The first question comes from the line of Shivam Gupta with Trinetra Asset Managers. Please go ahead.
FY2027 Q1
Hi, sir thank you for the opportunity. I want to know like can you please give us first on the update on Saudi Arabia entity as the incorporation and VAT transition process has completed. I want the update on this Saudi Arabia entity as the incorporation and VAT transition process has completed?
As far as Saudi is concerned, we are searching for a good distributor because we feel that the past problems whichever has arisen due to selection of a wrong partner, which has led us about 1.5 years behind th an going ahead with the process. So we are very cautious in determining a good distributor. And as soon as there is a p eace in that region, we are sure we have located 3 and 4 distributors and we have to finalize one of them, but we are waiting for the peace to arrive in that region.
Means you are still doing direct bookings?
As far as the entity is concerned, we have deferred that program. And we feel that a distributor will be a much better choice than going forward. Our own office over there.
Okay. And second, with the 18% U.S. import duty now settled, are you seeing any pickup in U.S. basmati volumes or is still not focused market for KRBL?
The U.S. market is stable for us, and we have done a pretty good business over there in last 3, 4 & this quarter. But let us see the impact is if we are going to discuss within ourselves and with our distributors and different channels. That what would be the reaction of their buying pattern after the duty increase.
The next question comes from the line of Balaji Vaidyanath with NAFA Asset Managers.
Good morning. Thank you so much for the opportunity. If you could give us some color on the export market in the sense that if there were to be a scenario where the inventory depletion happens, as you had mentioned in your opening remarks, but the freight cost doesn' t come down as much as what we anticipate. Do you see a situation where there is restocking, which is being done by the importers at such a high level in terms of price hikes. Will they be able to do that? That is question number one. Question number two is we have already seen almost 1.5 months in the July, August, September quarter. While I'm not asking for specific numbers, directionally, how is the export number looking for us in the September quarter?
Yes. So regarding Middle East, wha t I would say is that see the benchmark price that was earlier set by all the governments in the Middle East region was that even after the world, the local government was not allowing us to increase prices on the shelves. But now after the local rate incr eases, the benchmark prices have increased -- so now we are able to pass on the extra freight cost and also the rice pipe increases. So if this freight rate continues like this for another couple of months, so we will be able to pass on those prices alread y. And what was the second question?
Quarter 2 outlook.
So quarter 2 outlook, again, as we said in our remarks, the route is now partially opened and shipments are going. Although we are seeing a lot of container problems like space availability and equipment availability, so the movement is still a little slow, but we see that the demand is picking up.
So sequentially, there is a chance that the numbers could be higher?
Yes, yes, we'll see better numbe rs because I think bulk business will also resume in the second quarter to some extent. So yes, export numbers will be much better.
But it could get offset due to this little bit of Saudi business that we started doing last year on our o wn. So to that extent, it might get offset because we have changed once again our strategy from going direct to trying to look for a distributor again?
So that direct distribution is still on. So we are just doing it parallelly. By the time we find another distributor, we are still going parallelly with the wholesale distribution. So that model is still continuing. So we don't see any change in that model until we find the new distributor.
My last question on domestic is if yo u could mention 2, 3 states where you have had a significant win in terms of market share and not specific numbers, but directionally significant win in market share and 2, 3 states where you would have probably seen a drop in market share overall?
Yes. frankly, as a brand, India Gate, we enjoy market leadership position, I would say, across 75% of the states that are available in India. Off the top of my mind, I wouldn't know exactly in quarter 1, which markets have increased market share and w here we have declined. But overall, our market share in traditional trade market have declined by about 2 percentage points over quarter 1 last year.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Chirag Singhal with First Water Fund.
Thanks for the opportunity and congrats on great set of numbers. First question is on the margin outlook for this year. So we have done almost 21% EBITDA margin during the quarter. So what is your outlook for the rest of the year?
Yes. Chirag, this is Ashish. In our view, the margin of quarter 1, while they are at a high level, but these are clearly not sustainable. These have arisen because of 2 main reasons. One is very high prices during the quarter. And also we had some MTM gains on our investment portfolio. The way we see the rest of the year is that I think a lot will depend on 2 factors. One is how quickly exports scale up. Like Anil -ji had mentioned, we have an order book, but we are simply not able to supply it to many parts of the world. As and when that sale materializes, that will be -- that will help in improving the margin. And the second also is the upcoming paddy season, right? So I would -- we would watch these factors very closely. In general, the margin should be slightly better than that of last year is our view right now.
Could you quantify the gains? And also on the MTM investment gains, that is part of other income, right? I'm looking at operating EBITDA.
Yes. So I think in terms of quantify, I would say about 1% to 2% better at an overall real level at an EBITDA level.
Yes, I would say between 17% to 18% is what we are looking at right now.
Okay. And second question is on India business. Ayush, if you can please answer this. So 2-part question. First is in the quarter, there was -- the volume growth was only 3%. NSR growth was 11%. So what's the volume -led growth outlook for the full year? And if you can also give some guidance on next 1, 2 years, just to understand what kind of volume growth you are targeting for the India business? And second question on the India business is on the new product launches. So when I look at India Gate on Blinkit and similar apps, the non -basmati range that we have is very limited with the kind of cash flows and the brand strength, et cetera. Why not go more aggressive and build a broader basket instead of evaluating products one by one? I mean all these products are anyways small in terms of overall contribution. But don't you think focusing on like a broader basket will give you more options to decide which one to scale and which is higher margin, which is lower margin? Like looking at margins and all the other metrics that you consider at a broader basket level than looking at individually because the switching cost is very low. So as a consumer, if I'm looking for India Gate products, there are very limited options in non-basmati. And I'll simply switch to other brand as I run out of options in this brand. So I'm just not able to understand like what's stopping you to go more aggressive to build a broader basket of products?
Thank you, Chirag. I think I touched on both these points in my comments as well, and I'm happy to discuss it in more detail right now. On the India market, our outlook remains positive with a 10% domestic volume growth year-on-year. And that's the number we kind of commit to for the upcoming 2 to 3 years as well. Yes, quarter 1, we've seen a bit of a degrowth in volume. But as I told you, that's because of bulk pack business, which couldn't conclude in quarter 1, which actually got factored in quarter 2. But over the subsequent quarters, quarter 2 and 3, we will see resumption in the bulk pack volumes. Once that happens, we'll be back on track with our commitment of 10% for the year. Consumer pack business, which is more structural in the way we operate, I think we are doing great work in terms of opening up the demand, getting our GTMs right, getting the governance models right. So I think we see a very positive trend in the consumer pack business. On the bulk part, as I explained you.
Regional rice, you rightly pointed, and I also mentioned the little on the comment, the regional rice in quick commerce is increasingly becoming a very, very positive opportunity for us. for even the products where we find that in general trade, the economics doesn't make sense. The economics on e - commerce is much more feasible for us to en ter a lot many regional rice varieties that we were not thinking about in general trade. I think over the subsequent months, within this year, you will see us entering a lot more regional rice varieties in the quick commerce space. Frankly, even quick platforms have come up to us and suggested us that we should enter a lot of these regional rice varieties because local brands kind of dominate right now in the generative space. And those brands are not attuned to operate on quick commerce. The way quick comm erce operates in terms of diligence and supply chain, pricing models, the way it requires performance marketing, etcetera, these local brands don't have teams and the ability to operate. So platforms like Blinkit, Zepto have been repeatedly calling us and requesting us to enter these platforms, and we have started working on it. So later this year, you will see us entering a lot more of these categories.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Amit Aggarwal with Leeway Investments. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon and Congratulations on good set of numbers. My question is regarding inventory volumes. As we understand that Hormuz is opening up and our exports are going to go up and you have been saying that our domestic sales will also pick up. But if you see the inventory for last 2 years for the correspond period the volume has gone down. Can you throw some color on that? And how do you expec t to increase our exports and domestic sales inventory? And we have enough cash on the books. So why not spend more money on buying inventory? That's my only question.
Yes. Amit, your voice is not very clear. So let me just confirm the question you asked. You are asking in light of increase in exports and domestic sales is the inventory adequate especially considering the last 2 -year trend. That's your question?
Yes, yes, yes. And we have enough cash on the books. So why not buy m ore inventory and increase the market share in exports as well as domestic market?
Yes. This year, we'll be buying inventory. Definitely, we'll be buying inventory. As Mr. Jain said, we have about 389,000 tons of rice and about 70,000 tons of paddy as on 30th of June 2026. But this season, naturally, we'll be buying more, no doubt about.
So we have been -- if you say two years, our inventory is less than two years back. So we have enough cash. So why didn't we buy more inventory earlier?
So Amit, again, reconfirming. I think what he's asking is that for the last 2 seasons, we've been buying lower quantities. So if we were expecting why didn't we buy more. I think that's his question.
But we were expecting a price hike, what you are asking? No one knows about the price. What you are asking?
No, but sir we have cash in the book.
Cash in the book doesn't mean you buy paddy and why. You have to see the market, you have to see every thing while buying paddy. It is not that if you have cash in the paddy, so we can buy anything whatever we like. We bought and our stock levels are very comfortable. 389,000 rice at the end of the season is quite a comfortable stock we are having.
Okay. Any plans for putting this cash into some good use?
Okay, Amit, you're not very clear, but anyway, thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Yash Dantewadia with Dante Equity. Please go ahead.
Just give us some regional rice revenue targets and overall revenue targets for this financial?
So regional rice, we've grown at 25% in Quarter 1, and that is the kind of target we had projected for the start of the financial yea r. So our objective is to maintain that throughout the subsequent quarters for the rest of the financial year.
Yes. Could you give me a number?
Yes. So Yash, we had done about INR270 crores in branded regional rice last year. I think what Ayush saying is we are looking at 25% growth on that number in the current year. And if you look at Quarter 1, we are on track.
And overall numbers also I ask revenue, what are you looking at this year?
Yes. So I think in terms of -- we can answer that in terms of volume, where Ayush had mentioned, overall, we are looking at a 10% volume growth. Price like Anil Ji also explained, a little difficult to answer that right now considering the overall West Asian situation and also the upcoming season for piping.
All right. My second question is, if you looked at the Saudi market, right, and the entire West Asia crisis, I'm assuming a lot of rice hasn't moved, right? It's not just you. In general, a lot of rice hasn't moved to these areas. So technically, when this supply gap opens up, right, don't you see the prices of basmati going on North overall in general because the supply gap obviously must be huge now, right?
There is no doubt if the peace process completes and the markets have opened up -- will open up, definitely, there will be an impact on the price. The prices are definitely going to shoot further. But in every market, because it's a staple food, too much of rice also doesn't work because freights have increased, rice price will also increase. So there is always a limitation of everything. Number two, the new crop is already on the head from first week of September, the new crop will come. And what is the size of the crop is still a question mark because the rains came quite late. I think so within week, 10 days' time by 25th of August, we will know a picture that what would be the size of the crop. And as I mentioned in my initial address that because it is wherever the basmati is grown, it is all through canal water and underground water. So therefore, the crop size -- the crop should not go weak. But natural grain definitely, they help in the production of crop and the quality of the crop. So these are the 2 things. Definitely, prices will increase, number one. Number two, it all depends upon that what is the quantum of -- what is the quality and quantum of crop.
The next question comes from the line of Soumen Choudhury with Mansarovar Financials.
My question was on the domestic market. How have realizations behaved in this quarter vis-a-vis Q4? And what was the price hike taken in Q1?
Soumen, this is Ashish. In terms of the branded business realizations vis-a-vis Q4 are higher by around 9% in Q1. And what was the second question?
The price hike taken in Q1?
It's around the same mark. It's around the same mark, about 9%, right? That's why the realizations have increased.
We are -- frankly, the prices of basmati are already on the higher extent of the bandwidth that is possible. And we are not going to be taking any more price hikes within quarter 2. As Ashish also mentioned earlier, we are going to be waiting and watching for the paddy crop season to unfold. And then we will see calibrated which segments can continue price hikes where we have to take some margin , etcetera. I think that is something that we have to see while quarter 3 unfolds.
The next question comes from the line of Raghav Bhutoria with Lindsay Securities.
So in the last 10, 12 quarters, this has been the best gross margin performance that KRBL has given. So is this just because we had some inventory at lower cost and now because of the price hikes, the margins are looking better? Or is it structurally going to improve?
So we explained earlier, I thi nk you are right, there were -- one is that in the quarter, there were price increases that happened and also there were some MTM gains. I think longer term, this level of gross margin in the business is not sustainable. Our view right now is that for the current year, we look at about 30% gross margin and at about 17% to 18% EBITDA margin.
Okay. Thank you so much
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question for today. Thank you, members of the management. On behalf of KRBL Limited, that concludes this conference call. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.