GHCL Limited

If you look at the Q4, is approximately around the GAAP is something around 15% -- minus 15%.

We will have something around 5% to 6% volume growth in terms of the chemical soda ash. Along with that, we will also have some volume growth into the sodium bicarbonate. Sodium bicarbonate volume growth in terms of the tonnage will be very significant, around 20% to 25%.

It's a very dynamic situation at this point of time. On one side, China growth is phenomenal in the soda ash demand side, while in Europe and U.S., the demand has slowed down. It depends on how the dynamic situation changes. However, I believe India will have a significant advantage next year due to solar glass investments planned in India, encouraged by the recent duty exemption for solar glass imports.

In China, despite some facilities shutting down, new investments in Mongolia have balanced demand and supply, making them a net importer. The future will depend on two factors: significant growth continuing and recovery in the housing sector.

This year, we expect around 25% growth, with a further 20% to 25% growth next year. This growth is driven by increased demand for sodium bicarbonate in flue gas treatment.

The expected IRR is around 16% to 17%. The first phase is progressing, and we plan to have a capacity of around 1.1 million tons by 2030.

Currently, sodium bicarbonate contributes around 6% to 7% of total revenue. Prices are stabilizing, but they are lower than the long-term average. If the soda ash situation improves, this will also improve.

This land allotment is significant for GHCL, allowing for expansion in salt and bromine projects. The bromine project will open next year, and it will take 2 to 3 years to develop the salt field and infrastructure.

The Indian demand for glass is not showing significant growth, including solar glass, due to imports from China. However, with the import duty exemption being reinforced, we expect significant growth in solar glass next year.

There was around a 16% reduction in imports compared to Q4 of last year.

Not really. It's almost flattish compared to the last quarter.

Currently, the demand is in a negative zone, but it is uncertain how things will shape up. Our focus is on becoming more cost competitive and growing from here.

On peak level, we anticipate around INR 100 crores in top line from the vacuum salt project.

It's very difficult to predict due to dynamic global changes. We believe prices have bottomed out, and costs are flattish. Ideally, margins should sustain as coal prices are not high.

It's difficult to talk about specific numbers, but sodium bicarbonate growth will happen next year, along with bromine and vacuum salt. Soda ash volume should remain flattish.

The project is on the existing salt field, providing a competitive advantage. We are on schedule and getting benefits from productivity enhancements. This project will help mitigate costs and support bromine growth.

Currently, it is around 35% to 37%, with plans to increase to 40% to 45% through expansion and productivity improvements.

Yes, the new salt field will support both the existing soda ash plant and the greenfield project, providing bromine opportunities.

The margin improvement is due to cost control initiatives. The volume growth and realization are flattish, but the initiatives are sustainable and will continue to provide advantages.

Yes, that's correct.

It's difficult to comment on this, but we are focused on cost control.

We have a very strong balance sheet with around INR1,000 crores of cash and we are completely debt-free. We believe in maintaining a 1:1 debt-equity ratio to support growth. The spending will depend on project progress, including environmental clearances and ongoing capital projects. Significant spending will occur this year and next year.

The journey towards cost competitiveness continues, and while we have made progress, market conditions will ultimately affect overall margins. If current conditions remain stable, we expect to maintain our margins.

The cost-cutting journey is ongoing, with many opportunities for improvement. We challenge costs daily and expect to continue making progress.

Currently, around 35% of our salt is captive, and we aim to increase this to 40-42% through productivity improvements and new land allotments.

Expansion may slow due to current margins and capital costs. Despite new capacities, we believe the market will stabilize as global players balance supply and demand. The introduction of new technology in China may also impact margins positively.

Over the next 5 to 6 years, we anticipate a capex of INR7,000 to INR8,000 crores, which includes the greenfield projects and other capital allocations.

We expect a demand growth of 2 to 2.5 million tons annually, driven by solar investments and green energy initiatives. This should help balance new capacities being added.

I am positive about demand growth next year, expecting a recovery of 5% to 6% due to new solar investments and inquiries. Pricing will depend on global conditions, but we believe prices have bottomed out.

Currently, the natural market is in Europe. Two things likely to happen: demand should gradually improve, or if it does not improve, there will be pressure on European manufacturers to scale down. Recent closures, like Solvay's in Europe, indicate that restructuring could happen. In the long run, the business will continue to drive performance depending on management. We have a strong foundation and are now focusing on capital allocation towards growth, with new projects in bromine, vacuum salt, and expansions under consideration, which will add value for stakeholders. We will remain competitive and challenge our costs to maintain our leadership in this business.