Divi's Laboratories Limited analyst Q&A

Thank you very much. First question is from the line of Surya Patra from Phillip Capital. Please go ahead.

Yes. Thanks for the opportunity. First question is on the supply chain issue. So regards to the raw material availability, you have elaborated for the quarter, but could you share -- or is it fair to believe that the worst is behind us already, or the Q1 would be seeing incremental challenges in terms of availability of material? See, particularly, I wanted to know about the methanol because we are one of the leading consumer of methanol in the country and almost entire of this country's demand is met from the imported things. So, how are we managing that? And how would that situation be for first half of current financial year?

So, a quick thing on the supply chain management and the procurement. In the year , since the war started on 28th February, I would say the effect is there only on 1 month in the entire year. So we wouldn't see so much of an effect of what is happening on the yearly results, neither on the quarterly results because it's only one-third. If you're asking me what we are currently going through, yes, we are having difficulty in sourcing material, but we are not having any production stoppages at our end. And it is not just methanol. We do import a lot of other solvents. We do import -- we also procure domestic -- a lot of materials which require materials from the Middle East, for example, Ammonia, which is imported from Middle East. And as I'm sure you are aware that there are certain domestic manufacturers who have declared force majeure. So, the impact is there on multiple products, not just on solvents. We are reviewing this on a quarter -on-quarter basis, and we are trying to secure every month for the next 3 months, how -- to make sure that our production is continuously running for the next 3 months. So we are keeping our customers also in the loop. And it is -- right now, we can say it is difficult, but it is not something that we are completely worried about.

My next question is to Kiran sir. Sir, if the GLP opportunity hypothetically shift towards orals more going ahead, then how will that impact our supply ability, whether it should be better or...

We are supported by long-term agreements, okay, with our customers. So whether you're going by oral or by any category, okay, we don't see that to be an issue for us.

Okay. Okay. And another question, sir, since the massive GLP -led capex that is going on worldwide, so if you can give your plan for -- capex plan for the next year, FY27? And also it would be great if you can share your margin outlook for FY27, given the kind of difficult scenario, how challenging and what is the kind of margin outlook that we would be having? Whether it would be difficult to sustain this or we can see expansion considering the new dedicated project, which will be commencing in the later part of the year

See, right now, as we have shared, the capital work in progress is about ₹ 2,113 crores. And in fact, at Kakinada, we did mention earlier that we are going to do a ₹1,500 crores expansion plan, out of which ₹600 crores has been capitalized. So there is a lot of work in progress currently. And as and when we see an opportunity where there is material disclosure, we would definitely share it in the SEBI (disclosure). Now coming to the future outlook, we would say that as historically that we always look for a double -digit growth in our revenues, and that's what we would also say today.

And regards to margin, ma'am?

I mean with the change in scenarios, I would say it's difficult to project, but we would say it would remain stable. And we would -- like it's also with the situation we are currently in, we wouldn't want to throw a figure on that.

Sure, ma'am. Thank you. Wish you all the best.

Thank you.

Yes. Thank you for taking my question and congrats to the management of the call . So I have first question on our constant currency top line growth, which has been around 6%, as you mentioned in the opening remarks. So, despite doing so much capex, having so much capacity available, what is it that led to mid -single-digit growth during the year and how things change or can change going ahead in FY27?

See, we did have a capex, but most of the capex has capitalized in the last quarter. I would say more towards the end of last quarter is when we capitalized quite a bit of capex. But coming to the constant currency growth of 6%, considering the growth in revenue and the growth in the -- as well as the growth in the exchange rate with which we are going since the last year. It's something that we foresee that we would look at a regular revenue growth rather than a constant currency growth rate at this point in time because the currency is fluctuating quite strongly. And looking at it from that point of view will not show you the r eal picture of the business, rather look at it from a complete revenue standpoint.

Okay. So is there any big product like a life cycle management project, which has been slowed down during the year or anything which has pulled down the revenue down, anything on the volume side or which could have affected the growth for us during the year?

There is not a single product. See, we are a multiproduct company. We have many products in our pipeline, and we have generics and we have custom synthesis. Generics, yes, we have large volumes, and we have multiple products under it, custom synthesis as w ell we have a lot of projects under it. We can't name that one single product, we are product heavy wherein it would pull down our revenue to a considerable extent, which would reflect in the balance sheet. Yes, we did mention -- Dr. Kiran Divi has mentioned earlier many times that the generic b usiness has been quite strong volume-wise. But yes, there has been pricing pressures. And Dr. Kiran Divi, would you like to elaborate on this?

So to answer your question, while we cannot point on a particular product, we have not lost any volumes or any supply or have any supply issues with any of our customers. Generics has slight pricing pressure, but our customers also understand what's happening in the market and they have been very understanding and we have been in constant discussion in how to manage the pricing at both end. While on the custom synthesis, we have several projects. Now you also know that we do a lot of late life cycle management for our customers. While the project is going through its patent phase, as it comes to an end or closer to an end, we do support our customers in late life cycle management and the product continues to stay, okay. Maybe the volumes may go down. But at the same time, we have several projects that come into the pipeline. So it's a continuous rotation. You have to remember, Divi's has been in the business of CS from the inception. It's not something new that we got in today and the volumes have evolved. This is a constant cycle that keeps going on.

Sure. The second question I have on the margin side. Like a few years back, we used to operate at 37%, 38% margins traditionally. What has changed since then over the last 4-odd years since our margi ns have settled down around 32%? Is there any possibility we can go back to the original levels and what can drive it?

I would say that one -- the two key things that we see, the margins going more than 32% historic figure. One is the generic pricing pressure for sure. And then the second one is mainly the cost of materials that has increased. I mean, we did see the increase happen mainly during the COVID period, and then it slowly started settling down in the recent past. But again, with the war, we are seeing rise in prices. I mean, to answer your question about when would we go back to 38%, that's something we dearly wish for that we also go back to 3 8%, which also depends on the market conditions.

Sure. Is it like going ahead, if the business mix of custom synthesis increases driven by whatever projects you have already expecting to start, will that drive these margins upwards?

So it's very difficult for me to answer that, right? Because right now, we have done -- we are in -- some we are in the process of validation, like I explained, some we are going through prequalification. Some are still in the R&D state. Now these have to go to our customers. They have to go through their qualification cycle. So it's very difficult for me to say the timeline of any project. When it would come, when is the right time that these would jump in? Again, we have to see what this product is competing with and whether a new molecule is developed at the same time. So there are several unforeseen challenges for me to comment on the margin at this point.

Next question is from the line of Neha Manpuria from Bank of America.

I just wanted to check on the raw material availability that you talked about. Would it be fair to assume that obviously a lot of that availability is coming at a higher price, which would start reflecting in the first quarter fully? And also, if you could just comment on our ability to pass on this cost inflation, particularly in the generic segment? Have we started seeing generic API prices probably that have been under pressure bottom out now that we are facing cost pressure? Or you don't think it's too premature to sort of see that?

I could answer this for you -- the generic segment, while the raw material prices, we are not immune to it, we are seeing rise in raw material prices. But we have -- most of our APIs on the generic segment are backed by long -term contracts, which have variability clauses, which protects us from such situations. So these are reviewed -- based on the contracts, some of them would be reviewed every 3 months. There is a clause where it directly impacts on the raw material plus. There are different scenarios where we have long-term contracts for most of our products. And this supports us and protects us, which is basically a carry forward, which goes to our customers.

Understood. And Dr. Divi, is it fair to assume that not all of our contracts are long term and there is some amount of spot supplies, which could see this impact from the cost pressure? Or would you say bulk of the contracts are long term and therefore, we have some flexibility in terms of being able to negotiate as and when the contract comes up for renewal?

It is a fine balance between having contracts for our products. And also, we have some spot buys, quarterly buys from customers from various regions, which, again, it's on negotiation to negotiation basis, which happens mostly in countries like South America or parts of Europe, Eastern Europe or Asia.

Okay. And my second question, now that there's so much discussion about raw material pressures, etcetera, have you started seeing customers probably increase -- an increase in demand from the customer side, which you think would bode well for API prices? Has that phenomenon started to reflect in your customers' demand than wanting more volumes just to make sure there is supply security at their end?

To answer your question, I would say that our supply chain model is pretty stable. We have -- we proactively make sure that the material reaches our customer in time, and that's what Divi's has been known for and that we deliver on time to the customers. So that way, I don't think they are stocking up any material that they are foreseeing the shortage.

Next question is from the line of Tushar Manudhane from Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

Ma'am, first on the API segment, there has been a healthy pickup in revenue over the past 2 quarters, which probably in the earlier quarters, it was pretty stable. So is it -- while the pricing pressure remains, so this is like a decent volume pickup. Is that the safe assumption to make?

Yes, the volume has been picked up. We had steady growth in volume, and our customer base has been quite steady in the generic business.

Given the new molecule addition or the volume of the existing molecules?

This is from our existing portfolio itself. While we are still waiting for our customers to launch our new portfolio, what we have told you in 2026-'27, as the products come off patent. But now this is from our existing product portfolio.

So, effectively, like coming couple of years, the new products will also sort of add to this volume growth from the existing product, right?

That is correct.

Sir, secondly, with respect to Unit 3, you alluded that the production level has steadily increased and there has been some shift from Unit 1 and Unit 2. While you are not giving further details, but probably what further percentage in terms of such a broad -based percentage shift which is possible from Unit 1 and Unit 2 to Unit 3, where are we in that journey?

It's quite difficult to say a percentage, okay, because it is on qualification to qualification basis. As and when we have a product in demand and the volumes are going up, which requires proper GMP or we have a branded customers' product, which the volumes have increased and we need to create space, that is the time we are moving one of our pre-chemistry products from Unit 1 or Unit 2 to Unit 3, freeing up GMP spaces. So, the qualification timeline is something we would know about 2 or 3 or 4 months in ahead. As and when we know that customers are getting approval, we proactively start working on moving those products.

Got it, sir. And just lastly, I mean, the way the custom synthesis business has been built by Divi’s Lab, clearly, the customer satisfaction in terms of the supply of the material has been rock solid maybe even if I look back at the COVID times as well. But just one thing to understand like inventory, if I look at i t, it has been stable quarter -over-quarter, I mean, from ₹3,600 crores moving to ₹3,900 crores. And given the way the situation has sort of panned out in March, April, so would we see subsequently an increase in the inventory level in, let's say, coming quarter? Or this is the kind of the rate at which the inventory will be increasing?

I would say from an inventory standpoint, the March month has been mostly surfaced from the inventories of maybe early March. But most of the increase in inventory, I would say you might be seeing from the Q1 of next year.

Any percentage you would like to put?

I wouldn't put any number on that because we are first trying to make sure that we run good capacity. We don't lose out on our production capacit ies, and we don't lose out on our outward logistics shipments. So for that, we are securing material and we are storing material to make sure that we are efficiently manufacturing and supplying our customers.

And just last, if I may squeeze in, you also commented on increased procurement from the domestic side and correct me if I'm wrong. So is that resulting into relatively higher prices so that you secure the raw material in place or the still largely stable despite getting procurement from the domestic side?

So I would say it's not just domestic, but also it is with respect to imports like we buy a lot of solvents and we buy quite a few materials from imports. And we also try to buy from domestic. Yes, are we seeing price increases? We are seeing price increases like any other, like you're seeing crude oil, crude increase you're seeing multiple other factors in our daily lives also increase in prices. The same way, we are also not immune. We are seeing price increases. But we are factoring them in, and we are trying to pass on wherever feasible.

That's great and thanks a lot for this explanation.

Thank you. Next question is from the line of Abhigyan Srivastav from Marcellus Investment Managers. Please go ahead.

Thank you for taking my question. My first question is, can you comment on the ramp-up of Iodine contrast media and the status of Gadolinium -based contrast media that we are working on?

Yes. I want to know the status of our Iodine contrast media ramp -up and our status on the Gadolinium-based contrast media that we have been working on?

Coming to the Contrast Media, we are working with the big pharma companies. So I cannot disclose too much on the volume or how much we are producing or who we are working with because we are bound by CDAs, but we are working with most of the top players in the market at this point who are innovators. Coming to Gadolinium compounds, we are still at qualification stage because these are new molecules which are in Phase II, Phase III. Yes, we are basically tagging along with our customers. As and when they start getting approvals, we will start seeing revenues from that side.

Got it. Thank you, sir. And my second question is, you mentioned that we are seeing new project inquiries in CSM. Is there anything in particular that is driving that?

You mean to say in Contrast Media?

No, in CSM as a whole, in your initial speech…

Okay. In CS, we have several projects which are either in phase II, phase III. Some, the validations have been completed, and these have been submitted to our customers, and we are waiting for approval for them to get either EU, EDQM or USFDA or different regulatory agencies to approve them. As and when they go through the approval process, we will be a part of their journey. But, as of now, we have a strong pipeline across different -- at different, what you call, stages of development. Some at Phase II, some at Phase III, some have done qualifications, some have done validations. I think that's what you've asked for, right?

Right, sir. Sir, lastly, has there been any loss of revenue in Q4 due to logistic issues?

Can you repeat the question again, please?

Yes, ma'am. Has there been any loss of revenue due to logistic issues that you mentioned in your initial speech?

No, we haven't had any loss of revenue because of the logistics issues in the last quarter.

Got it. Thank you for what you said, which was very helpful.

Thank you. Next question is from the line of Vivek Agarwal from Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Just a second. Your background noise was way too much. We couldn't hear your question clearly.

One question on GLP -1, as you have talked about that several of the projects or several of the fragments that...

Mr. Agarwal, we cannot hear you clearly. Please use your handset.

No problem...

Mr. Agarwal, as there is no response. Can you please repeat your question or use your handset mode, sir? We cannot hear you clearly.

I am speaking back to you. I'm joining by the queue. Sorry.

Thank you. Next question is from the line of Ritika from ValueQuest Investment Advisors . Please go ahead.

My first question is on, could you help us understand broad timelines? When do we expect the 3 dedicated capacity to start utilization? Also, what will be a regulatory process that we need to go through for all these 3 new dedicated capacities?

Would you please repeat the question again?

Yes, sure. My question is on, could you help us understand when do we expect broad timelines for these 3 dedicated capacities to start utilizations? Also, what kind of regulatory process we need to have to go through for these 3 new dedicated capacities?

The 3 projects, I believe you're talking about the CS projects we have spoken in the past.

Yes. Yes.

These have gone through various stages of validation. At this point, they are in the process of being supplied to our customer. As and when the customers get their regulatory approvals, either from -- I don't know which countries and how they would apply. We will be a part of their filing, we cannot comment on their regulatory submissions. But as and when they confirm and give us the volume indication that we need to start commercial production, we would then start producing commercial quantities.

Also, from U.S. FDA or any other company -- any other country point of view, do we need any inspection or any on that regulatory process that we need to go through?

To answer that question is very difficult, right. So I cannot assume what the agency would be thinking, whether after my customer submits a file, whether they would prefer to audit us or they're happy with the previous audit report or they want to do a pro duct-specific report, and then come for an audit again. I cannot comment on that because that's a regulatory agency decision, right. So it's something I cannot comment.

Sure. Just last understanding would be, when we had disclosed our first dedicated contract, which was in April '24, we had mentioned Jan '27 as the operational timelines. So do we think that is on track or that could get delayed led by regulatory approvals with your customers?

As of now, like I explained, we have gone through validation phases. We have supplied it to our customers. We are hopeful by 2027 it will be commercialized or earlier or maybe later. Everything is subjected to regulatory approvals for our customer who in t urn would tell us as and when we need to supply commercial quantities. So this is based on a prediction on what our customers give us. We have spoken in the past...

Sure. Last question would be, could you give us qualitative understanding on opportunity in the contrast media that you are seeing, both in generics as well on the innovator front?

On contrast Media, we're substantially tied up with the innovator side of the business, where we have been supplying iodine-based contrast media in several multiples of tons to these customers and a s and when they demand, they want to increase it, they have been discussing with us actively and increasing their volumes or some of the customers have kept their volume quite stable. Coming to the generic side, we are not that active. We are more active with the innovators itself.

Got it. You mentioned to the other participant that for Gadolinium , our contract is yet to start with the products being in phase II, phase III. But in the Iodine space, we would have already started commercialization for molecules?

Yes. In the Iodine base, we are already in commercial sales. I think I mentioned this in my previous calls that we have commercialized these projects on the Iodine base. A nd like I explained, there are one or two -- there are about three major players. So few of them are increasing their volume. Some of them are keeping it steady with what they have signed with us and these are backed up by long-term contracts. Now, coming to Gadolinium compounds, this is something where we are in phase III, where they're buying quantities just for their studies to qualify their product. As and when they see light of approval from the agencies, then they would start talking to us for taking the next steps on validation.

Thank you so much for answering the question.

Thank you. Next question is from the line of Shyam Srinivasan from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Quick question first on the capex. So we did ₹1,400 crores last year. We have done ₹2,500 crores this year at about 23%, 24% of sales. It's been a very high number and I don't know whether you alluded to a ₹1,500 crores number for '27, but just checking. And typically, Kiran, we have had a 2-year correlation on when you convert c apex to revenue or some form of it. So just want to understand whether the current batch of capex, including the long-term supply agreements, is it a slightly more prolonged revenu e recognition cycle, you think or you think the historical trends of when revenues accrue from these capex will be similar?

Can you just repeat your question again, please?

Yes, Nilima. So capex is ₹2,500 crores this year, last year it was ₹1,400 crores. ₹2,500 crores is 24% of sales. Our historical average is 13% of sales is the capex number. So I'm just saying it's significantly higher. I know we are doing three long-term supply agreements, but when does revenue accrue from c apex being done? Is it a 2- year to 3 -year cycle when you start seeing commercialization leading to revenue recognition?

Sir your line is on mute.

Yes. Sorry, we were just discussing. So t o answer your question, right, while c apex has been allotted for various projects across the various units. Either we are creating GMP capacities in Unit 1 and Unit 2, freeing up the space so that Unit 3, Kakinada can take up the pre -chemistry raw materials and then qualifying these for our customers. All these is a cycle. The cycle is typically when we do an innovative product, we completely depend on the customer's timeline because we file in their CMC. We do not have control on when the product will be launched. It can be wishful thinking if you want it in 6 months or 1 year, it can take 2 years. We have seen time cycles all the way from 6 months when it's a fast approval project by the agencies and the product needs to be in the market or we have seen as long as 3 years. So it is very difficult for us to predict saying, okay, in the next 1 year we will see these being shown up into the revenue stream. So to be optimistic, we believe we would like to be in the 2-year range, which is comfortable. We have seen sometimes these are slightly earlier or slightly delayed based on -- if the agencies ask our customers further questions, further data, we don't know, a s we are not a part of it. We just have long-term contracts with supply commitments.

Yes, helpful, Kiran. My second question is just on an earlier participant's question on margins, 32%, 32.5% this year, excluding other income. But if you were to look at historically, I think during COVID we did like 40% and I recollect Nilima saying it's bec ause of generi c pricing being the difference? But last time -- at that time there was also Molnupiravir, right, that was an expedited, accelerated capex. For me, it seems to remind us of the next three long-term supply agreements that are coming. So why wouldn't the new long- term supply agreements for CS, which may be higher scale, which may be larger quantities, wouldn't that drive margins higher?

See at this point it's very difficult to comment. You have to see how the product is going to do in the market. If you look at Molnupiravir as an example, it was a COVID -driven drug, okay. So it was specific, it's a therapeutic category which the market kn ows and the customer has driven it across all over the markets. Now the products that the large -- long-term supply agreements we have is completely based on what our customers have signed with us. So I'm not at the liberty to comment on the volume, on the pricing or the costing because the technology is completely owned by the customer and I'm not at the liberty to talk about it., b ut what I can say is with the ongoing costs, increase in cost on raw materials, okay, there is a -- there is -- we are trying to minimize the impact by discussing with several of our customers and trying to stabilize it to keep the numbers almost close to what we are achieving right now.

Got it. Thank you and all the best.

Next question is from the line of Kunal Dhamesha from Macquarie.

Hi, thank you for the opportunity. First question on the -- stable kind of profitability outlook that you've provided. Is it right to say given that you don't know what time it will take for the customer orders to come for dedicated capex projects? Is it fair to say the stable profitability guidance does not bake in any upside from these projects as of now?

We are not at a liberty to comment on the upside/downside at this point in time . But, however, as we always said, we are looking for a double -digit revenue growth and that's the projection that we would like to assume we would achieve.

In terms of the RM cost increases, freight rate increases, etcetera, is it also fair to say that the INR depreciation against a major currency like USD, Euro, where we derive our majority of the revenue, should be more than able to offset some of these increases?

See, if you're talking about our imports, am I correct?

No, I'm just saying at a company level, the kind of currency depreciation we have seen versus the pull factors in terms of increase in RM cost, freight cost, etcetera. So, there is a benefit from currency and then there is negative impact of all other fact ors. Would you say the currency benefit would more than offset all these dark clouds?

See the currency benefit, because we are mostly an export-oriented company, it would definitely benefit is what we would foresee. Say, for example, currently this year our sales are about -- our revenue is about ₹11,000 crores, but our raw material is about ₹4,000 crores to ₹5,000 crores. In that, about 40% would be our imports. So how much of imports effect is there and how much of our export effect is there is easier for you to calculate from there. I don't need to say it out. Would the fluctuations benefit? Yes, it would. But when tomorrow the rupee drops, would it also impact? Yes, it would, because we are heavily on exports and we are not in the domestic that much.

Sure. Lastly for Dr. Kiran, my understanding is typically the regulatory agencies only inspect API formulation and advanced intermediate facility. Correct me if I'm wrong. This is my understanding. By virtue of that, given that on peptide side we are doing more like 8 or 10 amino acids in a chain, would it be counted as more like advanced intermediate or intermediate? What is your sense on that?

See this -- the manufacturing has to be done under GMP. So, these are qualified material for our customers, now how -- which one do they call starting material, which one do they call advanced intermediate, only my customer knows, but we are prepared for any other. All the plants, that is both Unit 1 and Unit 2, is a general cGMP facility, which is under all guidelines of EDQM, US FDA or ANVISA, across all Japanese authorities. It basically covers all regulatory requirements. So, it's difficult for us to say whether -- which one is the starting material for him, which one is advanced intermediate, because as and when he keeps adding the fragment, the fragment sits at a certain place, higher the GMP level goes up.

Sure. Last one, if I may squeeze in. In terms of, let's say once our peptide facility is commercialized, we have not given the scale. But would you say once it is commercialized, we would be in the top 2 player global, in terms of scale of the capacity?

I would say in terms of scale, I can give you a rough thing. We have several 3,000-liter SPPS, which by far in India nobody has. We are quite strong and committed towards this segment, and we are targeting to be one of the largest global players in the world.

Sure, thank you and all the best.

Next question is from the line of Dhawal Khut from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

My first question is I wanted to know the guidance on capex for the next fiscal year. That's first. And secondly, again, on peptide division, wanted to get some more details on the products that we have validated. Like what is the maximum length of the chain that we have validated, and are these fragments for one single product or the validated fragments are for multiple products?

What was your first question?

Outlook on capex.

I would say the capex, like right now we have capital work in progress of ₹2,000 odd crores. So, I would say the capex for the following year, unless we see any major custom synthesis project or any new project that's in our way, it would be a constant capex. Now Kiran would answer your second question.

So, coming to peptides, right, we have several customers, like I explained to you, where we are at various stages. Either some are in validation, some are in qualification, some are in R&D stages where we are doing small quantities for them, the fragments basically. These are various fragments, according -- it's very difficult for me to say whether it's for a single customer or multiple customers because I'm bound by CDAs. But all I can tell you is that we have a healthy pipeline and we see much more opportunities in different therapeutic segments.

Thanks all for joining us today for the earnings call of Divi's Laboratories Limited. In case you need any further clarification, please reach out to our Investor Relations. Thank you.

Thank you. On the behalf of Divi's Laboratories Limited, that conclude this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.