Lodha Developers Limited

FY2025 Q1

2024-07-31 Transcript PDF
Moderator

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. The first question is from the line of Kunal Tayal from Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Bank of America

Abhishek, my first question is on the diversificat ion strategy. If I could ask what have been your sort of key observations from the Bangalore pilot and do es it lead you to a conclusion that geographical diversification is absolutely worthy, and what are some of the typical risks that need to be actively managed as part of the strategy?

Abhishek Lodha

Hi, Kunal, great question. Our learnings from the Bangalore pilot is that investing in building the local operating team, having a strong leadership an d inculcating the same culture that we have centrally, are all very important parts of the long -term sustainability from an internal perspective. From a more market perspective, we believe that the consolidation in the industry and the desire for a higher quality of life are integral to the Indian consumer. Given the state of urban infrastructure where you live makes a big difference to how you live. And therefore, given Lodha’s track record in not only creating some of the world’s finest developments, but also managing them well and actively maintaining hospitality standards which are signifi cantly sought after by consumers and therefore our brand has a significant pull factor even in markets where we have earlier not operated in. Having said that, we believe that the slow and steady strategy is the right strategy for us. We do not want t o go into too many markets. We are very comfortable. As we discussed earlier that the three markets that we are operating in right now, which is Mumbai and Pune and potentially scaling up in Bangalore once we come to conclusion on the pilot by the late r this year, will be a significant support to our goal of long-term pre-sales growth of 20%. We will of course look at more pilots in the coming years, but we do not see that we need to be in many, many cities to deliver on our growth plans.

Bank of America

And then just a quick follow up on the rest of FY’ 25. How are you thinking about business development for the remainder of nine months? I know you said in your opening comments that the pipeline is generally strong. And then just on the matter of detail part of it, are you breaking out how much could land sales contribute to the annual target?

Abhishek Lodha

Hi, Kunal. Once again, great question. But in term s of business development, yes, the pipeline is quite robust. Last year, we over-delivered on our b usiness development goals and we continue to maintain our guidance for this year. The pipeline is actually quite strong. So, there is no reason why we shouldn’t be able to or even somewhat exceed our guidance. In terms of our overall sales mix, we don’t break it out by segment as where we said thos e will keep varying from quarter-to-quarter and year-to-year overall in terms of what we provide gu idance on is our overall sales, pre-sales and the embedded EBITDA of those pre-sales.

Moderator

The next question is from the line of Puneet from HSBC. Please go ahead.

Puneet

My first question is if you can talk a bit about t he business development that you did in this quarter, was it more of the nature of JV, JDS own land, how do you intend to approach this getting into the rest of Fiscal ‘25 and how are you thinking about the redevelopment opportunity in Mumbai and your role there?

Abhishek Lodha

Hi, thank you for that question. In terms of busin ess development, we continue to look at both joint development as well as outright opportunities. We are focused on making sure that we deliver on our ROE targets while ensuring that our levels remain very conservative, and within those two constraints we look at both of those strategies, and it varies from quarter-to-quarter because sometimes things will culminate in one quarter, sometimes they will go over to the next quarter. So, I don’t think the quarterly number on the breakup between the two is important. But over the medium term, we like to have our sales come at approximately 60% from th e owned lands and 40% from the joint development lands and we think that we will be able to deliver that for this year and also going forward.

Abhishek Lodha

Sorry, I couldn’t understand your question clearly . Could you please repeat that?

Puneet

Sorry. So, in your cash flow statement, there is a n Rs 18 billion investment with respect to the GDV. Does it relate to the Rs 111 billion GDV that you addadded, do you need to pay more beyond this Rs 18 billion for the GDV that you added to your books?

Abhishek Lodha

So, I was saying that out Rs 18 billion is not ent irely attributable only to the Rs 111 billion of ne w GDV added for business development. It is largely a ttributable to that, but obviously we also have payouts done to our joint development partners from projects which we have taken earlier and other related expenses. So, it’s not a one-to-one correla tion. And for the projects that we have added this quarter, we will of course have further spent also in the time to come, not that the entire spend has already been done.

Puneet

And can you also comment a bit upon what you are s eeing in terms of pricing growth in Mumbai market? I know you’ve been very calibrated about ho w you want to take that price increase. But are you seeing any signs of exhaustion or in your proje cts, at least you’ve been able to take those regulated price increase frequently?

Abhishek Lodha

I am sure you observed. Our price growth for the f irst quarter was at about 2% and we do think that the steady price growth phenomena allow you to keep compounding that price rather than do spiky price growth and then not be able to do much for so me time thereafter. We see that price growth momentum at a reasonable pace is still very much there because at these price growth levels, you get affordability growing year-on-year. So, there is no push back on that. So, at this stage we see that our ability to deliver on this price growth level sort of in the mid to high single digits continues to remain there.

Moderator

The next question is from the line of Abhinav Sinha from Jefferies India. Please go ahead.

Jefferies India

Abhishek, I just wanted to ask on Palava. I think in the townships last quarter, I think you’ve given a 30% sales growth target, but now you are talking about 20% for the current year. So, has something changed there?

Abhishek Lodha

Good question. I think in the opening of the Airol i-Katai tunnel, it looks like it will happen only i n Q3 or perhaps even at the start of Q4. We were earl ier expecting it to be in the first half of the yea r. So, to that extent, there will be a slight impact, but in line with as you would have noticed, our overall 20% CAGR is what we will need to deliver in order t o get to Rs 8,000 crores of sales by the end of the decade and that continues to persist. Sometimes you will have this sort of quarter of variance on certain external factors, but overall, there is no change in the trajectory and actually we are quite pleased with over the last six to nine months as we brought in some of our premium products that has been received quite well in those locations. And therefore, we believe that our strategy of adding premium to the mix in addition to mid income housin g will help deliver on this 20% steady compounding at Palava.

Jefferies India

The premium product that we have bought in versus the one that we are also talking about, can you sort of give some details of where they are and what’s the pricing looking like?

Abhishek Lodha

So, the premium product that we are launching in P alava now is pricing at about Rs.15,000 to Rs.16,000 per square feet of carpet area which is 50%-plus premium to the pricing for the mid income product. We have launched one product what was know n as Phase-I of Palava overlooking the golf course. The next product that we are intending to launch in that segment will be overlooking a large riverfront park, which will happen in the second-ha lf of the year. We’re looking at locations which are premium locations within Palava and Upper Thane which has great natural ecosystem in addition to the overall physical infrastructure that we have created, and we are seeing good traction. Earlier, we had launched the villas which are plotted lands which were sold by us and then we had the buyers construct the villas and that has also done very, very well. So, if we bring in a steady stream of high- quality product, differentiated product in terms of its amenities and sizing as well as location, ther e is already good demand for it, and in the second-half of the year, as the Airoli-Katai tunnel opens up, we expect that demand to fructify into stronger sales.

Jefferies India

Sir, secondly is on the retail. You detailed a pip eline this time in presentation on slide #20. So, a) can you describe where is this high street retail located and b), any timeline for this?

Abhishek Lodha

You’ve picked up an important point of our strateg y around annuity income. As you know, we are targeting an annuity income of about Rs.5 billion p er annum by Fiscal ‘26 so that we can cover all our interest costs from annuity income. The high street retail location which are shown on Slide #20 are under construction right now and will be ready in Fiscal ‘26 and partly before that and partly maybe in Fiscal ‘27, but with the sort of average of Fiscal ‘26, all of this is already under-construction across the various residential sites that we have. We take parts of those locations and convert which are sort of having good prominent road frontage and are doing high street retail development there.

Jefferies India

Maybe one question is for Mr. Bindal as well. Just wanted to ask if you know you can help us with the recent trends on footfalls and the conversions at the site?

Prashant Bindal

See, in Q1, we had almost 24,000 walk-ins happenin g. But the most interesting part was that our conversion was almost 8.2%. If we compare it with o ver the quarter-to-quarter, just to give an idea, last year the same quarter the conversion was about 7.3%. 7.3% to 8.2% may look innocuous but it’s a 12% swing and that has played a very, very important role in our overall growth of about 20%. This conversion has been a consistent growth. Imagine it moved from 7.3 in 7.2 in Q1 last year to 7.4, 7.6, 7.8 and now it has finally crossed the 8% mark. I t hink this is a very, very healthy trend. And this kind of conversion, if you believe, although the 10% is the Holy Grail, hopefully if we continue with this trend in next 18 to 24 months, we hope to be as close to 10% mark. But the first goal is if we can take it from 8% to 9%, I think that itself will be a very, very healthy trend. So, that’s a very posit ive sense. Because we keep on analyzing the consumer behavior, the shift within the premium segment, that’s what I mentioned in my call also that moving from 2BHK to 3BHK, 3BHK to 4BHK, because that is what the consumer trend is very clearly showing. So, if we’re able to understand the consumer behavior very quickly and in terms of diversification of the geographies also perhaps we go into very detail into the consumer behavior what is required in terms of say for example just to give an idea in Bombay, the size of the kitchen was very important, in Bangalore, the size of the living room becomes very important and in Pune, most of the consumers a re working couple. So, these kind of details when we get into and prepare a design accordingly, and source accordingly, that plays a very important role in the overall conversion and walk-in.

Moderator

The next question is from the line of Kunal Lakhan from CLSA. Please go ahead.

My first question was on the Palava premiumization strategy. Just trying to understand the thought process there because we do feel that the falling interest rates or declining interest rates would benefit mid income category, and also this in conjunction w ith say the Government announcement of spending about Rs.2.2 trillion towards like urban h ouseholds. I am assuming that the CLSS scheme till the time it was operational would have benefited some place like Palava. Just moving away from, say, mid income to getting a little more premium, it sounds a little counterintuitive.

Abhishek Lodha

Hi! Yes. I think if the strategy was to move away from mid income towards premium, it would definitely be I would say not only counterintuitive but also would not make as much sense. Our strategy is slightly different, and I will try to articulate it a little better. Our strategy is to add premium product in addition to our mid-income segment. It i s not replacing our mid-income segment, it is additive, it is taking advantage of the improvement in infrastructure in the country. our strategy is to add premium product to our existing mid-income stra tegy. We do believe that our entry level mid- income product is to our compact 2BHK product will benefit significantly from the reintroduction of the CLSS Scheme, as well as from the reduction in interest rates, which we think are likely over the next six to 12 months. Having said that, the premiu m strategy is really a play on the infrastructure that we have created and the quality of life that w e have created in Palava and benefits from the infrastructure of connectivity, which is coming thr ough at that location. This I can say is similar to the evolution of Gurgaon, for the NCR, which earlie r started off as a lower mid-income and then a mid-income location and over time has become a prem ium location, driven by the same factors of good connectivity, job creation as well as high quality of life. So, we see that we will be playing both in the mid-income segment as well as the premium segment. If the question specifically raised to our strategy to moderate our presence in the Crown segm ent, that really has to do with the fact that we believe that our entry level product is best served by taking advantage of the compact 2BHK and higher rather than having the very small 1BHK produ ct, and that is a conscious call in terms of the kind of mix of consumers that we expect would be best to be living in Palava.

My second question was on our cash flows this quar ter. Your cash flow from operations was slightly lower this quarter. If you can give some drivers be hind that and how should we look at this number going ahead considering our guidance of Rs. 6,500 crores for the year?

Abhishek Lodha

Yes, I think that’s a pertinent observation. The c ash flow for the quarter was lower or is lower than the average that you would see out of the Rs 65 bil lion on a quarterly basis. On account of the fact that it’s a cycle, we have ramped up construction s pend significantly and generally the first quarter of the year tends to be slightly lower on collectio ns because there’s summer vacations and people travel a bit. So, all of those factors come into account. Even generally if you take a look at historical periods, our operating cash flow tends to be significantly loaded towards the second-half of the year and we expect the same trend to continue for this year. So, the first half of the year will be lower on operating cash flow, the second-half of the year will be higher on operating cash flow, but we remain on track for the guidance of about Rs 65 billion of operating cash flow that we gave at the start of the fiscal.

One kind of an historical question, like in the pa st, I am just highlighting the illustration that you’ve given in your presentation about like the LTCG impa ct. We have seen that in the past, like if the pricing growth has been kind of tepid, the new regime would be adverse in terms of taxation for the customers. And with the with the 6-7% kind of a pricing growth that we expect annually, would this regime be beneficial overall for the Mumbai market or this would impact demand in some way?

Abhishek Lodha

We of course take into account the fact that the r emoval of the indexation benefits means that the nature of taxation has changed. We also believe tha t consumers, when they are buying homes, are looking at homes as end users who are looking to bu y for the long-term and are not really driven doing this token of tax considerations. Having said that, the fact that the tax rate is now in line wi th all other financial assets, makes real estate, I would say, as an attractive asset. The total return as you would see from our slide 4 generated from real estate is close to 9%, 10% on a post-tax basis, which is much higher than any other asset class which has fixed income or low capital risk characteristics. So, all in all, we believe that the new regime as I mentioned in my remarks, is beneficial for primary sellers on account of the fact that it is lower over the sort of rate of taxation, even though indexation benefits have gone away, plus, the fact that those who are reselling homes will reinvest a higher proportion of their accrued gains to minimize their tax liability. So, generally we see no adverse impact from these long-term capital gains and there will be some winners and some losers, but on an overall net basis, it’s a net positive in our case.

Abhishek Lodha

We know what percentage of the first-time home buy ers, but whether they are selling their existing home or whether they are keeping their existing home and buying a home with us is not a data point that we have.

Moderator

The next question is from the line of Pritesh Shet h from Motilal Oswal. Please go ahead.

Pritesh Sheth

Just a question related to our legacy strong marke ts like the South and Central and Thane. Palava, we discussed in detail. But for these two markets, the growth last year was around 10%, 12%, right? Do you think now these markets are kind of saturating in terms of contribution and for the market share gain won’t be possible in these micro markets consi dering our position there or you still think that there are, certain pockets in which we don’t have p rojects and we can grow further and gain the market share to contribute 20% growth from these markets as well?

Abhishek Lodha

Hi, Pritesh. Thank you for that insightful questio n. In terms of South-Central Mumbai, as you know it’s a very large geographical market and there are pockets where we will start actually being present and continue to remain present at our new pockets where we are gaining presence or adding projects, and there are of course some pockets where we are completing projects and therefore will have lesser presence for the short-term while we look at replen ishing the land. But overall, at the level of the market, we do believe there are opportunities to gr ow and expand and the market will provide a decent level of growth going forward. Obviously, some of the newer markets provide a much higher level of growth or the markets where we have had le sser presence or are underpenetrated, provide a much higher level of growth. But we do expect that South Central Mumbai will continue to remain a positive growth market for us on the back of the market, expanding our brand positioning in the market, plus the opportunity to add some new locati ons. In terms of the Thane market, once again, it’s a market which is wide, it’s broad, it’s a mar ket where there is a high degree of competitive intensity. We have largely been present historicall y in the northern part of the Thane market, which is the north of the Ghodbunder and have had very li ttle presence in the southern part of the Thane market and we do see some opportunity as we add pro jects in the southern market, we add a certain part of the Thane market, we added two projects las t year to gain some growth there. So, Thane as the market once again we see that we are not fully penetrated and there will be some growth coming from that.

Pritesh Sheth

In terms of Pune, we had a strong quarter. Would y ou consider it as just one-off because we had a great launch there or we can actually look at this Rs 4,000 crores kind of a run rate on annualized basis this year itself?

Abhishek Lodha

As we have said in many different contexts, we don ’t read so much into one quarter. Ours is a diversified granular business. We can’t take the nu mber for one quarter and extrapolate it into four for the full year. Having said that, we expect meaningful growth in Pune this year. We did under Rs 2,000 crores of sales last year and we do expect th at that number will get closer to Rs 3,000 crores for the full year. So, our expectation is closer to Rs 3,000 crores, not Rs 4000 crores for Pune for this fiscal.

Pritesh Sheth

And one last is on the embedded EBITDA margin perf ormance. So, in this quarter was 33%, last quarter, which was 31%, while our guidance for the full year FY’25 is still 31%. So, again it was just more to do with the mix of sales during the quarter, which led to the embedded EBITDA margins or we should see this improvement going ahead and eventually it would flow down in your guidance as well?

Abhishek Lodha

As I said, reading too much into one quarter would not be prudent, but yes, there is some upward positive bias towards the embedded EBITDA margin. We want to sort of see how that pans out over the next quarter or so before we sort of start seeing how that would reflect in our long-term guidance. But yes, I think while the mix of sales has had a c ontribution to make, but even add this about 6%, 7% price growth, we see that EBITDA margins move up modestly, and we do think that in the course of the decade, we can move from the low-30s towards the mid-30s in terms of our underlying EBITDA margins.

Moderator

The next question is from the line of Parikshit Kh andpal from HDFC Securities. Please go ahead.

P Khandpal

Abhishek, earlier in the call, you spoke about add ing new locations. You are evaluating a couple of new locations. Just wanted to understand which part of India you are looking at and what kind of potential sales you are looking to do from these locations in the next to three to five years?

Abhishek Lodha

In terms of our evaluation, as I mentioned in my r emarks, we are approaching the end of our pilot phase in Bangalore and we are hopeful that in the course of this fiscal year, we’ll be able to confirm that our pilot has successfully concluded and we are now at a stage where we feel comfortable in the Bangalore market to expand our presence there. In l ine with that, we are also studying any new markets, new cities that we can start a pilot process, because that process for us is a six to 12 months study process and then a three-to-four-year pilot process. So, it’s a fairly long process that we follow before we make substantial commitments in any new c ity. Having said that, we are currently exploring a couple of cities and hope that in the course of this year we’ll be able to conclude on any of those cities we want to start our pilot in. Over the next three years, we don’t expect this new cit y to contribute any significant amounts in terms of our overall pre-sales. Pilot phase by definition is an exploratory phase and therefore we don’t expect any substantial contribution from the new cities. For the next three years, you should focus on Mumbai, P une and Bangalore as the drivers of our performance and growth.

P Khandpal

Second question is on capital allocation. So, give n that we have a mix of JDA and outright which we have laid out, but in case if we get say a large op portunity where the big cheques has to be written, so say 2,000 or 3,000 crore cheque, maybe a 10-year kind of a project, so how flexible or open we are, what quantum do you think can go in large writing large cheque given we have a strong balance sheet now?

Abhishek Lodha

While we consciously work towards a strong balance sheet, we are also very prudent in terms of our capital allocation and risk appetite. As I mentione d and Prashant also mentioned, our focus is on diversified granular growth rather than just having from one chunky growth and we like to cap any single location exposure to about 5% of our networt h in general, in exceptional cases it may be slightly higher, maybe 6-7%. But we are really not in a position where we want to go out and allocate huge amounts of capital to single location.

P Khandpal

Single location or you mean a single project, I me an, could it be a single land?

Abhishek Lodha

I should have said, single project.

Moderator

Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question f or today. We have reached the end of the question- and-answer session. I would now like to hand the co nference over to Mr. Anand Kumar for closing comments.

Thank you, everyone for joining the call today. I hope we have been able to answer all your questions. If you have any further questions or would like to have any additional information, we would be happy to be of assistance. Feel free to reach out t o the IR team for the same. And on behalf of Macrotech, I once again thank you for taking the time to join us today. Thank you.

Moderator

On behalf of Macrotech Developers, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.