JSW Infrastructure Limited analyst Q&A

Sir, shall we open the floor for questions?

Sure. Yes, please.

Good to see that the commissioning time line s for your major port projects are largely unchanged. Could you help us with the capex in the 9-month period split into ports and logistics? And what is your guidance for FY '26? You had mentioned about INR55 billion on the previous call. Also, I see that you are giving guidance for '26 to '28 for the Port and Logistics business on revenue, EBITDA. It will be great if you can help us spell out your capex targets for FY '27 and '28 across ports and logistics. That will be my first question.

Yes. So for FY '26, we expect a spend of INR3,500 crores, primarily INR2,000 crores on the port side and INR1,500 crores on the logistics space. In logistics, we expect the closure of the transaction, which we announced in December in this quarter. So that itself will be a INR1,200 crores outflow. So INR3,500 crores spend for FY '26. And FY '27 to '28, both the years put together, we are saying that port spend will be around INR13,000 crores and logistics spend will be INR3,500 crores.

Okay. Your FY '26 target for capex seems to have come off by about INR20 billion versus earlier guidance. It was INR40 billion for ports and INR15 billion for logistics. Is there any specific reason for the port capex to have reduced?

So orders, the purchase orders have been raised, as I've alread y highlighted. It is just that the payout has been deferred because we have gone for some bank guarantees and LCs and all. So payouts we have deferred to the next 2 years. But the purchase orders are -- raising of purchase orders are on track.

And just to add on the Logistics segment, we have actually been better than the guidance because there is an acquisition into it.

Yes. Second question is you had reduced your volume growth guidance to 8% to 10%. The impact on Paradip coal and iron ore is well noted. But now is the revised target lower? Because the fourth quarter ask seems to be quite high with even 8% growth.

So we'll be looking at a reasonable target of around 123 million tonnes for this year. And for the coming year, it could be in the range of 6% to 7%, and then on, we will have a massive ramp - up to 165 million to 175 million tonnes.

FY '28?

That's FY '28, correct.

Okay. Also, one last question. I know I've already asked 2. On the logistics side, of your revenue target for FY '27 of INR18.2 billion, now with the acquisition from the group that you have done of INR12.2 billion enterprise value and your growth from the MMLPs that you are developing in Navkar? What kind of number is already sort of visible from what you have in your business so far? And so what is see of the 3x jump that we are looking at from FY '26 to '27 where is it that additional visibility would be required or would come through beyond what you have told us?

So as you've seen, we did a remarkable turnaround in Navkar. So what was -- earlier when we took over the company, it was doing around INR3 crores per month EBITD A. We have now gone up to around INR13 crores, and that journey is still ongoing. So for FY '27, we are looking at broadly in the range of INR450 crores to INR500 crores EBITDA for the entire logistics business and INR750 crores to INR800 crores for the en tire logistics business in FY '28.

Yes. So what I was asking is that how much of this EBITDA projection is from what you already have in terms of the rail business is acquired from the group, Navkar? Or is some other acquisition or nonlinear growth required to reach this target?

Yes. So INR160 crores is what we are expecting for FY '27 from Navkar, taking a run rate of INR40 crores per quarter. And already, we have guided the market that INR150 crores, we will be getting on the 2 5 rakes, which we will be buying from JSW Shipping. So that takes it to INR310 crores. And we are placing orders for additional rakes because that also is something which we have guided the market that overall, we'll be having 67 LSFTO/GPWIS rakes. So as a part of that story, incremental orders will be placed for LSFTO rakes and container rakes. So all which will commence from February onwards, placement of orders. So all these rigs, obviously, the delivery will start by, say, August/September. So all in put together, we can expect this EBITDA is what we have guided.

Next question is from the line of Priyankar Biswas from JM Financial.

Of course, I would say, quite a good turnaround in Navkar in particular. My question actually builds on, let's say, Sumit's question earlier. Since you have given us more or less a road map like INR700 crores of EBITDA in logistics, can you further elaborate like how does this INR700 crores goes to, let's say, the eventual target of INR2,000 crores by FY '30? Like what sort of conclusions will come from the GCTs, the containers? If you can share some more details, like GCT economics, how does it work? If you can slightly elaborate?

So broadly, if you look at the entire logistics busines s, there are 3 main components. One are terminals and number two is the rakes and number three are the physical containers. So these are the 3 main components which drive the logistics business. So in each of the 3 components, we have fixed a target ratio so that we end up broadly having around 25 terminals across India in the next 3 years. Similarly, the rake fleet, we are looking at upping it over 200 plus including LSFTO and container rakes. And the container -- physical containers that we're looking at upping it to close to 8,000 to 10,000 acquisition over the next 3 years to get into that EBITDA number. So as and when we have been applying and getting all these terminals through bids and acquiring something. So these numbers are holding true, and we are finding that we'll be able, comfortably, be able to achieve these targets.

So sir, if I may just ask with 25 terminals, let's say, when you put it in place by FY '29, what sort of EBITDA we should be able to make in the terminal space itself?

So Priyankar, so roughly, just to give a breakup. So 50 container rakes, we are targeting a INR200 crores EBITDA from FY '28 perspective, I'm saying, 50 container rakes and 50 LSFTO rakes, we are looking at around INR275 crores of EBITDA . Just a breakup by means that INR200 crores plus INR275 crores stands at INR475 crores. Navkar already will close around INR180 crores in FY '28, plus the terminals like Kudathini and a few more which we have, that will all take us to INR700 crores. And these are all terminals which are growing up and we'll be having around 6 to 7 of them, which will all be in the expansion phase. Gradual ramp-up phase is what I can say.

Okay.

So the drivers which for the first 2 years will be coming from these container rakes and the LSFTO rakes because the lead time is just a few months. Whereas the ICDs and the CFS, the drivers -- EBITDA driver will be coming more in FY '29 and '30 because by that time, the construction would have happened and the contributions and EBITDA ramp-up will begin.

Okay. Okay. That's very clear. So broadly, it would mean like in a steady state, maybe almost close to, let's say, INR1,000-odd crores can come from the terminals itself, like bro ad understanding right that...

Absolutely. And stopping at this 50 rakes on container and 50 rakes on LSFTO, obviously, it's a matter of as and when the routes are mapped in, we can always go and buy out more container rakes and more LSFTO rakes.

Okay, sir. And if I may just squeeze one more in. So in -- for the port segment, you are roughly highlighting INR2,485 crores in FY '26. And then this ports EBITDA is crossing INR4,000 crores levels in FY '28. So if you can elaborate which are the key ports in your opinion and -- or, let's say, contributions from slurry pipeline, if that is included. So how do we reach this INR4,300-odd crores levels? So if you can just elaborate a bit. That's my last question.

Yes. So slu rry, you know that we have a take -or-pay contract, which can throw out INR800 crores if constructed on time. Jatadhar can give another INR300 crores to INR400 crores. And the rest of the 2 brownfield expansions, which are happening at Dharamtar and Jaigarh can give out the balance numbers with a 50% capacity utilization because we expect the steel business to commence in the second half. So that is the way we have calibrated our numbers for these 2 ports, i.e., Jaigarh and Dharamtar.

Okay. That's very clear, sir.

I'll go ahead with my questions. The first one being on the port EBITDA margin. It seems as if there's been a Y-o-Y decline that has happened. So just wanted to get a sense as to what is driving it? Is it something linked to pricing trends that you are discovering or other factors behind the on?

So the growth, if you see has mostly come from low EBITDA terminals at JNPT or at Tuticorin and that is the main reason why you getting the EBITDA margin is lower. It's not a major lower, but marginally it has reduced.

Also, in Q3 of this financial year, in one of our NDCs in Jaigarh, we have taken a repair of INR8 crores. So that was a one-off item incurred in this quarter. Also in Paradip coal terminal, we have taken some maintenance -- preventative maintenance to the tune of INR8 crores. So these are 2 expenses to the tune of around INR17 crores, which have been incurred in these ports, which have been booked in Q3. So this is like a onetime spend, I would say, which should not be kind of taken that it will be recurring in nature. So to that extent, there is a distortion in the percentage.

Could you also clarify what is the delta from an ESOP charge perspective on a Y-o-Y basis in third quarter?

So last year, it was INR15.37. Current year, it is 5.38. I'm talking about Q3.

Understood. So net effect of about INR7 crores. Understood. Just a last point of clarity, maybe then we'll come back in the queue. Just focusing on the stand -alone financials, which is my sense, represents small your Goa operations, correct me if I'm wrong over there, but it seems as if the incremental gross margins were quite limited over there. Just trying to get a sense whether there is anything to read over there or not. It's a small thing, just trying to clarify stand -alone operations and incremental margins on a Y-o-Y basis.

We couldn't get you. Could you please repeat what you said?

The stand-alone margins, incremental sales and, let's say, incremental EBITDA coming on a Y- o-Y basis is pretty low for the third quarter as well as for the 9-month period. Just trying to get a sense of what's driving the same?

So it is more to do with the mix, which is again from the subsidiaries only. Otherwise, there is nothing much to infer in that.

Got it.

Next question is from Achal Lohade from Nuvama.

Just one quick clarification. You said EBITDA to grow 15% Y-o-Y in FY '27 and double in FY '28. Do you mean doubling from FY '26 or doubling from FY '27?

Understood. Sir, the second question I have with respect to the target capacities. Does it require now more acquisitions to achieve the same or we are broadly through? Now the focus is entirely only on executing the existing project?

So we are broadly through, we are now totally focused on completion of these projects. And like as I told you, the slurry pipeline, Jatadhar, the terminals, one of the terminals, which we have taken on PPP, it has already -- it's on the verge of commissioning. So we are broadly on track into completing and executing these projects on time.

Whilst the focus is on completing the projects, we will also be participating in the PPP process and any good opportunity comes up, we will definitely be bidding for those opportunities.

So if you would have seen our presentation, 400 -plus is what they will be adding on this PPP projects will be adding on beyond the 400 million tonne capacity that we are targeting.

Right. I was to ask the second question that only, sir. So what is the -- how is the momentum? Has it like considerably slowed down compared to what we were hoping for, say, about 3 quarters back?

No. We -- if you look at it, we won the bids for berth 7 and 8 in Syama Prasad Mookerjee Port. And now we are looking at -- we have again applied for another bid in the same place. So we are on track, and we're evaluating each opportunity as and when it comes.

Understood. And just one more question with respect to the t ariff, there were earlier some thoughts about we would be able to reprice or have the freedom to charge the tariff at the major port terminals, what we operate. So any clarity on that?

So as we had clarified earlier also, so these are in the new MCA. So the 2 terminals that we are talking of JNPA and Tuticorin as well as the one which we won in Kolkata, all the 3 terminals have this clarity on free pricing.

Right. What about existing? Is there any case of that getting implemented?

So that is an issue that will be taken a call will be taken by the ministry. So we can't really base our entire business on when is that going to happen. So the new ones are -- for this.

But is the discussion on? I wanted to check if there is any update, like any in he advanced stage or anything?

Yes. So that discussion is on. But we can't really tell you a date or something like that.

Yes, yes. No, that is fine, sir. All right, sir. That's all from my end.

Sir, just a question on the expansion capacities of slurry pipeline and Jatadhar port. I just wanted to understand how much of the cargo in these ports on these infrastructure assets is towards our group cargo from the JSW Steel in the slurry pipeline and the Jatadhar port?

So the slurry pipeline and Jatadhar as of now, in the initial period, it will be entirely group. So we should have clarity on that. The slurry pipeline is built primarily serving a captive mine to a captive port. So these quantities will be on the group cargo. So we expect -- let me also further clarify to you, we expect that in -- by '27-'28, we should be landing up into 53% to 55% group versus 47%to 45% third-party because of these 2 developments.

Understood. And so sir, is this dependent on existing facilities of JSW Steel or is it on an expansion project in Odisha, with which these assets will be utilized?

So these are with the existing mines, iron ore mines at Nuagaon with JSW Group. So that is connected -- the iron ore movement is connected to that particular set of mines. And the movement further will be depending on Dolvi or Vijayanagar as depending on the demand.

Understood. And just -- so will this cannibalize the cargo from Paradip Iron Ore Terminal that you already have?

No, this is a separate stream of cargo.

Understood. Just wanted to...

Because in the current period, most of the cargo that we got at Paradip were mostly third-party cargo. It was less of group cargo. So there's absolutely nothing that we're looking at cannibalizing from Paradip.

Understood. Understood. Just one last question, if, sir, you could help me understand the railway rakes segment, which we are entering in about the acquisition, the rationale and the opportunity size in this? If you could just explain a bit about the business model and how attractive this is?

So basically, there are 2 major components on the rakes that we have acquired. One is called to something called the GPWIS scheme. So these are called general purpose wagon investment schemes. So these are currently operating in the Eastern area that is they serve BPSL and Paradip port to Bengal, they carry clinker. So it's a broad triangulated kind of movement that is done. The balance is of LSFTO wagons. So LSFTO wagons have 2 components. Here, again, we have one group of wagons, which deliver iron ore to Vijayanagar and we have another set of wagons, which carry finished steel. So if you look at it, the rationale was that Vijayanagar currently in India has now ramped up production to 18 million tonnes per annum. So this has now become a single point where you are looking at an output of 1.5 million tonnes of steel coming out from that plant. And in that, the majority is being carried by Indian Railways rakes or by road. The margin, the movement through these specialized wagons are very less. So that is where we want to enter, and we want to further ramp it up as we had told earlier. So these numbers, we are looking at ramping it up from 25 gradually to 50 and then further onwards moving it up. Similarly, Dolvi on the West Coast is also ramping up its production from 10 to 15. So every month, you're looking at output of 1 million tonnes plus coming out from these 2 locations. And that is where we had thought that we'll enter into this area.

Next question is from the line of Aritra Banerjee from Nomura.

Congratulations on a good quarter with a strong set of numbers. My first question is regarding the slurry pipeline. So if you could please provide a bit of color regarding the kind of margin profile or the return profile that one might expect from this asset?

So margins will be around two-third.

Two-third, okay. Okay. And sir, another question is basis the guidance that you have given for FY '26, sir, basis that for 4Q, there seems to be a bit of a higher growth rate of around 20%, 21%, if my calculation is correct. So could you please shed some light on what will be driving this high sort of growth rate in the fourth quarter for us to meet the guidance for FY '26?

Yes. So every year, we have been booking in the fourth quarter an income of around INR70 crores to INR75 crores, which accretes from one of our contracts with the LNG terminal, which we have at Jaigarh. So this year also, it won't be much different because we have a take-or-pay contract with one of our customer at Jaigarh. That will be a lump sum income, which will be booked in Q4 to the tune of around INR70 crores to INR75 crores. So that is what is skewing your Q4 a bit favourably.

Understood, sir. And if I can squeeze in one last question. Sir, regarding the logistics business, sir, 2030 road map states a target of around INR8,000 crores of revenue. And basis the guidance that we have given till FY '28, so that still translates into sort of a very steep required run rate for the remaining 2 years, that is FY '29 and FY '30. So will we be including any sort of inorganic acquisitions to reach our longer road map target? Or would it be coming through all the assets that we already have acquired or we have under us?

There will be further acquisitions or construction of CFS/ICDs, which will be ongoing. And as I said, what we have already announced, that ramp-up itself will be happening from '28 onwards gradually, point number one. Plus acquisition of further container rakes and LSFTO rakes will continue.

Got it, sir. Got it. Those were my 3 questions. All the best for the remaining quarters.

Thank you.

Next question is from the line of Mohit Kumar from ICICI Securities.

So around 10 million is what we have baked for FY '28. Plus our understanding is that even if the steel business has to start, the working capital accretion should commence a quarter before. So that is the way we have done our workings. And...

Yes, Mohit, just to add, see, the peak cargo that can come is close to 27 million to 28 million tonnes. But in this guidance, on a very conservative side, we have assumed only 10 million tonnes in first year, which is financial year '28. So just to make a case if there is a delay of 1 or 2 months, even up to 6 months, this 10 million tonne is very, very safe and conservative. That is how we are looking at it. But if you ask me, what is the peak potential, this would be 27 million, 28 million tonnes.

Okay. So baking at one-third?

Yes.

Understood. My second question is you're acquiring JSW rail business, right? What was the -- what is gross block of the asset you are acquiring? And are there any other JSW Group which has similar rail business outside of this particular transaction?

So gross block is around INR830 crores, and as we speak, we have already gotten around 22 rakes and 2 rakes are expected to come this month and 1 rake is expected in February. So put together, it will be around INR830 crores inclusive of GST.

My question is, are there any other businesses which also have similar logistics business, which you might be interested in? And I think there shipping also has some ships, right? Is there any plan to get into shipping and etc?

No. No, we are not getting into shipping.

Understood, sir.

Ladies and gentleman, next question is from the line of Alok Deora from Motilal Oswal.

Just one question I had, most of the questions were answered. Thanks for giving this year -by- year assessment on how the ports business and logistics business will shape up. So my question is more pertaining to FY '28 where we see a really sharp jump in the ports revenue as well as in the logistics business. So just wanted to understand how that will come because we are looking at almost a 65% -plus growth in revenue across these -- across the ports side and even on the consolidated side. So how are we looking at it?

Yes. Look, I think in one of the answers, Nagarajan actually articulated, there are 4 projects which will contribute to this incremental or the large bump, which we are talking about from '27 to '28. So one of them is slurry pipeline project, which is on a take -or-pay contract. So your revenues and EBITDA are almost sure. Then you have Jatadhar port, which is, again, in our guidance, we are very conservative, building only to 10 million to 12 million tonnes of cargo and then the Jaigarh and Dharamtar expansion, 2 projects put together. So this chunk of 4 projects provides you a meaningful growth in FY '28.

Yes. And point to be noted is in all these 4 projects, there is no concept of royalty.

Yes.

So per se, in all these 4 projects, the EBITDA margin will be elevated.

Yes.

Sure. Just one last question. In logistics, even in FY '28, we are capturing around 20% or slightly lower than 20% margins, if I just take the revenue and the EBITDA guidance which we have given out. So in FY '30, we are almost looking at a 25% EBITDA margin. So what would really change there that we are looking at 600, 700 basis points improvement in the 2-year period from '28 to '30. Because by FY '28 itself, our logistics business will be quite stable so the margin should be ideally the stable state margins? Yes, that would be my question.

Yes. So FY '27 and '28, if you see the revenue as well as the EBITDA is primarily driven from acquisition of these container rakes and LSFTO rakes. And just to give a split between an elevated '27 EBITDA margin versus a bit lower '28 EBITDA margin because the focus will be more on LSFTO rakes. As you are aware, for GPWIS, there is a moratorium. And from an EBITDA percentage perspective, the first 25 rakes which we have acquired, 19 are under GPWIS and 6 will be under LSFTO. And in LSFTO, the margins are slightly lower vis-a-vis under GPWIS. GPWIS, the margins are typically higher. So in our total pack of 50 rakes, 19 rakes, which will be there in FY '27 will continue in '28 also, but the incremental 25 rakes is all for LSFTO, wherein the margins will be lower. So that is where you can see the logistics business margin is slightly dropping from '27 to '28 -- FY '27 to FY '28. And to answer your second question on the overall margins moving up from 20% to 25%, the ICDs and CFS revenues and EBITDA will accrete in FY '29, ' 30, which will all be under construction and under ramp-up phase from '27, '28 onwards.

So generally, the clearance is to get the permission for ICDs and all, they generally take 1.5 to 2 years. So that is where you'll have the terminals and their conversion into ICDs, there being a time gap in that.

Sure. Sure. Got it, sir. All the best.

So as we have been -- and I have been repeatedly stressing there are 3 main focus areas for the management team and that we have been continuously trying to do. Number one, early completion of projects, which will result in doubling of EBITDA by FY '28. The focus on ramping up of our logistics business, which are rolling assets in nature, and will result in immediate conversion to EBITDA. And the third is on efficiency gains. So these are our 3 time focus areas, and we remain committed to it. Thank you.

Thank you very much. On behalf of Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.

Thank you.