Signatureglobal (India) Limited analyst Q&A

Thank you very much, sir. We will now begin with the question-and-answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask questions may press "*" and "1" on their touchstone phone. If you wish to withdraw yourself from the question queue, you may press "*" and "2". Participants are requested to use only handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. You may please press "*" and "1" to ask questions. The first question is from the line of Pritesh Sheth from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.

Yes, thank you for the opportunity. And I think congrats on a great nine months, meeting most of the guidance across parameters. Just first question on, you know, cash flows where probably only metric where we seem to be lagging a bit. So, you know, how has been Q4 till date? I mean, one, one-and-a-half months already through that, you know, and what giving you confidence of achieving that 6,000 crore guidance? Is it like already we have started getting good chunk of cash flows or it's going to be back ended with the kind of completions which are expected in Q4? So, your thoughts on cash flows or collections, I would rather say.

So, Pritesh, thanks for the question. So, Pritesh, it's a mix of both the factors. There are quite a few completions which are lined up for this quarter and collections in general are improving, you know, at a steady pace on a quarter-on-quarter basis. So, you know, both of these things are keeping us confident to keep the guidance constant. And even at a more fundamental level, I wouldn't say all, but the bulk of the sales which we have done on a life-to-date basis are mostly on a construction-linked plan basis, besides very few aberrations. So, effectively, see, if sales are happening, collections are bound to happen. And a lot of sales we have done is towards the end of some of the previous quarters. Like, you know, in the June quarter, it was a lot towards the end of June, likewise in September, while the previous quarter was quite well spread. So, we expect collections to improve, you know, significantly during this quarter and that's why we have kept the guidance number constant.

Got it. Just a small follow-up on that. So, you know, probably till now, if I see monthly run rate was roughly 300-odd crores of collections every month, has that already started increasing to, let's say, 400-500 crores a month for Jan or probably will still be back-ended in that sense in the quarter?

Pritesh, I prefer not to spell out numbers beyond what we have released. But yes, I think for this quarter, the collections will be much higher than the previous one.

Fair enough. Got it. And second, on the diversification bit beyond Gurgaon, obviously you stated that Gurgaon has a lot of opportunity, but Delhi is kind of now opening up as an opportunity for us. So, what's the scope for us in terms of development there? Would we be looking at the land pooling policy as a scope of development or we will be going for redevelopment of those old colonies which the new government is probably targeting to give approvals on? So, what's the sense on that?

So, see, policy framework, first and foremost, will take shape. So, there are a lot of areas where greenfield developments are possible. So, Delhi is broken up into newer zones where there is still a lot of open areas. So, it will throw up a lot of opportunities on the greenfield development site. And you know, what we expect or anticipate for the company is like in Gurgaon, you know, we have picked up three markets where we have three micro markets where we do kind of a sustained supply. Hopefully in times to come in Delhi also, you know, we will pick more than one kind of micro market where we will again try to capture like a significant position so that, you know, we stay relevant within that micro market and work over there on a longer span of time. So hopefully, you know, it will add a couple of micro markets for us where, you know, we create positions and do sustained supply of products.

Sure, sir. But just one small follow-up again there. I mean, we haven't seen too much of potential in what Delhi presents as a residential real estate. You know, maybe four or five years down the line, do you expect Delhi for you would be as big as what it is, Gurgaon right now? Or probably, you know, even if it's half of it, you will be happy with that kind of number from Delhi?

So, Pritesh, we have never seen or rather no one seen action ever in Delhi because there was no relevant kind of bylaws through which someone could have developed new land. You know, DDA was always auctioning very few parcels of land which were very expensive and hence, you know, doing mid-income housing was not very doable. You know, these were smaller parcels of land of one, two, three acres, five acres. And larger parcels were often developed by DDA in an aggressive way till a point in time. But somewhere last, you know, one or two decades, DDA has not done a lot of development, a lot of open, as in, you know, private land has not come into development. So, to answer your point, it's a little premature to say how large will it become, but definitely this is like a sizable sort of, you know, an opportunity. It could be anything, you know, whether it be half times the existing signature or becomes one time the existing signature. You know, it's tough to say at this stage, but yes, this is like something which is meaningful. This will not be like, you know, seeding a new market by buying, you know, 10, 15, 20 acres of land. It's not that sort of a scenario we are talking about here.

Sure, got it. That's pretty helpful. That's it from my side and all the best.

Thank you, Pritesh.

Yes. Very good morning, sir. And thank you very much for this opportunity. So, just wanted to understand, I think in the presentation and in the speech also, you mentioned that we aim to deliver these ongoing projects in coming five to six quarters, right?

Yes, that's correct.

So, that is about 11 million square feet odd. So, what would be the value of those 11 million square feet in rupees crores?

So, this will be between 7,000 to 8,000 crores.

So, at ASP of 7,000 to 8,000 crores. So, what effectively it means that this total value stands at which we expect to deliver is close to about 9,000 crores, right?

No, it's , yes, closer to 7 to 8,000 crores, you know, what effectively will be the output of this 11 billion square foot. Closer to 8,000 odd crores.

8,000 crores. So, out of this 8,000 crores, you expect around, I mean, what, 1,800 crores to be realized in this quarter itself? I mean, because we are already halfway through the quarter, right? I mean, you would have a good visibility because you are maintaining your guidance of 3,800 crores in this year. 2,000 we have already done in nine months.

So, Deepak, see, in terms of completions, we are quite advanced on multiple projects. But, you know, often in terms of revenue recognition, it's quite a binary situation because at the end of the quarter, you know, you should have completed and collected more than 90% from the customers. So, it tends to stay binary. By and large, this kind of completion is happening, you know, within the 12-month span. Whether revenue recognition happens before 12 months or a little after 12 months is something, you know, we don't ourselves know till the time, you know, the quarter ends and we take stock of it. But our activity level has been there to kind of achieve these kind of completion targets.

Okay. And what sort of revenue recognition we are targeting for next year, FY '26?

FY '26, a little early to comment, but yes, it would be at least 50%, you know, 40 to 50% higher than what we will end up achieving for this year. At least 40% higher, if not more.

At least 40% higher versus FY '25.

And just one last thing on your, I mean, we are talking about embedded EBITDA margin of 35% on current sales, right?

Yes.

So, I mean, but there is always a huge difference between what you report versus what is embedded. I mean, in future, will we ever see a convergence of your embedded versus your reported margins? I mean, any thought process on that would be helpful. I know, I mean, current, whatever, nine months we have done, it's done at a lower ASP of 7,000-odd. And these embedded, what you are talking about, is at 11,000, maybe 11, 12,000 per square feet. But ideally, when this pre-sales was happened, at that time also, embedded margin was at least 20- 25%, right? But it doesn't translate to your reported EBITDA margin. Yes. So, thought…

That's a very good question, Deepak. And I will also try to answer it in a very fundamental or layman way that, see, our numbers have grown almost in a J-shaped manner over the last three to four years. What you are seeing in terms of revenue recognition is mostly the size and scale of the company which existed about 3 to 4 years ago. However, a lot of SG&A expenses, which you see pertain to the current scale of performance. That's why while the gross margins are at 27-28%, if we were still operating, you know, at those kind of scale in terms of pre-sales today, let's say if we were doing hypothetically, let's say, you know, 25-30% of the sales which we are currently doing, you know, probably our SG&A expenses would have been much lower and you would have seen an EBITDA margin anywhere between 15 to 20, more closer to 20%. But since at revenue recognition level and gross profit level, we are seeing what the company was when these projects were launched three to four years ago, right? Completion cycle is at least four years in a construction business. But your SG&A expenses are basis the current level of operations. So, that's why it's kind of a double whammy in terms of the reported numbers that for a company which has grown so fast but courtesy of the revenue recognition policy, which makes revenue recognition quite back-ended in nature, you know, it will take some more time before you will see a good surge in the profitability levels. And yes, there will need to be some convergence between the revenue recognized and the pre-sales being done. And I will add to it, even in terms of volume, if you will see, like in terms of pre-sales, we have sold close to 7 million square foot. During the nine months itself, we have completed about 2.7. So, even if you were to extrapolate this 2.7 number for the year, you know, we are completing close to 4 million, selling 7 million. So, the difference is, you know, maybe not as high as it is in value terms. Because value terms, you know, if you will see the current sales are at Rs. 12,000 or close to Rs. 13,000 a foot. Completion is of Rs. 7,000 product. So, you know, a couple of these things are adding up and compounding this lower number on EBITDA and profitability side which you are seeing. And that's why we are being extremely cautious while giving these implied profitability assumptions in our public sort of documents.

Correct. But this scale-up will continue to happen, right? I mean, currently we are looking to deliver 11 million square feet, and the launches and forthcoming project is close to about 35 million square feet. So, we will continue to, I mean, we will continue to scale-up, right, our business. And that is the right thing to do. So, ideally, this SG&A expense will keep coming, right? I mean, so your convergence between your reported and EBITDA will take a lot of time, ideally.

See, convergence is happening or will happen, but yes, we feel it's good if, you know, convergence doesn't happen too fast because it basically represents that a lot of underlying growth is taking place in the company, while, you know, completion happens in its own way. But the other part is that, see, pricing also moved quite swiftly in the Gurgaon market over the last one or two years which is kind of stabilizing. So, even in value terms, we don't foresee in the next couple of years, prices to double from the current level. Yes, they will grow because there is still a lot of demand for the product. But we have kept everything, we have kind of disclosed everything, whether it be pre-sales, imply profitability to actually revenue recognition. And that's why it's important to read in between the lines while taking calls of investments.

And when we do expect for this, I mean, 10-11,000 realization to start hitting? I mean, currently we are at about whatever revenue recognition is happening is for 7,000 kind of realization, right? So, how many quarters we are away, I mean, to start seeing this 10- 11,000 kind of a realization?

See, our immediate target is to complete the 11 million square foot portfolio. Okay. So, that will happen over the next five to six quarters. While that has happened, see, this year we launched a couple of large township projects, whether it be DAXIN, there were certain plotted development within that, or within City of Colors, you know, there is quite a bit of, you know, plotted areas which has been sold. So, the profitability level on these products is good and they take lesser time to complete. So, I think once we have completed this 11 million square foot around immediately thereafter, you will see completion of some of these plotted developments taking place, which will have higher profitability.

Which will have higher profitability, and this 11 million square, you already mentioned it's at 7,000 only. I mean, next four, five quarters, right?

No, it will be on average somewhat higher. But yes, this still comprises of projects which we sold under the affordable housing policy or where we would have sold mid-income homes in Sohna or in peripheral markets of Gurgaon. So, yes, I think this will be a mix of all of these products.

Understood. And just one final question, I mean, for the next year, then FY '26, so what sort of reported EBITDA margin range one should look at, I mean, after considering all this SG&A expense coming through?

We can compute that and separately, you know, you can write to us and we will respond to that.

Okay, fair enough, I think that would be it from my side. All the very best to you. Thank you so much.

Thank you very much.

Thank you, sir. Participants, you may please press "*" and "1" to ask questions. We will take the next question from the line of Adhidev Chattopadhyay from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.

Yes, good morning, everyone. Thanks for the opportunity. So, if you just, Rajat, if you just tell us now on the launch plans for the next two or three quarters, how you are looking to phase out, especially in Sohna and Sector 71. And if any other new markets, micro markets and Gurgaon are on the anvil. And also, what is the pending cumulative GDV of the entire projects we have on hand currently? Yes, that is the first question.

Sure, Adhidev. So, see, the two larger launches which will be coming up will be one in 37D. There is about 14 acres of land, about 3 million plus, you know, square foot of area which will come up. That's a fairly large project which will launch. Even in Sector 71, Adhidev, we will be doing Phase 2 of Titanium. So, there was always like an unlaunched portion. There are new, almost like five new tasks which are expected to be launched over there. So, about 1.6 to 1.7 million square foot of areas getting launched in sector 71. And even in Sohna market, you know, we have been gradually adding up supply of the independent floors, which we have done over the last three to four months. So, in all these three markets, there is sustained supply. In addition to that, there are some more smaller sort of areas which are kind of getting launched. But most of us apply over the next, you know, six to nine months or at least six months, you will see in some of these key micro markets which are performing as desired.

So, the unlaunched portion of our land resource is closer to 21.5 million square foot, which in our view should fetch a GDV of close to 350 billion.

Okay, this is apart from what we have done. Okay. So, and just then on that follow-up on our land bank replenishment, right? And obviously, you talked about the possibility of expanding into the Delhi market as well. So, in terms of land bank addition, what is the sort of GDP additions you will be looking at annually from here on? So, now that we are crossing almost 10,000 crores this year. And what is the annual sort of land spend also you are looking to do? If you could just help us understand that part. Yes.

So, if you look at the last nine-month trend only, Adhidev, so, out of the surplus, about half the surplus went into land acquisition. So about 12 billion, we created a surplus. About 47% of that was deployed towards land acquisition. If you look at the nine-month pre-sale in volume terms was closer to 7 million square foot. But if you look at the land aggregation over the 10-month span, including the month of January because, see, this can't be done on a monthly basis. We have added, like, closer to 3 million in 37D, about 2.7 in, you know, 71. So, about 5.7 million of replenishment has also happened. So, we stay put on that target that we keep replenishing our land as we are selling it in Gurgaon and peripheral areas. Delhi is absolutely like, you know, a new plan. I would say no one had anything in Delhi. But yes, you know, since we are local in this market, you know, we will be quick to add on to the opportunity which the market will throw for real estate developers.

Okay. So, it is safe to say excluding Delhi, right, 1,500 to 2,000 crores would suffice for us in terms of the land bank spend for the next couple of years on an annual basis? Is it a number or it could go a little higher depending on our growth aspirations?

No, for Gurgaon, we don't need to go higher. For Gurgaon, I think up to 1,500 is like a fairly good sort of target.

Sure. And final question on how the health of the Gurgaon market is, right? Is there any segment where you are seeing things are doing better than the other in terms of the demand? This is just a generic question, I know, but any segment, any ticket size, any pricing, any micro market which is doing faring better, where you see demand is more buoyant as compared to the other ones? Yes.

So, Adhidev, I prefer to speak for, you know, on our behalf. So, the segments we are operating wherein mid-income housing is at the core of the strategy. And you know, we have done some bit of experimentation, you could say. We have done products which are more towards the premium side. We have also done slightly larger size products, whether it be DAXIN or City of Colors. And we have seen fairly good response on both of these sort of product expansions which we have done. But we are seeing demands for consumption to be fairly steady. If you are launching products at rightful sort of price points, it's kind of staying steady. And we prefer to just kind of keep doing it. In general, we feel the market is doing reasonable. The price movement upwards has slowed down and transaction volumes are doing good.

Sure. That is pretty helpful. Yes. I will come back if I have more questions here. Thank you.

Thank you. We will take the next question from the line of Abhishek Khanna from Kotak Securities. Please go ahead.

Hi, Rajat. I just wanted to check for the Manesar launch that you did in the current quarter, what was the contribution to your sales? 1.5 million square feet that you launched.

I can get you the exact number, but it was closer to 700-800 odd crores was the kind of PCLC we recorded out of the Manesar project. I cannot give clearly that number, but it was meaningful sales which has happened.

Sure. I just want to understand, was this plotted developments, industrial plots, what exactly was this in the form of?

In the form of as in?

Are these low-rise apartments that you sold or were these plots that you sold, the 7-800 crores that you are talking of in Manesar?

So, Abhishek, see, we have done two large township launches during this nine months span. So, in the Sohna Market, the project is called DAXIN, wherein we launched two separate products. One is, you know, low-rise independent floors by the name of DAXIN Vistas. And second is industrial plots just adjoining to it. So, it's a fairly large, very well sort of planned development just on the periphery of Gurgaon. So, the housing in DAXIN is something which we are developing and selling, whereas industrial plots are just being sold as plots. These are developed plots with basic infrastructure being laid out by the company and the development is expected to be done by the consumer. The second project which we launched in Manesar is called City of Colors. Again, fairly large, about 129 acres. In that market, we have just sold it as plots, whether they be for residential use or industrial use. We are going to do only basic infrastructure development and sell it.

Got it. Just one more clarification on this Manesar. While you say the land piece is about 150 acres, the launch potential or the development potential, there is about 2 million square feet. That seems fairly low on FSI less than even half if I think, right? Is there something that I am calculating wrong or is that how it is?

Because we are just selling it as plots, Abhishek. We are not developing it. Hence, that's the plotted…

The size will be lower than half or so.

That's the plotted land potential, no? That's without any development taking place. And within that project, as we speak, during the nine-month period, our sale was about 920-odd crores from just sale of plots. We are not going to develop any area on top of these plots. And that's why the FSI potential is low from a company perspective.

But just for clarification, is the FSI potential not 1 is to 1, as in 43,500 into 1? Is that not how it should be? Or is it even...

No, you lay out basic infrastructure, no? So, on a per acre basis, depending on efficiency of the plot, you will not get more than, let's say, 3,100 to 3,200 odd square yards. So, out of 4,840 square yards per acre, you will probably be able to sell plots which will be in that range of 3,000 to 3,200 yards. The rest of the area will go in circulation and services.

Got it. Thank you. That is helpful. The second question that I had was Sohna. Do you have the approvals for launching the fourth floor or are we still awaiting clarity on that front?

No, the policy is absolutely clear and we have those approvals in place.

Got it. And have we also started selling those four floors in the launched area that we have?

Absolutely yes.

Okay, perfect. And the last one that I had, for all the approvals that you spoke of in the next six to nine months, which includes 37 and 71, do you already have approvals for any of them? Are these extensions of already approved projects or would you require RERA approvals for all of them separately?

So, RERA approvals are, of course, required. But we are at fairly advanced stages of approval. So, like both of these projects in Gurgaon context, you know, they are licensed projects, you know, at very advanced stages of planning and approvals. So, given the stage we are, we are very confident, you know, that these launches will happen in a short one or two quarters, we will be able to launch these projects.

Okay, perfect. That is helpful. Thanks a lot.

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Ayushi, an individual investor. Please go ahead.

Hi, sir. So, while you have already touched upon this to a certain extent, my question to you is that with the change in government, what impact do you anticipate on your operations and the overall ease of doing business in the real estate sector? And given the evolving policy landscape, how would you expand it to the Delhi geography? And what key policy or regulatory changes would you request from the government to support your growth in this new geography?

So, Ayushi, thanks for the question. So, see, as far as the Gurgaon market is concerned, you know, there is nothing new or nothing different which we anticipate. The policy framework is quite clear in terms of kinds of development which can take place in the Gurgaon market. So, whatever land we currently own, we have a plan in place on how to develop it or to put it into production. What has changed? Now, since land is a state subject, you know, every state has its own set of bylaws as far as the development of land-related policies are concerned. And Delhi being a separate state, but the situation is that, you know, in Delhi, for any new development-related policies to come into force, there is a role of both central government as well as the state government. Now the opportunity here is that since we have the same, you know, party ruling the center as well as the state, the anticipation of the market is that Delhi should see rightful regulatory changes in the policy framework so that real estate development becomes more feasible or doable. And that's where the opportunity lies. So, once that takes shape, see, Delhi is such a popular state and if you have visited or been in Delhi, there have been very few newer developments which have happened within Delhi. So, there is availability of land. You know, there is a lot of urban consumer who is kind of, you know, staying within Delhi. One needs to have the rightful framework to develop a product. So, that link is missing, which, you know, we all are hoping that will start taking shape.

So, sir, there is enough opportunity for everyone, even with the competition that you will probably see in Delhi being the capital.

We do expect competition in the market.

Okay. And how do we plan on dealing with that?

So, see, Ayushi, we are sitting in this market. We have a lot of competence and capability right from the start of identifying land till the time of handing over keys to our customer. So, every key step, we are very well-poised. We have probably the best of teams to kind of handle that situation. We are today almost close to 1,200-odd people working with Signature. So, you know, local and real estate somewhere, you know, does is kind of, you know, localized business, you know, understanding customer preferences, understanding customer needs, ability to create supply to address those needs. You know, a lot of that understanding is very localized. And since we have good capabilities, we are fairly confident to work on this opportunity. So, it's very early to kind of anticipate a lot of competition and start fearing it. It's almost the other way around that there is such a big opportunity. We feel that if a lot of people participate, there is work for quite a few players to work on that opportunity.

Okay, sir. Thank you. Thank you and all the best for your next phase.

Thank you.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, as there are no further questions, we now conclude the Q&A session. Thank you, members of the management. On behalf of ICICI Securities, that concludes this conference. We thank you for joining us and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.