Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. The first question comes from the line of Vibhav Zutshi from JPMorgan.
Feb 2026 call
Congratulations on the strong quarter. First question is on the KGPL pipeline time line. Sir, what is the confidence that this will get commissioned by June because there have been some news flow about some challenges in respect to land compensation. So yes, I mean, we were expecting it to get commissioned by March and now the time line is June. So just some thoughts on your confidence level?
So we have been given to understand that most of the 3,900 kilometer pipeline is done, except for the last 8 to 12 kilometers, which is underway. Work is currently on. So we expect and there's reasonable confidence that by June, it should get operationalized. We believe in some stages, even gas fill has happened, mainly, I think, Kandla, Ahmedabad, so to say. So it's there, almost the last bit is left. This is why we said June and not April or March because just keeping in mind some contingency, June appears to be fairly realistic as of now.
Okay. Got it. And just a follow-up question on the LPG imports. So if I look at the ministry data now, it looks like October to December was down. This could be largely led by base of last year because December has now seen again a pickup. But in general, if I look at the YTD number, it looks like LPG imports have slowed a little bit to just around 8%. So any thoughts on why this November data was a bit slow and how you're generally expecting the next few months going forward?
No, I think it's quite robust, and 8% is what you are saying is a growth, right, year-to-date.
Yes.
Yes. We expect around 8% to 10% import growth. And if you look at H1, it's already up than last year's H1. And yes, of course, month-on-month, it's not spread evenly. So there's inventory management and it all depends on stock management, etc., by the oil companies. But if you look at year-to-year data, yes, it's quite good. We don't see any downside as far as imports is concerned even for the current year. Sorry, on top of that, it all then boils down to what about our terminals. So like you can see, we are growing our logistics volume quarter-on-quarter if you compare year-on-year. So we are fairly good -- in a good space.
Sure, sure. That's very comforting. And just a second question, if you can just highlight -- broadly guide to capex for FY '26 and FY '27, maybe just at a ballpark?
We have said on record that by FY '27, we should reach INR10,000 crores gross capex. We are already at INR5,000 crores, currently around INR3,500 crores sort of projects are underway. So we should reach by FY '27, somewhere close to INR10,000 crores, which is what we have been saying $1.2 billion.
Our next question comes from the line of Neelotpal Sahu from JM Financial.
I wanted to understand, can you give us some color on how is the LPG versus CNG price differential going on currently? And what does the near-term outlook look like in terms of distribution volumes?
So Neelotpal, we remain with the cost advantage versus NG. And I can tell you January volumes were also very healthy. And we don't expect any difference than what we have been doing in previous quarters. The advantage remains. You see month-on-month pricing is not so important because it all depends on when the cargo has been brought in. It is assumed that all cargo will be from Middle East. It is assumed that all the cargo will be priced at M minus 1. However, because we are vertically integrated, we have got a lot of flexibility about when to import, where from to import. We have already started importing from U.S.A., lots of ships have already come. So it's becoming now a balance between LPG coming from America and LPG coming from Middle East, whether we want to import, hold, sell next month or we import and sell in the same month. So there is a huge amount of flexibility that we have versus else. So we remain confident on the volumes growing every quarter as well as on our margins. There is nothing as on date different.
Got it. So how much is now U.S. contributing to, say, our volume share and like it is the price discount that we get if we import from the U.S?
It's not a question of discount. It's a question of pricing. So the pricing of American LPG cargo is different. It doesn't follow Saudi CP. So we get some discount probably than the Saudi CP. It's $10, $15 or more cheaper at the end if you look at the net price.
Our next question comes from the line of Sunidhi Joshi, NM Capital Advisors.
Aegis Vopak Terminals and Aegis Logistics together will achieve a capital expenditure outlay of $1.2 billion with a long-term plan to reach around $5 billion by 2030. So can you share the path to $1.2 billion first? And where do you see incremental capex potential in existing and new ports, products, etc.?
So if you look at my asset, the gross asset stands at around INR 6,000 crores. I've already -- we are already executing projects of INR1,675 crores at JNPA, and we are doing another INR 200 crores odd at Kandla. We have just announced additional liquid capacity at Mangalore, Pipavav, Kochi. We are also doing a INR 525 crore project of ammonia at Pipavav. So all of this gives a signal that we are on course to reach INR10,000 crores capex by FY '27, which is $1.2 billion.
Okay. Understood. And at that scale, just wanted to understand how will our revenue and EBITDA look like?
So it depends on how soon the assets mature in terms of utilization, that is gas. Liquids are, of course, from day 1, 100%. So depending on how quickly the assets mature, let's say, after 6 months or so, we expect to earn 25% kind of an EBITDA out of the assets that we put up. That's the general thumb rule that we expect.
Okay. And also, if you can provide some color on the India's deal with U.S. for LPG import. How do you see the benefits to Aegis? What are the costing variances and where shipping from Middle East is, which is our main market versus, say, U.S. or Canada because that they would require VLGC, I assume?
So we are based in -- all our terminals based in ports are now VLGC compliant. That's number one. So we can take the ships coming from U.S. Number two, the deal with U.S. by government is commercial. It's not a country-to-country deal. It's that they would purchase -- they have started purchasing LPG from America just like we are doing. So we also have opportunity to buy LPG, and we have been doing it month-on-month maybe last 4 months or 6 months. Getting cargoes from America also, getting cargoes from Middle East also depending on the value proposition that it brings to us.
Understood. And can you help me with our gas and liquid realizations for this particular quarter and 9 months?
So we, on a consolidated basis, have 2 million CBM liquid space. So you divide the quarter revenue by 2 million and multiply by 4, that will give you the yearly realizations. Similarly, if you look at logistics, throughput. So that gives you somewhere around INR1,100 as revenue. So you have the volumes of logistics, you can multiply by INR1,100. And then if you want the EBITDA, we have always said distribution EBITDA between INR3,500 to INR4,000. So that will give you the math.
Got it. And lastly, liquid margins expanded this quarter, like you highlighted in the speech. I want to check what is the sustainable margins for this segment? And is there further scope of margin expansion due to the product mix?
Yes, it is there. And this is sustainable margin. The increase is sustainable because of the product mix as well as the location. So as we will build liquid capacities in locations which have higher realization because we are in huge consumption zone like Mumbai or JNPA, it will give higher revenues, which will pull up the average realization on a consolidated basis. Also, when we keep changing product mix, that will also provide the increase in average realization. So both are happening. But the locations where capacities are coming up are high realization locations, and also the new capacities that are coming up are also for more complex products. So those also give you higher realizations. I think going forward, the realizations will see only a way up in that sense. It will keep improving, hopefully, quarter-on-quarter.
Our next question comes from the line of Vishal Mehta from IIFL Capital.
Congratulations on continued strong set of numbers from your end, especially on the liquid storage and the distribution front. My question first would be on this 15-year take-or-pay contract, which you've signed with this large conglomerate for storing petroleum products at Pipavav. For this, will we have to build more capacity or we replace some of our existing low realization volumes with this customer? Because this, I guess, will block probably around 50,000 CBM of our capacity, which is around 40%, 50% of our existing capacity at the port. So yes, I just wanted to check on that?
Yes, you're right. We'll be replacing and there will be no immediate addition to the liquid storage capacity. You are aware that Pipavav was the -- in case of liquid only, not LPG. But in liquid, Pipavav lagged behind in terms of realizations. So now this will change completely. We are also building, for this purpose, liquid rail gantry. So that, in addition to whatever we have already agreed upon, will also open doors for more such products, which we will move in case of liquid. So at that time, if there is a demand rush, maybe we may have to build more capacity for which, of course, land is there with us, and it can be done very quickly. So yes, this is the turning point as far as liquid business is concerned in Pipavav. We're very excited, very happy that this has finally happened.
Sir, realization for petroleum would be in the range of INR300, INR400 per month?
Absolutely, yes.
Okay. And sir, on our JNPT, we said that first phase will commission by 1Q FY '27. How much of that would be of that INR300, INR320?
Maybe 25%, 30%.
Okay. And lastly, sir, distribution growth, we have been clocking spectacular growth there last 2, 3 quarters. What has -- so I understand that we now have a lot of holding capacity in our kitty. But on the demand side, is there any change? If you can elaborate what is really driving this growth? And...
Vishal, we still think -- we still are of a belief that this is tip of the iceberg. So we still have a long way to go as far as industrial demand is concerned. And in spite of that, we are making so much headway. And we are very confident, very excited for this distribution business as now we have, like you said, holding capacity. We have capacity at many locations. Most of this is riding on industrial demand, okay? So that's what is very important to note. And I think there is a lot more to go. So we need to also do a lot of work on this, and we believe this is going to last a while, the growth.
So safe to say that we are penetrating into newer industrial clusters, across regions in India?
Yes, or replacing -- it's not -- we can't call it new industrial clusters. We say that we are shifting the use to LPG from maybe dirty fuel, maybe natural gas, maybe anything else. So yes, it's a fuel. It's becoming a fuel of choice because of its unique advantages, portability, less investment needed, availability, price stability, many, many, many benefits that come for gas call propane.
Service levels.
Service levels.
Our next question comes from the line of Dr. Amit Vora from The Homeopathic Clinic.
So my question was about the business of Aegis Logistics minus AVTL, Aegis Vopak. So what my question was is, apart from Aegis Vopak's business, what would be the businesses of Aegis Logistics? One is Mumbai port, one is distribution. What else do you have or something in the future?
So we have Mumbai Liquid. We have Mumbai LPG. We have Distribution. We have Infrastructure Development. We have Sourcing and we have treasury. And of course, just to add here, in addition to distribution of LPG, now we are on verge of starting distribution of ammonia, which we expect to grow fast in coming times.
Our next question comes from the line of Chirag Vakharia from Budhrani Finance.
Sir, I wanted to understand this throughput volume is roughly around 13 lakh, 14 lakh tons. Where do you see this volume moving in FY '27, '28? Any guess or a ballpark number where you think you aspire to be?
No, we don't give guidance of any kind of projections. But we have already said in past that these capacities will keep gradually growing in utilization starting from 25%, 30% when we put up. In 5, 7 years, they reach 100%. So this is how one can take a guess about the kind of terminals that we have and the kind of utilization level they already are and how they would progress in coming times.
Our next question comes from the line of Nandan, an Individual Investor.
Sir, my question is, as you have already said that we will have $1.2 billion of capex by the end of FY '27. So can you give us an idea of the capacity that we will have, including Aegis Vopak in LPG, in ammonia and in liquid after that INR10,000 crores of capex. I mean as of now, we have 200,000 tons of LPG capacity. So any ballpark number?
We have 225,000 tons of LPG capacity currently, including Haldia, which we have recently acquired. And we are building 77,000 tons at JNPA more. So that makes it around 300,000 tons of LPG. We have around 1.7 million CBM of liquid, which we expect to grow between 2.5 million to 3 million. And then ammonia, the first terminal that we are setting up is capable to do 1 million. So this is the kind of spread. In addition, we have pipeline hook-ups, we have rail gantries, liquid and LPG that we are putting up. We are putting up bottling plants so that these are all additional assets, which enable more utilization of our terminals, more revenue, more EBITDA.
And sir, one more question. So as you said, by 2030, the capex plan is about USD 5 billion. So where do you see the company in terms of the market share for the LPG and for the liquid? I mean...
Yes, today, we are close to around 30% of capacity of India. So we are today 1/3 -- almost 1/3 of liquid as well as LPG capacity. And in LPG, we have JNPA coming up additionally as well as we may have one more or 2 more expansions as far as LPG is concerned. So I think in LPG, we may remain somewhere around 40%. But as far as liquid is concerned, we will keep growing. So we have a vision to reach 5 million to 6 million CBM in '29, '30. However, it is difficult to guess what will be the total capacity at that point of time and what will be our percentage of share. But you can expect it should definitely be what we are today at least, 30% plus. So that's what would be liquid. As far as ammonia is concerned, the first terminal that we are putting up is the first third-party storage terminal in India. So we don't have anyone else providing a third-party storage terminal for ammonia as yet other than us. We may probably go for more ammonia terminals going forward depending on the demand that we assess and the opportunity that we see. And then green ammonia is another opportunity that we may look at. I'll leave it at this.
Our next question comes from the line of Rajesh Agarwal from Moneyore.
Sir, my question is the capex, which you said INR1.2 billion, it is including Aegis Vopak and Aegis Logistics?
Absolutely, in aggregate, gross. Aggregate gross.
And sir, you said when the assets are matured, it may take 2, 3 years time, whatever. And so we can do INR2,500 crores EBITDA?
If it is 25% and the asset has matured in utilization, yes, that's what I said.
The asset will get matured in how many years, 2, 3 years or...
And sir, below EBITDA, what will -- only the interest cost and depreciation?
Everyone knows what comes with EBITDA...
No, no. EBITDA, but how much -- no, just for INR10,000 crores will require how much debt. I want to calculate the interest only.
How much debt?
For INR10,000 crores capex, how much debt will be used?
That's a very tricky question because I have a second phase equity infusion, which is going to happen. So if there is a debt, it will get again paid off. So at what point of time you will look at may give a different picture. That might be zero or not. It depends on the time we infuse. .
Thank you. Due to time constraints, that was the last question for today. I would now like to hand the conference over to management for closing comments.
Okay. Thank you very much. That was a very interesting call, and thanks for the questions. I think we are coming to the end of the fiscal year. One more quarter to go, which we are very optimistic of the performance. So we will, I think, speak again when we have our final -- in May of 2026 to review the entire year. So we look forward to speaking at that time. Thank you.
Thank you. On behalf of Aegis Logistics Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.