sustainable level with some opportunity to continue to improve.
Got it. And second question is on the margins front. Given that I assume most of the efficiencies are already embedded in current margins , there is a little scope for further improvement. Obviously, it's a continuous process, nonetheless. But in terms of incremental scope to expand the margins, it's relatively limited. Is that assessment correct?
I would say, with our current portfolio and the cost assumptions we have and the pricing assumptions, that's generally correct. However, our innovation pipeline is very strong. As we talked about, we have approximately $85 million of new product launches t his year. Those products are going to scale up again over the next 3 to 5 years. We've got more new products coming next year and the year after that. Our new product launches are heavily skewed to our differentiated and sustainable portfolio, which has a significantly higher margin profile. So , I would expect that the growth that we see in our business going forward, especially from these new products, they're going to come at a higher margin, which is going to have a positive impact across our margin profile.
Mike, on the contribution margin, for just taking the point that you mentioned about the contribution margins. So, with the mix that you have in mind, which can change with the higher contribution products coming through, I mean, what is the extent of gross contribution margin expansion that we can see in the best of the cases as we go forward? It's like 100 to 200 ba sis points? Or is this a minimal sort of contribution increase margin increase over where we are or where we finish the year at?
Yes. So, Nitin, look, I would say, in any given quarter, the mix profile is going to have some impact. And as we look at our Q4 that we're participating right now, we actually have a strong mix of our differentiated sustainable portfolio. So , from a Q4 standpoint, we would expect margins to continue to be strong as they were in Q3. And then I would say, as Anand answered earlier, in May at our Capital Markets Day, we'll provide more color on how we see the business evolving in FY '26 and beyond. And so that is part of our working process right now. As I mentioned earlier, we know we've got a strong pipeline of new innovative products that are heavily skewed to the differentiated sustainable portfolio. And so , I would expect as we get ready for our Capital Markets Day, we'll have more shape and color on that. And overall, there'll be margin accretion, I would expect as we think about the future.
Ladies and gentlemen, we have one last participant which is from the line of Krishan Parwani from JM Financial.
Yes. So, assuming we're right on the restocking being largely complete. I think from a volume standpoint in the next 12 months or, call it, FY '26 in our business, I think at the industry level, it's going to be mid to low single -digit volume growth. Again, our ob jective and what we're seeing this year with our market share gains, I think that momentum will continue to propel us. But at an industry level, I think it's going to be a little bit less than the number you suggested.
Got it. And secondly, the interest cost coming down to INR730 crores this quarter. I can see that, that includes INR98 crores of profit rising from hedging. So, is the rest of the benefit on account of debt reduction or your interest cost has also gone down?
I mean, Krishan, you would appreciate that, with the price table coming down overall, because the hedging cost of this fee, which is a differential of the interest rate between different countries. Those would come down as we see the drop in top line for the full year. So that's one. But also with the interest rates, we saw them at least for the first 9 months, there was a re duction in the interest rates we saw and which in turn resulted in reduced, what we call the forward margins, forward hedging costs. So that helped us to bring down the cost. This is essentially a function of what is the interest rate differentials between the 2 geographies . And we try to remain as we have always said, fully hedged, but we also see for opportunities if there are like for instance in Brazil, if we sell against customers who buy all the sold in Brazilian Real, but it's linked to the dollar of the day, then we have a natural hedge available there. So besides some of the countries, , currencies have stabilized. You saw Argentina, I think the hedging costs have come down significantly lower. Similarly, we have seen some reduction in Turkey. In Russia, we don't sell much but whatever we sell , we try to sell it against rupee denomination. So, these are some of the initiatives which we have taken, and which has helped us to bring down the hedging costs.
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our question -and-answer session. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Anand Vora for his closing comments.
Thank you very much for joining us on this call. If you have any follow -up questions, feel free to reach out to Anurag Gupta or myself, and we'll be happy to answer that. Thanks once again for joining us on the call.
On behalf of UPL Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us and you may now disconnect your lines.