Thank you very much! We will now begin the question-and-answer session. The first question is from the line of Ketan Jain from Avendus.

This is Ketan from Avendus. Sir, I had a question on the hearing. When would be the expected announcement date of the verdict? I understand we have to submit our written submissions by 4th Feb. When can we expect a verdict date?

Can't say, but it should happen within a month's time.

Okay. Within a month. Okay. So, just a follow -up on this. So, in a scenario where things don't go in favour of us, what is the next possible situation or next possible thing we are planning to do?

First of all, why are you saying that if things don't go in our favour? Things will definitely go in our favour. In any case, even if they have to go with the coupling, lot of things have to be done yet. I mean, if you are following up on the hearings, they have to issue the draft regulations, invite comments on that and give statement of reason for that, why they want to do coupling. Everybody will have opportunity to comment on that. Then they will have to issue final regulations, procedure to be finalized. I think a lot of work is to be done. So, we will have an opportunity to express our views at each and every stage. And let's see.

I just want to understand how long it can get drawn down for. I will get back in the queue, sir.

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Sumit Kishore from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.

My first question is in relation to the volume growth that we saw for electricity volumes on IEX in the month of December when power demand growth improved, your volume growth was about slightly under 3%. And so, I understand the merchant price sort of firm up as the demand increases on the grid. But even in January, the demand is not as good as December in terms of growth. But so how is the -- is the slowdown likely to remain? Let us say, if India's power demand grow s 5%, 6% instead of 0% to 1% like it has been last few months, how would your power demand grow? How would your volumes be impacted in the electricity segment?

See, in Calendar Year '25, the demand in the country was subdued mainly because of the weather reason. We had more than above monsoon. So , because of the good monsoon, the agricultural load crashed and also because of the good weather, the air conditioning load was also low. So overall, the demand did not increase because of that. But otherwise, if you looked at the industrial production, there is definitely -- there is an increase in that. And since the demand growth was not there, but the availability of power was there, we have enough capacity. We had enough coal to generate power. The rate in the Day Ahead Market was lower than what it used to be. And because of the low rate, it provided opportunity to the distribution companies for optimizing their power procurement cost. So, as a result of that, even though there was no demand increase in the country, we saw reasonably good volume growth. I think it was almost about 14%, 15% kind of volume growth in the first nine months. And January month is also going strong with a volume growth of almost about 18%, 19%.

So, January is 18%, 19%. Okay.

Yes.

So, I mean, is there any correlation that if power demand actually firms up, like December volume growth was 3%. So, I was just wondering whether -- is there anything to read there?

You cannot make any correlation on month-to-month basis. Yes, we have seen that on a yearly basis, if the demand increases, definitely, it leads to increase in the volume. But this year, when the demand did not increase, then also there was a volume increa se because of optimization opportunity (which presented itself) because of the low prices. So, I think exchange provides both ways. One can purchase power to meet the demand and also when the demand is less, they can optimize the power under the PPA.

Yes, Sir. very clear. The second question is on the REC volume. In the nine -month period, you've seen that REC volume growth has been in low single digits. So , what is -- and we are hearing so much on RPO obligations and everything. So how -- I mean, why is the slowdown and what is the outlook?

See, REC volume in the first 6 months are reasonably good. But subsequently, what happened was -- one is that the compliance, which was to be done by 30th September, that time- line has been extended up to 31st of March. So, some of the buyers now they have shifted their buying to the month of February, March. Second is CERC also came out with a discussion paper on REC and wherein they have specified that in case somebody is not able to meet the RPO obligation, he can deposit amount with the Government, which is equivalent to 1.05% of the average price of REC in the preceding year. So, with this kind of provision, many are thinking that maybe let ’s see, maybe can even meet the RPO obligation by just depositing the money with the Government. So, because of this, the REC purchase is slightly low. But in any case, I think by the end of the year, we will be able to still do better than what we did last year.

This sounds like a very regressive step, right? And if you are able to deposit money and not...

Yes. We have made our submissions with the honourable commission that in case of REC, REC is based on the generation of green power. But in case of depositing money, it is not promoting renewable energy. So, we should continue with the existing process. We have made our suggestions and let's see what is the outcome of that.

Sir, just last one question. Typically, if I divide the stand -alone revenue of the company by the total gross volume, the ratio comes to less than four paisa. But this time, it is coming at less than 4 paisa. So typically, there is some discount that is there, which shows up in numbers because REC, I remember the pricing is lower and also you have some discount in TAM. But this time, it is not showing up. I mean, is there anything I'm missing?

No, in case of REC, the transaction fee is reduced to Rs. 20, in fact, for part of the year. This year for the full year, it is Rs. 20. And even out of that, also looking at the market conditions, we have to give incentives to the buyers and sellers , some amount of incentive. But otherwise, in case of electricity, I think it is around four paisa.

Yes. But if you divide the revenue for December quarter standalone, Rs. 1,439 million by the volume, the ratio is coming to 4 paisa. It is typically less than that.

Revenue also includes annual fees by the members.

In the past few quarters, it was always been less than four paisa. So, I was wondering if there is something else this time.

Maybe there is a variation in the yearly fees.

Even in the TAM trade volume, sometimes the delivery is related to the revenue recognition, it happens. So that also impacts slightly with many times realization of the trade volume.

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Devesh Agarwal from IIFL Capital. Please go ahead.

Thank you for the opportunity Sir. First question again on the market coupling case. If you could help us understand, does the case now boils down to whether the process was followed while the implementation of market coupling rather than the market coupling regulation itself? What are we kind of doing in the APTEL? Is it the process that we are challenging or just the whole regulation?

What we had challenged in the APTEL was that this order should be set aside because the order has not followed the due process of order making. The transparency was not ensured, and there was no merit in implementing market coupling. But during the discussions, it also emerged that CERC has mentioned that they will be doing this market coupling only after making the regulations. And during the regulation-making process, everybody will have the opportunity of making the submissions. So, the complete transparency will be maintained during that process. So, this order is basically to initiate the process of regulation making. So, let us see what is the final outcome of this.

There was one round of public comments that were invited on market coupling. So, you're saying for the regulation, again, CERC is required to do that.

Right. And there was some news article mentioning...

Out of the Commission, staff paper is invariably, is something like a discussion paper initiated by the Staff of the Commission. But draft regulations are by the Commission.

Understood. And so most likely post the APTEL, there is a possibility that C ERC will start the process of the market coupling regulation.

Let us see. I mean, I can't say anything on that.

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Abhir Pandit from Old Bridge Mutual Fund. Please go ahead. Please unmute your line and go ahead. Due to no response, we will move to the next participant Pranav Jain from Ageless Capital and Finance. Please go ahead.

I just had a couple of questions. So , the first one being, in your opening remarks, you said that electricity from long-term PPAs might be routed through the exchanges, if I heard correctly. Can you explain me more on that? How will that work? How will the tariffs work on that? Will it be the same process? Just a little idea on that.

Okay. Yes. So, this was point related to deepening of power market where , as per the National Electricity Policy Draft, suitable policy and regulatory framework shall be established for generation capacity addition through mechanisms such as bilateral contract settlements. So, they are relating it to Contract for Difference model where the exchanges are used to dispatch that power and whatever realization is there from exchange, that will be kept by developer and whatever is the missing money as compared to the strike price, which is discussed, that is settled outside the market through bilateral contract settlement. So, that's the intent of this thing. And this is similar to what is being done globally across Europe and other places and India also, this has been discussed for a long time. And in fact, the VPPA guidelines, which has come in the month of December, very recently, this is also very similar t o it. It is also on the basis of bilateral contract settlement.

Got it, sir. Understood. And sir, just another question on -- just to understand, sir, even if coupling comes in DAM, I just want to understand how -- because now also it will take time for it to get implemented in the Day -Ahead Market at first. How much l onger will it take if that happens -- for that to happen in the RTM market as well? Because my understanding is it is very complicated but just wanted to get your idea on it.

So first of all, for implementing in the DAM market itself, a lot of work is to be done. As I told you that there are going to be draft regulations, public hearing, final regulation. process to be finalized and a lot of things will be done. And after that, Commission has already in the order mentioned that they will look at the experience of this and thereafter decide whether they want to go for the RTM or not. Because in case of RTM, the complications are more. You have to do it 48 times in a day and the timelines available for execution of market is very short. And in case of coupling even whether the time lines is available, within that, whether the coupling will be possible or not. I think they will study all these things and then decide about that.

Got it, sir. And sir, just lastly, sir, there was this news article that mentioned that the tariffs like the exchange fees might be cut from four paise to whatever half of it on each side. What is your idea on that? Do you see that happening?

I haven't heard any such thing. I mean, there are many news items, so I don't really pay any much attention to that. But as far as the Commission is concerned, we haven't heard anything like that from the Commission.

The next question is from the line of Abhir Pandit from Old Bridge Mutual Fund.

Sir, my query is first related to market coupling. Sir, assuming if market coupling happens and if the round robin fashion is adapted, is it necessary that the volumes will flow to a particular exchange for a particular period of time? Or will it be open for all the exchanges at that period? How will it be?

It will be open to all the three exchanges on everyday basis. Buyers and sellers can submit their bid in any of the exchange. Only thing is that the bid of all three exchanges will be aggregated at one place for the purpose of price discovery.

Okay. So basically, price discovery moves to GRID India from the exchange currently.

No, no. Price discovery will be done on the round robin basis. Maybe for one month, one exchange will do. For next month, another exchange will do. For next third month, another exchange will do. And we'll keep on rotating between the exchanges on round robin method.

Okay. Fine. Sir, my second question is in terms of new products that was shared at the start of the call, right, I mean, which has come based on the recent government paper. Sir, how do you see IEX ability to introduce those products and the acceptance or reception of those products by customers and the timeline for the launch of these products?

See, when we file petition with the Honourable Commission, before that, we do the market survey. We interact with the customers and based on the requirement of the market, we file petition for introduction of the contracts. And in fact, when we do public consultation also, in that also, we have received good response from the market for introduction of these products, which we have filed with the Honourable Commission. The Commission has done the hearing. So, let us see this order is reserved in one or two cases.

Okay. Sir, just one final. For these products, Sir, what would be the total market size or TAM as such in a sense? How big will it be possibly?

See, for long-duration contract, the market size can be another 15 billion, 20 billion units.

15 billion, 20 billion units. Okay.

And Green RTM is something , because there’s a lot of renewable capacity addition that is happening in the country now and renewable capacity has large variations. So , on Real-Time basis, they will be able to make good those variations to the Real -Time Green Market. Today, they don't have any such product. So , as the renewable capacity addition increases, the transactions to the Green RTM volume will keep on increasing. And third product is basically Peaking Power. If today, we have a shortage of power for maybe 2 hours, 3 hours in a day during the peak hour time and generation capacities like battery storage or the pump storage or the gas-based plants where the cost of generation is slightly higher, maybe they can participate in this market and if in this market, the cap price is made slightly more, it will incentivize this kind of capacity additions in the market and help in meeting demand during peak time. So, that is the intent of the peaking power tariff.

The next question is from the line of S. Ramesh, an individual investor.

So, in terms of your gas exchange and the carbon exchange, how would the growth in these two markets pan out, say, in the next 1 or 2 years compared to the growth in the power exchange? And how would that impact your growth in revenue and profitability?

See, in case of power exchange IEX, it is operating from the last 17 and a half years. So, it has attained that kind of a maturity. So, growth is going to be in the range of 15% to 20%, which we have been achieving over the years. But in case of gas exchange, it's at the nascent stage. And this year, in the first nine months, the volume increase is almost about 47%, 48%. And the trend in the market is that the gas prices are going to be reduced in the next 1 or 2 years. If that happens, there will be a good traction in the market and we expect that the gas volumes will definitely continue to grow at a rate of maybe 25%, 30% over the next 4, 5 years.

And what about the carbon exchange?

Carbon exchange, in fact you know , earlier, we had the idea of starting a voluntary carbon market. But Government of India under the CCTS scheme, they have decided to launch this Mandatory and Voluntary carbon market under the regulatory framework. So, they are making their regulations for that. And hopefully, that market will start sometime in FY '27 or '28. And as and when that market starts, CERC will be the regulator for that market. So, it's very difficult to say at this stage what is going to be the opportunity in that . When the transaction starts and looking at the market participation, we will work out that.

Yes. And request for your final couple of thoughts. Also on the gas exchange, as we see growth, would you also see higher margins in the gas products compared to the power products? And secondly, what is the time line? How are you progressing on the proposed IPO for the gas exchange?

See, in case of power or gas exchange, the margins are fixed. So, our revenue is based on the volume we do. As I told you that in case of gas exchange, we expect a significantly higher volume growth of 25%, 30% in the coming years. So, I'm sure there, the numbers will be much better. As far as IPO is concerned, basically, as per the regulations, our holding in the gas exchange is 47.5% and we have to bring it out to 25% as per regulations. So, we have requested IGX to proceed with the IPO for this. So, they have initiated action. Let's see. Maybe by, we plan to do it in this year. So, it all depends on the different activities to be done and the clearances when we get from SEBI. It all depends on that.

The next question is from the line of Vijay from Spark Capital. Please go ahead.

Yes. So, there was this concept of whether coupling RTM and SCED markets would be feasible and if it's economically good, where is that right now, Sir? Or is it like only now regulations on market coupling is the priority after that DAM coupling will happen and only after that, all these things on RTM and SCED, all these things will happen?

As far as RTM and SCED is concerned, I think CERC in their order has already mentioned that this will involve redesigning of a lot of regulations and processes and other things. So, they will look at this at a later stage. They have not made any mind on that. So , at the moment, they are talking about the Day-Ahead Market. And based on the experience of Day-Ahead Market, they will think about RTM. They will take a view about RTM.

Okay. And from what I understand this, after regulation, public hearing, final regulations on market coupling… Correct, sir?

Yes, yes. Your voice is breaking.

Sorry. I was just taking how long according to you...

Can't say. It's a regulatory process, and we really cannot say how much time it will take. Your voice is cracking, Sir. There is some disturbance in the line. I'm not able to hear you.

Is it better?

Yes, it is better now.

No, so I was just...

No, no, no. I think...

Vijay, can you please work on your audio. Vijay, please come back in the question queue. The next question is from the line of Vinay Nadkarni from Hathway Investments.

Just one book-keeping question. What is the Cash and Cash equivalent as of 31st of December?

We have a total cash of around INR1,500 crores as on 31st of December. And out of that, the shareholder fund is around INR1,200 crores.

Okay. And secondly, just wanted some idea of how this Virtual Power Purchase Agreements are expected to increase demand for IEX?

See, under the Virtual Power Purchase Agreement, a buyer will do the agreement with the generating company for generation of green electricity. That electricity will be sold on the exchanges. And green attribute will be taken by the company, which is getting into this Virtual PPA. So, definitely it will increase sell volume on the exchanges. And it will definitely have a positive impact on the volume cleared also. But it all depends on the quantum of virtual PPAs, which happen in the market and the interest of the market in getting into these transactions.

Okay. And secondly, the total un -requisitioned power that is available for transaction on the exchanges, that is currently at 7%, isn't it?

Currently at?

7%. How much is it?

Yes, it is almost about 9% to 10% now. Earlier NTPC was participating. Now, we find that many other generators are also participating in this market.

Okay. And lastly, from your vantage point, when I see the GDP growth at 7.4%, 7.5% and you have the IIP growth also coming up, but the power demand is not catching up. Is there some dichotomy there? What do you see? Why is it happening?

As I told at the beginning of this conference also that this year (2025) we had a very good monsoon, more than above monsoon. And because of good monsoon, the agricultural demand had crashed. In fact, even air conditioning load was also very low. As a result of that, the demand increase was not there. But this year (2026), if the weather is normal, definitely, the demand increase is going to be not less than 5%, 6%.

Okay. So out of this, the industrial demand continues to increase, but you're saying the agriculture and the household demand has gone down.

Yes, yes, yes.

The next question is from the line of Sumit Kishore from Axis Capital.

One question is, will the depth and the liquidity of electricity exchanges -- we are constrained on the extent of VPPAs that can be introduced as they are structured as Contracts for Differences. So, at the current moment, how much VPPA can you actually introduce given the volumes exchanges handled?

I think as of now -- Rohit, maybe you can give some figure on that.

See, your point is related to how much buy is there. Let's say, if we start to execute more and more VPPAs, then all the surplus generation will come to market as a sell. So, what I understand is you want to ask how much buy is there and how much this sell can be absorbed in the market, right? So, let's take the worst case, which is solar , during the daytime and VPPA doesn't mean only solar. It could be hybrid. It could be wind. It could be BESS. It could be anything. So even if we take example of solar, on an average, during the daytime, there is 6,000, 7,000, 8,000 megawatt of demand is always there. I'm talking about average. There are extreme days where it is high. There are days where it is low. So, if we go by that logic, and VPPAs since they already have an agreement, that already a PPA is there, so they would be price takers, which means they would be putting the lowest price in their bids. That is the price point that they are placing for their sell. So, by that logic, if I collate both RTM as well as DAM, there is liquidity available to the extent of 10,000 megawatt. To that extent, there should not be any problem. And today, this number stands much, much less than 1,000 Megawatts. If I talk about how many VPPAs are there today and who are coming to exchange, this number is much less than 1,000 Megawatt, which means there is a large window available for them to come to this market and that will get absorbed.

Rohit, what we also see is that during the daytime, the sell availability is a lot higher than the buy. So, the prices are depressed. So , if you are just going to increase more liquidity on the exchange in terms of sellers, it will just crash the price, right?

No. See, what is happening here is during the daytime, because many of these thermal power plants are also backed down, they are also participating on exchange. And there is very good quantum of URS power also coming in the market. Now, all this power is coming at a price point. None of these thermal generators are quoting less than Rupees 2.5 or Rupees 3.0, right? They're not going below that because that is their variable cost, the coal cost. Now if, let's say, 1,000, 2,000, 3,000 megawatts o f additional VPPA power will come, it will bring down the price, no doubt about it. But how much that would be, that is to be seen. So , it's not that it will crash it left, right, center and price would come down to 0 or less than one rupee level. That will not happen. But yes, if there is more supply, then it will bring down the prices.

In fact, in the Day-Ahead Market, it is more of conventional power, which is coming. But if you look at our G -DAM market. In the G-DAM market, we have large buy volumes. There is an interest from the buyers, but the quantum available in the G-DAM market is comparatively much lower. So, when VPPAs come, of course, they will come in the conventional market, but if green power comes to the market, yes, that will help us.

Just one last data question. In the nine -month period, what was IEX market share in REC and the TAM segments?

So, electricity overall, we are around 83% in first nine months. And REC is about 50%. I do not have exact number for REC available right away, but electricity is 83% for sure. REC about close to 50%.

So, TAM is what, 50%?

TAM, it varies between 45%, 50%. You have that? So, TAM is generally below 50%, but overall electricity is 83%.

Got it. We can reverse calculate also. Assume 99% for RTM and DAM and rest we can.

83% number will help you arriving at the final.

We take that as the last question. And now I hand the conference over to the management for the closing comments.

Thank you, friends. I would like to thank each one of you for being part of today's call. Throughout the third quarter, we witnessed efforts from the Government and regulators to establish a favorable policy and regulatory climate to develop the energy sector. We at IEX remain committed to contribute to the development of a sustainable and energy -efficient future for India. Have a wonderful evening. Thank you once again.

Thank you very much. On behalf of Axis Capital Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.