JSW Cement Limited

FY2026 Q2

2025-11-10 Transcript PDF
Moderator

Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin with the question-and-answer session. Our first question comes from the line of Rajesh Ravi from HDFC Securities.

HDFC Securities

My first question pertains to your margin guidance which you have guided at 1150 to 1200 for FY26. You lowered your volume guidance. Is there any outlook on the margins and also related to that cost savings of Rs. 200 per ton? What is the trajectory over there?

Narinder Singh

Firstly, on your question on the guidance of Rs. 1100 per ton operating EBITDA , that was including North operations. Once our North operations comes in, which is expected in Q4 FY26, this number we would be definitel y achieving. And coming to the second part of the question, we are on track with the target mentioned last time of the Rs. 400 per ton that we had mentioned basis the initiatives that we have planned. 50% has already been delivered. We will start to see the benefit of renewable energy, the capacities for which are coming online in Q4 FY26, and the benefits would start flowing. Once the Q3 FY26 results are out, we will be updating you further on this. But yes, the benefits of these initiatives continue to flow.

Narinder Singh

Majorly cement, partially to GGBS. Because most of it is more linked to the renewable power, fuel, AFR. So, majorly goes to cement, very marginally to GGBS.

HDFC Securities

On what base this 200 is expected? When you said 200 is already achieved, this is already reflected in FY25 performance?

Narinder Singh

Yes, 2025 and Q1.

HDFC Securities

On what base another 200 should factor in and by when?

Narinder Singh

Another Rs. 200 per ton , most of it starts flowing from Q4 FY26. This continues in FY27. Renewable power is one. Our renewable capacities which are today about 48 megawatts, it jumps to about 68 megawatts in Q3, and another 59 megawatts to be added in Q4. So, most of it comes from renewable power. We are trying to rationalize on the logistics which we continue to do. Last quarter, we saw some reduction in lead distance and this we will be further reducing. AFR percentage is expected to be further increased so that brings saving on the fuel. And of course, the efforts on premiumization that continues. Hence, I said, the benefits will flow in FY27 also because this is the exercise that we have started. And the fina l thing is operating leverage. As the volume goes up, the benefits flow.

HDFC Securities

Green power from 22% odd, how much will that go up to by, say, exit of FY27?

Nilesh Narwekar

Exit of FY26, in terms of installed capacity, which we will start to extract, we should be starting to hit a 63% of our requirement to be furnished through green power. So, FY27, starting Q1, we should broadly be hitting that same ballpark, which is 63% of our total requirement is green power.

HDFC Securities

From 21%, it will go to 63% for next financial year. Is this understanding, correct?

Nilesh Narwekar

Absolutely right.

HDFC Securities

That will be one of your major cost drivers. Good saving would be flowing. Great. And when you say AFR, that is thermal basis calorific value or volume basis, 12% to 16% calorific value.

Nilesh Narwekar

Calorific.

HDFC Securities

And this number, you are already achieving a very good number of 12% to 15%. So, how much is this expected to go up to?

Nilesh Narwekar

Close to 18% to 19%.

Nilesh Narwekar

That is right. This is used for making of clinker. So, yes.

Moderator

Our next question comes from the line of Raashi from Citigroup.

Raashi

I have two questions. The first is on the volume side, could you just elaborate a little bit more on the market share gain in the regions specifically last time you said it was the South is that continuing?

Nilesh Narwekar

We broadly remained in line. Now, what we have done is because our geographic footprint is, of course, specific. So, the geographic footprint is around South, West and East. Within South also its restricted to specific districts within the states. So, the way our volumes get distributed around 21% is South. There is a 20% growth in the South. There is a (-3.1%) degrowth which has happened in the East, and I think around a 1% in the West. So, overall 8.1% to 8.2% is the growth in cement. This is for H1.

Raashi

Sorry, West you said was a (-1%)?

Nilesh Narwekar

West is positive at 1% and please understand when you look at West for us, we are restricted to Mumbai metropolitan primarily as against the West for the industry which includes other parts of Maharashtra and Gujarat, etc. So, we get more severely impacted because of the onset of the monsoon. So, just put it in that context. It is 1% for West, (-3%) for East and 21% for South.

Raashi

The other question is you already elaborated on the cost saving. So, would it be possible to kind of break up the EBITDA between cement as well as GGBS and if there has been any improvement after FY25 on cement EBITDA outside of the realization?

Narinder Singh

We would not be able to give a breakup of cement and GGBS. But as we said, most of the benefit is flowing to cement. The improvement in EBITDA that we see is coming from cement. GGBS is almost in line with what we were doing last year because we have not taken any price increases. We continue to maintain the price because our focus is more on gaining volume and improving the volumes. Costs continue to be same almost for GGBS.

Moderator

Our next question comes from the line of Sucrit D Patil from Eyesight Fintrade Pvt Ltd.

Eyesight Fintrade Pvt Ltd

I have a forward-looking question on this company's outlook and how it will be going ahead. As more players expand in the blended cement and green construction space, what is JSW Cement doing to build a strong edge, not just through capac ity or pricing, but something in a more extended way like a way of working or thinking that grows over time and makes it hard for your competitors to copy? That's my first question. I will ask my second question later.

Nilesh Narwekar

It's a good one. As you know, currently our CO2 emission intensity is the lowest in the industry and there are all steps that we are taking to ensure that we continue to maintain this gap and ensure that this becomes our calling card in the cement sector. So, 2-3 obvious things which are there. One, of course, is the push and the thrust as we move towards green power and more of AF. That's one that we are anyway doing. Second, extending the same concept and idea in the supply chain as well. So, an extended and a c oncerted effort towards all our outbound and inbound raw material movement, including the mining trucks, all of them moving towards EV or at least in the geographies where we don't have adequate, at least trying to move towards a more greener fuel, which i s CNG. So, that thrust is anyways underway. All the steps that we undertake is primarily with this particular lens in mind and all decisions are primarily driven based on this. Now, as we expand into geographies where we don't have the benefit of slag, but there is a concerted effort to try and look at other methods and means of trying to see how we can reduce our carbon footprint. So, like in the North, yes, everyone is experimenting with calcined clay. We are also doing so and soon we believe that that's something that we will also be having. So, that's directionally how we are headed.

Eyesight Fintrade Pvt Ltd

My final question is about margins and cost planning. Again, a forward looking one. As realizations remain soft and cost s keep on fluctuating, how are you pl anning to protect the margins and are there any smart internal methods that you will be putting into place that will help you keep the delivery high without hurting the profit?

Narinder Singh

For us, we are working on two fronts. One is the initiatives which we had highlighted in the last call after the Q1 results. We have been taking initiatives which are going to bring us substantial savings. We have achieved Rs. 200 odd and we continue to focus on achieving another 200 which will flow over the balance q uarters, the two quarters and in FY27. So, that's on the cost front in the existing operation. Our North operations become operational this Q4 and as we all know, North is a more attractive market which will give us a spike in the overall EBITDA. And GGBS continues to be our mainstay.

Moderator

Our next question comes from the line of Amit Murarka from Axis Capital.

Axis Capital

On GGBS, you said that you are looking to hold pricing stable in order to get some more volumes in the product. But we know that cement price in South particularly have declined quite substantially. So, does it require you to drop GGBS pricing now in order to attain that objective of volume? Or do you think that even though the gap has reduced substantially within GGBS and OPC, you would still be able to deliver the desired volume growth on GGBS?

Narinder Singh

If you see last year, FY25, the prices were t he lowest in a long time. Despite that, we did not reduce the GGBS prices. But we have not taken the increases also in H1 when the cement prices again started moving North. So, we continue to hold on to the GGBS current price that's our strategy and we will continue to do that.

Nilesh Narwekar

The economic argument that you are referring to here, which is the GGBS mix versus the non - GGBS mix, that still remains profitable across many of our geographies. That's how we are seeing it play out. So, we do not expect any of the margins to bring down the GGBS prices. And of course, going forward, I guess you have heard the commentary from everybody else as well, we expect the overall cement prices also to start to move up with the season opening up and that's going to augur well even for the additional GGBS sales that we intend to undertake.

Axis Capital

Also, if you could talk a bit about the North utilization outlook as in your plan, let's say year one, year two, which is FY27 and FY28, what could be the expected utilization from that asset?

Nilesh Narwekar

Year one it's between 55% to 60%. And then towards year two is when we start hitting the full capacity ramp up around 80% or thereabouts. That's how we are targeting it. And our entire approach towards the North market is geared up for that. And for now, we have got a number of things that is already underway to ensure that we are able to achieve these numbers. I mean, all the pre-launch activities around market survey, discussions with channel partners, we are getting quite a good amount of response from the channel partners on wanting to engage with JSW more meaningfully. We had mentioned about enrolling the JSW Steel dealers as a part of it; that's also found a fair amount of traction. The non-trade customers that are active in that geography - We have connected with many of them and all of them are very keen and engaged with us on that. Plant teams are more or less in place. The plant is also getting ready, and we can give you further updates in the next call on this.

Axis Capital

Just to clarify, the 55%-60% is on 2.5 million tons or 3.5 million tons?

Nilesh Narwekar

2.5 million tons.

Moderator

Our next question comes from the line of Prashant, an Individual Investor.

Prashant

I have only one question. What is the volume of clinker sales for this quarter, previous quarter and the same quarter last year?

Narinder Singh

This quarter, the number is around 90,000 tons. The previous quarter was 1,60,000 tons and last year again was around 30,000 tons.

Prashant

Obviously, a cement sale would be more beneficial and profitable than a clinker sale. What are the measures company is planning to minimize or do away with clinker sales going forward?

Narinder Singh

These sales were made from our subsidiary, JSW Cement Subsidiary, Shiva Cement which did not have a grinding unit previously. Now the grinding unit is in operation since September. So, the sale is going to reduce substantially. Only any surplus clinker if we have in Shiva, we will be making the sale.

Prashant

This clinker sales was restricted to the subsidiary only and from the rest of the plants, there was no clinker sales. Is my understanding correct?

Narinder Singh

Yes, you are right.

Moderator

Our next question comes from the line of Harshil Patel from Harshil Patel & Co.

Harshil Patel & Co

My question is that how much capex is required to be spent in terms of cash flow in second half of this year and next year?

Narinder Singh

This year we are planning for the year, the intent is to spend about Rs. 2300 crores as I mentioned earlier, of which close to Rs. 1000 crores has already been spent. Rs. 1300 crores is the cash outgo that we are expecting in this second half. In the next y ear, for the full year, our plan is to spend about close to Rs. 2000 crores.

Harshil Patel & Co

Will this be funded 100% through debt?

Narinder Singh

No, not 100%. From our IPO proceeds, we continue to have about Rs. 800 crores with us, and we see internal accruals also happening. So, we can safely assume that Rs. 1300 crores and Rs. 2000 crores, about Rs. 3300 crores is the cash outgo that we are looking for. And we have Rs. 800 crores of the IPO proceeds that leaves us with Rs. 2500 crores. We can safely again assume that we will have a free cash of approximately Rs. 250 crores this year and about Rs. 400-450 next year. So about Rs. 700 crore is the internal accruals. So, we are left with Rs. 1900 crores. Rs. 1000 crores odd is the repayments that would happen and that will be re-borrowing. So that's the number broadly.

Harshil Patel & Co

How much is targeted debt that we are anticipating by end of next year?

Narinder Singh

Our intent is to keep the net debt below Rs. 5000 crores at all times.

Harshil Patel & Co

How is the outlook likely to happen for second half of this year? Specifically, when a lot of capacity addition is happening by various competitors. So, is the pricing and the volume growth likely to shape out in second half of this year?

Nilesh Narwekar

The outlook that we carry for H2 is very positive. Now H1, as all of us are aware, our geographies were impacted by extended monsoons and there was also a bit of uncertainty when the GST rate was changing. This is behind us, thee macros stack up well and all the other indicators seem to be good, such as good monsoons. So going forward, H2 seems to be very positive. Now, October was a bit of an anomaly. In terms of prices, we saw a marginal dip in South and East in terms of prices in the month of October. But we believe this is temporary and things will start to shape up as we are seeing now from November onwards till the end of this year, which will be a very strong and a powerful one. And West was broadly stable. And I am sure the channel checks that all of you have done will probably be giving you a similar indication as well.

Harshil Patel & Co

Do you think that with this, the current situation of the volumes that we are having and the previous guidance of having 15.5 million of volume for this year, do you think that we will be able to achieve this 15.5 million ton considering the present situat ion in terms of what the previous guidance we have given?

Narinder Singh

H1 numbers, we know we missed a small volume due to the market challenges, particularly monsoon and the GST. As far as H2 is concerned, we are very hopeful of achieving our plan and our growth in the current year for the full year will be about mid -teens. It will be in the mid - teens over the last year. So ye s, you can say we are hopeful of achieving our targets. We may slip a bit, but yes, we will be there.

Harshil Patel & Co

With this volume that we have forecasted, do you think that we will be able to achieve revenue in terms of 6000 to 6800 crores, probably somewhere in between for the full year?

Narinder Singh

Revenue guidance will be a challenge that's more dependent on the pricing. I think we better not speak on that. It's a game of pricing as you understand.

Moderator

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, as there are no further questions from the participants, I now hand the conference over to the management for the closing comments. Thank you and over to you, sir.

Nilesh Narwekar

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for taking out time and joining our call. As you have seen, we have had a strong H1. We intend to continue with this performance in H2 as well. Just one message, we told you in Quarter 1 that we have been among the fastest growing cement companies. We intend to continue with that growth going ahead and look forward to catching up with you from now on in respect of different events and of course, in the Q3 call as well. Thank you very much and have a great day, guys. There's another gentleman who's come, Mr. Rajesh Ravi. So, can we do that Moderator?

Moderator

Sure, sir. Rajesh Ravi from HDFC Security. You can proceed with the question.

HDFC Securities

Wanted to understand how much has been spent on the Nagaur expansion so far in H2? And also, if you could just break up total project cost. So, this Sambalpur is already 350 crore odd, our total project cost. So, if you could give the broad project cost numbers for Rajasthan and Vijayanagar and Dolvi plants which are upcoming?

Narinder Singh

When it is about Nagaur, more than Rs. 1,950 crore odd has already been spent till 30th of September. The project cost totally is, and this is including GST, is about Rs. 3,350 crores odd including the railway siding.

Narinder Singh

Rs. 3,350 crores odd, of which, approxmiately Rs. 1,950 plus already been spent as on 30th of September. Now, Rs. 3,350 crores is inclusive of GST. And this is for 3.3 million clinker and 2.5 million of grinding. We have one more grinding coming up in Nagaur which gets commissioned sometime in FY27. That is about Rs. 250 crores of capex of which more than half has already been spent.

HDFC Securities

And the other mills, Hatta, Dolvi.

Narinder Singh

Hatta is much later. Dolvi, 4 million additional is about Rs. 1,600 crores. Vijayanagar, about Rs. 800 crores.

HDFC Securities

This Vijayanagar and Dolvi would mostly be coming in FY28?

Narinder Singh

Yes.

HDFC Securities

These being grinding units, most of the CAPEX would be back-ended only. Is this understanding correct?

Narinder Singh

Yes.

Moderator

That was the last participant.

Narinder Singh

Thank you.

Nilesh Narwekar

Thank you.

Moderator

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, on behalf of JM Financial, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us and you may now disconnect your lines.