Devyani International Limited

FY2025 Q3

2025-02-11 Transcript PDF
Moderator

Thank you very much, we will now begin the question-and-answer session. The first question is from the line of Gaurav Jogani from JM Financial.

JM Financial

My first question is with regard to the store expansion that we have seen in Pizza Hut. You know, it's been a really strong expansion that we have seen here. And I think the same is the case with the other business segment also, wherein the network expansion has been strong. So, if you can highlight your guidance on the expansion in both of these formats going ahead.

Manish Dawar

Gaurav, if you look at on a 9 -month basis, we have added 93 KFC stores and 77 Pizza Hut stores, while we continue to add Costa and Vaango as well. In Quarter 3 store expansion of Pizza Hut was high because we were delaying the store openings given the brand performance. But there were some DA commitments that we had , and therefore we have made sure that we fulfill our commitments. Going forward, as we have spoken in the past, we will be moderating Pizza Hut expansion, and you will see even further lower numbers versus what we have done so far. So, we continue to remain bullish on KFC . On the other hand, we have added new brands. We are monitoring Pizza Hut performance very closely. And therefore, depending on the brand performance, we will take a final call on the numbers.

JM Financial

And sir, on the other brands, the higher expansion is also due to the JV store expansion that you mentioned, the food court. Is that also a reason why the expansion is higher than the other brands?

Manish Dawar

We have upped the game on our food court penetration as we have been speaking about food court expansions in the last two quarters, but the JV has opened only one food court in Kota, and that is not part of the consolidated numbers because we are not consolidating this JV fully given the auditor's opinion. So , if we were to take the JV that we have opened in Kota, it would have further added 4 new stores, one each in KFC, Pizza Hut, Costa and Vaango.

JM Financial

Okay. And sir, my last question is with regards to the margin performance , as the margin recovery is a tad better in the KFC business. However, we have seen our Pizza Hut margins even declining sequentially, despite the ADS remaining flat Q&Q. So, anything on why the margins in Pizza Hut are weaker, also can you give a sense on how the margin trajectory for KFC can trend up in the future.

Manish Dawar

Gaurav, on the margin expansion, we agree with you that Pizza Hut has seen little lower margins , but we will see margin improvement coming from next quarter because we are optimizing the marketing cost in Pizza Hut versus what we have done in the last 6 to 9 months. At the same time, we have taken some fresh cost optimization measures also in Pizza Hut as well as KFC, which will start to yield the results from January onwards. So, we are confident that as far as KFC is concerned, we will be able to come back to the margin levels that we have indicated in the past. The expansion on Pizza Hut will be dependent on the overall brand performance.

Moderator

The next question is from the line of Adithya P. S. S. from JP Morgan.

My first question is on the KFC performance. So , if I look at your ADS and margin numbers and compare that with your sister franchise, there seems to be some divergence. I just wanted to understand is this because of any region split or are you seeing any material difference in demand trend between different tiers of cities which could be driving this?

Manish Dawar

As you know, our sister franchise partner is predominantly present in the large metros because if you look at the country, they have a higher share of metro cities. And we have seen a better recovery in metros versus smaller ones. You would know that they have Mumbai, Delhi and Chennai, which are strong markets for KFC where we have also seen similar trends , however we have not seen any big divergence. We have primarily seen the KFC numbers getting impacted in Kerala, Assam and West Bengal, which are very highly concentrated because of geopolitical situation. However there also we have seen an improvement and a turnaround happening. We have seen the green shoots because of the geopolitical situation also turning around. And therefore, that gives us confidence that next quarter should be a better quarter from that perspective.

That's very clear. My second question is on the transaction growth of K FC. So, is it right to assume that the same -store transaction decline would be lower than the SSSG?

Manish Dawar

See, the APC which is the value piece is holding very well. If at all we have seen a small uptick in all our brands , as far as the APC is concerned the decline which is currently there is primarily on account of transactions. And that's where this whole initiative on the low -cost meals and the value meals and the new promotions that Mr. Jaipuria talked about will help drive the footfalls and will help improve the situation on the transaction.

Okay. If I can squeeze one last question, can you also give a little bit more color on Vaango because you have been clocking double digits same store sales growth over the last couple of quarters although ADS has declined a bit sequentially in this quarter? Can you explain what kind of trends you are seeing here and give more color on the format?

Manish Dawar

Vaango is doing well on SSSG because of the older locations, because that is how the SSSG gets calculated , the formula is one -year-old stores . During the period ended 9 months we have added 31 new stores in Vaango. The new stores typically start the journey at a lower rate and then they mature over a period of time . This is what is driving the overall ADS numbers down.

Moderator

The next question is from the line of Percy Panthaki from IIFL Securities.

IIFL Securities

How do you look at margins going ahead, especially for KFC? I mean, we are in negative territory right now, but supposing we go into a minor positive territory, a low single-digit kind of SSSG strategy for the next few quarters. In that kind of scenario, do we see KFC margins at around 17.5% to 18% or can it be better than that?

Manish Dawar

Percy, as we mentioned in the last call, we are targeting KFC to get to 19 to 20% margin at about 100,000 ADS , and we are tracking on that . It will take us a few quarters to be able to get there , but on an overall basis , we are confident that the kind of measures we have taken and once they start to kick in, we will be able to see the full results at about 100,000 KFC ADS with 19 to 20% brand contribution margins.

IIFL Securities

Understood. And these measures are more in terms of improving the ADS or are there any measures in terms of cost efficiencies also? And if you could just a little bit elaborate on them.

Manish Dawar

Both sides. It's ADS as well as the cost side. So, on the cost side, we have re-looked at how we deploy the labor, how do we consume the electricity. We have taken a relook at everything on a de novo basis , and we have taken some measures as a result of that.

IIFL Securities

Understood. Also, on international as a whole, what is the kind of growth that you are targeting for that piece, both in terms of revenue growth as well as in terms of the number of stores for FY26?

Manish Dawar

As far as the store growth is concerned, Thailand represents the largest opportunity. We plan to add about 20 to 25 stores, which is 8 to 9% of the stores that we have. And then on top , we are targeting a SSSG of about 3 to 4% which should give us about 11 to 12% revenue growth. Nepal is a small opportunity as we have discussed in the past. Nigeria seems to be kind of stabilizing as far as the currency is concerned. Our objective is to stabilize the operations, bring the profit levels back because there have been huge losses due to the currency devaluation. So , in Nigeria, we are evaluating the expansion, but there will be very small numbers in Nigeria if that were to happen.

IIFL Securities

Right. And is there any visibility on Nigeria breakeven by when we can hope for that, and what are the losses on Nigeria on an annualized basis currently?

Manish Dawar

In this quarter we have seen currency stabilizing in Nigeria. The brand contribution has come back very strongly as far as Nigerian business is concerned. Our brand contribution sits at 20% plus.

IIFL Securities

Okay. No, I am just trying to understand for my modeling purposes for FY26 full year versus a full year of FY25. Supposing if the losses go away, then how much of a swing in rupees crore could I be factoring in for the FY26 numbers? I just wanted to understand that part.

Manish Dawar

We can work that number out for you, Percy, and then we can discuss it offline basis. But again, we would like to see one more quarter of the currency getting stabilized and then talk about those numbers.

IIFL Securities

And when you say brand contribution is 20%, would I be right in assuming that generally corporate overheads for a QSR format is about 5% to 7% and therefore your EBITDA margin also would be at least a low teens kind of a number for this quarter in Nigeria?

Manish Dawar

Yes, because Nigeria is a small business, so therefore the corporate G &A is a little higher, but otherwise directionally you are absolutely in sync.

Moderator

The next question is from the line of Jignanshu Gor from Bernstein.

Bernstein

Congratulations on improving performance trajectory. I wanted to double down on one question on Pizza Hut. You said that any further growth in terms of store network or investments in marketing will be dependent on performance. So , can you guide us what performance markers you are looking for to get convinced of a turnaround?

Manish Dawar

These are ADS and SSSG numbers. On SSSG, we have seen improvement happening in the current quarter. What used to be a double-digit negative a couple of quarters back, we are almost at a breakeven level. The industry has also seen a strong comeback on pizza.

Bernstein

Okay. Is there any specific ADS number that you have in your mind or a brand contribution margin number?

Manish Dawar

We will not be able to give you guidance on that.

Bernstein

Sure. No worries. If I can just follow up on one more, it is regarding Vaango. I think we had a relative store expansion last quarter, which has slowed down this quarter. But if you do a broad backward math, it seems the 40 stores that we have sort of added in the last 12 months are operating at far lesser capacity than the remaining 54. So, is it something about the structure and nature of the format which is giving you pause in expansion? Or do you still remain very bullish about it? So, just wanted to get a handle on that.

Manish Dawar

Sure. Jignanshu, when you are comparing the base numbers to the new additions, it is important to note that the base consists of very strong operations , including operations at the airport. Vaango performs extremely well at airport, and that is what pushes up the base, whereas all of the new additions are typically in the food courts and high streets, which operate at a lower level. If we were to compare, like -to-like basis, the difference is only about the maturity profile of a store.

Bernstein

Okay. And hence, is the S SSG, let's say, 9.6% this quarter, is it different for , let's say, airport stores versus non -airport stores? Is that something you would feel comfortable right now?

Manish Dawar

It will be similar.

Bernstein

It will be similar. Okay. And lastly, in ADS terms, then you would expect it to sort of stabilize at a lower level than it was earlier, as the mix of stores moves towards more high-street.

Manish Dawar

Correct.

Moderator

The next question is from the line of Devanshu Bansal from Emkay Global.

Emkay Global

Congratulations on reaching the sto re milestone. Manish, last quarter we talked about experimenting with some marketing and pricing promotions in select markets, right? So , how has been the response to such initiatives and what is the margin impact of this in the current quarter?

Manish Dawar

Devanshu, it's been a mixed bag. We have seen a good response on the KFC side to these promotions. We have not seen such a good response on the Pizza Hut side. So, therefore, it's been a mixed bag. But on an overall basis, we think things are moving in the positive direction , and therefore we are going to be recalibrating the marketing spends from January onwards.

Emkay Global

Understood. Sir, just a follow-up on this. So , Q3, it's seasonally a stronger quarter, but the ADS is flat sequentially. And we have taken these initiatives where we are indicating that the response has been good. So , wanted to check the reasons for a lower pickup on a sequential basis in KFC. So, just your thoughts on that.

Manish Dawar

As we said in response to the earlier question, one is this whole location thing and then we have also seen a very strong store addition in Quarter 3. When you have this kind of store addition, it impacts the ADS performance because any new stores would start at a lower level.

Emkay Global

Understood. Last question, sir , you indicated Kerala, Assam, West Bengal are not doing well for us. So, can you either talk about the performance on the regions outside of the impacted states? Or if you could suggest otherwise the salience of the impacted states and what is the kind of improvement that we are seeing in these states?

Manish Dawar

Devanshu, we have seen a better improvement as far as SSSG performance is concerned for the states outside of these three states. These three states also have improved, however these states have bottomed out and are not in line with the rest of the states. We should see a better kind of picture in these states with the geopolitical situation stabilizing.

Emkay Global

Qualitatively can you sort of indicate as in what is the difference of SS SG in these regions and outside of these regions? Just to get a sense as in how things may turn up when sort of these states also recovers.

Manish Dawar

We will not be able to give you the exact numbers, if you look at the range of states that we operate in, on the highest side probably the SSSG improvement sits at 10 - 15% plus. These are low weight stores , which may not be adding so much weight . The range is wide and it's not just a narrow range that we can tell you and you'll be able to apply in the model.

Moderator

The next question is from the line of Tejash Shah from Avendus Spark.

Avendus Spark

My question refers to your comment that the commitment was also one of the triggers. I am sure it was not the sole intention to expand or go aggressive on Pizza Hut store expansion this quarter. So, given the subdued demand environment which you called out and the Chairman also called out in his opening remarks, I just wanted to understand how much flexibility do we enjoy on the expansion commitment? Was there an option to delay it considering that demand is still not in great shape?

Manish Dawar

If you look at our openings on Pizza Hut this year are lower versus the previous year. And therefore, there is flexibility available. But again, at the same time, we are very cautious that we should not be defaulting on our agreements, and the DA works from January to December period. So, therefore, we will be recalibrating Pizza Hut as we go along.

Avendus Spark

Manish, given the team's experience with power cycles, we have seen first time in the listed phase, so, just wanted to understand, does aggressive expansion typically pursue during downturns? Does it benefit us in full recovery cycle? Or do you want to wait for demand turnaround before acceleration on store expansion? Just wanted to understand from past experience what has been more remunerative among these two strategies.

Manish Dawar

Tejash, see, it is a chicken and egg story, if you were to look at our experience, the way we expanded during COVID time when nobody else expanded and post-COVID we have seen great results because of that. This business is not about putting up a large factory where you create a capacity and then you can utilize for , it's a brick- and-mortar business. We have to create store by store and therefore if we miss on the real estate opportunity , it's gone forever. If we are not able to create that whole bandwidth, we will miss the opportunity. If we were to say that there's a downturn of three years and we will be able to open 400 stores together in the fourth year, it's physically not possible. So, it's a very different nature of business , and that's the reason we are kind of at it because eventually, if we all believe in the India story and we all believe that India will grow, the economy will grow , and the consumer sentiment will improve and the consumption will come back , t hen with the new budget and whatever steps the government has taken and will be taking, we should stand to kind of gain the most. And we have already experienced this during COVID time.

Avendus Spark

Right, yes. And the last one, if I may, in the history of the Company, both for Pizza Hut and KFC, what has been the most prolonged downtime cycle that we have seen? Is this the current one, the most difficult one? Or there is a history of such cycles in the past also?

Manish Dawar

In the past we have never had this kind of scale, so, it is a combination of a slowdown in the consumer demand and consumer sentiment , and at the same time , we have also been doing aggressive expansion , so it is a combination of th ese two. Now expansion is a very conscious strategy that we have undertaken , and we are confident about expansion because all of the expansion is happening on smaller formats where the payback periods are strong. Therefore, as we see the consumer sentiment coming back, it should greatly benefit us. But at this scale , obviously we have not experienced things in the past because it was a smaller operation in the past.

Moderator

The next question is from Maruth Chaudhary, who is an individual investor.

My first question is regarding the depreciation of the rupee this quarter—what would be the impact of that?

Manish Dawar

So, Maruth, we don't have a lot of imports except for, we only get a little bit impacted by, key equipments on the capex side. But as far as operations are concerned, the impact will eventually come in depreciation. But otherwise, on the raw material side, packing material side, our import structure is very small. So, t herefore, there is not that much impact of that. Obviously because of the currency, international operations also get consolidated, impact comes on that, but that's only a translation effect rather than a transaction effect.

Okay. And next is regarding the discussions around Health Tech and Ultra - Processed Foods—can we introduce a healthier brand in our portfolio, similar to what others are doing?

Manish Dawar

Vaango is a healthier brand in our portfolio. South Indian brand is supposed to be the healthiest food in the country and we already have that in our portfolio. Within KFC also, while our dominant range is fried chicken , we have grilled chicken available as a healthier option. Similarly on the pizza, we have a good balance. Even the newer brands, Sanook Kitchen , which we have signed , is a healthier brand versus the other brands that we deal in. So, we are conscious of what you are saying, and that is part of the strategy.

Okay, just one more question, if I may ask. Instead of cost optimization, should gross margin expansion happen through the introduction of new products? For example, Yum China’s gross margin expanded when they introduced KFC K Coffee, and similarly, Burger King expanded their margin with BK Café. Can we see the same in KFC India? Can we introduce something similar to KFC K Coffee, as Yum China did?

Manish Dawar

So, Maruth, we have introduced, and we have experimented with KFC Coffee in some of the outlets. Now, this is a different strategy versus what McDonald's is doing by way of McCafe or what Burger King is doing by way of BK Café because they operate large stores, and whereas our strategy is to bring the formats down to focus on the core, to make it more efficient on the paybacks and the margins , that is how we are operating. The trend in the QSR industry has been more and more home consumption, and that you would have seen with all the brands over a period of time. Home consumption is going up for the entire industry , even post COVID. It's going up for all the brands , and therefore in that scenario , we are highly focused on the format of the store rather than large formats.

Moderator

The next question is from the line of Latika Chopra from JP Morgan.

JP Morgan

I wanted to check with you on your thoughts around this quicker 10 -minute delivery platform, which was announced by the leading food aggregators. How do you view this? Is this something which is feasible for formats that you run? Do you see this as an opportunity or a threat from a snacking perspective?

Manish Dawar

See, what they are talking about , Latika, is all around the snacking platform . And those snacks are typically ready -to-eat snacks, which have always existed . In any Indian household any quick eating snacks are always part of pantry , as far as fresh food is concerned, there is a cooking time and there is a delivery time, although we are also in discussions with one or two players in terms of how we can participate and experiment. Just to give you as to how the dynamics work, take the example of Pizza Hut, the pizza is prepared after you get the order and the preparation time itself is about 7 to 8 minutes. Depending on the pizza, it could be 9 minutes also. And then you have the delivery time. Whereas if you look at a brand like KFC, KFC operates on a ready-to-eat basis and therefore KFC can easily participate in that journey. So, we are in discussions, we will be experimenting with this. There could be some menu items which can always participate in that whole 10 -year journey, but let's see how it shapes up.

JP Morgan

Understood. The second bit was just trying to check if there has been any change in agreements or any kind of inflation you have seen with any of the aggregators.

Manish Dawar

No, not yet. So the discussions are on, because there has been a pressure from the aggregators, but so far we have managed to hold.

JP Morgan

All right. And the last bit I just wanted to check was on , you know, the three QSR brands that you are planning to bring and launch in India. The timelines remain from April this year onwards.

Manish Dawar

Yes, we are on track from Quarter 1 of the next financial year.

Aliasgar Shakir

Just a question on the outlook. As Tejash was mentioning, we’ve been in a prolonged period of a weak environment, with nearly 8 to 10 quarters of a challenging outlook . Now that you are hinting that there is some recovery , could you give a little more pointed clarity in terms of how is the situation on the ground ? After two years of a negative base, are we expecting flat SSSG, or do you believe things could improve from here? Are we looking at positive SSSG in the next couple of quarters? Also, what kind of margin expectations do you have? Will it take time to return to the 19- 20% margin you mentioned, or if we achieve 5 -10% SSSG, should we be able to reach that margin level sooner?

Manish Dawar

Sure. So, you are seeing the numbers of the QSR industry, and we have seen that kind of turnaround happening with almost all the brands. We have seen that in our numbers as well and that gives us confidence that maybe things are turning around. As we have said that we have seen in Quarter 3, which is a festival quarter and we have seen bigger throughputs happening on those festival days, which again is an indicator that the consumers are opening up their wallets. So, SSSG turning around is one of the paramount factors to be able to make sure that we kind of come back to our original margins. Irrespective of that, we kind of took the steps in the previous quarter. We have seen the impact of or the results of those steps coming in the current quarter. We are confident that, as I said to Percy's question, that with about 100,000 KFC ADS we should come back to our original margins of 19-20%.

Aliasgar Shakir

And in the current quarter , are we seeing signs because I am just asking from the point of view that, you know, there is two years of negative base, so on this base are we seeing signs of SSSG bottling out in the current quarter?

Manish Dawar

It's been a mixed bag because as we operate in multiple states and there are multiple kinds of factors impacting various states. But now with the budget coming in, with the geopolitical situation stabilizing, I think we are hopeful that things should kind of turn around.

Moderator

As there are no further questions, I would now like to hand the conference back to the management team for any closing comments.

Raj Gandhi

Thank you very much. We hope we have been able to answer all your questions satisfactorily. Should you need any further clarifications or would like to know more about the Company, please feel free to contact our Investor Relations team. Thank you once again for your interest and support and for taking the time out to join us on this call. Thank you very much.

Manish Dawar

Thank you very much.

Disclaimer

This is a transcription and may contain transcription errors. The transcript has been edited for clarity. The Company takes no responsibility for such errors, although an effort has been made to ensure a high level of accuracy.