IRB Infrastructure Developers Limited analyst Q&A

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. The first question is from the line of Alok Deora from Motilal Oswal. Please go ahead.

Sir, good morning. Just had few questions. First is on this TOT -19 and some of the other TOT packages which were up for biding, any update on that and in a couple of more projects before the year end. So, any movement there or by when do we expect to win those projects?

Yes, so we remain optimistic about the upcoming TOTs. There are three to four more TOTs to come. As regards T OT-19 is concerned, we have decided not to bid on it. So, we have not submitted our bid in that regard. There is a specific reason for it. The reason is that NH AI has stated th at they will be making MLFF i.e. Multilane Free Flow compulsory for this project. And the project size is not a very big one, it is a small size project. So, we have decided to pause for the time being and observe the response to NHAI’s move to make MLFF compulsory. Because the concern here is that MLFF has not been introduced anywhere in the country. Few pilots are in the making and without getting the pilot project tested, str aight away introducing it on a T OT project to our mind was a little risky proposition. Hence we have decided to pause and wait and see how people respond to it.

I mean we are not anti-technology; we are very much for MLFF. The problem is that we want the MLFF to get tested. What is the mechanism to recover the vehicles who are not having enough balance or who do not have a fast tag on their windshield? These are some critical issues which need to be addressed. Our IT team is in touch with IHMCL, and a live conversation is on. So, before the next bids come up, I am sure there will be couple of pilots which would have started. There would be some more clarity that would come along and that would make things easy to participate in those projects going forward. We thought that let us wait and see how people are willing to factor the risk premium into this kind of proposition. That is the reason why we have decided to pause and see how it shapes up. Otherwise, the strategic thought process of participating in the monetization remains intact.

Got it. So, as of now we have not bid for any, there are no pending TOTs which we are waiting for the tenders to open?

No, nothing at the moment. There are a few bids happening this month. We will see how they shape up. But no TOT is pending at the moment.

Sure and sir, an y moment in the BOT toll and HAM projects since we are already in mid-February now. I mean the whole industry is waiting for these last couple of months to get some orders and get some order inflows basically. So, any active tenders you have seen which we have also bid for, and could we see some traction there?

As far as EPC and HAM are concerned you know my views on them. So, I will not repeat that. But I mean, then, what do we say? Yes, bidding on HAM continues with around two dozen players submitting bids for each of them. So, you can imagine what kind of competition we will meet with.

And anything on BOT toll sir? Anything on BOT toll now, of late?

Sure. So, sir just to sum it up as of now it is very unlikely that we would kind of win any new projects in this financial year. Because TOT even if you were to submit a bid now it will not open in time.

No. So, I would submit this way that there are three more T OTs which definitely are likely to get financially bid out in this financial year. Where we are very much going to go ahead and bid.

Got it sir. Got it. That is all from my side sir. Thank you and all the best, sir.

The visibility f or March is three to four more T OTs that may come up for bidding.

Got it.

We will bid for those.

Sure sir. All the best sir.

Thank you.

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Nitesh from JP Morgan Asset Management. Please go ahead.

Hi sir. Thank you very mu ch for the presentation and quarterly update. Can you please give me some kind of visibility on the EPC revenue and profitability on a forward basis. Because over the last few quarters the revenue and the EBITDA, the EPC projects have come down quite a bit for this year. Can you give us some kind of visibility on a looking forward basis to what it might look like? Thank you.

So, I think in terms of EPC what we have alr eady guided, we have almost ₹ 35,000 crores kind of O&M order book and which will be executed over a period of 10 to 12 years. And in terms of that there will be steady state kind of revenue which will be annuity kind of model and it will be growing on year- on-year basis and that has healthy margin So, that is the clear visibility in terms of our EPC or project management services is concerned. In terms of the new bidding I think we will be very selective, and we are focusing largely on TOT which typically has some initial CAPEX and thereafter provision which provides 15-30 years of visibility. Going forward also our focus will more on the asset business than the bagging of EPC. We are not bidding for the EPCs and HAM as sir has rightly explained that there are more than two dozen companies participating in HAM and even some of the EPCs are getting bidded out, 45%, 50% below NHAI bidding. So, anyway we are not concentrating on that segment. Our first focus will be on TOT and followed by the selective business on the viable BOT projects.

I think you will appreciate this fact that when we say TOT or a monetization asset, it has a chunky O&M that comes along. And that is a good EBITDA margin business which we believe is a better way to build the order book. Because as you keep building the order book with more of O&M coming your way, your margins are much better, and the visibility of that order book is for 20- 25 years. So, you are not on a treadmill to continuously run to replenish your order book. We are structurally building the order book for a medium-to- the-long-term nature which we believe will actually help the company build a very solid pipeline.

And just to add on the basis of our existing projects we have guided that even the company will become net debt zero by 2030 and in terms of profitability there we expect around 25% CAGR profitability and cash ROE from this from this 8% will grow to 14% - 15% by 2030.

Thank you sir. The second question I have is, can you just take us through cash flows at IRB level? From distributions at Private and Public InvIT and as well as the TOT and BOT projects at IRB.

Yes. So, the present cash and bank balance you can say is in the range of ₹ 25- 30 billion The distributions we typically receive from our Public and Private InvIT investments amounted to approximately ₹60 crore during the quarter . And this is going to grow more once theprojects become operational in the coming quarters. i.e. TOT-17 and TOT -18 which will also contribute to the future distribution from Private InvIT.

Yes, so if you look at cash flows, I think if you talk about project management services which is nothing but your O&M. I think O&M is on consistent basis there will be a ₹ 7 billion to ₹ 8 billion EBITDA which will be coming from the O&M there we have not factoring in any new business. And Mumbai-Pune gradually distributing around ₹ 4 billion to ₹ 5 billion kind of distribution and going forward around ₹ 4 billion to ₹ 5 billion kind of distribution we are expecting from Private InvIT and Public InvIT will remain around close ₹ 1.5 billion kind of distribution from the Public InvIT. So, this entire cash flow will be available for IRB and going forward IRB is not required to put any additional equity into the new projects. As the management is contemplating multiple churns of the asset, out of those churns of asset the equity for the new projects will be created. As we have transferred three assets, we realized ₹ 49 billion of equity and asset size transferred over ₹ 84 billion and the assets which we have added over ₹ 140 billion and after this addition we have even transferred VM7 HAM asset there we will have around ₹ 5 billion cash on account of equity. I think going forward the cash generation will be consistently built on the backdrop of asset addition but there will not be any outflow in terms of equity from the Listed company.

Right sir, that is clear. That is it from me. Thank you.

Thank you.

Thank you very much. The next question is from the line of Aditya Sahu from HDFC Securities. Please go ahead.

Thank you so much for the opportunity. I just had one or tw o questions. This was on the bid pipeline. So, as you men tioned that you are looking at three more TOTs to come up for the bidding in this financial year till March. So, what would be the value of those TOTs that are coming up and any more TOTs in the future, if I were to understand from a value standpoint?

So, as you know usually NHAI does not disclose the IECV of the TOTs when they bid out for projects. But going by the data available in terms of the daily toll revenue and corresponding data points that we have , these projects together, the three of the projects should somewhere augment around ₹ 10,000 crores to ₹ 12,000 crores. That is the potential we believe these projects would have.

Understood sir and on the BOT, because I understand that I think last time we were sort of expecting roughly ₹ 30,000 crores in BOT. That ₹ 300 billion was what we were expecting. But I think that is not happening because of the subdued bidding over here. Is there any expectation on the BOT or the overall bid pipeline, if I were to put it that way, would stand close to ₹ 10,000 crores to ₹ 12,000 crores only?

Yes. So, just to give you a perspective, we are not looking at BOT alone. The idea is to deploy patient capital to create value over a period of time. So, we are not trying to distinguish between BOT or TOT. Whether it is bid -operate transfer or buy-operate transfer, it really does not make much difference to us. The idea is what will create more long -term value. So, if we see the visibility coming more on the monetization side, we will deploy the capital more on the TOT side. If we see there is a viable proposition on the BOT side, we will definitely go in for that as well. So, as you said, we were looking at around ₹ 10,000 crores to ₹ 12,000 crores of projects. Because the BOT did not materialize in terms of viability proposition, we saw the TOT opportunity was very good. And we in fact ended up winning ₹ 14,000 crores of projects in the last three months. But they were on the TOT side. So, we have substantially created value, but more on the TOT side, which has much lesser risk metrics to my mind.

Understood sir. If I were to put a number on the overall bid pipeline, which would comprise of the TOTs, BOTs and all the other revenues, what would that be?

If I just speak for monetization, the government official documents talk about around ₹ 3 lakh crores of total toll road monetization. Of that, certain amou nt will go towards their own NHAI InvIT. But on a very conservative manner also, if I look at around ₹ 30,000 crore s to ₹ 50,000 crores is the annual opportunity that monetization is about to bring up. And this is an annual opportunity for next four years. So, that to my mind is a significant one. And you have also seen the policy statements from the government where they are trying to pivot towards more viable BOT options. So, we are studying those as well. But there I am not able to put a number because they are now approving projects on a project -to-project basis after having due studies and cabinet approvals and things like that. But on the policy front, I think this is the kind of visibility that they have talked about. A detailed slide in our presentation will give you more flavor on what kind of opportunity exists.

Understood, sir. So, that should ideally be the bid pipeline for you, the annual working capital that you are targeting as a whole.

For the kind of appetite IRB has in terms of growth for the next foreseeable future, I think there is a significant amount of opportunity available to deploy the growth capital.

Understood, sir. Understood. And I think we had mentioned earlier the O& M margins we are writing at 20% to 23%. So, that continues to be in place for the full financial year.

I will tell you a little more granular understanding. If you look at the BOT/TOT business, that has an EBITDA margin of around 85%. And if you look at the EPC or the construction O&M business, you will see around 18% to 20% kind of margin profile for that business. That is how I sum it up.

Okay. Understood, sir. Thanks a lot for the opportunity.

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Mohit Kumar from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.

Good afternoon, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. I have one question on the industry side. What kind of changes are being discussed in the new BOT concession agreement? Are you guys suggesting or looking for any major changes?

I think this is an ongoing reform. And with every passing project, we see some more visibility coming into it. Now, from a developer perspective, from a lender perspective, from a client perspective, everyone would have different take on the reforms that a re being talked about. But having been a pioneer in the sector and being in BOT for more than 30 years, I think every change is a step in the positive direction. So, not wanting to elaborate into any specific provision, whether it is good, bad or decisive. But I think the ultimate objective is whether the project will make a reasonable return commensurate with the risk attached. I think that remains the focal point, how one decides whether he wants to commit capital for it or not.

But was there something specific which is holding up the new BOT bids?

Okay, so to give you a little more granular understanding. The low -hanging fruit as I would talk about, like a two to four l aning project or a four to six laning project. Not many remain to be bid out now because India has already grown past that phase of growth. Today, the BOTs that we come across are more exotic in nature, more complex in nature. And the tolling structure on these projects is also complex. Because as you know, if the project is structure heavy, then the toll tariff depending on the project cost o f that structure is 5x that structure cost and things like that. There are complex issues as to whether the traffic will use the structure or whether it will want to go below the structure. What happens to the toll tariff for people who are not using the structure? Whether they should be allowed to pay lesser toll? And all these things create a significant overhang on the vi ability of the project. So, that is the reason why I said that viability of the project commensurate with the risk attached is the key thing that one would look at going forward while bidding for BOT. It is no longer a straightforward ground field opportunity where you can access the risks and bid more comfortably. These are complex projects and unless you have a very good handle on the risks attached, it is advisable to be prudent and study the risks properly before committing capital.

Understood. Thank you sir, that is very helpful. My second question is that you spoke about the multi-lane flow, I think, MLFF. Is it being implemented also for new BOTs or is it only for the TOTs?

See, the endeavour of the government is to bring it to play MLFF across. It is an ongoing transition. Like what we saw in Fastag, people had a taboo about Fastag also. Fastag today is the way forward. Very proudly we keep saying that 97%- 98% of our revenue comes from Fastag. So, I am not having any reservations about MLFF. It is technology which exists in other parts of the world. It has its challenges. We need to address those. We need a credible, probably a settler who can take the intermediate risk. And if we structure it right, it is a technology which can be brought in a very aggressive manner in India as well.

I think on TOT-19 it is also explained that MLFF was not the only reason why we have not bided. One was the size was low and secondly, the asset was operational under BOT and BOT concession was over and post that from last three to four years NHAI is already collecting tolls. It is a gated asset, and we believe there was some maintenance issue as well. I think considering other issues we have decided not to bid for TOT-19 and not only MLFF.

Understood. Thank you.

Thank you very much. As there are no further questions from the participants, I now hand the conference over to the management for the closing comments.

So, thank you everyone for taking your time out for this quarterly call and look forward to connect with you again for the next one. Have a great day and great week ahead. Thank you.

Thank you sir. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for your participation and for using Research bytes Conferencing Services. You may please disconnect your lines now. Thank you and have a great day ahead. *****