Petronet LNG Limited

Jun 2025 call

2025-07-28 Transcript PDF
Moderator

Thank you. The first question is from the line of Param Vora from Trinetra Asset Managers. Please go ahead.

Trinetra Asset Managers

Thank you taking my question. So what I wanted to ask was that how is the company managing global LNG price volatility and geopolitical risk, especially in terms of long -term supply contracts?

Saurav Mitra

So I would request Mr. Vivek Mittal to briefly answer to this query.

Vivek Mittal

Thank you, sir. So of course, our contracts are linked to oil prices. So oil prices have not been very volatile. In fact, they have been subdued. So they are holding in the range of $65 to $70. So we don't see any risk or any challenge from the geopolitica l side. Of course, the spot prices have been slightly volatile, but it's still range bound.

Gyanendra Sharma

I think if you see spot prices though, as compared to the alternate fuel, might be on upper side. But still, we would say they are not hovering somewhere which we witnessed 2 years back. So the LNG market is quite stable now.

Vivek Mittal

There are no challenges we are seeing from that side.

Trinetra Asset Managers

Okay. And as sales growth has been soft over the past 5 years, what are the new strategies being implemented to reignite the top line growth?

Vivek Mittal

The demand is a function of various sectors. So this quarter, if you look at, there was low demand from power sector and fertilizer sector compared to the Q1 of FY '2 5. So that's the reason we see a decline in demand in this quarter. But otherwise, if you look at our previous quarters, the demand has been pretty stable and robust. Overall, we processed 251 TBTU -- sorry, 220 TBTU this quarter compared to 205 TBTU in the previous quarter.

Trinetra Asset Managers

Okay, thank you. I will get back in the queue.

Moderator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Maulik Patel from Equirus. Please go ahead.

Thanks for the opportunity. A couple of questions. One on the recent agreement you signed with Deepak Fertilisers for about 26 TBTU or approximately 1.1 million tons. Can you just tell the start date? And you mentioned that also 20% additional revenue option is there. So please, I mean, just detail that. And within that, is the pricing or the regas tariff is similar to what currently the customers are paying?

Vivek Mittal

So the pricing is absolutely the same, what we charge under our other long-term agreement. And the volume is minimum 0.5 million tons, starting somewhere between May to -- I think the press release was very clear, so between May to July 2026. And there is a potential for another 20%, which means depending on how much volume they get from supplier, it can go up to 0.65 million tons, roughly.

Got it. Got it. And we understand that GAIL has been working their Dabhol unit in this monsoon. Historically, you've been getting around 1 million ton kind of additional volume during the monsoon months when Dabhol doesn't work. Do you think that can continue? Or it was just only in June they got some volume, and July they are back to Dahej? Any clarity and thoughts on that side?

Gyanendra Sharma

See, this may be a cyclical or maybe temporary phenomenon. Otherwise, Indian market, the way gas market is growing, there is enough -- ample opportunity for every one of us. And that's the reason we are expanding our terminal. And you would have seen the r ecent contract which we have done with DFPCL Group Company. So Dahej is a preferred terminal considering multiple factors. It has the connectivity, the storage capability and all.

No, no sir, my question is that will this 1 million ton this year, it will not be there? Or do you think it will be some 0.6 million ton, 0.5 million ton, 0.4 million ton will come this year?

Vivek Mittal

See, market demand is growing. India's demand is bound to grow and it is growing also. So we don't see a new terminal coming up for expansion or running of Dabhol around the year makes any significant difference to operations of Dahej terminal.

Okay. And sir, the last question. Any update on the Qatar extension? Have you signed anything within the offtakers? And what is the progress and update on that side?

Vivek Mittal

See, as we mentioned last time also, the deal we have signed with Qatar is based on the assurance that the volume will be offtaken by GAIL, IOC L, BPCL in a predetermined ratio. So that commitment still holds. The downstream agreements are being worked upon. We are trying to find what is the best and optimal solution to sell these volumes. So those discussions are ongoing.

Vivek Mittal

Not at this point of time. We cannot give…

Thank you and wish you all the good luck.

Moderator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of S. Ramesh from Nirmal Bang Equities. Please go ahead.

Nirmal Bang Equities

Yes. So the first thought is on the slowdown we saw in the first quarter. So how is the demand from the fertilizer and power sector for this quarter? And how do you see the trending demand for FY '26, given that there seems to be a slowdown in the overall gas demand, particularly because of the competition from alternative fuels?

Saurav Mitra

So Debabrata Satpathy would answer this question.

Nirmal Bang Equities

Yes. That and how do you see the demand for this quarter? Because last quarter was down compared to the year ago quarter. How do you see the consumption growth in this quarter compared to the year-ago quarter?

Debabrata Satpathy

Yes. So basically, the demand from the last quarter, as you see, it has started recovering. The overall throughput from our Dahej terminal has been 10% higher than the last quarter. And at an overall level, the company has done 7% higher. The thing is that although the long-term prices as it has been told already, the long -term prices that are crude -linked, that are remaining at a very, very affordable level for the Indian market. That long-term throughput has also gone up. And there is still a difference between the long term and the spot prices. Actually, that is dragging the overall demand as per the market scenario right now. So what we foresee is that in the current year, probably that kind of difference could linger on for some time. But from the next year onwards, from CY '26 onwards, with the availability of ample of gas in the -- LNG in the global market, basically, that issue will also be sorted out. That is what we are looking at.

Nirmal Bang Equities

Okay. So the next thought is, can you give us the details of the inventory and trading impact, if any, and the regas tariff?

Debabrata Satpathy

The inventory gain was INR42 crores in this quarter. And trading gain because of the current market pricing scenario, the trading gain was not there.

Nirmal Bang Equities

And what about the regasification contribution?

Debabrata Satpathy

It is INR643 crores.

Nirmal Bang Equities

INR645 crores (slightly muted). Thank you very much and I will join the queue.

Moderator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Varatharajan Sivasankaran from Antique Limited. Please go ahead.

Yes. So the Kochi terminal utilization seems to have come down a little bit. Any specific reason for that?

Saurav Mitra

No, it's a common phenomenon for the last quite a few quarters, as you have seen. And what we have been telling all this while is that Kochi, we are expecting the utilization to go up once the pipeline connectivity is set up. And we expect that by the end of this calendar year or maybe at the most by the end of this financial year, the pipeline is going to come up, which is being laid by GAIL. And once this connectivity is set up, the utilization is going to go up.

And currently, like would you be in a position to give us who's taking what from Kochi terminal?

Saurav Mitra

Sorry?

Saurav Mitra

Okay. So I would say, major offtaker is obviously BPCL from Kochi. And to supplement my answer, I would request Mr. Gyanendra Sharma to carry on with this conversation.

Gyanendra Sharma

At Kochi, as DF sir informed, major is BPCL, it consumes in its refinery, as well as it has its customers. And others, GAIL and IOCL are also providing gas supply to fertilizer and refinery.

Gyanendra Sharma

Customer because they are not our direct customers, it won't be appropriate for us to speak on behalf of our offtakers.

Vivek Mittal

The only thing we can add is that this quarter, FACT took a shutdown for almost 1.5 months. So that's the reason you see some decline in the volumes. They consume around 1 MMSCMD. So there was a small decline on account of that. But that was the same case in the last year's first quarter also. So compared to last year first quarter, the volumes are quite similar.

Moderator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Sabri Hazarika from Emkay Global. Sabri Hazarika from Emkay Global.

Emkay Global

Yes. So two questions. Firstly, on this Gopalpur terminal, is there a minimum offtake kind of an assumption also before going ahead with it? Or even if it doesn't happen, you'll start construction. Because you've given a 3 years' time line, so would you start work ri ght away or probably get some offtake first?

Saurav Mitra

So definitely, discussions are on with the probable offtakers. And they are -- the major offtakers will be our promoters only. But we will not wait for finalization of the offtake agreements because that will delay our project. So simultaneously, we will start construction of the terminal and at the same time have, parallel discussions with our offtakers.

Emkay Global

Okay. Fair enough. And second question is on this Gorgon Phase 2 volume. So when is it starting? And how much would be the volumes?

Gyanendra Sharma

This is likely to start towards end of this financial year. And 1.2 MMTPA is the contract and initially it will be 0.5 MMTPA.

Gyanendra Sharma

15 years.

Gyanendra Sharma

For 2 years.

Vivek Mittal

That's right.

Moderator

The next question is from the line of Tanay Kotecha from Nuvama.

Hey. Hi, sir. I just wanted to get a refresher regarding your accounting policy for the provisioning part on the UOP dues.

Saurav Mitra

So Chawla ji, if you can please...

Rakesh Chawla

See, as you know, this use or pay dues that are part of the contractual obligation by the offtakers. So, this is being recognized. However, as a prudent accounting practice, provisioning is being done. So, what we are doing is first year of -- when the amount is not paid, we are making 20% provision and next year 30%, making it cumulatively 50%. And then the third year, where this flexibility period is over, we are making the balance provision of 50%. So, making it cumulatively 100% in 3 years. This is as per the practice -- prudent accounting practice we are following. And as you know, calendar year '21 use or pay amount was received by us in last year. So ultimately, this provision is only accounting practice. Company is already confident that this is contractual dues and we are likely to get full money, or during this flexibility period, if somebody wants to bring volume, they are.

Rakesh Chawla

For the CY’21, We have already received the full money or the volume whatever the offtakers like, because INR360 crores and odd was paid by the offtakers.

Moderator

The next question is from the line of S. Ramesh from Nirmal Bang Equities.

Nirmal Bang Equities

Yes, thank you for the follow-up. So, when you discussed this additional volume, discussed with Gorgon, the initial Phase 1 was about 2.5 MMTPA to 2.6 MMTPA, if I understand correctly, right? And that has to be taken in Kochi. So, if you take this 1.2 MMTPA Pha se 2, overall, you've got an aggregate , gas supply arrangement with Gorgon about 3.5 MMTPA to 3.7 MMTPA. Is that understanding correct?

Saurav Mitra

No, no, no. I don't think your understanding is correct. It is very clear the contract is for 1.2 million metric ton per annum, and it's going to commence from 2026. It will go on till 2036.

Vivek Mittal

And the existing contract is for 1.42 million tons.

Nirmal Bang Equities

Yes, that's what I meant. So that means...

Vivek Mittal

It's around 2.6 MMTPA.

Saurav Mitra

Yes.

Saurav Mitra

The potential is much more. It's a 5 million metric ton per annum terminal.

Nirmal Bang Equities

I understand that. But in terms of the gas supply sourcing arrangement, you can go up to 2.6 MMTPA. And for the rest, you have to…

Saurav Mitra

Yes. So far as long-term contracts are concerned, you are correct, it's about 2.63 MMTPA.

Nirmal Bang Equities

Yes. Sir, on this accounting which you explained, so whatever provision you're making, right now it will be actually treated as cash outflow, right, in terms of cash flow? And then when it is over, it will come back as cash inflow? Or it's just a noncash entry? How do we see the cash flow impact for these provisions?

Rakesh Chawla

See, the accounting provision is a noncash flow entry because already we have recognized the income in our books. So, this is a provision only. This is not a cash outflow type of thing.

Moderator

The next question is from the line of Kirtan Mehta from Baroda BNP Paribas Mutual Fund.

Baroda BNP Paribas Mutual Fund

Thank you, sir, for this opportunity. Could you update us on the status of expansion at Dahej from 17.5 MMTPA to 22.5 MMTPA. Also highlight the tank that have we have commissioned, how was it utilized during the quarter? And what was its contribution to the margin? And in terms of the Jetty, where are we at this point of time?

Saurav Mitra

Okay. So, I'll start in a reverse manner. The Jetty construction is going on as per the schedule. And so far as the regas expansion capacity is concerned, there were some slippages because of the monsoon and as well as the war-like situation which had emerged. And because of that, there were enhanced security concerns from both the government side as well as from our side. So, it has slightly impacted the construction work, but we don't see much of a delay. So, by end of this calendar year, we should be able to complete the construction and start the commissioning exercise. And by Q1 of next calendar year, we should have a stable enhanced capacity terminal working.

Baroda BNP Paribas Mutual Fund

Right. What is the target timeline for Dahej Jetty at this point of time?

Vivek Mittal

Total construction? The third jetty you're talking about? 2027. And as you know, it will be capable of handling LNG, ethane and propane. So,2027.

Baroda BNP Paribas Mutual Fund

Right. And how was the completion of tank utilized during the quarter? What was its contribution to profitability? You were expecting some trading volume out of that.

Vivek Mittal

See, the tank is only a support system to the regasification facility. So once the regasification facility comes on stream, then only we can say that how much additionally we have been able to utilize. But tanks have overall added to the flexibility, which we provide to our capacity holders on the volumes we bring in.

Saurav Mitra

Yes. Again, I would like to state that the work is going on full steam and it is on track. So, we expect this plant to come up as per schedule.

Baroda BNP Paribas Mutual Fund

Any more granularity in terms of would you be able to share in terms of the particular milestones that we have achieved during the quarter? And what are the target milestones for the Q2?

Saurav Mitra

Okay. So, we have actually placed almost -- out of the 11 LLIs and 13 packages, we have almost floated tenders of all the packages and LLIs except a few where we feel that time is not yet right enough. And we have also awarded a few critical long lead item orders. So that's where as of now we stand today.

Moderator

The next question is from the line of Somaiah from Avendus Spark.

Somaiah

Yes. I missed the initial part of the call. Sorry in case the question gets repeated. Sir, the capex outing for the next couple of years and how much…

Moderator

Sorry to interrupt, sir. Sir, your audio quality is not clear.

Somaiah

Sir, just wanted to understand -- yes, the capex outlook for the next couple of years and also what is the amount that we have spent on petchem so far and how we plan to phase the petchem spend over the next two years, three years? That's the first question.

Saurav Mitra

Okay. If you talk about this quarter, the petchem spent is around INR500 crores and -- up till date. And going forward, we have lined up a capex program of around INR30,000 crores and out of which the major share or the lion's share is allocated to the pet chem plant only. And that is what I think I can share as of now.

Somaiah

Sir, the plans for current year and next year, sir, in terms of what will be the capex?

Saurav Mitra

So, this year we have targeted a capex of around INR5,000 crores.

Somaiah

And this will be majorly for petchem, no?

Saurav Mitra

It will be for the third jetty, for petchem and also some of the other projects that we have taken up. Like, we have got the in-principle approval of Gopalpur terminal. So there we'll be spending around -- we plan to spend around INR300 crores on that. And then we have a corporate office building in Nauroji Nagar coming up. So we plan to spend about INR100 crores there. Then CBG plants, we have been mandated by the Ministry to put up around 25 CBG plants. So we have plans to spend around INR100- odd crores there. And there are other small items like small-scale LNG and LNG bunkering facility at Kochi. So these are the major items which I can spell out right now.

Somaiah

Understood, sir. So we should expect a similar run rate next year also in FY '27 also, INR5,000 crores?

Somaiah

Understood, sir. You mentioned this quarter, we have spent INR500 crores on petchem. So cumulatively, so far, what would be the spend on petchem till date?

Saurav Mitra

So that's what I'm telling. Till the end of this quarter, the cumulative spend is around INR500 crores.

Somaiah

Got it, sir. So second question on the Gopalpur terminal, that is earlier thought of an FSRU now to a land -based and also 4 MMT to 5 MMT. If you could just help us in the broad thought process, what led to a change here? That is one. And second, also if you could help us understand the pipeline connectivity in and around the plant facility. So do we have already pipelines in place for offtake or we are waiting for some more connectivity there?

Saurav Mitra

Okay. So, Gopalpur, first, I would like to say that, Gopalpur is away from a major trunk pipeline by about 35-odd kilometers. And once we put up this pipeline and connect it to the trunk pipeline, our offtake will not be an issue. And secondly, the shiftin g of plan from FSRU to land- based terminal makes sense because we have observed that the cost of a floating vessel-based terminal has gone up by a huge amount. And the savings in opex that we will make if we go for a land- based terminal, it makes sense definitely for us to take a decision in favour of shifting from an FSRU to a land-based terminal.

Somaiah

Got it, sir. Sir, you mentioned 35 kilometers we can get connected to that main trunk pipeline. So that trunk pipeline, which are the areas that it is getting connected to. I just want to understand which will be the potential set of customers, larger customers like refineries or steel plants or…

Saurav Mitra

Okay. Once we -- actually, see, GAIL has already one pipeline from Srikakulam to…

Gyanendra Sharma

Angul-Srikakulam.

Saurav Mitra

Angul-Srikakulam, yes, pipeline is already there. So from Gopalpur, if we set up this pipeline and connect it to this main trunk pipeline of GAIL, we will have access to North, whereby we'll be connected to the National Gas Grid, and we can reach up to the Northeast in Bihar, West Bengal, Jharkhand, entire area will come under our hinterland. And down South also, the pipeline can cater to -- if it is further extended up to Vizag, it will cater to the refinery and then some of the big steel plants and aluminium plants of Hindalco that's already there. So they are -- they could be the major consumption centres for this -- for our terminal.

Somaiah

Got it, sir. And what would be the breakeven utilization for this 5 MT facility?

Saurav Mitra

Okay. So it's going to be -- if you see in -- except Dahej, none of our terminals in India are operating at more than 50% right now. But yes, going forward, we foresee a growth of around 6% to 7% in the gas consumption. So maybe once this comes up after three years, three and half years, because we have projected this three years' timeline from the date of getting our EC, and we are expecting this EC in a couple of months' time. So once this comes up, maybe from 20 -- CY '28, '29, we'll start with a capacity of 20% utilization and then slowly we'll ramp it up to around 80% to 90%.

Somaiah

Okay. Sir, one last question. The trading gains and inventory impact in the current quarter?

Debabrata Satpathy

Inventory gain was INR42 crores and there was no trading gain.

Somaiah

Got it, sir. Helpful. Thank you.

Yes, while the queue assembles, this is Probal here, sir, if I can disturb for a couple of questions. One was on the broader LNG market that we see at this point of time. We've been hearing about the kind of capacities that are coming up globally in terms of liquefaction and, obviously, Indian players have also tied up a lot of capacities for offtake. So how do we see the market evolving for Indian customers? What kind of mix do you see between long term and short term and what kind of pricing scenario do you see?

Gyanendra Sharma

Thank you. I think you have asked a very valid question. If you see in the next 3 to 4 years, around 180 MMTPA capacity is going to be online and LNG supply side. And the major markets targeted, India will be one of them because we know Europe and Japan are quite saturated. India, China are going to take this major capacities. Considering that lot of supply is coming in, the prices are expected to be more comfortable or more affordable, meaning by the demands, we'll catch up. So India's the projection, max by 2028 to '30, the LNG consumption is expected to be more than double and that to crux, India needs to keep up pace with the infrastructure. It should not so happen that prices are affordable and India is lacking the import infrastructure. And that's the reason one of the key PLL is coming up with Gopalpur. And at the right time, around '28, the terminal will be available online. And as you know, multiple pipelines are coming; Nagpur to Jharsuguda; Angul Srikakulam, JHBDPL is already there; Northeast grid is getting completed. So the major demand center, the maximum growth center, I would say, will be that part of Eastern Coast of India. And PLL will be ready to take care of that supply.

Right, sir. Moderator, can we take one last question?

Moderator

All right. Thank you. The next question is from the line of Mayank from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Mayank

I didn't join the entire call. I think there were some logistical issues. I just had a question around the terminal that you were just talking about. If you think about it from a perspective of single nation, single grid that PNGRB has been talking about, how do you see this terminal kind of playing out for you? Could it be the next Dahej for you or could it be even bigger? How should we think about that?

Gyanendra Sharma

You have rightly answered, it will be next Dahej. As I told just a couple of minutes back, the kind of pipeline network coming up there, it will be just parallel to what Dahej has presently 5 pipeline we have here and similar kind of connectivity Gopalpur is expected to have. And the kind of demand, if we see, till now the W estern part of country was like growing gas consumption. And as we know, Gujarat more than the global average, 24%, 25%, it is now time for Eastern part of the country, number one. Number two, if you see the demand to be catered from Central part of India to the Eastern part of India, need to have a proper distribution of regas terminal, so that the pipeline hydraulics is maintained. Also for the energy security point of view of the country, it is very important to have diversified portfolio of terminals. So I hope this is likely to be next Dahej.

Mayank

Sir, just a follow-up on that, if I may. Because Dahej has a very big advantage of being the first mover and lower capex per unit. Do you see that advantage still remaining with Gopalpur? Or do you think -- because there are certain terminals which are alr eady on the Eastern Coast, do you think that will be something there will be a bit of a competition that you have to worry about?

Saurav Mitra

We are not bothered about competition. See, had it been so, then we would not have taken this call on Gopalpur. And PLL has some inherent advantages in terms of our experience of handling regas terminals for so many years, number one. And number two, we can also offer swapping of cargoes then to our off-takers from West Coast to East Coast. And then another point which Mr. Sharma has spoken about is very important. It's that pipeline hydraulics. So, so far as pipeline network hydraulics is concerned, it will give us an advantage to have Gopalpur terminal in place, because there's a lot of ind ustries coming up as well as operating nearby, which is definitely going to help this terminal to fare better in the coming years despite having some other terminals nearby.

Moderator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this was the last question. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Probal Sen for the closing comments. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

Thank you, Bhavya. Thanks so much for everyone taking the time to attend the call. I would invite the management if they have any closing comments.

Saurav Mitra

Thank you, and we hope to meet again soon with some more encouraging results. Thank you.

Thank you very much, sir. Thank you, everyone. We can now log off from the call. Thank you.

Moderator

Thank you. On behalf of Petronet LNG Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.